China's 2019 GDP was $14.34 trillion

[KungFuLee]

I mean 'supposedly'.

I think he will stay for another term since there's no apparent successor in the Politburo at the moment.

Think he will be too old for the job if he stay another term. He's is now 65 (Or about that age?)

 

[Mista]

too old for the job

 

[Goku]

Or the great Robert Mugabe

 

[The Accountant]

Wow, so how many people outside CN bought Hwei 5G phone ?? Below 1%.

Why ?? Cos 5G mean Nothing when the phones dont have Google.

Thats why its too hard for Cnese to get jobs wt 1,000usd/month whie their living cost is already 800 usd/month.CN already falled into Middle income trap.

You have no idea what are you talking about.

5G is not the current technology its the technology of future and not even designed by any country other than China. What was google 2 decades back? There was almost no google but now google is everything.

Similarly if China bring in the 5th generation and other countries start adopting it, google will be obsolete. 5G is not about phone but its about bringing everything on your phone. Your TV, AC, Washing Machine, Laptop access, automated car, garrage door and any other electronic item you can think off will be connected with your phone. So essentially 5G connectivity of all smart devices (which are only yet made by China) are the future.

In future even office plant and machinery will be connected through 5G.

Actually no.

5G is an international standard, you cannot be "Ahead", there are no US Standard nor China Standard either, they are the same "Standard" that's why they are called "Standard" It's like saying there is a standard for China 4G and then there are a standard for rest of world 4G standard. If that is the case, a phone I buy from China would not be able to use in Australia because that is a different Standard, and vice versa. And I am using a phone I bought in Shenzhen in Australia.

China leading the production value of 5G equipment, but majority of 5G patent was hold between US and South Korea

You are factually incorrect. First you are saying 5G is standard and accessible to everyone then why bringing in the patent discussions? both things cant work togather.

You are right that most of the equipment are bieng build in China but wrong about patent. If that would be the case then rather than going in trade war and risking global economy, pissing out europe and threatening Germany, USA and Korea could just call in the patents and 5G leadership would have been transferred from Huawei to CISCO.

5G is not just phone network but its a new generation of electronic products. You are right that it is a standard but when all other countries specially US giants like CISCO are far behind in making devices supporting 5G China has actually isntalled the network and has start producing smart devices capable to connect with 5G network. Altough others would follow-up as well but China is atleast 5 years ahead from all others and they will have the first movers advantage.

If Chinese strategy meet success there is a risk that google will be replaced by some Chinese software to connect the world. All the trade war on the front is to stop China achieving that feet as it will replace US technology monopoly.

 

[Paul2]

The reason why Xi is perfect for the time he was in the reign (last decade) is because the majority of Chinese growth is from industrial sector and manufacturing sector. Xi was pretty good at this due to his academic background.

No, most growth came from explosive growth of the service sector, with a lot of it being in domestic market.

As a person who worked in manufacturing in and out of China since 2007, I can say that manufacturing actually peaked right after the global financial crisis, and been in unending decline since then.

Altough pace has increased. Relaity is china has now shift its focus from low margin consumer goods to high tech goods. They are market leaders in electronics robotics and 5G.

However, that ship cannot ride forever, and from the US-China Trade war, we can see that once that sector into tipping point (which is now) it is basically can be use as a weapon to attack China

China right now need market specialist as well as economist, because China need to divert to tertiary economy so if Trump pull another stunt like that, China can have something to fall back on.

Strange statements. Differentiated, high end, niche products with longs supply chains are far more "fragile" than mainline light industry goods. There are few consumers for them, and most of them are in the West.

Tertiary economy is even worse on that. A frequently quoted point: "It's easier to find a way how to manufacture a widget 10 times more efficiently, than double the economic output of a management consultant"

Beijing higher ups only began to care about manufacturing when it finally hit them that the services sector has stalled hard, and the real economy can no longer grow in it.

Light industry exports is by far the easiest growth option, unimpedable by anything USA can do besides a real war. Clothing, household wares, appliances, consumer electronics is something that pretty much everybody everybody in the world need, can be produced by megatons, has no real "ceiling" on productivity other than the cost of raw materials, and can employ virtually unlimited amount of people.

USA is only 20% of our export market, while it consumes the lion share of our industrial capacity. China can make way more money from reorienting the light industry from USA, than by continuing to sell to US.

Guangzhou is packed full of Nigerian multimillionaires who do nothing more complicated than selling stuff like clothing, and household wares to Africa. Duan Yongping became a billionaire long before anybody in USA knew who he was by making exports to 3rd world countries. I can continue this for all eternity.

What impedes Chinese companies on that front is their inexcusable laziness. Chinese marketing and salesmanship is laughably bad, but our laobans seem to be fine with that because Americans were such undemanding buyers.

 

[The Accountant]

No, most growth came from explosive growth of the service sector, with a lot of it being in domestic market.

As a person who worked in manufacturing in and out of China since 2007, I can say that manufacturing actually peaked right after the global financial crisis, and been in unending decline since then.


Strange statements. Differentiated, high end, niche products with longs supply chains are far more "fragile" than mainline light industry goods. There are few consumers for them, and most of them are in the West.

Tertiary economy is even worse on that. A frequently quoted point: "It's easier to find a way how to manufacture a widget 10 times more efficiently, than double the economic output of a management consultant"

Beijing higher ups only began to care about manufacturing when it finally hit them that the services sector has stalled hard, and the real economy can no longer grow in it.

Light industry exports is by far the easiest growth option, unimpedable by anything USA can do besides a real war. Clothing, household wares, appliances, consumer electronics is something that pretty much everybody everybody in the world need, can be produced by megatons, has no real "ceiling" on productivity other than the cost of raw materials, and can employ virtually unlimited amount of people.

USA is only 20% of our export market, while it consumes the lion share of our industrial capacity. China can make way more money from reorienting the light industry from USA, than by continuing to sell to US.

Guangzhou is packed full of Nigerian multimillionaires who do nothing more complicated than selling stuff like clothing, and household wares to Africa. Duan Yongping became a billionaire long before anybody in USA knew who he was by making exports to 3rd world countries. I can continue this for all eternity.

What impedes Chinese companies on that front is their inexcusable laziness. Chinese marketing and salesmanship is laughably bad, but our laobans seem to be fine with that because Americans were such undemanding buyers.

Yes but dont u see that these products require cheap labor and focusing on these product only means the general population of china will remain poor so they are shifting manufacturing plant of such products to low income countries like vitenam bagladesh india and pakistan

 

[KungFuLee]

No, most growth came from explosive growth of the service sector, with a lot of it being in domestic market.

As a person who worked in manufacturing in and out of China since 2007, I can say that manufacturing actually peaked right after the global financial crisis, and been in unending decline since then.

Well, not according to Investopedia.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/103114/chinas-gdp-examined-servicesector-surge.asp

It was suggested that the GDP is equally spited between Service Sector and Industrial Sector in end of 2013 (The article was written in 2014 and Xi took control in 2013. So when he is still in charge it was nearly even split. Yes, Service sector was almost doubled but that was not because of Xi, that was because of Hu Jingto

Evident show, Xi was not a good economic reformer, because by 2018, it hasn't changed much

https://www.statista.com/statistics...product-gdp-across-economic-sectors-in-china/

If you compare both, you can see in 2013, Chinese GDP wrt Service Sector is 46%, and it as 52% in 2018.

But then, you live in China, and you may call these number wrong. I don't know.

Strange statements. Differentiated, high end, niche products with longs supply chains are far more "fragile" than mainline light industry goods. There are few consumers for them, and most of them are in the West.

Tertiary economy is even worse on that. A frequently quoted point: "It's easier to find a way how to manufacture a widget 10 times more efficiently, than double the economic output of a management consultant"

Beijing higher ups only began to care about manufacturing when it finally hit them that the services sector has stalled hard, and the real economy can no longer grow in it.

Light industry exports is by far the easiest growth option, unimpedable by anything USA can do besides a real war.

USA is only 20% of our export market, while it consumes the lion share of our industrial capacity. China can make way more money from reorienting the light industry from USA, than by continuing to sell to US.

Guangzhou is packed full of Nigerian multimillionaires who do nothing more complicated than selling stuff like clothing, and household wares to Africa. Duan Yongping became a billionaire long before anybody in USA knew who he was by making exports to 3rd world countries. I can continue this for all eternity.

What impedes Chinese companies on that front is their inexcusable laziness. Chinese marketing and salesmanship is laughably bad, but our laobans seem to be fine with that because Americans were such undemanding buyers.

Well, you cannot ride high on secondary sector forever, first it was too vulnerable to be attacked (Just as the trade war show us) and secondly, you cannot keep the balance book right, by increasing standard and quality, you increase price, and each industry evolved mean the cost to do business have go up one notch, and evident show there are surge in secondary sector across all of ASEAN.

You need a good financial market to have a say in international monetary policy, without that, you cannot guarantee a steady growth in your GDP, many country have tired it, US, Japan, even Hong Kong (Where secondary industry boom after WW2 and dying out in the 80s.)

You are factually incorrect. First you are saying 5G is standard and accessible to everyone then why bringing in the patent discussions? both things cant work togather.

You are right that most of the equipment are bieng build in China but wrong about patent. If that would be the case then rather than going in trade war and risking global economy, pissing out europe and threatening Germany, USA and Korea could just call in the patents and 5G leadership would have been transferred from Huawei to CISCO.

5G is not just phone network but its a new generation of electronic products. You are right that it is a standard but when all other countries specially US giants like CISCO are far behind in making devices supporting 5G China has actually isntalled the network and has start producing smart devices capable to connect with 5G network. Altough others would follow-up as well but China is atleast 5 years ahead from all others and they will have the first movers advantage.

If Chinese strategy meet success there is a risk that google will be replaced by some Chinese software to connect the world. All the trade war on the front is to stop China achieving that feet as it will replace US technology monopoly.

4G is an international standard (we know, because we are using it now) but that does not mean 4G does not have patent...

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/23/lte_patent_pie/

And I am not wrong about patent either. The world number 1 patent holder in 5G SEP Patent is Samsung (Which is different than normal patent because it have to be standard-essential patent.)

https://www.iam-media.com/who-leading-5g-patent-race

Now, I have seen some data about how many patent Huawei hold, but mostly they are application (so patent pending) or peripherical patent that have nothing to do with Standard-wise technology

https://www.iam-media.com/who-leading-5g-patent-race-july-2019-update-part-one

It states that Huawei filed the most patent, but most were not granted as of June 2019.

And in case you are wondering, US beat China to roll out citywide 5G network (not a trial one) by 6 months, China claim first successful commercial 5G operation in November 2019, US first tried 5G in Atlanta in May/June and nationwide rolled out has already done in December 2019 by T-Mobile. While China is looking at national wide 5G roll out in end of 2020

https://adage.com/article/digital/t...ionwide-5g-rolls-out-holiday-ad-blitz/2219216

https://venturebeat.com/2019/12/23/...r-all-prefecture-level-cities-by-end-of-2020/

I am not even going to comment on how China will replace Google, that is a different set of ecology.

 

[KungFuLee]

Or this dude

 

[Mista]

Or this dude

View attachment 600846

I wanted to include Trump at first, but he's younger than Mahathir like 20 years lol.

 

[Viet]

1. Living in a better piece of a real estate. A 100m² condominium flat of equal quality to ones you can get in tier 1 cities in China costs $5-8k a month in US, and 2-3 times less in China.
   
   For the price of a luxury rental in US best cities, you can afford to live in a serviced apartment pretty much permanently here https://www.trip.com/hotels/cityname-hotel-detail-29859506/xianglai-executive-apartment https://www.trip.com/hotels/Shenzhen-hotel-detail-22822415/ But if you want to buy... that's another story.
2. Driving a better car. On the cost-quality ratio, local high-end market sedans give you Benz E-Class experience at only $20-30k. You can't find anything like that in US. And yeah, Buick sucks, I have no idea why locals obsess so much over them.
3. Can eat out every day. Real restaurant quality food in US is what I can afford here every day.
4. Medical and other insurance that beat anything USA has on the table 20 times over. It's not as cheap as in Europe, and Chinese medical services far from the best, but still.
   
   A maxed out serious illness coverage including oncology for 50+ person here costs $500-$700 a month for somebody with good financial history, and is going down. Totally affordable if you saved as a high incomer your entire life.
   
   For $100-200 a month, you can have coverage for pretty much anything you can get as a healthy person under 40.
5. Travel and recreation that is simply not there in US. All of SE Asia is within 6-7 hours of flight.
6. Electronic gizmos that are cheap like dirt
7. Just any imaginable non-perishable goods that is considered "high-end" in US cost less here, largely thanks to Taobao
8. Life in a good city is priceless! Find me anything approaching Shenzhen in US! Architecture, infrastructure, social facilities, recreation, greenery, transport, culture and social dynamics here are outstanding. San Francisom is a city sized dumpster fire, and a total hillbilly town in comparison... SF must be levelled to the ground and rebuilt from scratch to fix it. The only cities in North America that are somehow passable for me are Vancouver, and Miami, and they will still be light years away from SZ.

I meant individual incomes.

There is Chinatown in every major city in the States. If you prefer Viet foods, you can look for Little Saigon.

San José, San Diego, Westminster, Houston, Chinago, etc
there are many to count.
People don’t cook anymore, they buy ready to eat foods and bring home.
Everything you want.
Cheap and delicious.
some are better than Vietnam

 

[KungFuLee]

I wanted to include Trump at first, but he's younger than Mahathir like 20 years lol.

lol.....true, I think the only one in the same league is the Queen, but I don't think she is the "Head of State" even though she is the Head of State

 

[Viet]

You have no idea what are you talking about.

5G is not the current technology its the technology of future and not even designed by any country other than China. What was google 2 decades back? There was almost no google but now google is everything.

Similarly if China bring in the 5th generation and other countries start adopting it, google will be obsolete. 5G is not about phone but its about bringing everything on your phone. Your TV, AC, Washing Machine, Laptop access, automated car, garrage door and any other electronic item you can think off will be connected with your phone. So essentially 5G connectivity of all smart devices (which are only yet made by China) are the future.

In future even office plant and machinery will be connected through 5G.



You are factually incorrect. First you are saying 5G is standard and accessible to everyone then why bringing in the patent discussions? both things cant work togather.

You are right that most of the equipment are bieng build in China but wrong about patent. If that would be the case then rather than going in trade war and risking global economy, pissing out europe and threatening Germany, USA and Korea could just call in the patents and 5G leadership would have been transferred from Huawei to CISCO.

5G is not just phone network but its a new generation of electronic products. You are right that it is a standard but when all other countries specially US giants like CISCO are far behind in making devices supporting 5G China has actually isntalled the network and has start producing smart devices capable to connect with 5G network. Altough others would follow-up as well but China is atleast 5 years ahead from all others and they will have the first movers advantage.

If Chinese strategy meet success there is a risk that google will be replaced by some Chinese software to connect the world. All the trade war on the front is to stop China achieving that feet as it will replace US technology monopoly.

What a nonsense!

5g is just one of the many transmission technology. 5g is expensive, has many limitations.

Wifi 6 or 7 is superior to 5g. Plus cheaper and greater range.

Some people push 5g because of marketing.

Coca Cola is a terrible drink but thanks to marketing Cola seems to be the greatest drink ever in this universe. Sugar cane drink is much healthier and cheaper, but nobody likes it.

 

[Paul2]

It show, Xi was not a good economic reformer, because by 2018, it hasn't changed much.

A lot of economic management decisions attributed to Xi are actually Li's doing.

Economy was not Xi's domain to begin with, as he has no expertise in economics whatsoever. Li was in charge of that until Xi sidelined him in his second term.

The current schizophrenic messaging on what to do with SOE is a result of that: decisions acted on remainings of Li's policy are all for downscaling SOEs role, and cleaning them up, and decisions acted on Xi's policy are to enlarge, and throw even more money on them.

you cannot ride high on secondary sector forever

Yes, you can, or at least you can last on it way longer than on anything else, and there are a lot of solid arguments behind this statement.

by increasing standard and quality, you increase price,

Technological development increases productivity, not fixed price

it was too vulnerable to be attacked (Just as the trade war show us)

No, it's by far the more robust export around. I'm 100% sure that even in the worst economic crisis, people around the world will still be buying clothing, essential wares, and household goods. The fact that our electronics industry peaked few years after the economic crisis, despite our exports to USA shrinking, is the most direct proof to that.

The state was never keen supporting the manufacturing industry, up until the point where they saw that our tertiary economy turned into a dumpster fire after many stock and bond market bubbles, along with that spilling over into asset bubbles. It's pretty much the only sector of economy that works "as intended," and have prospects for some growth.

Remember, Guangdong government bulldozed 12000 factories in between 2010-2012 because they all wanted to build their hotels, malls, and luxury real estate that stands empty till today.

Only when they saw crushing digits of economic statistics for those years, they understood what a blunder they made: they slaughtered a hen laying golden eggs for a single lunch! They chopped the tree branch they were sitting on!

Only now, when they tried every other option to spur the moribund economy, they turn back to trying to resuscitate the domestic manufacturing sector.

 

[KungFuLee]

A lot of economic management decisions attributed to Xi are actually Li's doing.

Economy was not Xi's domain to begin with, as he has no expertise in economics whatsoever. Li was in charge of that until Xi sidelined him in his second term.

The current schizophrenic messaging on what to do with SOE is a result of that: decisions acted on remainings of Li's policy are all for downscaling SOEs role, and cleaning them up, and decisions acted on Xi's policy are to enlarge, and throw even more money on them.

Not sure who to blame, but if I have to pick, this is Xi's fault, unless you claim Li is the shadow government of China.

It wouldn't work if China uses Singapore approach on SOE, because the business ethnic of the SOE in China.

[quote[
Yes, you can, or at least you can last on it way longer than on anything else, and there are a lot of solid arguments behind this statement.

Actually, no you can't, if the world teach us anything, it lasted around 10-15 years, that's it, after that it would be overcooking it. The reason why China can last longer than the other is because China is a big country, they can move around and shift thing around within China without any major impact.

On the other hand, Japan try to extend its industrial phase by promoting High Tech Manufacturing, and Automation, but well, that almost destroyed their economy. And China cant literally do that because China have a big population to feed, a lot bigger than the Japanese.

Technological development increases productivity, not fixed price

Not sure what do you mean by that.

No, it's by far the more robust export around. I'm 100% sure that even in the worst economic crisis, people around the world will still be buying clothing, essential wares, and household goods. The fact that our electronics industry peaked few years after the economic crisis, despite our exports to USA shrinking, is the most direct proof to that.

The state was never keen supporting the manufacturing industry, up until the point where they saw that our tertiary economy turned into a dumpster fire after many stock and bond market bubbles, along with that spilling over into asset bubbles. It's pretty much the only sector of economy that works "as intended," and have prospects for some growth.

Remember, Guangdong government bulldozed 12000 factories in between 2010-2012 because they all wanted to build their hotels, malls, and luxury real estate that stands empty till today.

Only when they saw crushing digits of economic statistics for those years, they understood what a blunder they made: they slaughtered a hen laying golden eggs to make a lunch! They chopped the tree branch they were sitting on!

Only now, when they tried every other option, they turn back to trying to resuscitate the domestic manufacturing sector.

You need to know, what happened to China in 2008 economic crisis is that Manufacturing sector is booming, and that is one big reason why China was not dragged down by the economic crisis, because back them there aren't much of a service sector to have crisis in China.

You are talking about 2020 now, if you wonder how much change to industrial environment, let me tell you this. in 2008, my family can get a Chinese Washing Machine for less than 2000 HKD, today, you need to pay $4000, where a Samsung cost only around $4500, and a European one is about $5500, the gap between Chinese product is catching Japanese or European, and the only thing people don't stop buying Chinese is because it is still relatively cheap and there are no alternative. But if Indian or Vietnamese or even Indonesia Brand come along which is half the price to the Chinese one, which is what the Chines brand did to the Japanese and Western Brand. Chinese product would need to compete with premium range and no longer a budget range. And seriously, do you think China can beat European and Japanese brand on Premium level?

About the Stock Market in China, this is a joke. You cannot promote stock market if the government control it. Any meaningful push toward service sector have to accompanied by free market. And without that, that would be a joke.

The thing is, at this stage, you cannot expand if you don't reform the service sector.

 

[mike2000 is back]

I am not saying it is fake, there a jewels in the economy just like soviet system had technological jewels, but the economy now is essentially a casino.

Whatever you believe. You should just eb aware that even China is still striving to reach the level of the U.S in a few decades. So.....