China's 2019 GDP was $14.34 trillion

[Paul2]

He changed the Chinese constitution ,now theres no 2 term limits. @beijingwalker chinese members know better

There were no term limits on the party secretary position to start with.

Even in the party's unwritten rules, there is nothing saying that a chairman of the state must be a party head, and such situation is not unprecedented. Wang was instated as a vice chairman without a cabinet or politburo seat. Though the motive was far from altruistic — to deny that seat to anybody with potential claims on power, and Wang was just a convenient man for that.

Xi is correct to rein in the debt though, even if that caused a dramatic slowdown in the Chinese economy. China's economic growth under Hu, especially after the Global Financial Crisis, is unsustainable and too reckless.

Do you think anything changed since Hu on that front? I think it did, but not in the direction you imagine. Well performing regions repay their debts with ease, and actually are better off now on debts than in Hu's era despite debt expansion, but poorly ran regions try to copy that blindly, and bury themselves in debt even further. Google Guizhou

My biggest concern is Xi trying to go back to the the state company economy.
He is trying to suppress private companies and support state companies.
That's end of China miracle.

Xi was never a reformer from the start, he himself said so very early on. Early on, he focused narrowly on just wanting to surpass the Soviet Union's record, and everything else was second. And after some lull after it became clear that the prophesied crisis is not coming, he, I think, caught himself thinking "I really don't know what to do next."

It is very visible after the peak of anti corruption purge passed. His agenda got quite random: ecology, obor, Xiongan and dozen more things far from being essential to the country. I think he just want to keep bureaucracy occupied, while he sorts out what to do next.

I remember reading before that Xi is interested in Singapore's state-capitalist model, where SOEs are infused with private capital which operates on market principles and allows it to be transparent and efficient. Part of the profits then goes back to the state for fiscal spending every year, instead into the pockets of many billionaires in many other countries.

I can say that something like been already the case for best performing SOEs long ago. The issue is with a part of them that never did well. They could've been reformed easily... if the political will was there.

This list could be further expanded, for example:
- China produces 40% of the civil marine vessels of global total
- China produces >80% of the large naval battleships (10 large destroyers launched by China in 2019)
- China produces 1/4~1/3 of the passenger vehicles globally
- China produces 1/3 of the construction equipment globally
- China produces 1/3 of the trucks and buses globally

But China's GDP is only 15% of global total. Interesting.

China's growth depends strongly on the global growth now. There is not enough consumers for our industry at home, in US, and in the entire world. Only if the developing world economies will step up their consumption, will we see further growth. There is nothing the state can do about that.

That's why I keep saying Xi should go this year, China needs a new generation of younger leaders.

I feel that Xi has finally started backing off in recent months. A wave of new appointments from September to December were certainly not Xi's type of people. The anti corruption people have been toned down too. There are no 10 inspections per month nonsense anymore, as I heard from my classmates on government jobs. Xi also got very quiet about the trade "deal," he no longer meets Trump himself, and dispatches Liu, who is about to retire, instead.

Is he losing power? No, not even 1% of it. At this point there is not a single politician on the horizon in the party who can challenge him before 2022. Even if he will sit and do nothing for the next 2 years, his system, and political legacy is secure past 2022.

What is really unpredictable now is what will happen after Xi will be truly gone from the political scene. Just like after Brezhnev kicked the bucket, there is no telling who and how will come with claims to power.

The real challenge to Xi's legacy is the lack of such: Xi didn't come from some political clan. Xi is a solo player with good network among previous generation elites who now came off the scene. He is very cautious in his appointment choices, just like Brezhnev was. A lot of his closest aides are his friends from not even his youth or university years, but childhood.

He don't have a big selection of cadres he can choose from. His first circle is basically Wang Shaojun, Li Zhanshu, Liu He, and Wang Qishan.

But who knows... Even Hu, despite him being rather weak politically, was said to have almost secured the political succession on his terms, but it all went broke literally within month from his last plenum.

Even now, with Xi being the most powerful man in the party, it doesn't mean him being "all powerful." One thing, people greatly overstate the amount of things Xi has his hand in, and Chinese state and the CPC, and the gigantic bureaucracy have their own dynamics, not which is not entirely set in Zhongnanhai.

 

[Viva_Viet]

There were no term limits on the party secretary position to start with.

Even in the party's unwritten rules, there is nothing saying that a chairman of the state must be a party head, and such situation is not unprecedented. Wang was instated as a vice chairman without a cabinet or politburo seat. Though the motive was far from altruistic — to deny that seat to anybody with potential claims on power, and Wang was just a convenient man for that.

Do you think anything changed since Hu on that front? I think it did, but not in the direction you imagine. Well performing regions repay their debts with ease, and actually are better off now on debts than in Hu's era despite debt expansion, but poorly ran regions try to copy that blindly, and bury themselves in debt even further.

Xi was never a reformer from the start, he himself said so very early on. Early on, he focused narrowly on just wanting to surpass the Soviet Union's record, and everything else was second. And after some lull after it became clear that the prophesied crisis is not coming, he, I think, caught himself thinking "I really don't know what to do next."

It is very visible after the peak of anti corruption purge passed. His agenda got quite random: ecology, obor, Xiongan and dozen more things far from being essential to the country. I think he just want to keep bureaucracy occupied, while he sorts out what to do next.

I can say that something like been already the case for best performing SOEs long ago. The issue is with a part of them that never did well. They could've been reformed easily... if the political will was there.

China's growth depends strongly on the global growth now. There is not enough consumers for our industry at home, in US, and in the entire world. Only if the developing world economies will step up their consumption, will we see further growth. There is nothing the state can do about that.

I feel that Xi has finally started backing off in recent months. A wave of new appointments from September to December were certainly not Xi's type of people. The anti corruption people have been toned down too. There are no 10 inspections per month nonsense anymore, as I heard from my classmates on government jobs. Xi also got very quiet about the trade "deal," he no longer meets Trump himself, and dispatches Liu, who is about to retire, instead.

Is he losing power? No, not even 1% of it. At this point there is not a single politician on the horizon in the party who can challenge him before 2022. Even if he will sit and do nothing for the next 2 years, his system, and political legacy is secure past 2022.

What is really unpredictable now is what will happen after Xi will be truly gone from the political scene. Just like after Brezhnev kicked the bucket, there is no telling who and how will come with claims to power.

The real challenge to Xi's legacy is the lack of such: Xi didn't come from some political clan. Xi is a solo player with good network among previous generation elites who now came off the scene. He is very cautious in his appointment choices, just like Brezhnev was. A lot of his closest aides are his friends from not even his youth or university years, but childhood.

He don't have a big selection of cadres he can choose from. His first circle is basically Wang Shaojun, Li Zhanshu, Liu He, and Wang Qishan.

But who knows... Even Hu, despite him being rather weak politically, was said to have almost secured the political succession on his terms, but it all went broke literally within month from his last plenum.

Told u guys many times already, Xi is just like Gaddafi and CN is just like Lybia before color revolt.

Gadaffi is rich and no one could challenge him, Lybia is also not poor cos they hire lots of foreign workers to work for them. Lybia GDP per cpt was also around 10,000 usd like CN.

But just like Lybia, the fatal problem of CN is that the bosses can not pay upto 1,000 usd/month for Cnese employee anymore cos that salary is too high. So, many Cnese r actually jobless like Lybian when the bosses use foreign workers and only pay 350-450usd/month.

CN living cos seem even highher than I though ( I though its abt 450-550 but its must be more than 800 usd if u have a child), so million Cnese employee are falling into middle income trap and No chance to get out of it ( cant work wt just 350 usd/month). So, chaos and color revolt is coming so close to CN like in Lybia now when million Cnese cant survive in very high living cost now while its too hard to find a job that having salary abt 1,000usd /month

 

[Mista]

China's growth depends strongly on the global growth now. There is not enough consumers for our industry at home, in US, and in the entire world. Only if the developing world economies will step up their consumption, will we see further growth. There is nothing the state can do about that.

At the moment only China's consumption market can grow meaningfully to boost domestic and global growth, with the scale and potential.

The US and the EU have a larger consumption market but they already are a high mature market.

Other economies are too small to make a difference in the near future.

Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) by country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets

 

[Dungeness]

China Adds Economy the Size of Mexico

China just added the World's No. 15 largest economy into its GDP last year, or 4 Vietman's.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

It highly depends on how the government can restrain itself from meddling the market.
I have zero confidence on China gov about this.

The best way for China is free market competition.
Almost all the successful China companies(mean can compete outside of China) in last 2 decades are private companies.

China's SOE got all those responsibilities and duties that the private enterprises will never have.

Thank to China's SOE, China has not become a banana republic.

If you think that China's private enterprise can handle those multi-trillions infrastructure project, then you must not understand the society of the Mainland China at all.

 

[Dungeness]

China's SOE got all those responsibilities and duties that the private enterprises will never have.

Thank to China's SOE, China has not become a banana republic.

If you think that China's private enterprise can handle those multi-trillions infrastructure project, then you must not understand the society of the Mainland China at all.

No to mention China's SOE forms the backbone of Chinese Social Security System.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2019-11/16/c_1125238605.htm

 

[mike2000 is back]

That's why I keep saying Xi should go this year, China needs a new generation of younger leaders.

Hmmm....don't think that's feasible. Since Xi Jinping already removed term limits. So only he can tell when he will cede power to a younger generation. So it all depends on his own his will unlike his predecessors who depended on party rules which they had to follow. So we can all just hope he won't also become power hungry like most leaders who had too much power and thus naturally (obviously I will say, it's a human trait) became power hungry and hang on for decades. Putin comes to mind( just one of many examples).

 

[mike2000 is back]

Thats true, CN economy is so terrible under Trump's tariff now. The bosses can not pay 600usd/month for Cnese workers anymore and have to employ foreign workers that accept 350-400usd/month and thats make million Cnese r becoming jobless ( living cost in CN is abt 450 usd/month now, so they cant work if salary is lower than 550usd

Hmmmm .....you say similar things on most threads here. Might be better to contribute to the topic at hand using a different line that the one you always use.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Hmmmm .....you say similar things on most threads here. Might be better to contribute to the topic at hand using a different line that the one you always use.

Bcs Middle income trap like in Lybia explain all problems CN r facing now ( low birth rate, bad economy, hard to find job when GDP per cpt is 10,000usd).

So, they (Cnese) should open less threads instead.

And u r also funny, u dont mind reading same threads from Cnese poster, but complaining while I use middle income trap to explain all CN problems ??

 

[PeacefulWar]

China's SOE got all those responsibilities and duties that the private enterprises will never have.

Thank to China's SOE, China has not become a banana republic.

If you think that China's private enterprise can handle those multi-trillions infrastructure project, then you must not understand the society of the Mainland China at all.

After implement forcing TOT and joint venture 30 years in car manufacturing industry, those SOE still have near 0 capability to design and innovate. It's the private car companies on the other hand show where is the hope.
SOE can only survive because gov and policy don't allow private companies compete them.
In industry that don't have the such protection SOE can't compete at all. Look at the difference ZTE(SOE) just die when US ban them, now look at Huawei the private company...

Bcs Middle income trap like in Lybia explain all problems CN r facing now ( low birth rate, bad economy, hard to find job when GDP per cpt is 10,000usd).

So, they (Cnese) should open less threads instead.

And u r also funny, u dont mind reading same threads from Cnese poster, but complaining while I use middle income trap to explain all CN problems ??

Middle income trap won't apply to China because Unlike those South America countries, China is almost completely industrialized.
When I got time, I can share a analyst's article about this

 

[Viva_Viet]

After implement forcing TOT and joint venture 30 years in car manufacturing industry, those SOE still have near 0 capability to design and innovate. It's the private car companies on the other hand show where is the hope.
SOE can only survive because gov and policy don't allow private companies compete them.
In industry that don't have the such protection SOE can't compete at all. Look at the difference ZTE(SOE) just die when US ban them, now look at Huawei the private company...


Middle income trap won't apply to China because Unlike those South America countries, China is almost completely industrialized.
When I got time, I can share a analyst's article about this

No nid to share. Just pls tell me what is the living cos exactly in CN big cities ( Shang hai,Beijing ) ?

And how many Cnese employee got job wt 1,000 usd/month when CN GDP per cpt is 10,000 usd now.??

 

[PeacefulWar]

No nid to share. Just pls tell me what is the living cos exactly in CN big cities ( Shang hai,Beijing ) ?

And how many Cnese employee got job wt 1,000 usd/month when CN GDP per cpt is 10,000 usd now.??

You know, it feels strange as a Shanghainess to see a Vietnamese worries about my people's life

China's tier 1 cities attracted millions by millions people from whole nation, you guess how they much earn and spend,lol.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

After implement forcing TOT and joint venture 30 years in car manufacturing industry, those SOE still have near 0 capability to design and innovate. It's the private car companies on the other hand show where is the hope.
SOE can only survive because gov and policy don't allow private companies compete them.
In industry that don't have the such protection SOE can't compete at all. Look at the difference ZTE(SOE) just die when US ban them, now look at Huawei the private company...

Huawei can sustain all those attacks from the US not because it is more powerful than all US companies combined, but it is because Huawei is a Chinese a company.

Since China's SOE backed economy is so powerful, that's why Huawei can survive against all those sanctions from the US.

Without China's state-owned economic being so powerful, Huawei would get destroyed by the US in a blink of an eye.

Why the US wants to destroy China's state-owned economy at any cost?

Because their private owned economy cannot compete against the collectivism of China's state-owned economy.

 

[925boy]

That's why I keep saying Xi should go this year, China needs a new generation of younger leaders.

LOL. CHinese people's congress voted to allow Xi stay in power for as long as he wants, so there is consensus in China for Xi to stay in power, so your opposition to that seems to be the minority in China. To be honest, i dont believe China has a better leader today than Xi. Something you think is an issue due to Xi might be really be something due to timing of China's maturity in the world scene. If your alternative cant do better than the current, then the current is the best and good enough..

The best way for China is free market competition.
Almost all the successful China companies(mean can compete outside of China) in last 2 decades are private companies.

I like free market competition and open market economy, because it is free and natural and lets the invisible market forces balance everything out....naturally......BUUUUUUT....when capitalism AKA "free market competition" goes wild and isnt controlled in at least a few important ways, it easily leads to many haves, and many have nots...that starts to divide society....think of the other side here.

 

[PeacefulWar]

LOL. CHinese people's congress voted to allow Xi stay in power for as long as he wants, so there is consensus in China for Xi to stay in power, so your opposition to that seems to be the minority in China. To be honest, i dont believe China has a better leader today than Xi. Something you think is an issue due to Xi might be really be something due to timing of China's maturity in the world scene. If your alternative cant do better than the current, then the current is the best and good enough..


I like free market competition and open market economy, because it is free and natural and lets the invisible market forces balance everything out....naturally......BUUUUUUT....when capitalism AKA "free market competition" goes wild and isnt controlled in at least a few important ways, it easily leads to many haves, and many have nots...that starts to divide society....think of the other side here.

Hey open market doesn't mean lost control. It's the opposite actually, because gov is not the player anymore, so it can be a better/fair policy maker and executor hence.