China Won't Overtake U.S. as World's Largest Economy: Forecast

[Globenim]

But those are nonimmigrant visas, including tourist and business

lol who got paid or sucked off for that Think Tank: Analyst title of this troll constantly spouting just mindnumbing dumb bullshit thats insulting the intelligence of anyone with just the most basic reading comprehension skills?

 

[Nasr]

Whether China overtakes america as the world's largest economy, is irrelevant.

When a country such as america, being a lone superpower for over a decade, had put itself on the path of self-destruction on 11th September 2001. A country, whose government is more than happy to murder it's own people and put the blame somewhere else. Such a country has no future as a state, let alone a superpower. When regular americans stood by as they watch their own government ... allegedly, "for the people, by the people" bails out Wall Street Parasites at the expense of its tax paying citizens. Such a country, will not survive for long.

Newsweek Magazine can throw out however many numbers at you and chirp on about GDP and other nonsensical statistics. It doesn't discount the fact that america's economy is deteriorating by the day and there is no recovery on the horizon. The reality of america and it's economy is that it has reached the "point of no return." So they can sing at the top of their lungs all they want about how glorious their american empire is. It does not change the $27 trillion in debt, nor does it change the state of 40 million americans unemployed and it also doesn't change that america has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars on Wall Street Parasite's bail out, not does it change the $1 trillion being pumped into the american military machine.

Idiots shall always remain what they truly are ..... Idiots!!!

 

[Capt. Karnage]

Stupid prediction of China overtake this and overtake that. China which copies others and is worst intellectual property rights violator in the world can only keep dreaming, they don't even know why the US is sole superpower in the world. But if global times declares commieland as the sole hyperpower of the universe then it's other thing.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

China's economy is likely to still be the world's second biggest in 2050, trailing the U.S., according to analysis just released.

The prediction by Capital Economics is at odds with a common view that China is set to surpass the U.S. as the world's biggest economy and stay there.

The London-based consultancy forecasts that China's economic clout will not increase steadily relative to the U.S. through time, due in part to its workforce declining by more than 0.5 percent a year by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. workforce will expand over the next 30 years, supported by higher fertility than in China and immigration, it said.

"The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a shrinking workforce prevent China ever passing the U.S.," the analysis said.

The firm's forecast said the pace of economic convergence between the countries depended on what happens to productivity, as well as inflation and the exchange rate. It said that if China does not overtake the U.S. by the mid-2030s "it probably never will."

"And if it does overtake, China may struggle to hold on to first place," it added, although output among Chinese workers is expected to grow faster than in the U.S. after 2030 and income gaps between the countries will also continue to narrow.

Capital Economics' chief Asia economist, Mark Williams, who wrote the analysis, said that China's growth is slowing mainly because leader Xi Jinping has rejected efforts to open up the economy.

"State control of the economy is one aspect of Xi Jinping's belief that the Party should be dominant in all aspects of China's society," he told Newsweek.

"Most people think that China's economic growth will remain much stronger, so overtaking the U.S. is just a matter of time. My view is that China's growth has slowed significantly over the past decade and that this is likely to continue, mainly because productivity growth is declining.

"If it does, China might get close to the U.S. in economic size around 2030, but not overtake."

He said that the "demographic headwinds" would continue to be a drag on China's economy. "There's a chance that China makes it to number one, then falls back again as this demographic drag increases," he added.

Last year, China closed its GDP gap with the U.S., expanding its economy by 2.3 percent to $14.7 trillion. This is only $6.2 trillion less than the American GDP, down from $7.1 trillion in 2019, CNBC reported.

In January, a preliminary estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that American GDP contracted by 2.3 percent last year in current-dollar terms to $20.93 trillion.

Last month, separate analysis suggested that COVID-19 might mean that China's GDP could overtake the U.S. earlier than expected because the American economy had been hit harder by the pandemic. The prediction by the financial group Nomura said that on "reasonable growth projections" China could surpass the U.S. by 2028, CNBC reported.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, agreed China could continue to lag behind the U.S. economy.

"This is possible since average real GDP growth in China could well hover around 2.5 percent in 2035 and onwards, which will mean that China would stop converging with the U.S. and maybe even diverging," she told Newsweek.

"The fall of the labor force is one reason but also decelerating productivity," she added.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-u-s-economy-gdp-capital-economics-1570558

This is JUST speculation and a prediction. A mere OPINION. The reality remains to be seen.

 

[The Accountant]

As I’ve said for some time, even if China were to surpass US GDP in the short term, the US will just pass you again in the mid. Time is on the US side, and it’s great to see other economists catching on.

No basis for the assumptions. Where the economist is accounting for the fertility rate, are they accounting for the shifting from traditional manufacturing to high tech manufacturing which requires less people ?

 

[striver44]

remember this????

in 2011, people are predicting china will overtake the US in 2020, now it's 2021 and china hasn't yet come close to US GDP figures even after the US economy contracts while china's grown.

By 2020, China No. 1, US No. 2

China is on its way to becoming the US of 2020; only the locals won't be making as much as Americans are making despite a larger GDP.

www.forbes.com

 

[Beidou2020]

Looking forward to the day China is 2 or 3 times the size of the US economy. Hopefully by then the American empire will be in the garbage dump of history.

 

[Patriot786b2]

China marks 700 million out of poverty ceremonies watch

 

[Dungeness]

Mao Zedong predicted in 1955, it would take China 75 years to catch up with US GDP. That will be by the end of 15th 5-year plan, 2030.


之后在“在资本主义工商业社会主义改造问题座谈会上的讲话”中更进一步阐述了想法，文本收录在《毛泽东文集：第六卷》：

我们的目标是要赶上美国，并且要超过美国。美国只有一亿多人口，我国有六亿多人口，我们应该赶上美国。李富春[2]同志作过报告，不是说赶上美国不要一百年吗?这个看法我也赞成。究竟要几十年，看大家努力，至少是五十年吧，也许七十五年，七十五年就是十五个五年计划。哪一天赶上美国，超过美国，我们才吐一口气。现在我们不像样子嘛，要受人欺负。我们这么大一个国家，吹起来牛皮很大，历史有几千年，地大物博，人口众多，但是一年才生产二百几十万吨钢，现在才开始造汽车，产量还很少，实在不像样子。所以，全国各界，包括工商界、各民主党派在内，都要努力，把我国建设成为一个富强的国家。我们在整个世界上应该有这个职责。世界上四个人中间就有我们一个人，这么不争气，那不行，我们一定要争这一口气。

 

[Dungeness]

remember this????

in 2011, people are predicting china will overtake the US in 2020, now it's 2021 and china hasn't yet come close to US GDP figures even after the US economy contracts while china's grown.

By 2020, China No. 1, US No. 2

China is on its way to becoming the US of 2020; only the locals won't be making as much as Americans are making despite a larger GDP.

www.forbes.com

The same report predicted Indian GDP would reach $9.6 Trillion:

"India is seen rounding out the top three, taking the place of Japan. India's GDP by 2020 is expected to come in at $9.6 trillion from the $2 trillion a year ago".

So they were 50% off on China, 300% off on India. It's amazing how India managed to stay as a $2+ trillion economy for 10 years?!