China Unlikely to Confront United States Military Intervention in PakistaN

[MrSomnath4477]

The acid test of the substantiveness of Pakistan playing the China Card would lie in the certainty of China militarily intervening to forestall a United States military intervention in Pakistan. The way things are unfolding in Pakistan where the Pakistan Army is ill at ease to adapt to the twin challenges of loss of domestic public support and a trust-deficit with the United States may drive it into an adverse situation where the United States may be egged on by Pakistan Army’s delinquencies to opt for a military intervention in Pakistan to defang Pakistan Army’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

The crucial question to be considered is that in such an eventuality whether China would step in militarily in favor of Pakistan to confront the United States, something which the Pakistan Army would ardently hope for.

Some reputed strategic analysts have opined that if ever there is a war between China and the United Sates it would not be over Taiwan but over Pakistan. It does make a lot of sense for such an assertion when China’s oversized strategic stakes and investments in Pakistan are considered and all those would stand endangered should a United States military intervention against Pakistan ever occur. In terms of strategic eventualities nothing should ever be ruled out.

However there is one major strategic complication for China should it feel inclined or be drawn into a military conflict with the United States over Pakistan. This is that such a military confrontation of China with the United States over Pakistan would not be restricted to South Asian confines. China would then have to be prepared for a two-front war with the United States, the first in Pakistan and South Asia and this situation forcing the United Sates to open a second front in East Asia.

The major military and strategic question is whether China can afford a Two Front War with the United States and that too over Pakistan?

In such a ‘Two Front War’ in which the United States would be pushed into by China, dangers exist of the United States exploiting the simmering unrest in Tibet and Xingjian. Once again I would like to reassert that China has no ‘natural allies’ other than North Korea and Pakistan to stand by its side. The United States has many more options in this regard.

On balance therefore, it would be strategically foolish for China to let Pakistan Army belabor under the strategic impression that it has a substantive China Card to play against the United States. It would still be more foolish for the Pakistan Army to presume that the Islamic World would side with it in such a conflagration against the United States.

Concluding Observations

In the current scenario following the outcry within Pakistan against the Pakistan Army, even implicit references to playing the China Card by Pakistan Army amounts to bluff and bluster. All logical analyses point to the unlikelihood of China honoring any playing of the China Card by the Pakistan Army against the United States.

Within Pakistan there is a lot of discussion that Samuel Huntington’s thesis that the Sinnic Civilization would ally with the Islamic World against the Christian World is coming out true but one wonders whether the outcome would be in favor of the Sinnic Civilization-Islamic World combine and moreso when the Islamic World itself is unlikely to side actively with Pakistan against the United States.

The Pakistan Army has to come to grips with realities of its strategic asymmetries and limitations. Pakistan Army’s nuclear weapons arsenal are neither a “strategic shield” nor a “strategic spear” and nor can China realistically provide a security umbrella as cover for Pakistan’s strategic waywardness especially when directed against the United States.

Pakistan Army’s China Card seemingly is not substantial as China for many years to come would not be able to afford a ‘Two Front War’ with the United States and certainly not over Pakistan.

Pakistan Playing the China Card: How Substantial?

 

[SQ8]

Fairly biased article..

 

[Jango]

The us cannot afford to open another war theater and that too with not third world countries or iraq, but with pakistan. That will cost them and israel alot.

 

[StormShadow]

That will cost them and israel alot.

You forgot to mention India.

 

[footmarks]

The us cannot afford to open another war theater and that too with not third world countries or iraq, but with pakistan. That will cost them and israel alot.

US has already opened that front against pakistan in pakistan. Its just that pakistan has surrendered without a fight.

 

[lem34]

US should take control of pakistan's nuclear weapons for the interest of
mankind which includes india .That would be the only good thing america can do for mankind

Mr Somnath your comments are very provocative. So who decides which states can have nukes and which states cannot. Surely not an individual eg you. it would also be unfair to have one country's government or country decide. The Chinese could very well say Indians shouldnt have nukes. Lots of states are unhappy that Israel has nukes. surely you are not suggesting that brute force should be used?

 

[lem34]

US has already opened that front against pakistan in pakistan. Its just that pakistan has surrendered without a fight.

Is that why they have announced that they are withdrawing troops from our neighbourhood. they can simply not financially afford these misguided adventures.

 

[Jango]

You forgot to mention India.

unless india pokes its nose , no. We cannot destroy us, but we can annhialate israel

 

[footmarks]

Is that why they have announced that they are withdrawing troops from our neighbourhood. they can simply not financially afford these misguided adventures.

They have announced, not done yet. Besides, there is a thread going on here in PDF itself,regarding US refusing to leave airbase inside pakistan. They are bombing at will inside paksitan using airbases in paksitan. What else a war comprised of?

 

[lem34]

They have announced, not done yet. Besides, there is a thread going on here in PDF itself,regarding US refusing to leave airbase inside pakistan. They are bombing at will inside paksitan using airbases in paksitan. What else a war comprised of?

If what you say is true. what could you do pakistan. Your government says it has evidence of pakistani state involvement in Bombay. If we were to accept your assertions then Pakistan has and can send people into india to kill civilins and you cant do anything.

 

[-INDIAN-]

thread title is true no one can argue about it....China cannot and Willnot confront militarily with USA over PAKISTAN....China can and will keep on releasing statements aimed to instigate cautiousness in USA mind regarding pakistan and nothing more than words are possible...but even those words doesnt seem to rattle up USA hence its just nothing beyond words....

 

[footmarks]

If what you say is true. what could you do pakistan. Your government says it has evidence of pakistani state involvement in Bombay. If we were to accept your assertions then Pakistan has and can send people into india to kill civilins and you cant do anything.

True, but try to send a aircraft to bomb some areas inside India and you will know what "needs to be done" in such cases. I remember some years ago, a US Military aircraft carrying military personnel & equipments was forced to land while it was crossing Indian airspace without permission.

 

[ChinaToday]

did we not fought in the korea war against the USA? did we not fought in the vietnam war against the USA?
the different between china and india is simply this india is all mouth and no action.And for china we talk the talk and walk the walk.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

China, or any other country for that matter, may not officially join a war against the US on behalf of Pakistan, but by the same token, depending on how much damage a war between the US and Pakistan could cause regionally, and by extension to the regional/global economy, China and other nations will have a very strong interest in ensuring that such a situation does not come to pass in the first place.

China is focused, currently, first and foremost on economic growth and development. A large part of China's economy depends on raw material imports and Chinese exports. If a US war against Pakistan results in Pakistan spreading the war to Israel, Gulf/Iranian Oil Infrastructure, India etc., then the repercussions on the global economy, and therefore on the Chinese economy, would be significant.

 

[Contrarian]

China, or any other country for that matter, may not officially join a war against the US on behalf of Pakistan, but by the same token, depending on how much damage a war between the US and Pakistan could cause regionally, and by extension to the regional/global economy, China and other nations will have a very strong interest in ensuring that such a situation does not come to pass in the first place.

China is focused, currently, first and foremost on economic growth and development. A large part of China's economy depends on raw material imports and Chinese exports. If a US war against Pakistan results in Pakistan spreading the war to Israel, Gulf/Iranian Oil Infrastructure, India etc., then the repercussions on the global economy, and therefore on the Chinese economy, would be significant.

With what leverage? Why would nations that Pakistan threatens in turn not be inclined to join in the war? And what hold then does China have over THESE nations is the question?