China: The Unsatisfied Power

[William Hung]

@Genesis @Chinese-Dragon
If you don't mind, I would be curious about some other users' opinions on @Genesis 's article. I therefore would like to invite @TaiShang @Nihonjin1051 @SvenSvensonov @alaungphaya @somsak @beijingwalker @Black Flag @Carlosa @cnleio @Edison Chen @gambit @hans @kyle Chiang @Lure @madokafc @xesy @Zsari to contribute their feedback and thinking. This has the potential to become a very productive thread.

Thanks for the tag.

There had been some biased moderation, from my perception, in this section so I don't really consider it worthwhile to make any serious posts anymore. I'm now more inclined to resort to my original habit of comical cynicism and derisory form of posting.

Since I never had any problems with @Genesis' style of posts, I don't really want to make any comments on his essay with my kind of cynicism and derision. But if @Genesis gives me his permission, then I wouldn't mind commenting on his essay.

I must say, his essay is quite interesting and I do have some opinions on it (some of which will differ from yours).

 

[somsak]

How China handles this, is important to the 21st century, but the US and ASEAN + 2's response are also significant. However, due to the nature of this "conflict," and the fact US is at it's peak and China still closer to the beginning than the end, the initiative is squarely on us, and our actions

I keep seeing this claim from Chinese citizens, and the relation to Deng Xiaoping's saying about hiding capabilities and biding time. The problem with this is that the rest of the world is not comprised of idiots, so even if China pleads weakness, no one believes it. China is a world power, perhaps a superpower, in the world's eyes, so China is certainly not "closer to the beginning." In fact, @Chinese-Dragon has asserted that within 10 years, China's rise to dominance will be complete, and I tend to agree.

Thanx for the Tags LeveratedBuyout.

I just disagree with this part. China will never catch up with the US, unless some "new great invention/discovery or go uncharted territories" will be rolled out in the near future.

Normally this kind of thought that China can catch up with the US come from only one fact: China huge population of disciplined working culture. This is the strong point of China w.r.t the US. We now look at what make US No.1.

- If you look at the current dynamic why US is number 1, she is number 1 because of talent management. You see the best and brightest born elsewhere end up to be US citizen. This dynamic continues.
- The US has been inventing new things all the time at the rate China cannot catch up with. If you look back to the world history, the great empire has their new inventions to do things their neighbour can't. The Inca built system of roads for fast information. The Qin of China invented official system that enable China to rule over large land area. Up to current, China only new invention is the revival of ancient silk road. So we will need to see the impact of the new silk road. If the project did change great number of people ways of life and give breath of modernity to central Asia, or create new humming trade route through central asia, then ... Yeah Only that we could say China might catch up with the US.
If China decided to explore more the moon than previously explored, and finally shock the world with new discovery that could be translated into political power, yes, that kind of thing will do help China catching up US.


and the reason that US is still No.1 inventors is because great talent born else where end up US citizen. It is because US is no. 1 world educator. It is because US work culture that is merit base. It is because English is the world language.

All being said, I don't see any chance China can catch up with the US, since US has much faster speed of new innovation.

I suggest China start copy US on this working culture and on being land of immigrants.

 

[TaiShang]

I suggest China start copy US on this working culture and on being land of immigrants.

Working culture is a matter of development. It will set in slowly as industries grow in scale and capability.

Large scale immigration? No way. The US is not entirely happy about having millions of low-skill immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere.

China has enough talent base. The matter is to nurture and make use of them. Hence the importance of having world class research institutes and universities.

 

[somsak]

You make strong points but China's demographic strength isn't just in numbers. The majority of Americans are incredibly stupid, lazy, apathetic people. Relying on immigrants who your "natives" don't get along with just creates a capital flight risk. If America ever does something really stupid their best workers will be on the plane to the next best country a day later.

immigrant is really difficult part. We see race tension like Ferguson because of this kind of thing.

 

[SvenSvensonov]

You make strong points but China's demographic strength isn't just in numbers. The majority of Americans are incredibly stupid, lazy, apathetic people. Relying on immigrants who your "natives" don't get along with just creates a capital flight risk. If America ever does something really stupid their best workers will be on the plane to the next best country a day later.

I told @LeveragedBuyout I wouldn't participate in this thread, but when someone says something like, "The majority of Americans are incredibly stupid, lazy, apathetic people", I have to stand-up and say something. This is the most BS thing I have read on PDF in a while, and there is a lot of crap that floats around here. Americans can be lazy, but the majority? According to what, your perceptions? If so your perceptions are wrong. If Americans were lazy, wouldn't our falling unemployment percentage be reversing, wouldn't industry avoid re-shoring to the US, wouldn't fossil fuel usage be expanding rather then dropping in favor of bikes, running and walking? I mean if we are so lazy, shouldn't car usage be increasing an not decreasing? What about our oil boom? Was that just a bit of magic? Are you sure it's not hard work? Sure we have our poor, unmotivated, and uneducated people, every nation does, but you cannot make that statement with any honesty and even if you believe it to be true it is nothing but garbage.

Our innovation, artistic inclination, university participation, each goes far to proving that we are anything but stupid.

"If America ever does something really stupid their best workers will be on the plane to the next best country a day later" - Nope, we aren't Russia, our people have and continue to make changes, not run from our problems. Civil unrest has been part of the American fabric, so too has economic and political turmoil, we never ran and we still don't.

Some Americans can be lazy, but never, ever make such statements about an entire nation!!! I wouldn't say that all of China's people are lazy, steal and copy foreign inventions... because I know that there are plenty of hardworking, innovative and intelligence people there too. Please don't make statements like this.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

I told @LeveragedBuyout I wouldn't participate in this thread, but when someone says something like, "The majority of Americans are incredibly stupid, lazy, apathetic people", I have to stand-up and say something. This is the most BS thing I have read on PDF in a while, and there is a lot of crap that floats around here. Americans can be laze, but the majority? According to what, your perceptions? If so your perceptions are wrong. If Americans were lazy, wouldn't our falling unemployment percentage be reversing, would industry avoid re-shoring to the US, wouldn't fossil fuel usage be expanding rather then dropping in favor of bikes, running and walking? Sure we have our poor, unmotivated, and uneducated people, every nation does, but you cannot make that statement with any honesty and even if you believe it to be true it is nothing but garbage.

Our innovation, artistic inclination, university participation, each goes far to proving that we are anything but stupid.

"If America ever does something really stupid their best workers will be on the plane to the next best country a day later" - Nope, we aren't Russia, our people have and continue to make changes, not run from our problems. Civil unrest has been part of the American fabric, so too has economic and political turmoil, we never ran and we still don't.

Some Americans can be lazy, but never, ever make such statements about an entire nation!!! I wouldn't say that all of China's people are lazy, steal and copy foreign inventions... because I know that there are plenty of hardworking, innovative and intelligence people there too. Please don't make statements like this.

A word to the wise, it's best to just put such "people"* on your ignore list. I learned a while back that when I asked such people to quantify or prove their propaganda, the conversation tends to divert into more trolling. Such "individuals"* are uneducated (the educated know better than to make such baseless statements) and also lacking in intellectual curiosity (those who are curious of mind check the facts before spewing such broad-based nonsense). You will never be able to convince an uneducated, incurious "person,"* so don't waste your time.

*Starting to wonder if these are actual people, or bots.

 

[TheTruth]

I told @LeveragedBuyout I wouldn't participate in this thread, but when someone says something like, "The majority of Americans are incredibly stupid, lazy, apathetic people", I have to stand-up and say something. This is the most BS thing I have read on PDF in a while, and there is a lot of crap that floats around here. Americans can be lazy, but the majority? According to what, your perceptions? If so your perceptions are wrong. If Americans were lazy, wouldn't our falling unemployment percentage be reversing, wouldn't industry avoid re-shoring to the US, wouldn't fossil fuel usage be expanding rather then dropping in favor of bikes, running and walking? I mean if we are so lazy, should car usage be increasing an not decreasing? What about our oil boom? Was that just a bit of magic? Are you sure it's not hard work? Sure we have our poor, unmotivated, and uneducated people, every nation does, but you cannot make that statement with any honesty and even if you believe it to be true it is nothing but garbage.

Our innovation, artistic inclination, university participation, each goes far to proving that we are anything but stupid.

"If America ever does something really stupid their best workers will be on the plane to the next best country a day later" - Nope, we aren't Russia, our people have and continue to make changes, not run from our problems. Civil unrest has been part of the American fabric, so too has economic and political turmoil, we never ran and we still don't.

Some Americans can be lazy, but never, ever make such statements about an entire nation!!! I wouldn't say that all of China's people are lazy, steal and copy foreign inventions... because I know that there are plenty of hardworking, innovative and intelligence people there too. Please don't make statements like this.

Almost all of America's so-called innovation comes from foreigners or some kind of ethnic Asian. Half of all US patents are authored by foreigners. The "native" population consists of parasites who leech off these hard working people.

As to the point on running, biking etc. this is mostly concentrated in densely backed urban communities and only in certain parts, by a very specific subset of people. The majority of Americans are fat if not morbidly obese and have wrecked their minds and bodies with a steady diet of every kind of filth you can imagine. People who can write a proper sentence, like yourself, are sadly not in the majority.

I'm tired of hearing arrogant Americans claim credit for other peoples' work when any other day they would be attacking them racially, and then turn around and accuse "the Chinese" of being uncreative when they owe so much to ethnic Chinese.

 

[Aepsilons]

Almost all of America's so-called innovation comes from foreigners or some kind of ethnic Asian. Half of all US patents are authored by foreigners. The "native" population consists of parasites who leech off these hard working people.

I'm tired of hearing arrogant Americans claim credit for other peoples' work when any other day they would be attacking them racially.

This is baseless and a defamatory post.

 

[TheTruth]

This is baseless and a defamatory post.

You're right ... actually the portion granted to non-residents surpassed 50% recently. Thank you for the correction, Nihonjin

Statistical Country Profiles

 

[somsak]

Almost all of America's so-called innovation comes from foreigners or some kind of ethnic Asian. Half of all US patents are authored by foreigners. The "native" population consists of parasites who leech off these hard working people.

As to the point on running, biking etc. this is mostly concentrated in densely backed urban communities and only in certain parts, by a very specific subset of people. The majority of Americans are fat if not morbidly obese and have wrecked their minds and bodies with a steady diet of every kind of filth you can imagine. People who can write a proper sentence, like yourself, are sadly not in the majority.

I'm tired of hearing arrogant Americans claim credit for other peoples' work when any other day they would be attacking them racially, and then turn around and accuse "the Chinese" of being uncreative when they owe so much to ethnic Chinese.

Soon US university will be full of Chinese people. This is because "work ethic" inherited from ancient teaching. However, the invention is in US system, for US merit. For example, a Ph.D on microwave engineer is earning his Ph.D on how to better detect launching MIRV that is passing through ionosphere. This kind of research will be part of DARPRA whole system of star wars. Even the inventor is that Chinese born Ph.D student, the merit of his invention goes into US political/military power.

And US work ethic, in this small research case, is that Ph.D student's work ethic.

 

[Genesis]

Thanks for the tag.

There had been some biased moderation, from my perception, in this section so I don't really consider it worthwhile to make any serious posts anymore. I'm now more inclined to resort to my original habit of comical cynicism and derisory form of posting.

Since I never had any problems with @Genesis' style of posts, I don't really want to make any comments on his essay with my kind of cynicism and derision. But if @Genesis gives me his permission, then I wouldn't mind commenting on his essay.

I must say, his essay is quite interesting and I do have some opinions on it (some of which will differ from yours).

go ahead, what's a forum for.

Thanx for the Tags LeveratedBuyout.

I just disagree with this part. China will never catch up with the US, unless some "new great invention/discovery or go uncharted territories" will be rolled out in the near future.

Normally this kind of thought that China can catch up with the US come from only one fact: China huge population of disciplined working culture. This is the strong point of China w.r.t the US. We now look at what make US No.1.

- If you look at the current dynamic why US is number 1, she is number 1 because of talent management. You see the best and brightest born elsewhere end up to be US citizen. This dynamic continues.

This is a misconception, while true US does attract talent like no other, but China has been doing something on a lesser scale.

One of the reasons China's tech sector rose so quickly is because of a government initiative that gave very special treatment to those overseas Chinese that can bring back technology or anything else of value, like management principles and such.

This is largely successful and has led to the current boom in many tech sectors.

Chinese education sector is going into major reforms, and Chinese basic infrastructure has been more or less established.

A side note, in the 1980s, the current WZ-10 attack helicopter chief engineer went into the work force, he had no access to helicopters, funding, computers, or even an experienced mentor. All the new graduates, have these and more now. One generation passing experience and knowledge to the next.

You can copy designs, but you can't copy experience, and that takes time, time we have spent.

- The US has been inventing new things all the time at the rate China cannot catch up with. If you look back to the world history, the great empire has their new inventions to do things their neighbour can't. The Inca built system of roads for fast information. The Qin of China invented official system that enable China to rule over large land area. Up to current, China only new invention is the revival of ancient silk road. So we will need to see the impact of the new silk road. If the project did change great number of people ways of life and give breath of modernity to central Asia, or create new humming trade route through central asia, then ... Yeah Only that we could say China might catch up with the US.
If China decided to explore more the moon than previously explored, and finally shock the world with new discovery that could be translated into political power, yes, that kind of thing will do help China catching up US.

Catch up, what does that mean? We must look at it as a whole.

A good example is military.

The first F-15 came out in the 70s, China had nothing. The first J-10 was inducted in 2013, a full 3 decades. American F-22 was inducted in 2006, and there is every indication of induction of J-20 by 2016 or 1017, a full deduction of 20 years.

By the time 6th gen rolls out, China and America will be neck to neck.

You have to remember China started late, not only late, but with nothing. When industrialization happened, we had trouble making a lamp, and I mean that literally.

Chinese smartphone companies are pouring massive amount of money into R&D. Government is pouring massive amount of money into the tech sector.

While it is not apparent now, but it all depends on what you consider to be innovative.

and the reason that US is still No.1 inventors is because great talent born else where end up US citizen. It is because US is no. 1 world educator. It is because US work culture that is merit base. It is because English is the world language.

All being said, I don't see any chance China can catch up with the US, since US has much faster speed of new innovation.

I suggest China start copy US on this working culture and on being land of immigrants.

Faster speed based on what? I clearly show you how the time between American innovation, and Chinese imitation, are getting noticeably shorter.

2030, 2050, these are not random dates, pulled out of someone's ***.

 

[TheTruth]

What you say is absolutely right. Americans are still hypocrites and scum for denigrating the Chinese when they owe everything to Chinese people and other skilled immigrants.

 

[Aepsilons]

To sum up, to all those that say Asia is the second coming of WW1 Europe, they need to look again.

A logical extrospection of regional harmony and geostrategic reality.

 

[Dem!god]

I think the issue is that when it comes to democracy in developing countries, issues like emotion/nationalism/xenophobia can become very big selling points in favor of a prospective political candidate.

In a developed economy, where there is a high level of general education, this kind of pandering to fear is less of an issue (though still an issue of course).

Take India's recent election of Modi for instance. Now there is no doubt that some small percentage of "extreme elements" were supporting him because of his reputation, and hoped that he would take care of the Muslim problem they see their country as having. Luckily for the rest of India, Modi isn't quite as crazy as his reputation would make him out to be.

Or let's say the leaders being elected in the Middle East. They pander to fear in a similar way, but with a more religious focus to their politics. This was one of the reasons why the Arab Spring turned out to be a disappointment for many.

The idea for us has always been... first become a developed economy, then political reforms later. This has been the pattern throughout East Asia, and even in the Western developed nations. America for example was a superpower in 1945, but it took till 1964 for the Civil Rights Act.

For China it will be a slow process, but the silver lining is that China's development process is going fast.



Not exactly "complete", what I generally say is that we will have some degree of strategic breathing room in 2025. Since that is when we will be at a "decent" level of economic and military power.

By then, we will technically be classified as a "developed" country by World Bank definitions, however still low on the totem pole in terms of per capita income. So there will still be a long way to go after that.

And it will take several decades more after that point to reach a level of power that could be described as "dominant" (currently only America is dominant in a global sense). And even after that point, America will still be a dominant power. I don't think this world will ever have China as the sole superpower, like America currently is. It will probably be some kind of a power sharing agreement/understanding between the major powers.

can't you say anything, without bringing india into it.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

can't you say anything, without bringing india into it.

Well India is the prime example of political liberalization before economic development, in a "developing" country.

China and India have similar population sizes, but China's GDP is $10.4 trillion compared to India at $1.8 trillion. India's social development indicators are nearly the lowest in the world.

That just shows we shouldn't rush too fast in terms of political reforms. We should become a developed country FIRST, since that's how it happened in East Asia, and even in the Western world.