China sees births fall despite push for second child

[Brainsucker]

You are creating a society where woman need to work and have a career.

Then you ask them to have more children.

It doesn't fit in any sane and responsible people logic.

Yes, you're right. This is the very reason why the classical world tend to put women on the bottom of gender equality. That's because they need women to give birth a lot of children and raise them properly. That's why they sacrifice women's right in the society.

The problem is, you can't do that in today world society. At least if you want to live in a modern model of society. Not the medieval kind one.

 

[Menthol]

Yes, you're right. This is the very reason why the classical world tend to put women on the bottom of gender equality. That's because they need women to give birth a lot of children and raise them properly. That's why they sacrifice women's right in the society.

The problem is, you can't do that in today world society. At least if you want to live in a modern model of society. Not the medieval kind one.

Being a housewife, it doesn't mean she is jobless.

But in the government perspective, it doesn't productive, because it doesn't make money and doesn't pay the tax.

All the narrative is always promote for woman to have a job and compete with man.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

To have more people is easy, as the case in China. To control the fast growing population is hard, especially when you are still dirt poor, as the case in India.

1. No, in fact to force people to have more children is harder than forcing people to have fewer children.
2. India's population growth rate has already declined a lot. The total TFR has come near close to replacement levels already between 2.2 and 2.3

A successful country always has low birth rate. A failure country will have a high birth rate. There are many statistics to back this theory.

China is on the right path to glory.

Well that is not true. After a certain stage, success is in fact in being able to maintain a high TFR.

Look at Israel, there the TFR is as high as 3!

Japan is a declining society with a very low TFR.

 

[Mista]

The problem with low births stem from the fact that it is too expensive to raise children in China nowadays, especially in cities. Unless the government encourages second births (by giving monetary incentives) the birthrate decline will continue.

Singapore has monetary incentives, tax rebates, subsidies for housing and education, childcare etc to promote childbearing, but the TFR remains stubbornly low.

It's not the cost, but the change in living style. Many woman are not married.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Singapore has monetary incentives, tax rebates, subsidies for housing and education, childcare etc to promote childbearing, but the TFR remains stubbornly low.

It's not the cost, but the change in living style. Many woman are not married.

In this regard China is better suited. Singapore can't go beyond offering some monetary incentives due to the western inherited system. China can use force and discipline to better do stuff, but it will still remain hard, because people are rich, so money matters little; and have less time.

 

[Mista]

In this regard China is better suited. Singapore can't go beyond offering some monetary incentives due to the western inherited system. China can use force and discipline to better do stuff, but it will still remain hard, because people are rich, so money matters little; and have less time.

Nah. It doesn't matter whether China is authoritarian or not. Women are not marrying. What can the CCP do to force them to marry? Deny woman the rights to education and jobs?

In Singapore, there are so many policies from different agencies encouraging birthhood. From childcare to housing to parenthood leave to tax rebate to outright giving you cash etc. LKY even proposed to give a cash bonus of two years of the average Singaporean's salary.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/money-wont-solve-low-birth-rate-problem-mr-lee

Yet the TFR is still at an abysmal 1.2. Why? Because many women aren't even married. Married couples have an average of 2 children here. It's the unmarried women who are dragging the TFR down to 1.2. East Asians only desire to have children after we get married. Sweden has a high TFR for developed countries at 1.88, but 54 percent of children were born to an unmarried mother.

China has a similar problem; 剩女. Not even their parents who nag at them everyday at home can get them married. What can the CPC do to be more effective than their parents? Legislate a law that every woman must get married?

I'm not encouraging birth outside marriage, but India being a traditional society will face similar problem in the future too. Urban India already has a TFR of 1.8, and will continue to drop with education and economic development.

Well, not exactly a bad thing either. For India and for humanity.

 

[Khanate]

Please don't. Let nature do its magic. Chinese were encouraged before, then discouraged, then restricted, then less restricted, ... All these "clever" plannings backfired.

Excatly right.

Once a population has gone through contraceptive intervention, it becomes somewhat immune to government policies or incentives that then try to reverse low birth rates. Its best to leave family planning to people.

Being a housewife, it doesn't mean she is jobless.

But in the government perspective, it doesn't productive, because it doesn't make money and doesn't pay the tax.

All the narrative is always promote for woman to have a job and compete with man.

Working women implies availability of more, hence cheaper, labour and a 50% larger tax base. And everyone loves more consumers. If you are a Finance minister or banker, what is not to like here?

 

[Menthol]

Singapore has monetary incentives, tax rebates, subsidies for housing and education, childcare etc to promote childbearing, but the TFR remains stubbornly low.

It's not the cost, but the change in living style. Many woman are not married.

I guess it's related to upbringing education.

Chinese Indonesian is not like Singapore. Since a child, girl are taught to marry, have several children and her husband will work hard for the family.

While in Singapore, since they entered school, they are taught to study hard, enter a good university, so they can get a good job with high salary... Then get marry.

 

[Beast]

The problem with low births stem from the fact that it is too expensive to raise children in China nowadays, especially in cities. Unless the government encourages second births (by giving monetary incentives) the birthrate decline will continue.

Expensive is just part of the problem. Both working parents, lifestyle and increase quality of life are rest of the reason

 

[terranMarine]

China should open doors for African, Arab and Syrian migrants, as they always preach Europe to do so.

Why should China change policy just because US and Europe bombed those countries to hell. US and Europe have the moral responsibility and obligation to take in all these refugees. These people are enjoying safety and better quality of life in these highly developed countries. Who knows maybe more 9-11 will occur in US, hope you won't have to be one of those fallen

 

[somsak]

The core advantage China has is in her people, for example hard working culture, and 5000 years history. All of these are embedded in people's brain. Without children, there is no civilization. This is true for all civilization. Without children, civilization dies. I guess Chinese bare the responsible for survival of Chinese people, culture, history, and civilization. Thus, it is great responsible to have children. Atleast 2 per couple. Any chronic number less than that is mathematically proved to extinction. I will show you one thing.

Suppose a country has two group. Majority 70%, minority 30%. If minority has 3 children for 2 generations, and the majority has only 1 children. The grandson of minority will become majority of 70%, and the grandson of the majority will become minority of 30%. Now consider on the world stage when the US has 1 billion people, and China has only 300 millions. You can see

 

[Brainsucker]

Expensive is just part of the problem. Both working parents, lifestyle and increase quality of life are rest of the reason

So how can the Chinese government fix the problem. The western countries like Japan and European Countries do the wrong things to solve this problem. China still at the door of the problem. They're not yet at the decline like Japan nor European country. So it's not caught in the web, yet.

Oh btw, there is also another cause that reduce the birth rate nowaday. It's the raise of marriage life in the city. Long time ago, men and women married at the age of 16 - 20. Then it raise into 20 - 30 years old. But today, a lot of them in the city married at the age of 30 - 40 years old. This new phenomena also the reason why the birth rates is decline in many major cities in the world.

 

[Beast]

So how can the Chinese government fix the problem. The western countries like Japan and European Countries do the wrong things to solve this problem. China still at the door of the problem. They're not yet at the decline like Japan nor European country. So it's not caught in the web, yet.

A declining birth rate is not a bad thing. I believe a population of 1 billion for next 50years is more manageable for China. We will go thru a technology revolution that life will never be same again. The world is currently experiencing overpopulation.

 

[Brainsucker]

A declining birth rate is not a bad thing. I believe a population of 1 billion for next 50years is more manageable for China. We will go thru a technology revolution that life will never be same again. The world is currently experiencing overpopulation.

Well, like in Ideocracy, a Hollywood movie that I watched sometime ago. Smart people tend to have no children, while stupid people give birth like a rat.

 

[kankan326]

China should open doors for African, Arab and Syrian migrants, as they always preach Europe to do so.

We need ethnic Chinese population. Population is not a number game. China will never accept massive immigrations.