China’s Anti-Carrier Ballistic Missile Now Opposite Taiwan | Bloomberg

[Martian2]

It looks like the Chinese ASBM (anti-ship ballistic missile) has been deployed. The U.S. military says it has an "immediate need" to develop a missile to replicate the Chinese ASBM flight characteristic to enable tests of American naval defense capability.

Eventually, after years of tests, the U.S. might be able to stop one Chinese ASBM. Possibly even a few. However, can the U.S. stop 100 ASBMs in five minutes?

Simulated ASBM strikes on aircraft carrier deck mock-up on land.

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China’s Anti-Carrier Ballistic Missile Now Opposite Taiwan | Bloomberg

"China’s Anti-Carrier [Ballistic] Missile Now Opposite Taiwan, Flynn Says
By Tony Capaccio - Apr 18, 2013 4:37 PM ET

The Chinese military has deployed its new anti-ship ballistic missile along its southern coast facing Taiwan, the Pentagon’s top military intelligence officer said today.

The missile, designated the DF-21D, is one of a “growing number of conventionally armed” new weapons China is deploying to the region, adding to more than 1,200 short-range missiles opposite the island democracy, U.S. Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, the Defense Intelligence Agency director, said in a statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Flynn’s reference to the DF-21D follows one made by U.S. Navy Admiral Samuel Locklear, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, in congressional testimony on April 9. He highlighted the “initial deployment of a new anti-ship missile that we believe is designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers.”

Flynn’s brief reference to the DF-21D today is significant because it advances the DIA’s assessment last year, when U.S. Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, then the agency’s director, said China’s military is “probably preparing to deploy” the weapon.

The disclosure may spark increased scrutiny in Congress this year about the vulnerability of the Navy’s aircraft carriers, including the new Gerald R. Ford class being built by Newport News, Virginia-based Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.. (HII)

The Navy estimates that the first new carrier will cost at least $12.3 billion, and the service’s budget request for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 includes $1.68 billion for new aircraft carriers, more than double this year’s $781.7 million request. Of that, $945 million would pay for continued design and construction of the second Ford-class carrier, the USS John F. Kennedy.

‘Immediate Need’

Michael Gilmore, the Pentagon’s director of operational testing, warned in his January 2012 annual report that the Navy lacked a target needed to check its defenses against the DF-21D. The Navy had an “immediate need” for a test missile able to replicate the DF-21D’s trajectory, Gilmore said.

Last July, Gilmore told Navy Secretary Ray Mabus in a memo that testing to evaluate the new carriers’ “ability to withstand shock and survive in combat” would be postponed until after the Kennedy is built, and may not be completed for seven years.

The DF-21D is intended to give China “the capability to attack large ships, particularly aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific,” the Pentagon’s 2012 China report said. The report cites estimates that the missile’s range exceeds 930 miles (1,500 kilometers).

Carrier Hunters

The missiles are designed be be launched to a general location, where their guidance systems take over and spot carriers to attack with warheads intended to destroy the ships’ flight decks, launch catapults and control towers.

U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert told defense reporters in March 2012 that the Navy is evaluating how to defeat the missile during all phases of flight, using methods such as jamming the missiles’ sensors, reducing the electronic emissions from U.S. ships, and intercepting the missile.

“Some call that links of a chain,” Greenert said. “You want to break as many links as possible.”

In its fiscal 2014 Budget Highlights book, the Navy said it’s working a “kill chain” against an unspecified weapon.

The Navy, the book says, wants to integrate the capabilities of the Falls Church, Virginia-based Northrop Grumman Corp.’s (NOC) E-2D Advanced Hawkeye surveillance aircraft; Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed Martin Corp.’s (LMT) Aegis surveillance and missile defense system; and Waltham, Massachusetts-based Raytheon Co.’s (RTN) Cooperative Engagement Capability sensor network linking ships and Standard Missile-6 interceptors “to keep pace with the evolving threat.”

Analysts including Mark Gunzinger, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and some naval officers worry that the new carriers, while formidable warships, may not be able to get close enough for their planes to attack enemies, such as China and Iran, that are armed with precision-guided anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles."

[Note: Thank you to EastWind for the second picture.]

 

[Paludism]

First I would like to put this in proper perspective. Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, gave this missile an “IOC” short for initial operational capability. This is where I start my own assessment for the commander to characterize the situation this way. You have to give this assessment from the Commander, with a little more credibility and due respect than the missile itself deserves.

After extensive research and reading some of the materials from reputed defense experts, IOC means, the Chinese have tested this missile many times and it is working according to design objectives. Most importantly, it is all the individual components making up the missile system is working according to plan, i.e. the rocket propulsion, heat shield overcoming re-entry at mach 10, terminal guidance, satellite data coverage of the where about of the ship etc. They may not even need the OHR (Over the Horizon Radar) if the Chinese have completed launching their own Beidu GPS system or another equivalent one.

The Chinese have tested this missile with only a couple of satellite coverage for testing purposes. They have tested this on land many times, mind you it has taken them more than 10 years to come to this stage. The Chinese is yet to test this over ocean surface but they are gong to once all the support infrastructure are in place. At this stage I think it can do more damage than just starting a fire on the carrier’s deck.

Now it begs the question, what will constitute a fully operational system (not just the missile alone). Here is my take.

1) The Chinese is now beginning to launch a series of satellites to have a seamless coverage of the vast ocean area so that they are able to monitor and track the exact location of a moving carrier on millisecond basis. They plan to launch about 24 or 36 satellites, much like the GPS system of the US for this purpose. The Chinese plan to offer their own version of GPS called the Beidu. The US GPS is for civilian use and the US also have another one exclusively for military only.

2) The missiles are already in mass production stage and they are also even planning to use fast catamaran to deploy further out into sea along with mobile launchers along the coast.

3) Now the most important part of the system development. The military command and control structure to deploy such a system. This is crucial because any miscalculation could end up in a doomsday scenario for the planet.

Once all these elements are in place, then the obsolescence of CVN is assured. The US Navy knew this all along. The present day CVN has no defense against a missile, let alone a mach 10 missile. Google it.

Now the Chinese are beginning to launch a series of satellites and they have just launched one not too long ago. They are going to launch a lot more in years to come. BTW, they have built a massive rocket manufacturing facilities in Tianjin. They are making rocket systems on a mass production basis, no country in the world is able to do that. Also they are going to launch a record number of satellites this year. Last year the Chinese have matched the US in number of space launches.

The US has to realized that this DF-21D missile is designed solely as a defensive weaponry, i. e with an anti access area denial (A2AD) objective. The design philosophy of the target range speaks for itself and the offensive use within that range is an unintended consequence of that design criteria.
To add more meat to this missile, this is a world first missile system, with an algorithmic exospheric apparently random re-entry trajectory in its terminal phase. It is analogous to a stone is thrown at a glancing angle and it is skipping over a lake surface several times before it actually enters the water. But the adversary have no idea when it will come down. The present day technology for missile defense is to target the missile at its boost phase, and it is next to impossible to shoot it down at its terminal phase. This technology does not exist at this moment in time.

Once the missile decide to come down with the carrier on its cross-hair, a max 30 knot moving carrier is considered stationary in the overall scheme of mach 10. i.e. a sitting duck in a pond. Lets crunch some numbers here. Mach 1 is the speed of sound at about 1/5 mile a second. So mach10 is 2 miles a second. Exosphere is around 50-60 miles, so it will only take 30 seconds for the missile to hit the carrier.

So am max cruising speed of 30 knots, in 30 seconds only travels 1500 feet. So a Nimitz class CVN is about that length, and it is within the CEP of the missile and now the carrier is like an expensive lump of metal floating on an ocean surface together 5000 odd individuals of blood and soul – that is if they have soul at all. You can run but you cannot hide.

If the Chinese launch a salvo of say 10 – 20 missiles, it will overwhelm the defenses and the leverage of the cost of all the missiles against a fully equipped CVN, it is more than astronomical. There is no defense in this grim scenario.

I PERSONALLY DO NOT BELIEVE THE CHINESE WILL EVER LAUNCH ANY OF THIS MISSILE ON ANY SHIPS LET ALONE A US CARRIER. As I have mentioned before It is purely designed as a defensive weapon.

How the mindset of development of this DF-21D came about. It has a historical perspective to it. Soon after the communist took over China, The Nationalists in ROC (Taiwan) sent in a reconnaissance plane over China to monitor their movement. To their surprise, it was shot down. Then the US sent in another one of their own and was shot down too. The Chinese only announced they shot down the Nationalists plane but dare not announce the US one to save face for the US side to avoid any retaliatory action from the US. They know jolly well that the Chinese have no match for the US immediately after the civil war, driving out the Nationalists.

Sure enough, the US sent in 3 carrier groups along the Chinese coastline and the US put up 200 planes in the air just short of entering China’s airspace. The Chinese only flew 20 old junky planes just as a show of force. They knew they are going to be picked up – a field day for the US AF. They did it nevertheless.

After that the US Navy and planes have been harassing and threatening Chinese at a routine basis with impunity for years.

The Chinese have never forgotten this moment extreme intimidation. I saw that documentary in China in Chinese of course. They are not posting a threat, the Chinese become just a little more assertive only recently and the means to demonstrate it without using it.

A threat from China – a perception from the US side only.

 

[gambit]

First I would like to put this in proper perspective.

<snipped>

A threat from China – a perception from the US side only.

Those are not your words. You do not have the relevant experience and intelligence to put together something reasonably coherent like it. So in a publicly accessible forum, it is honest to name your source. But I do not expect you to be so honest...

 

[Psyops]

The Df-21D is now fully operational and makes every single American aircraft carrier nothing but a sitting duck. America do not have a counter to it.

 

[gambit]

The Df-21D is now fully operational and makes every single American aircraft carrier nothing but a sitting duck. America do not have a counter to it.

China can rate the slingshot as operational and it still would not matter. The true test is always against a target as the target is in its true operational state.

If the target is against a moving ship, then the DF-21D must be tested against a moving ship in open sea and well over the horizon limit. It must be done in clear and inclement weather. There must be tests in day and night because if the DF-21D relies on over-the-horizon radar, such radar will be affected by atmospheric plasma levels between day and night.

So you can call the DF-21D 'operational' all you want...

 

[HongWu]

It's time to liberate Taiwan!

 

[Sergi]

Operational already ??? Tested on moving targets ???

 

[Psyops]

China can rate the slingshot as operational and it still would not matter. The true test is always against a target as the target is in its true operational state.

If the target is against a moving ship, then the DF-21D must be tested against a moving ship in open sea and well over the horizon limit. It must be done in clear and inclement weather. There must be tests in day and night because if the DF-21D relies on over-the-horizon radar, such radar will be affected by atmospheric plasma levels between day and night.

So you can call the DF-21D 'operational' all you want...

All those tests have been completed long time ago, that's why it's considered operational.

Operational already ??? Tested on moving targets ???

Yep, already carried out.

 

[Malik Alashter]

howmuch they cost since they're so advanced>

 

[Paludism]

Those are not your words. You do not have the relevant experience and intelligence to put together something reasonably coherent like it. So in a publicly accessible forum, it is honest to name your source. But I do not expect you to be so honest...

Tell me something, Mr. Technical expert. Do all Americans live in a deluded and denial world? A member post something reasonably coherent, you try to deny it, China develops a cutting edge DF-21D missile, you say it's not yet been tested. Why are you here? To deny every member of their rights to post something that is relevantly coherent? You remind me of Pentagon. lol Are you getting paid by your so called military experts or the FB of Idiots?

By this conclusion, I can validate you have not met many Chinese members. I was invited to this forum by one of the present member here. The only forum I frequent most is Sino Defense. Google it if you have no clue.

Now listen up..
A frog in a well sees only as much... but a frog out of the well sees things in an entirely different perspective. DO NOT start dictating terms like your USA does to other countries. Respect their rights, respect their freedom of speech and last but not the least do not try to be a bully. I say that because you have no clue who you are dealing with and who you will be dealing with. To me an average American is very &#8220;cocoonic&#8221;. I am not sure but I was told only less than 2% of American has a passport and most of them have not left the two shores of the two Oceans, may be a little more bother to go beyond the 49th parallel. Now may be more because of the Homeland Security requirement.
I have an American friend and we are brothers now but once in a while we got into some intense argument about world politics, but at the end of the day, we always agree to disagree. We call each other bro, all the time. So cheer up and do not behave like a cranky old American. We are all here for a simple reason - A healthy discussion.

 

[Paludism]

China can rate the slingshot as operational and it still would not matter. The true test is always against a target as the target is in its true operational state.

If the target is against a moving ship, then the DF-21D must be tested against a moving ship in open sea and well over the horizon limit. It must be done in clear and inclement weather. There must be tests in day and night because if the DF-21D relies on over-the-horizon radar, such radar will be affected by atmospheric plasma levels between day and night.

So you can call the DF-21D 'operational' all you want...

The main reason I am writing this is because, so far I have not found one person who is able to derive the conclusion that the DF-21D is going to work.

When I write, I based it on my own sound understanding of the engineering science involved, especially about the kinetic kill approach. An average American jo blo I can understand if he doesn&#8217;t, but if a person with an engineering background and still not able to fathom the degree of difficulty of the endeavor, then the education he or she got is a complete waste of time, or the education is a total failure.

From the understanding of the kinetic kill test, the satellite rendezvous test, the control of the Chang&#8217;e 2 with a perilune of 9.5 miles, then I can derive from these facts alone, that it will work. The crowning moment success of the Tianhe-1A supercomputer is just another added piece of evidence to the argument. THESE ARE ALL FACTS. China stated that they wanted to field the world first exascale machine. They are going to relinquish that crown very soon in a year or two but they are not going to be too concerned or uptight about it because they are confident now that they can get to the top if they wanted to. It is a matter of priority. Next time, they are going to make one big tsunami rather than making little waves here and there.

Did you know that when the Chinese first put up a man-made satellite in orbit on April 24, 1970, the payload of 390 lb is the total combined weight of all previous first successful attempts of the USSR, US, France and Japan put together. The credit goes to the returning Chinese American MR. Chen Xue Sen, the co-founder of JPL. This is another added piece to my argument.

 

[Sergi]

Yep, already carried out.

So are you gona give us some source or your word is final on the matter ???

 

[gambit]

All those tests have been completed long time ago, that's why it's considered operational.



Yep, already carried out.

You wish...Or dreamed...

First...International launch notification agreements...For example, between Russia and China...

President of Russia

The Federal Law ratifies the agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on notification of launches of ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles, signed in Beijing on October 13, 2009.

The agreement’s purpose is to establish a reciprocal notification mechanism for planned and executed launches of ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles in Russia and China in order to avoid any unclear and unforeseen situations.

Information on launches of ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles will be exchanged on a confidential basis.

Notification will be given for launches of ballistic missiles of a range of more than 2,000 km in the direction of either of the signatories.

The agreement sets the deadlines and validity periods for notification, and also the list of data to be provided.

There are international agreements where countries capable of launching bodies into space agreed to notify the international community well in advance of such launches, whether for civilian or for military purposes, whether for orbit or simple ballistic return to Earth launches, to reduce the odds of misunderstanding regarding the nature of a particular launch. This agreement between Russia and China specified a distance of 2,000 km so what this mean is that international agreements can be specific to distance, region, altitude, or just about anything countries agreed upon. It is likely that you do not know of these agreements so I will assign you this homework using appropriate keyword search to educate yourself.

Second...It does not take much to look at the map of Asia and see how limited are China's open water testing options. The difference here is 'possible' and 'probable' testing areas. China should not test to the east because of Korea and Japan. Should not test to the south into the South China Sea because of commercial sea traffic. That leave two PROBABLE options: land and open water to the southeast.

Let us review the launch notification agreement between Russia and China: Notification will be given for launches of ballistic missiles of a range of more than 2,000 km in the direction of either of the signatories.

What this mean is that if China conduct a test launch -- ANY TEST LAUNCH -- towards the direction of Russia and if the launch is 2,000 km distance or greater, China is obligated to notify Russia of such a launch. It does not matter if the launch is completely inside Chinese territory or not. Same obligation for Russia if any Russian launch is towards the direction of China.

Did China notified Russia of any DF-21D land test launches?

DF-21 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

China has reportedly developed and tested the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) called DF-21D, with a maximum range of around 2,700 kilometres (1,700 mi),...

We do not know and neither Russia nor China is obligated to publicly publish such notifications. However, we can reasonably assume that China, as an orbital launch capable country, will be observed by US satellites 24/7/365.

So we can safely assume that fixed targets for the DF-21D are done simply because they were inside Chinese territory. That leave open water testing against moving targets in the southeast sea region with a narrow geographical gap between Taiwan and Japan.

Are you going to tell this forum and the silent readers that the international community have completely -- COMPLETELY -- missed multiple ballistic missile testing in clear and inclement weather, day and night, and at various distances in open sea south of Japan and that each test is very much a destructive one for the targets (multiple)?



So yes, China can declare the DF-21D 'operational' even when the D was still in the conceptual stage. Such declarations are meaningless in the absence of hard test data.

 

[gambit]

Tell me something, Mr. Technical expert. Do all Americans live in a deluded and denial world? A member post something reasonably coherent, you try to deny it, China develops a cutting edge DF-21D missile, you say it's not yet been tested. Why are you here? To deny every member of their rights to post something that is relevantly coherent? You remind me of Pentagon. lol Are you getting paid by your so called military experts or the FB of Idiots?

I have an American friend and we are brothers now but once in a while we got into some intense argument about world politics, but at the end of the day, we always agree to disagree. We call each other bro, all the time. So cheer up and do not behave like a cranky old American. We are all here for a simple reason - A healthy discussion.

That is funny that you can say the highlighted without realizing how you contradicted yourself.

According to you, to challenge a Chinese opinion is to infringe upon his right to speak from 'a cranky old American'. But when it comes to YOU and your challenges to your American 'bro', it is all fine and dandy, just a couple of guys engaging in healthy debates.

To me, anytime anyone consider a challenge to his opinion as an infringement upon his right to speak is indicative of an insecure mind.

By this conclusion, I can validate you have not met many Chinese members. I was invited to this forum by one of the present member here. The only forum I frequent most is Sino Defense. Google it if you have no clue.

I am a member of SinoDef. I do not post there much because certain members of the admin staff have exhibited clear bias towards Chinese members regarding meting out administrative levies, as in bogus ones. The individual outright lied about how I allegedly 'insulted' another member and that such behavior was 'common'. It was odd considering how I have less than 90 posts and that this person failed to show a pattern of such insulting behaviors throughout those 90 posts.

I have no interests in meeting any of the Chinese members here. About 1/3 of the engineers I work with are Chinese, from mainland China to Taiwan to Singapore. Not one of them is anything like the Chinese members here: racist and arrogant.

Now listen up..
A frog in a well sees only as much... but a frog out of the well sees things in an entirely different perspective. DO NOT start dictating terms like your USA does to other countries. Respect their rights, respect their freedom of speech and last but not the least do not try to be a bully. I say that because you have no clue who you are dealing with and who you will be dealing with. To me an average American is very “cocoonic”. I am not sure but I was told only less than 2% of American has a passport and most of them have not left the two shores of the two Oceans, may be a little more bother to go beyond the 49th parallel. Now may be more because of the Homeland Security requirement.

That is funny.

For the US military of nearly 2.5 millions combined active duty, Reserves, and National Guards, hundreds of thousands are overseas at any time and most usually do not have passports. Our time overseas can be as short as a few months to a few years, in peaceful assignments to combat actions. Myself? Am a Desert Storm veteran and been to post-Saddam Kuwait, as in immediately after we kicked out the Iraqi Army. American businessmen are all over the world. Same for American tourists. Same for US based NGOs like the Peace Corps. Same for US based religious missionaries. And this is not counting official US government officials. We travels, returns home, and form our own perspectives of the places we have been no matter how long the trips may be. Approximately 76% of 300 millions are over 18 yrs old so if we take merely %2 of that who have traveled overseas, that would produce millions of diverse opinions of diverse countries Americans have been to. Not counting military members who traveled overseas and who usualy do not need passports to do so.

So how many of your fellow mainland Chinese have been overseas, buddy, when most of Chinese income is about $5000/annum? I heard that because of the gender imbalance, there are literally men-only villages in China. Is that true? So how many of those men even know what a woman feels like, let alone been overseas?

You really think you are going to score any points with this lame attempt at insulting US?

 

[Psyops]

The Df-21D has been fully tested on moving targets but the PLA don't like to give out info on anything. The US already knows that it's fully operational and can hit moving targets. I doubt the US can detect this missile, which is why they are so scared of it.
Why would russia and china give out info to the US, this is between them.

Try harder kid, much much harder.