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China Offers Infrastructure Funding & Technology to Rebuild America Under Trump

So, yes, there is a possibility of Cold war.


So I'm correct, there's no cold war now, but yes such possibility does exists, even the chance of MAD exists no matter how unlikely.

The new administration for sure will adopt a more confrontational diplomacy, perhaps China may do the same, the media will get hysterical like they did on US-Russia a few years ago, protectionism may rise, even hyperinflation may arrive and kills every purchasing power, but nothing else changes. Moreover, all these won't change the harsh realities like worsening global BoP imbalance, dependence of foreign fund for US infra rebuilding, costs/interests (you have mentioned as well, fully agree) of money are rising, these are not media hypes, these are very real.
 
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Dealing with the US China utilizes 太極拳 philosophy at specific occasions. By absorbing the offensive force, guiding it with a swirling movement then release the shapeless form with explosive power China can divert hostile energy back at its origin. Although the US has always kept the Cold War mentality alive even after the fall of USSR, it would not accomplish anything as long Trump or any future POTUS insist on playing the containment game.

US simply does not have the luxury to dictate her terms on China. As stated before the One China Policy is a core principle that is non negotiable. Taiwan is not a bargaining chip for dealing with DPRK or whatever purpose Trump may have his eyes set on.

After observing his recent behavior, i'm inclined to believe the US does not produce any sensible leaders. Initially i thought US had some hope with an unorthodox leader for change. Turns out the inexperienced Trump also lacks visions in making America great again.
 
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在庆祝中国共产党成立95周年大会上的讲话, 2016年7月1日, 习近平:

中国不觊觎他国权益,不嫉妒他国发展,但决不放弃我们的正当权益。中国人民不信邪也不怕邪,不惹事也不怕事,任何外国不要指望我们会拿自己的核心利益做交易,不要指望我们会吞下损害我国主权、安全、发展利益的苦果。

Xi's speech at the Celebration Gathering of the 95th Anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party of China (July 1st, 2016, in Beijing): fight for the best, prepare for the worst.
 
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China needs to employ an army of IR business lawyers when signing such contracts.
In US, quite of sizable cost of a project goes to the lawyers.

You are right. As explained in post #21, US is cautious about state-fund's involvement in their critical assets, but China also make it clear that state-funds will lead "Rebuild America", particularly in infra. No more sovereign debts, only FDI from state funds like CIC (or SAFE, HKMA), I suggest US takes this offer.
Yes, FDI on tangible assets is preferred over useless paper money without any backing.

I believe that, as China decouples from US sovereign debt, Washington will cozy further up with other debt holders such as the Gulf sheikhdoms and Japan.
Good on them. If they are not careful, they will be left holding the "empty can".

The tectonic shift in China's geostrategic policy began since 2012-2013, unloading T-bills is one part of the overall policy
Do the unloading slowly and carefully in order to derive maximum returns.

overall policy (which includes Industry 2025, OBOR, LatAm, outbound FDI, strategic reserves, etc). Policies are made based on long-term vision of global geostrategic environment
China has the luxury of planning and implementing long term policies, and do not have to worry about the next election cycle. This is definitely a big advantage of China's homegrown and indigenous meritocratic, dynastic political system.

ever-worsening global BoP imbalance (trade, credit/debt) is simply not sustainable, unless aliens come to earth and join the debt feeding.
Wow! What? Aliens.... LMAO. :rofl:
 
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Seriously, I have no idea how far existing BoP imbalance can go. US is already largest debtor nation for some years, but her investment investment position continues to fall at break-neck speed. How? Such indebtness is largely driven by external holdings of T-bills, it's a major component of foreign portfolio investments in US, see US liabilities section below. Total federal debt (foreign and domestic holdings combined) now close to $20 trillion, federal deficit running at close to $590 billion/year, interests are increasing, and judging by even the most conservative CBO (Congressional Budget Office) forecasts, the fall has no end in sight.

intinv216-chart-01-png.343287

Untitled2.png

Who can increase T-bill holdings? Germanic/Nordic states are huge creditors, but they have to feed debts of over two-third of EU members, in fact as a whole region EU is slightly indebted, they aren't likely to increase T-bills holdings from current levels. So perhaps Japan, GCC states.

Untitled.png

China won't increase (hasn't been unloading since Oct 2013, at a rate of $100 billion per year ended Sep 2016), Germanic/Nordic can't help much, in fact Japan is also unloading, US should on GCC states, and "unknown" names hidden behind many proxy accounts to fund their deficits.

qtwqteq-png.360697

https://defence.pk/threads/whos-worlds-4th-largest-creditor-nation.455610/
http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/intinvnewsrelease.htm
 
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Seriously, I have no idea how far existing BoP imbalance can go. US is already largest debtor nation, but her investment investment position continues to fall at break-neck speed.

intinv216-chart-01-png.343287

Such indebtness is largely driven by external holdings of T-bills, it's a major component of foreign portfolio investments in US, see US liabilities section below:


Who will increase T-bill holdings? Germanic/Nordic states are huge creditors, but they has to feed debts of two-third of EU members, in fact as a whole region EU is slightly indebted, they aren't likely to increase T-bills holdings from current levels.


US should count on Japan, GCC states, and "unknown" names behind proxy accounts.

qtwqteq-png.360697

https://defence.pk/threads/whos-worlds-4th-largest-creditor-nation.455610/
http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/intinvnewsrelease.htm
Excellent summary!
I fine even balance sheet of a company hard to understand, always learn a lot from the evil banker! I heard ppl say murica financials are ugly, don't know THAT ugly!
 
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I heard ppl say murica financials are ugly, don't know THAT ugly!


Yes, and only getting uglier every year with new deficits mounting onto old debts, no end in sight. If you want to see good ones, see nations with large net external assets, check here: https://defence.pk/threads/whos-worlds-4th-largest-creditor-nation.455610/ for data related to Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, Singapore and Saudi Arabia.

For China (Mainland), details and trend analysis are in post #42 on https://defence.pk/threads/new-pivo...-largest-sovereign-wealth-funds.455072/page-3
  • Good news, overall IIP aka net assets increased by $101.7 billion to reach $1.7471 trillion by 2016Q3 as compared to Q2, overtaking Germany (Euro 1.5865 trillion or $1.6658 trillion, 2016Q3) as world's second largest creditor nation, trailing only behind Japan.
  • Reserve assets reduced to 50.28% of total assets (peak time was 60%+), still a long way to trim down, citing Japan is 14%. Taking into account of trade surplus (or current account surplus), my own estimation is that it will take another 5~7 years to trim down to Japan's level.
  • Outbound FDI stock increase to $1.3101 trillion or 20.18% of total assets, again long way to go citing inbound FDI stock is as heavy as 62.4% of total liabilities. Among all assets, outbound FDI is the most urgent item to increase, like mentioned above, considering values are in $ trillions, it takes at least another 5~7 years to rebalance.
  • Other investments (loans, trade credits to other nations, etc) increase to $1.5722 trillion or 24.22% of total assets, still room to increase. For many cash-strapped nations, China is increasing become an alternative source to IMF, see https://defence.pk/threads/cash-strapped-call-imf-or-china.472694/
  • Portfolio investments, financial derivatives, these only carry small weights and I don't see any urgency to increase given RMB is not freely convertible under capital account. As Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect progress these investments may expand.
  • Inbound FDI stock increase to $2.961 trillion (70%+ came from Hong Kong), as mentioned above it's 62.4% of total liabilities, China must match this weight level in outbound FDI.
  • Excellent progress in trimming other liabilities (mostly external loans), reduced by a staggering $107.0 billion vs last quarter.
 
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Dealing with the US China utilizes 太極拳 philosophy at specific occasions. By absorbing the offensive force, guiding it with a swirling movement then release the shapeless form with explosive power China can divert hostile energy back at its origin. Although the US has always kept the Cold War mentality alive even after the fall of USSR, it would not accomplish anything as long Trump or any future POTUS insist on playing the containment game.

US simply does not have the luxury to dictate her terms on China. As stated before the One China Policy is a core principle that is non negotiable. Taiwan is not a bargaining chip for dealing with DPRK or whatever purpose Trump may have his eyes set on.

After observing his recent behavior, i'm inclined to believe the US does not produce any sensible leaders. Initially i thought US had some hope with an unorthodox leader for change. Turns out the inexperienced Trump also lacks visions in making America great again.
Making America great by tweeting senseless rants, pissing off everyone who disagree with him, appointing former nut job CEO in powerful positions, overall lack of understanding in geopolitics.
 
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Making America great by tweeting senseless rants, pissing everyone who disagree with him, appointing former nut job CEO in powerful positions, overall lack of understanding in geopolitics.

That sums up well. What is more entertaining is the assumption that their interests must be cherished by everybody else. That self-fulfilling prophecy leads to crazies to take over the highest offices in the country.


1.8 trillion per year; that's larger than the GDP of many countries. Where does all the money go? I do not believe that illegal immigrants are siphoning that out. For one, those people are actually working more for less.

I believe systemized and legitimated corruption plays a major role in this picture. This may also explain the fierce in-fighting while the regime's executive powers are changing hands from one super elite class to another. In the end, the US elite does not bleed blue, red, and white, but entirely green.
 
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Yes, and only getting uglier every year with new deficits mounting onto old debts, no end in sight. If you want to see good ones, see nations with large net external assets, check here: https://defence.pk/threads/whos-worlds-4th-largest-creditor-nation.455610/ for data related to Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, Singapore and Saudi Arabia.

For China (Mainland), details and trend analysis are in post #42 on https://defence.pk/threads/new-pivo...-largest-sovereign-wealth-funds.455072/page-3
  • Good news, overall IIP aka net assets increased by $101.7 billion to reach $1.7471 trillion by 2016Q3 as compared to Q2, overtaking Germany (Euro 1.5865 trillion or $1.6658 trillion, 2016Q3) as world's second largest creditor nation, trailing only behind Japan.
  • Reserve assets reduced to 50.28% of total assets (peak time was 60%+), still a long way to trim down, citing Japan is 14%. Taking into account of trade surplus (or current account surplus), my own estimation is that it will take another 5~7 years to trim down to Japan's level.
  • Outbound FDI stock increase to $1.3101 trillion or 20.18% of total assets, again long way to go citing inbound FDI stock is as heavy as 62.4% of total liabilities. Among all assets, outbound FDI is the most urgent item to increase, like mentioned above, considering values are in $ trillions, it takes at least another 5~7 years to rebalance.
  • Other investments (loans, trade credits to other nations, etc) increase to $1.5722 trillion or 24.22% of total assets, still room to increase. For many cash-strapped nations, China is increasing become an alternative source to IMF, see https://defence.pk/threads/cash-strapped-call-imf-or-china.472694/
  • Portfolio investments, financial derivatives, these only carry small weights and I don't see any urgency to increase given RMB is not freely convertible under capital account. As Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect progress these investments may expand.
  • Inbound FDI stock increase to $2.961 trillion (70%+ came from Hong Kong), as mentioned above it's 62.4% of total liabilities, China must match this weight level in outbound FDI.
  • Excellent progress in trimming other liabilities (mostly external loans), reduced by a staggering $107.0 billion vs last quarter.
What happened to the unfunded liabilities that were not accounted for in the excess of 8 trillion USD. THE 20 trillion USD debt is lower than what it should be.
 
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Excellent summary!
I fine even balance sheet of a company hard to understand, always learn a lot from the evil banker! I heard ppl say murica financials are ugly, don't know THAT ugly!


Japan, Germany and GCC have net external assets to help US in "Rebuild America" if they choose to, now to understand Germany's environment, let's further explore Europe in more details.

Here is an analysis from EC, data are 2015 not 2016 but it gives a overview of the situation. More than 2/3 of European (or that of EU) nations are externally indebted, though as a whole region it's only slightly indebted due to Germany and a few smaller credit powerhouses like Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium. Berlin's primary focus is supporting widespread (and very deep in many cases like PIIGS, eastern Europe, large aggregate amounts in UK, France) debts in the region, hence I believe their US T-bills holdings will continue to maintain at a low level.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/graphs/2014-12-08_net_international_investment_position_en.htm

Graph of the week: The Net International Investment Position

NIIP is a sum of past current account deficits or surpluses adjusted for regular valuation changes, i.e.:

  • the non-performing debt sometimes needs to be written off;
  • the value of equity (stocks) is revalued upwards or downwards depending on the performance of individual stocks on the stock market;
  • valuation is also affected by changes in an exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies.
Financial investors use NIIP to GDP ratio to gauge the creditworthiness of a country. The more negative the NIIP to GDP, the more country becomes vulnerable to volatility in international financial markets. Many countries that accumulated a large negative NIIP in the run-up to the crisis lost access to financial markets when the crisis struck and needed to accept international financial assistance to cover the deficit in their budgets.

Net International Investment Positions (NIIP) (% of GDP)

gotw_niip.png

Source: DG ECFIN, Alert Mechanism Report

The graph above shows that the range of external liabilities in the EU is very wide and the risks to financial sustainability remain high in many member states.

Most of the economies with the largest negative international investment positions (NIIP) managed to reduce their large current account deficits or even shifted to external surpluses, which are sufficient to stabilise and slowly reduce their net external indebtedness over the medium term. This is notably the case for Ireland, Spain, Latvia, Romania and Portugal.

However, a mere stabilisation of external indebtedness may not be enough to restore full confidence, in particular for countries where the large NIIPs essentially reflect high level of debt (as opposed to countries where large negative NIIP is driven by significant inflows of FDIs). To reduce the NIIP to safer levels over the next decade, moderate to relatively large surpluses is necessary are all these countries.
 
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Trump should take note that when it comes to infrastructure, China wins hands down

By Curtis Stone (People's Daily Online) January 24, 2017


FOREIGN201701241021000573863061400.jpg


Photo credit: China Railway Major Bridge Reconnaissance & Design Institute (www.brdi.com.cn)

On January 20, 2017, Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States, a stunning accomplishment for the Washington outsider. Millions of ordinary American workers left behind in the modern economy placed their faith in Trump to revive the country and with that the narrative of America changed from one of exceptionalism to one of despair and decline.

Part of this new dark narrative centers on America’s crumbling infrastructure. In his inaugural speech, Trump said America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. His claim is backed by data. The report card by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which is released every four years, gives American infrastructure an overall grade of poor. The organization argues that infrastructure is critical for long-term economic growth and estimates that $3.6 trillion in investment is needed by 2020.

Trump wants to invest $1 trillion in infrastructure all across the nation to accelerate economic growth and increase productivity gains, but he has no clear plan on how to finance and carry out the proposed project.

When it comes to infrastructure, China wins hands down. “China spends more on economic infrastructure annually than North America and Western Europe combined,” according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Kingston University Professor of Economics Steve Keen told People’s Daily Online that Trump could learn a lot from China about infrastructure. “America lacks the capacity to plan and carry out large-scale projects, because the expertise needed to expand infrastructure has been lost.”

China’s economic success is testament to the advantages of its system and to Chinese ingenuity, and infrastructure is one of the nation’s strengths. Because the Chinese government is more involved in the nation’s development, leaders can plan, finance, and carry out very ambitious projects in a relatively short period of time. We should keep in mind that while Trump wants to rebuild America’s crumbling roads and bridges, China is already building megacities with populations that will be larger than some countries’ populations, and is frequently setting records with amazing infrastructure. Most recently, China connected the world’s longest heavy-duty steel arch bridge over the Yangtze River.

FOREIGN201701241023000053137523587.jpg


The Hutong (Shanghai-Nantong) Yangtze River Bridge in E China

Over the years, Trump has expressed admiration for China’s economic success. Based on his comments, it seems he wants America to be more like China in terms of growth. In November 2012, Trump wrote a tweet saying China is growing because it can build the world’s tallest building in 90 days, adding that there is too much red tape in America. In July 2013, Trump wrote a tweet saying China is building 50 brand new airports while America continues to rot. In October 2014, Trump wrote a tweet saying China overtook America as the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity, and criticized the government for wasting money while China builds airports and skyscrapers. Like other areas of infrastructure, China has been building skyscrapers at a rapid pace, and its rising skyline is impressive.

Skyscrapers are more than just structures needed for the operation of a country. They also represent the concentration of power and wealth. Jason Barr, Professor of Economics at Rutgers University-Newark, told People’s Daily Online that “buildings get taller as a city’s fortunes rise and get shorter or are built less often as a city’s fortunes decline.” A study by the Council of Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat reported that China completed 84 skyscrapers in 2016, totaling over 12 miles in height. In the same period, America completed seven skyscrapers, five of which are in a single city. China already has more completed buildings (150+ meters) than any other country in the world, and about 75 percent of the top 30 completed projects this year will be in China. According to Barr, this trend could continue for the next two or three decades. “Once China builds to house its rapid economic growth it will have a huge stock of buildings, so there will be less pressure to build as rapidly or as tall.”

China has something that America badly needs: infrastructure. However, protectionist trade policies toward China would do little to achieve the goal of reviving America, according to an analysis by Stratfor. The $1 billion-dollar Vista Tower, a condominium and hotel skyscraper under construction in Chicago, is being jointly developed by Chicago-based Magellan Development Group and China-based Wanda Group. The tower represents the largest real estate investment by a Chinese firm in Chicago and one of the largest in the U.S., according to the Chicago Tribune. The tower also represents the mutual benefits of the China-U.S. economic relationship. The two largest economies in the world will need to find a sweet spot in this highly interdependent relationship, and infrastructure could be a golden opportunity for both sides to leverage each other’s strengths for the benefit of both sides.

FOREIGN201701241030000104679516899.jpg


The Vista Tower (Photo: Wanda Group)
 
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Skyscrapers
The Hutong Yangtze River Bridge


Last year China alone competed 84 skyscrapers (200m+ completed), rest-of-world combined 44. By now, 43% of world's skyscrapers are in China.

The bridge is under construction now, uses half a million tonnes of steel, and breaks many world records. By now out of 20 longest bridges in the world, 15 are in China.

The list of infra can go on.
 
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Last year China alone competed 84 skyscrapers (200m+ completed), rest-of-world combined 44.

By now, 43% of world's skycrapers are in China.

https://defence.pk/threads/worlds-l...ucer-for-ninth-consecutive-year-china.473218/




Yes this bridge under construction now, uses half a million tonnes of steel, and breaks many world records.

Out of 20 longest bridges in the world, 15 are in China.

https://defence.pk/threads/20-longe...ncluding-longest-which-runs-164-85-km.471889/

These empirical evidence clearly lends support to @long_ 's assessment that:

基建狂魔 并非浪得虚名
China has a strong infrastructure construction capacity.


See if the US will see the change of times, or will stick to old mentality of a no-longer existing exceptionalism.
 
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