China hits India where it hurts

[Shotgunner51]

dont get agitated, it can lead to Brain hemorrhage ( propaganda is good but works well until reality starts biting ) . blinders wont help for long ~ now the question is <> is china moving towards recession or slowdown . i guess it will be the former . i could post 20 websites and journals just to prove my point . having said that i will just enumerate few points which would support my perception which are as follows :-
1) reliability of chinese official data
2) repercussions on growth , based on unsustainable and unviable investment in infrastructure
3) weak domestic consumption economy
4) crash prone stock markets ( nearly 35 % market cap wiped out recently ), which will dampen the sentiments and confidence of pu tong ren in economic growth which needs massive domestic consumption based paradigm shift{sellers must become buyers of the goods mass produced ( repercussions of falling exports ) } . moreover there is no simple way to switch to a 'consumption-driven' economy without the growth rate both falling and staying permanently lower.
5) internal debt which is as high as 280 % of gdp will be another cause of trouble as money expecting an average 7 percent annual growth rate and only get an average 4 percent annual growth rate results in bankruptcies and financial crisis that lead to a recession.
6) strong dollar and weak yuan , how about that ? as after increase in rates in US will further make the dollar strong and to the contrary yuan because of falling exports will get needful devaluations consequently more trouble as yuan will lose its fake sheen against puny america ( this is chinese perception of usa now ) , moreover domestic consumption in US is far more strong when compared to china , so now a myth buster <> china manipulated yuan against dollar but what happens if uncle sam starts manipulating the dollar as economic indicators have started giving positive sings for us economy . us can survive on strong dollar but china wont on weak yuan
7) collapse of the workforce and a demographic crisis are imminent and scrapping one child policy wont make much difference in troubled times (20 years down the line )

None of your points are backed by data, all empty rhetoric, futuristic like fortune telling. On stock market fluctuation, how many crash prone markets in the world have had such track records? If there is more than one (check 1929, 1973, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2008, ...), it tells one thing, i.e. Nothing.


The most illiterate part is on "internal debt", you are making a complete fool out of yourself:

• Do you even know what's "Internal Debt"? Households of any country has Gross Domestic Savings, which through the financial institutions is partially turned into credits (loans, non-equity securities etc) for businesses aka Domestic Credit to Private Sector. The higher the savings, the more support for domestic debt market. Other than private sector, domestic portion of Government Debt is also part of "internal debt". Learn these before you talk like an illiterate, you don't have any savings in the bank or what?

• Now for Gross Domestic Savings, China ranks world #3 in savings rate (48.5% of GDP, only behind Qatar & Brunei, check CIA 2014), and world #1 in total amount (exceeding US$ 5 trillion per annum). However for Domestic Credit to Private Sector, economies with highly developed financial markets like US (195% of GDP), Hong Kong SAR (233%), UK (141%), Singapore (132%) and Japan (188%) lead the ranks. Only low savings nations with least developed financial markets like Afghanistan (3.8%), Sierra Leone (4.9%), Chad (7.8%) are at the bottom. Backed by ultra high savings rate, domestic credit market in China is yet to be grown further.

• Then let's see Government Debt. China is 41.06% of GDP, you see a problem? While Brazil is 58.91%, india 66.1%, Euro Zone 92.1%, US 102.98%, Japan 230%, ...

So accordingly to you, what "internal debt" % is bad? Show the numbers.


P.S.: Data sources from international organizations that you deny:

The World Factbook
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | Data | Table
Gross domestic savings (current US$) | Data | Table
Country List Government Debt to GDP​

 

[Shotgunner51]

You are not getting what I am trying to put here. India is not powerful yet. I agree.

Leave out the "yet". Other than growing population headcount, there is no natural reserves, low intelligence quotient, low literacy, poor physique, bad health especially among stunted youth, your currently low-income indebted agrarian-heavy nation can only bet on foreign investment from creditor nations.

Yuan is an international currency, Seriously? Just recently it was recognized by IMF, before that what was it? And, a chinese cannot speak on currency value. Whole world knows how controlled and manipulated YUAN is. It is not a freely traded currency unlike the Dollar, Euro or Rupee. So subject to your forceful valuation of Yuan your boasting of creditor value going out of China is completely a bloated up one. If your commie Government has guts let it freely trade yuan for a year and then we would know who is actually eating wet noodles.

Goal post shifting again? Forget about the Yuan, there is one and only one dominant international reserve currency at the moment, issued by a de facto world "central bank". As long as the current international recycling system is "sustainable", the status quo flows hefty trade surpluses as well as global asset ownership to China through ever-expanding trade, so far very good. The question is being a trade deficit nation, major debtor nation, how can you "prosper" without replacing the current international reserve IOU's with yours?

 

[mirage]

None of your points are backed by data, all empty rhetoric, futuristic like fortune telling. On stock market fluctuation, how many crash prone markets in the world have had such track records? If there is more than one (check 1929, 1973, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2008, ...), it tells one thing, i.e. Nothing.


The most illiterate part is on "internal debt", you are making a complete fool out of yourself:

• Do you even know what's "Internal Debt"? Households of any country has Gross Domestic Savings, which through the financial institutions is partially turned into credits (loans, non-equity securities etc) for businesses aka Domestic Credit to Private Sector. The higher the savings, the more support for domestic debt market. Other than private sector, domestic portion of Government Debt is also part of "internal debt". Learn these before you talk like an illiterate, you don't have any savings in the bank or what?

• Now for Gross Domestic Savings, China ranks world #3 in savings rate (48.5% of GDP, only behind Qatar & Brunei, check CIA 2014), and world #1 in total amount (exceeding US$ 5 trillion per annum). However for Domestic Credit to Private Sector, economies with highly developed financial markets like US (195% of GDP), Hong Kong SAR (233%), UK (141%), Singapore (132%) and Japan (188%) lead the ranks. Only low savings nations with least developed financial markets like Afghanistan (3.8%), Sierra Leone (4.9%), Chad (7.8%) are at the bottom. Backed by ultra high savings rate, domestic credit market in China is yet to be grown further.

• Then let's see Government Debt. China is 41.06% of GDP, you see a problem? While Brazil is 58.91%, india 66.1%, Euro Zone 92.1%, US 102.98%, Japan 230%, ...

So accordingly to you, what "internal debt" % is bad? Show the numbers.


P.S.: Data sources from international organizations that you deny:

The World Factbook
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | Data | Table
Gross domestic savings (current US$) | Data | Table
Country List Government Debt to GDP​

oh yea ? by the way today shanghai stock exchange crashed again and trading was suspended ( lower circuit )as there were only sellers in the market because international funds have lost any interest in chinese economy .

as you only commented on internal debt crises which chinese fake economy is facing right now, which is nearly 29trillion $ 2015-16 expected to be 35 trillion by the year 2018

the stupid reply of yours make me laugh , i never asked the definition of what is internal debt , i know what is internal debt and all that crap your copied and pasted here is easily available on the internet . although you mentioned government debt too , which actually means provincial debt in the case of china as provincial banks funded waste infrastructure projects to inflate the GDP in past decade , half of loans are linked directly or indirectly to China’s real estate market which again is in serious trouble as property prices have started crashing by more than 25 % already in beijing and shanghai , as a result city commercial banks will start collapsing where real estate accounts for up to 40 percent of their loan portfolios. the combination of an overextended property sector and unsustainable finances of local governments will result in a wave of loan defaults furthermore damaging the regular banking system and potentially creating a wave of losses for investors and companies that have put money into shadow banking vehicles which has always been a trend in euphoric market conditions
as mentioned above : - reliability of chinese data and your second so called link { Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | Data | Table } does not have chinese figures , again a propaganda you are running here . although the other links are till 2014that is 2013-14 { art of camouflage posting an old data }

and mr economist , kindly write something on the other points an illiterate person like me have raised above , and please dont post fake futile outdated links ( i dont post links to any of the things i said as every data is fudged by communist party of china ), moreover everything i said is just simple economics which i studied in grade 12 in my school . no hard feelings as this is just a debate .
and as far as correlation of stock markets and economy is concerned , you kindly g00gle on that topic ,moreover turning a blind eye and ridiculing is different from facing the reality . your case suffice the former .

 

[Shotgunner51]

5) internal debt which is as high as 280 % of gdp will be another cause of trouble as money expecting an average 7 percent annual growth rate and only get an average 4 percent annual growth rate results in bankruptcies and financial crisis that lead to a recession.

See your illiterate post, you did say a high "internal debt" is a "cause of trouble", didn't you?

as you only commented on internal debt crises which chinese fake economy is facing right now, which is nearly 29trillion $ 2015-16 expected to be 35 trillion by the year 2018
the stupid reply of yours make me laugh , i never asked the definition of what is internal debt , i know what is internal debt and all that crap your copied and pasted here is easily available on the internet . although you mentioned government debt too , which actually means provincial debt in the case of china as provincial banks funded waste infrastructure projects to inflate the GDP in past decade , half of loans are linked directly or indirectly to China’s real estate market which again is in serious trouble as property prices have started crashing by more than 25 % already in beijing and shanghai , as a result city commercial banks will start collapsing where real estate accounts for up to 40 percent of their loan portfolios. the combination of an overextended property sector and unsustainable finances of local governments will result in a wave of loan defaults furthermore damaging the regular banking system and potentially creating a wave of losses for investors and companies that have put money into shadow banking vehicles which has always been a trend in euphoric market conditions
as mentioned above : - reliability of chinese data and your second so called link { Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | Data | Table } does not have chinese figures , again a propaganda you are running here . although the other links are till 2014that is 2013-14 { art of camouflage posting an old data }

So now you claimed you knew "internal debt" comprised of Domestic Credit To Private Sector? So, how high is Domestic Credit To Private Sector (% of GDP) causing a trouble? Give a benchmark line.

Note: Keep the World Bank link for Domestic Credit To Private Sector, they are updating the database at the moment, check again when they are done. It doesn't change the fact that Hong Kong, US, Japan, UK are leading, and Afghanistan, Sierra Leone & Chad at the bottom. For China didn't you check another link which is using WB database? Check, it's 141.8%, a too moderate figure considering China's ultra high savings rate:
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) in China​

Just answer these:

• Is 141.8% of Domestic Credit To Private Sector causing trouble?
• Is 41.06% of Government Debt causing trouble?
• If the answers to above are no, then what load of craps you have been talking. Are you illiterate?

No more "will" "shoulda" "woulda" crap talks like you are a fortune teller. Nor invent numbers like you are a magician. You are just a joker telling everyone how illiterate, obsessed and delusional you are.

 

[mirage]

See your illiterate post, you did say a high "internal debt" is a "cause of trouble", didn't you?




So now you claimed you knew "internal debt" comprised of Domestic Credit To Private Sector? So, how high is Domestic Credit To Private Sector (% of GDP) causing a trouble? Give a benchmark line.

Note: Keep the World Bank link for Domestic Credit To Private Sector, they are updating the database at the moment, check again when they are done. It doesn't change the fact that Hong Kong, US, Japan, UK are leading, and Afghanistan, Sierra Leone & Chad at the bottom. For China didn't you check another link which is using WB database? Check, it's 141.8%, a too moderate figure considering China's ultra high savings rate:
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) in China​

Just answer these:

• Is 141.8% of Domestic Credit To Private Sector causing trouble?
• Is 41.06% of Government Debt causing trouble?
• If the answers to above are no, then what load of craps you have been talking. Are you illiterate?

No more "will" "shoulda" "woulda" crap talks like you are a fortune teller. Nor invent numbers like you are a magician. You are just a joker telling everyone how illiterate, obsessed and delusional you are.

no i am not , you keep on justifying high saving rates all the time though but forget these savings are reinvested by local banks and shadow financial institutions run by CPC to private sector ( falling exports wont help them repay ) companies and sick government units ( central government have to refinance local banks for survival ,but to what extent ? ) and in real estate ( it is crashing too like anything ). there is nothing in your replies apart from high savings rate that too is fudged . now tell me one thing self proclaimed economist , 141% so called domestic credit figures you have quoted relates to what ????????? problem comes during repayments and refinancing , dont give that crap logic of your always. none of your so called references are up todate recent financial year figures , they are 2013-14 financial year , the fudging happened as always happens with chinese official figures rescently when chinese government had to downgrade their own $hitty growth forecasts which in fact are too overstated growth estimate , moreover i dont have problem with the debt , it is the repayment and quality of the debt , which you are incapable to understand i guess .

 

[ThaniOruvan]

Leave out the "yet". Other than growing population headcount, there is no natural reserves, low intelligence quotient, low literacy, poor physique, bad health especially among stunted youth, your currently low-income indebted agrarian-heavy nation can only bet on foreign investment from creditor nations.

Goal post shifting again? Forget about the Yuan, there is one and only one dominant international reserve currency at the moment, issued by a de facto world "central bank". As long as the current international recycling system is "sustainable", the status quo flows hefty trade surpluses as well as global asset ownership to China through ever-expanding trade, so far very good. The question is being a trade deficit nation, major debtor nation, how can you "prosper" without replacing the current international reserve IOU's with yours?

All those profiling, you can find it in chunks as well in China. From where else you could have learnt such a narrative list. Of course your own soil. Low intelligence, malnutrition, stunted, poor natural resources blah blah.

Shows your commie Government imposed education and thought process.
Chinese sympathy-secreting. First you were speaking sky-high of YUAN and suddenly jumped to global asset ownership.
Assets ? How much ? Do you own even higher than the Americans and the Europeans? At least Russians ? Come on !
You guys, or even everyone else except the Chinese commie government, don't even have full information on what actually happened in Tiananmen. Who is going to buy your 'growth' stories. High on weeds this fella !

 

[nang2]

All those profiling, you can find it in chunks as well in China. From where else you could have learnt such a narrative list. Of course your own soil. Low intelligence, malnutrition, stunted, poor natural resources blah blah.

Shows your commie Government imposed education and thought process.
Chinese sympathy-secreting. First you were speaking sky-high of YUAN and suddenly jumped to global asset ownership.
Assets ? How much ? Do you own even higher than the Americans and the Europeans? At least Russians ? Come on !
You guys, or even everyone else except the Chinese commie government, don't even have full information on what actually happened in Tiananmen. Who is going to buy your 'growth' stories. High on weeds this fella !

The same commie government quickly provided universal education that eliminated illiteracy. The same commie government realized the almost universal immunization. The same commie government over the night toppled the long history of discrimination against women. When the same commie government took control of China, Chinese were poorer than Indians. So, for what is worth, I always give my share of credit to the same commie government.

 

[ThaniOruvan]

The same commie government quickly provided universal education that eliminated illiteracy. The same commie government realized the almost universal immunization. The same commie government over the night toppled the long history of discrimination against women. When the same commie government took control of China, Chinese were poorer than Indians. So, for what is worth, I always give my share of credit to the same commie government.

Good for you and your compatriots.

 

[Shotgunner51]

First you were speaking sky-high of YUAN and suddenly jumped to global asset ownership.
Assets ? How much ? Do you own even higher than the Americans and the Europeans? At least Russians ? Come on !

I agree, on this talk about global asset ownership let's not jump to conclusion without checking, hyping is meaningless. Well give me a moment to check sources and reply alright? We can discuss more later, in a normal tone if you see fit.

 

[oprih]

India is a poor country that is trying to act rich and benevolent.

 

[ThaniOruvan]

I agree, on this talk about global asset ownership let's not jump to conclusion without checking, hyping is meaningless. Well give me a moment to check sources and reply alright? We can discuss more later, in a normal tone if you see fit.

I don't want to get into a fight. Informative argument is always welcome. Please take your time.

India is a poor country that is trying to act rich and benevolent.

I heard Philippines is trying to compete with India in IT and ITES. All the Best !