China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

I know but it's still not enough. You need 2.1 for replacement rate.

And because there will definitely be people who choose to be single, have no kids, or just 1 kid, the other remaining couples need to have 3 or more children to reach 2.1 TFR. Which means China will never be able to reach replacement fertility rate as long as the two child policy remains.

in rural areas,three children is becoming popular,but in cities,as you know,high level living cost is higher and higher,normally parents are supposed to buy an appartment for their son and grant a lot of money for their daughter when they get married separately:
in 3rd teer cities,1 million yuans RMB for one son and 2 millions yuan RMB fro two sons,and 3 millions yuan RMB for three sons.....
This kind of cost would be higher if you are in Shanghai mega or beijing mega:5 millions for one son ....
Today even China gov allow people to have 5 children,they still will not do it coz high level living cost is too high....

 

[beijingwalker]

India is unprepared for a near future when it will be the world’s most populous country
https://qz.com/1051533/india-is-unp...-it-will-be-the-worlds-most-populous-country/

 

[Mista]

Over the past 30 years, western economists gradually learned that whatever they learned from their western economics books doesn't apply to China. China is unique, what always works in the west doesn't work in China. That is the main reason that they kept predicting China's imminent crash for over 3 decades.

It's only a minority of economists who attempt to predict that. Don't put them all in the same basket.

Reputable institutions such as the IMF are generally optimistic of China's growth in the past few decades.

 

[Martian2]

Of course you don't remember, because you ran off embarrassed and defeated.

An the US government knocked on your door for weeks? This is why no one takes you seriously Marty.

Stick to the topic. I'm not that interesting.

India cannot replicate China's success for many reasons.

Taiwan industrialized early (such as manufacturing machine tools in 1954).

Taiwan accumulated its first trade surplus in 1970.

Taiwan funded mainland China's industrialization by transferring technology and capital to the mainland for 40 years.

Today, China is displacing Taiwan in formerly Taiwan-dominated industries such as notebook computers, LCD, LED, solar panels, etc.

Given China's economies of scale and technological level, there is no country in the world that can displace China from its dominant position in world trade of manufactured goods.

India runs a large trade deficit of $100 billion annually, because it can't compete. This is a vicious circle. No capital means no investment in R&D. Anyway, India is decades behind everybody else technologically. India has zero chance of advancing up the economic and technological ladder.

Indian per-capita GDP was around #140 in the world ten years ago.

India is still ranked at #142 in the world in per-capita GDP today. See? No progress.

 

[Mista]

in rural areas,three children is becoming popular,but in cities,as you know,high level living cost is higher and higher,normally parents are supposed to buy an appartment for their son and grant a lot of money for their daughter when they get married separately:
in 3rd teer cities,1 million yuans RMB for one son and 2 millions yuan RMB fro two sons,and 3 millions yuan RMB for three sons.....
This kind of cost would be higher if you are in Shanghai mega or beijing mega:5 millions for one son ....
Today even China gov allow people to have 5 children,they still will not do it coz high level living cost is too high....

Then family planning should be abolished to alleviate the problem.

China's population will still inevitably decline, but at least the pace will be slower and more manageable.

And really? 1 million RMB for an apartment in 3rd tier cities?

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

Then family planning should be abolished to alleviate the problem.

China's population will still inevitably decline, but at least the pace will be slower and more manageable.

And really? 1 million RMB for an apartment in 3rd tier cities?

Well policy changing is not made in one day there is a process
The crime of counter-revolution has only been abolished in 1997 when PRC has already been established for 50 years and the reform and opening-up policy has been adopted for 20 years.
The consistency of policies is very important for China,if tomorrow China abolishes its two children policy,the offfcials and employees work under this system,where should they go,it may even create huge social instability .
This two children policy system is not like alipayment or wechat payment which can be easily done with a smart phone .


2) of course,i am talking about 100 square meters,city like chagnzhou of jiangsu province(rich province)where i live, the unit price is 12000 rmb per square meter(construction unit not the real that you can get,normally you buy an appartment of 100 square meters,you get 85 square meters for real,that is the way it is in China,they said it is copied from Hong Kong style,i do not like it )
two years ago,in Changzhou , maybe 0.5 millions RMB,today at least 1 millions.....
Trust me ,it is very expensive in China to buy an appatment...............

 

[F-22Raptor]

I think China will still surpass the US in total GDP, maybe around 2027. But beyond that, whether China will have a significant lead in GDP, I'm not so sure. China is projected to grow around 3-4% around 2030 and maybe 2% by 2050.

I agree that aging population is a huge challenge for China's future global economic dominance. They really should abandon any form of family planning right now.

Time will tell about the GDP, but China is unlikely to ever have the full spectrum dominance the US enjoys. They don't have the network of alliances like the US, and China has to many hostile nations bordering it. They also don't have the cultural influence.

The US military just started its long term modernization a couple years ago. The level of investment will be in the tens of trillions over the next few decades, with full scale modernization of the entire force. China is not going to be able to attain military overmatch against the US.

The US has world class companies, universities, and talent. Case in point? 7 US researchers won Nobel Prizes in the Sciences last month. How about China? Zero.

You see, China is just another competitor. That's all.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It's how it's been throughout the history!!! It's beyond the mortals to change it!!!! Power and wealth have been being rotated among the nations!!! At the end of the day, it's all like "Gone with the Wind"!!! As for the Ehl-i Iman, "Frankly Dear, I don't give a damn!!!"

 

[F-22Raptor]

China's strength lie with her people, culture and hardworking ethnics. barely 20 years ago China's GDP ranked barely top 10 and now the second still gaining ground. Both UK and US climbed to the top through manufacturing and trade, so as long as China holds on to those two top spots China holds all the cards now and in the future, other than that, China now is trying to undermine dollar based global economy, if that can be changed, US will go down the drain very fast.

Once US doesn't produce anything and has nothing to offer to this world, US dollars will lose its appeal. US is obvious down this path.

So the "US doesn't produce anything and has nothing to offer the world?" Your completely out of touch with reality. Our contribution in space exploration and astrophysics alone obliterates anything China has contributed in the last century.

Go play in your sandbox kid.

 

[AViet]

China's national power keeps growing. Relatively speaking, US national power is being diminished. Why?

President Donald Trump thinks it's the economy. Currently, China grows at 6.5% annually. In contrast, the US grows only at 2%. It doesn't take a genius to realize China will become the dominant economy in 15 years.

To fix the problem, President Trump canceled the TPP because the trade detriments (more imports) to the American economy was greater than the benefits (more exports).

President Trump is trying to remake America into a new China. He wants America to become a great manufacturing power and he's trying to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

The logic is sound. Economic strength leads to military strength. For example, China seems to outbuild the United States in large naval ships every year. Thus, growing the US economy above its long-term average of 2% is imperative.

However, China's exports ($2 trillion) are only a small part of the Chinese economy ($12 trillion). The bulk of China's economy is dependent on the internal domestic market.

Every year, China's domestic economy keeps growing robustly because there is a technological upgrade propagating from the advanced eastern coastal cities and inward into less-developed China. This process will continue until all of China is as developed as the coastal cities. Thus, China's nominal per-capita GDP will eventually catch up to the United States.

This means the most important metric in evaluating future Chinese and US economic power is population size.

China has a population of 1.4 billion people.
The US has a population of 0.3 billion people.

There is no way for the US to offset China's 4-times population advantage.

Let's look at all of the important metrics.

China (3,053 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) consumes 34% more total energy annually than the United States (2,273 MTOE) and this gap grows wider every year.

China (5,920 TeraWatt-hours) consumes 51% more electricity annually than the United States (3,913 TeraWatt-hours).

China (87,000 units) installs more industrial robots per year than the United States (31,400 units).

China produces and installs ($27.5 billion) more machine tools than the United States ($7.4 billion) every year.

It is obvious that China's overall economy experiences a higher rate of technological upgrade than the US every year. China invests more in industrial robots and machine tools.

As the Chinese per-capita technological investments move toward the US average, this diminishes the economic lead from the earlier American industrialization. China is catching up in per-capita levels of industrial robots and machine tools in its economy.

Since the China-US economic technological level is converging, this leaves population as the only determinant.

Since China's population is four times larger than the US, China's economy will keep growing until it is four times the US economy.

The most important is that China has 1.3 billion of extremely high-IQ people, on average, while the US does not have such advantage and will never have.

In the knowledge economy of 21 century, it does matter a lot.

 

[Martian2]

Time will tell about the GDP, but China is unlikely to ever have the full spectrum dominance the US enjoys. They don't have the network of alliances like the US, and China has to many hostile nations bordering it. They also don't have the cultural influence.

The US military just started its long term modernization a couple years ago. The level of investment will be in the tens of trillions over the next few decades, with full scale modernization of the entire force. China is not going to be able to attain military overmatch against the US.

The US has world class companies, universities, and talent. Case in point? 7 US researchers won Nobel Prizes in the Sciences last month. How about China? Zero.

You see, China is just another competitor. That's all.

No. China has too many friendly nations bordering it.

Russia supplies China with oil and gas.

Kazakhstan supplies China with oil.

Turkmenistan supplies China with natural gas.

New Zealand has a free-trade-agreement with China.

Pakistan has joined China in CPEC.

Taiwan has a free-trade-agreement with China called ECFA.

Australia has a free-trade-agreement with China called ChAFTA.

ASEAN has a free-trade-agreement with China.

South Korea has a free-trade-agreement with China.

Mongolia is discussing a free-trade-agreement with China.

China is the perfect economic hub in populated Asia. With economic strength, China can develop the most advanced technologies in the world in the upcoming decades.

 

[antonius123]

Funny you mention India's population. There population is expected to reach 1.7 billion by 2070. By 2100, India will have 600-700 million more people than China. Whether they can successfully sustain high growth rates is yet to be seen, but India may very well surpass China's economy over time.

India may .. but the challenge that she will face will be so enormous, for these reasons:

1. Limited resources on earth to sustain high economic growth for 1.5 billions population.

2. 4th Industrial revolution, means robot can compete with human labour in term of cost, efficiency, and flexibility.

Industry 4 also means that developed nation can compete with developing nations in term of labour intense manufacturing. That will reduce "competitive advantage" of "cheap labour" that china used to enjoy to transform her economy, that India and other developing countries can't repeat in the future.

One thing that you have to note is: big population could be burden for economic as well if they cannot create manufacturing adequately.

 

[takeitwithyou]

China= regional power(shared)
US= Hyperpower(sole)

 

[Indika]

Whatever makes you feel better Marty. I remember a year or two ago, you tried to convince people that the US military had no major strategic defense programs under development. You failed miserably.

You also tried to convince us that the FBI showed up at your door because you were posting pro-Chinese messages. That was a lie.

Take his predictions with a grain of salt, folks.

You crashed his boasting party, too bad.

If US with 300million ppl has a economy of 20trillion and china with 1.2billion has a economy of 15trillion then US has better productivity. If US adds 10million ppl china needs to add 3 times that to keep up the size of economy to compete with US. If we extrapolate the scenario even if US reaches 600 million ppl it still have better per capita wheres china needs to actually grow 3 times the size of US economy to match the US per capita.

 

[antonius123]

You crashed his boasting party, too bad.

If US with 300million ppl has a economy of 20trillion and china with 1.2billion has a economy of 15trillion then US has better productivity. If US adds 10million ppl china needs to add 3 times that to keep up the size of economy to compete with US. If we extrapolate the scenario even if US reaches 600 million ppl it still have better per capita wheres china needs to actually grow 3 times the size of US economy to match the US per capita.

But that could also means that china has much more ample room to grow higher than usa. Basically china is still developing country judging from her GDP per capita.