China focuses on naval development
President Hu Jintao's recent call for a strong Chinese navy won't threaten U.S. military dominance any time soon. But in China, where symbolism is often as important as substance, the address was seen by analysts as serving two functions: to help build a policy consensus and signal his near complete grip on the political field in advance of a key party congress next fall.
"This is very significant," said Ni Lixiong, a professor at the Shanghai Institute of Political Science and Law. "Though this does not mean immediate budget increases, it is a strong signal that lays out our future direction."
State media gave prominent play Thursday to comments by Hu a day earlier at a Communist Party navy meeting on the need for a powerful navy prepared "at any time" for military struggle.
"We should make sound preparations for military struggles and ensure that the forces can effectively carry out missions at any time," Hu reportedly said.
China's navy has been its weakest link under a military structure that traditionally has stressed a homegrown manpower advantage for its army and borrowed Soviet technology for its air force. But even as it restructures, China is keen to bolster its weak third leg.
The aim is to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence and safeguarding the seaborne oil and other resources needed to power its booming economy. China has considered Taiwan a part of its territory since a split by the Nationalists and Communists in 1949 after protracted civil war.
China's growing military profile has raised eyebrows at the Pentagon, which fears an erosion to its military dominance in the Pacific and beyond.
"Previously, China did not have the capability to maintain anything but symbolic naval presence on the approaches to the mainland," the U.S. Defense Department said in its 2006 "Military Power of the People's Republic of China" report. "The PLA Navy, however, appears interested in expanding its presence through the Straits of Malacca and into the Indian Ocean."
Of significance in China's one-party state with its emphasis on political theater, analysts said, was Hu's choice of venues. Rather than addressing an audience from all major service branches, he chose a meeting of naval specialists, a signal that the navy can expect special treatment in the bureaucratic battle for attention and resources.
Also significant was the timing. The military has been an area of political weakness for Hu. The president's resume doesn't boast the years of military service many of his predecessors have. Nor did it help that ex-president Jiang Zemin held on to his last military post until late 2005, more than two years into Hu's administration.
But the notably careful leader's confident military tone Wednesday and his appearance in military green immediately following a purge of a key Jiang loyalist in Shanghai suggests he faces no significant political opposition across the Chinese political spectrum.
While China has made no secret of its desire for a credible "blue water" navy, its blistering economy, US$1 trillion in foreign reserves and growing confidence place it in an increasingly strong position to fund its objective.
"It may be time for them to get their fair share," said Ralph Cossa, president of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum CSIS, a think tank. "A lot of other sectors of modernization took priority."
In March, China announced a 14 percent increase in overall military spending to US$35 billion, the latest in a string of double-digit increases. Some U.S. defense analysts say the actual figure might be two or three times higher.
Despite concerns by some people in Washington, however, Beijing has significant challenges ahead before it offers a military threat to the U.S., some analysts say. Politically it is also wary of any step that might appear too provocative in Washington under its "peaceful rise" strategy, given the importance of U.S. trade for ongoing domestic stability and development.
China's military spending, even at the higher figure, is still a fraction of U.S. levels. China's dream of acquiring an aircraft carrier is years, perhaps decades, off of being realized. And it faces enormous challenges revamping a labor-intensive, technologically challenged military into a modern, flexible fighting force.
In his comments Wednesday, Hu called for "strict management of the navy according to law."
Some analysts read this as a veiled reference to corruption in the ranks. This month, a military court handed down a life sentence to vice-admiral Wang Shouye on embezzlement charges, according to Hong Kong's pro-mainland Wen Wei Po newspaper. He is reportedly the most senior Chinese military officer ever jailed for corruption.
"It's not only a reference to the vice-admiral, but the corruption, irregularities and general lack of discipline," said Andrew Yang, a military analyst with Taiwan's Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taiwan. "He plans to emphasize discipline and rule of law."
Beyond China's aircraft carrier plans, U.S. military planners are watching closely any steps Beijing takes to expand its deep-water anti-submarine capability, to develop large numbers of nuclear attack submarines or to increase open war training. Washington also has called on China repeatedly to be more forthcoming on its military budgets, plans and capabilities.
China first voiced a desire for an indigenous aircraft carrier in the late 1970s, according to Pentagon reports before buying, in 1985, the HMAS Melbourne carrier from Australia. The hull was scraped but not before engineers studied the ship and built a replica of the flight deck for pilot training, the U.S. Department of Defense said. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Chinese purchased two Soviet carriers -- the Minsk in 1998 and the Kiev in 2000 -- which they turned into floating military theme parks after careful studying their designs.
Some analysts say the Chinese could have an operational carrier by 2015, others say it probably will be well beyond 2020. A working carrier would require a huge increase in its military budget, analysts said, as well as overcoming significant technological hurdles and significantly upgrading the skill of its navy personnel.
"They're still far behind for the foreseeable future for the United States, and also for India," Yang said.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/news/archives/editorial/200713/99023.htm
President Hu Jintao's recent call for a strong Chinese navy won't threaten U.S. military dominance any time soon. But in China, where symbolism is often as important as substance, the address was seen by analysts as serving two functions: to help build a policy consensus and signal his near complete grip on the political field in advance of a key party congress next fall.
"This is very significant," said Ni Lixiong, a professor at the Shanghai Institute of Political Science and Law. "Though this does not mean immediate budget increases, it is a strong signal that lays out our future direction."
State media gave prominent play Thursday to comments by Hu a day earlier at a Communist Party navy meeting on the need for a powerful navy prepared "at any time" for military struggle.
"We should make sound preparations for military struggles and ensure that the forces can effectively carry out missions at any time," Hu reportedly said.
China's navy has been its weakest link under a military structure that traditionally has stressed a homegrown manpower advantage for its army and borrowed Soviet technology for its air force. But even as it restructures, China is keen to bolster its weak third leg.
The aim is to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence and safeguarding the seaborne oil and other resources needed to power its booming economy. China has considered Taiwan a part of its territory since a split by the Nationalists and Communists in 1949 after protracted civil war.
China's growing military profile has raised eyebrows at the Pentagon, which fears an erosion to its military dominance in the Pacific and beyond.
"Previously, China did not have the capability to maintain anything but symbolic naval presence on the approaches to the mainland," the U.S. Defense Department said in its 2006 "Military Power of the People's Republic of China" report. "The PLA Navy, however, appears interested in expanding its presence through the Straits of Malacca and into the Indian Ocean."
Of significance in China's one-party state with its emphasis on political theater, analysts said, was Hu's choice of venues. Rather than addressing an audience from all major service branches, he chose a meeting of naval specialists, a signal that the navy can expect special treatment in the bureaucratic battle for attention and resources.
Also significant was the timing. The military has been an area of political weakness for Hu. The president's resume doesn't boast the years of military service many of his predecessors have. Nor did it help that ex-president Jiang Zemin held on to his last military post until late 2005, more than two years into Hu's administration.
But the notably careful leader's confident military tone Wednesday and his appearance in military green immediately following a purge of a key Jiang loyalist in Shanghai suggests he faces no significant political opposition across the Chinese political spectrum.
While China has made no secret of its desire for a credible "blue water" navy, its blistering economy, US$1 trillion in foreign reserves and growing confidence place it in an increasingly strong position to fund its objective.
"It may be time for them to get their fair share," said Ralph Cossa, president of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum CSIS, a think tank. "A lot of other sectors of modernization took priority."
In March, China announced a 14 percent increase in overall military spending to US$35 billion, the latest in a string of double-digit increases. Some U.S. defense analysts say the actual figure might be two or three times higher.
Despite concerns by some people in Washington, however, Beijing has significant challenges ahead before it offers a military threat to the U.S., some analysts say. Politically it is also wary of any step that might appear too provocative in Washington under its "peaceful rise" strategy, given the importance of U.S. trade for ongoing domestic stability and development.
China's military spending, even at the higher figure, is still a fraction of U.S. levels. China's dream of acquiring an aircraft carrier is years, perhaps decades, off of being realized. And it faces enormous challenges revamping a labor-intensive, technologically challenged military into a modern, flexible fighting force.
In his comments Wednesday, Hu called for "strict management of the navy according to law."
Some analysts read this as a veiled reference to corruption in the ranks. This month, a military court handed down a life sentence to vice-admiral Wang Shouye on embezzlement charges, according to Hong Kong's pro-mainland Wen Wei Po newspaper. He is reportedly the most senior Chinese military officer ever jailed for corruption.
"It's not only a reference to the vice-admiral, but the corruption, irregularities and general lack of discipline," said Andrew Yang, a military analyst with Taiwan's Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taiwan. "He plans to emphasize discipline and rule of law."
Beyond China's aircraft carrier plans, U.S. military planners are watching closely any steps Beijing takes to expand its deep-water anti-submarine capability, to develop large numbers of nuclear attack submarines or to increase open war training. Washington also has called on China repeatedly to be more forthcoming on its military budgets, plans and capabilities.
China first voiced a desire for an indigenous aircraft carrier in the late 1970s, according to Pentagon reports before buying, in 1985, the HMAS Melbourne carrier from Australia. The hull was scraped but not before engineers studied the ship and built a replica of the flight deck for pilot training, the U.S. Department of Defense said. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Chinese purchased two Soviet carriers -- the Minsk in 1998 and the Kiev in 2000 -- which they turned into floating military theme parks after careful studying their designs.
Some analysts say the Chinese could have an operational carrier by 2015, others say it probably will be well beyond 2020. A working carrier would require a huge increase in its military budget, analysts said, as well as overcoming significant technological hurdles and significantly upgrading the skill of its navy personnel.
"They're still far behind for the foreseeable future for the United States, and also for India," Yang said.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/news/archives/editorial/200713/99023.htm
