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China Economy Forum

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You are so interesting in china economy, why? you post too much negative news about china, jealous of china economy?? Keep doing it, I know it can make you happy, at these moment, you can get the happiness from these, can let you forget your can't- compared-with-china economy. Keep live in the negative illusion, I know in dream, you indian are optimistic!!!
 
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BBC News - Newsnight - China's appetite for work and wealth

China's appetite for work and wealth


PAXMAN IN CHINA

Jeremy Paxman reports from China for the BBC's Newsnight programme
Watch at 22:30GMT on BBC Two on Mon 23, Tue 24 and afterwards on the BBC iPlayer
China's huge population and booming economy is turning into a new world power, but what is creating that success, how secure is it, and what does it mean for the UK and other Western economies, asks Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman.
There was a minor riot in Beijing last week. The Apple store was attacked.
Its offence? Not being willing to sell sufficient numbers of the iPhone 4S.
Buyers had queued all night and things turned ugly when it became clear that many of those in line had not the faintest idea what an iPhone was.
They belonged to teams hired by middlemen who knew that every handset bought was immediately resalable for an additional hundred pounds.
The teams of the tech-unsavvy were identifiable to each other by home-made armbands, and when the store realised what was happening it suspended sales. That was when the eggs started flying.
In London they riot to steal things. In Beijing, they riot because they cannot buy them.
China proclaims itself a secular country. But that is not what it looks like. For a first-time visitor to China, the most astonishing aspect of the country is the worship of wealth.

The whole economy floats on a sea of migrant workers willing to go anywhere for a day's pay
The mayor of London may like to be seen riding around on a bicycle. The mayor of Beijing - once the greatest concentration of cyclists in the world - wouldn't be seen dead on one.
Even China Daily, a sort of hymn-sheet to the Communist Party, reads like the FT much of the time.
Flaunting wealth
It reported last Monday (16 January) that there were more Rolls Royces bought in China last year than anywhere else on earth.
Audi now sells more of its brand here than in Germany. The company confidently expects to exceed its target of one million sales between 2011 and 2013, "as long as we can grow annually at 8 percent", as a senior executive asserted blithely. The target was set less than a year and a half ago.

Chinese cities are matching Western rivals for conspicuous consumerism
It is all surface froth, of course. There will still be one billion, two hundred and ninety-nine million Chinese who do not buy an Audi. But it is the flaunting of wealth that is so shocking, because the whole economy floats on a sea of migrant workers willing to go anywhere for a day's pay.
You can hear them hammering on the construction sites and see them clambering across the half-built highway towers from dawn until long after dusk.
Victorian Britain was perhaps rather similar, and the smog of Charles Dickens' London finds its counterpart in the murk which envelopes Beijing on windless days and tears at your throat like sandpaper.
Work ethic
Beijing itself - once, apparently, a charming ancient city - has been torn down and replaced with a traffic-jammed assortment of functional concrete blocks interspersed with the occasional quite stunning pieces of modern architecture.

China is the great emerging force in the world, and the sense of apprehension everywhere else must be good
The old men of the politburo must look out on it all from the backs of their limousines and smile. Chairman Mao's Cultural Revolution sent intellectuals to live as peasants. Embracing capitalism has created a class of urban plutocrats.
China is the great emerging force in the world, and the sense of apprehension everywhere else must be good.
It is customary to attribute China's new wealth solely to its abundance of cheap labour. But it would have been impossible if the country's potential entrepreneurs had not possessed the sort of work ethic which drove the captains of Victorian industry.
People seriously want to get rich. It may not be especially attractive. But it is more than enough to see off soft, Western welfare states which have sold their future for the sake of cheaper televisions and trainers.

China is moving into hi-tech industries such as animation
Dozy Western governments seem to believe that it does not matter much, because somehow their comfortable democracies will coast along on the fruits of intellectual invention.
These governments bask in the belief that we can outsource metal-bashing and shirt-stitching because the brains which devise the products nestle inside Western heads.
How much longer can this complacent illusion last? In the 1960s there was a common belief among the English middle class that things made in Japan were "Japanese junk". The Sony Walkman and infinitely more reliable televisions than any manufactured in the country that invented the damn things soon ended that complacency.
The main television station in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province, has a spanking new news studio infinitely superior to any the BBC can boast.
Chinese airlines (many of which know a great deal more about service than their western counterparts) fly Airbus and Boeing, but soon, the country will be making its own passenger aircraft.
What reason is there to assume that banking or any of the creative industries are beyond their ability?
Predicting the future is a job for clairvoyants, not journalists. But I cannot see any easy way for the current imbalance of trade to be equalised. Rather the reverse.
Untouchable elite
There is, though, one worry the so-called communists in the Chinese government might want to trouble themselves with.

The overseas bank accounts of the mega-rich are an open secret. Stories of corruption... are legion
One night, while eating in a smart Beijing restaurant I teased my host by asking whether the other diners were party officials. His instant - and serious - reply caught me out.
"Oh no," he said, "they always eat in the private rooms at places like this."
All the best restaurants have these private rooms, so the rich and powerful do not have their meal spoiled by the offensive sight of their fellow citizens.
Many of these private rooms serve delicacies the Chinese people can only dream of. Come to think of it, they probably do dream of them. I'm talking abalone, sea slug and puffer fish.
I certainly don't know enough about China to assert that this sort of behaviour cannot last. But I do know that it would not be tolerated in western Europe. Revolutions have been sparked by less.
The vast majority of the Chinese people do not yet seem even to have their noses pressed to the window-panes. They are too busy hoping to get rich, or just trying to make ends meet.
But the one-child policy is openly flouted by the rich, who simply pay the fine or arrange for the birth to take place in Hong Kong. If a poor person's child falls ill and the parents cannot afford health insurance, they will not get hospital care.
The overseas bank accounts of the mega-rich are an open secret. Stories of corruption, even of car accidents in which young people run someone over and expect to get away with it because their parents are senior in the party, are legion.
Having said which, everyone we met was charming, friendly and helpful. Not a single young person talked, even in their cups, of revolution
Right now, there are too many people doing too well for such thoughts. But it does not take a clairvoyant to ask how long it can last.
Watch Jeremy Paxman's reports from China on Newsnight at 10.30pm on BBC Two starting Monday 23 January 2012. IS THIS TRUE please don't ban me :undecided:
 
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I'd say just about everything in that article is true, both the good and the bad.
 
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I'd say just about everything in that article is true, both the good and the bad.
China just had a "revolution" of sorts. The corrupt tuanpai got ousted, and the relatively less corrupt princelings are in! China has a very different government now under Xi Jinping than before under Hu Jintao. Once Hu and Wen officially leaves after the 18th CCP Congress in October this year, the difference will be even more marked.
 
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China just had a "revolution" of sorts. The corrupt tuanpai got ousted, and the relatively less corrupt princelings are in! China has a very different government now under Xi Jinping than before under Hu Jintao. Once Hu and Wen officially leaves after the 18th CCP Congress in October this year, the difference will be even more marked.

I doubt that. Corruption is a systemic issue, not a personnel issue. The problem right now is that people don't resent those extremely rich and flaunting people because they believe they can become them. 30 years ago there were basically no such rich folks in China, but now there are many. Most of them are self-made, coming from nothing, which incidentally at least partially explain their nouveau riche behaviour. The rest of the common citizens see their success stories and believe that it could happen to them too, which is why there's no hint of a revolution in China, and also why the Chinese government is so keen on keeping the economic growth going.
 
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I doubt that. Corruption is a systemic issue, not a personnel issue. The problem right now is that people don't resent those extremely rich and flaunting people because they believe they can become them. 30 years ago there were basically no such rich folks in China, but now there are many. Most of them are self-made, coming from nothing, which incidentally at least partially explain their nouveau riche behaviour. The rest of the common citizens see their success stories and believe that it could happen to them too, which is why there's no hint of a revolution in China, and also why the Chinese government is so keen on keeping the economic growth going.
Your China knowledge is out of date by at least 7 years if you believe the bolded.
 
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China reduces holdings of U.S. government bonds

2012-03-03

BEIJING, March 3 (Xinhuanet) -- China has made the first annual reduction in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in a decade. Experts are viewing the move as a sign that the country is accelerating the move away from dollar assets in search of more diversified investment channels.

According to the latest monthly figures from the U.S. Treasury Department, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds dropped for a fifth consecutive month in Dec to 1.15 trillion U.S. dollars.

The number was an update of a figure released in February, after the U.S. department adjusted its method of collecting data on foreign holdings of U.S. government bonds, a move aimed at obtaining more information about the use of proxies buying and holding U.S. securities.

As a result, China's June holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have been amended to 1.31 trillion dollars instead of 1.17 trillion dollars. The figure at the end of 2011 was 51 billion dollars higher than the previous calculation.

According to the revised data, China cut its holdings of U.S. debt by 8.2 billion dollars in 2011 compared with the previous year. It was the first time that the country had reduced its yearly holdings since 2001.

The country remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. treasuries, but analysts suggest that China's 3.2 trillion dollars in foreign-exchange reserves means that the country is beginning to rapidly diversify its portfolio of foreign currencies.

Senior Chinese officials, including the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, have repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification of China's foreign-exchange reserves to minimize the negative impact of fluctuations in the international financial markets.

The latest figure "clearly indicates China's intention not to put all its eggs in one basket", said Lu Feng, director of Peking University's China Macroeconomic Research Center, according to quotes in the Wall Street Journal.

"The Chinese government has reiterated that it will be actively involved in supporting the troubled euro area. With China's holdings of U.S. debt declining, plans for Europe may be already in progress," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Mizuho Securities Co Ltd.

The reduction of dollar assets coupled with the ambitions in the eurozone can be interpreted as an important step by Chinese foreign-exchange regulators to promote the diversification of reserves, Shen said.

China has many reasons to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar, such as low yields and the monetary-easing measures adopted by the U.S. government, which could lead to inflation that could erode the value of those holdings, said Wei Liang, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

The increasing volume of outbound investment may also have indirectly affected the amount of money invested in U.S. debt, Wei said.

"U.S. debt has been a safe haven for capital amid the global economic crisis, but as we see growth come back on track, investors may pull out in favor of other investment channels," he said.

Xinhua

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Morgan Stanley predicts China growth 8.4 pct

China's gross domestic product (GDP) will expand 8.4 percent year on year in 2012, down from 9.2 percent last year, a Morgan Stanley economist forecast Monday.

"China will see a slowdown, but a hard landing is unlikely," Qiao Hong, chief economist for Greater China, Morgan Stanley, said.

The contribution of net exports to GDP will be zero in 2012, which means the growth will be wholly generated by internal demands, Qiao said.

Of the 8.4-percent growth, consumption will account for 4.1 percentage points while investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, which means China still has to steer it economy from over-reliance on investment to consumption, she said.

Meanwhile, Qiao said China's inflation would continue a downward trend in the first half of the year, while she did not give a trend outlook for the latter half.

Regarding the property sector, Qiao said she expected certain easing of the tightening policies at local levels as real estate developers have felt increasing capital pressure.

Global Times

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China, India push for bigger BRICS role

Global Times-Agencies | March 02, 2012

hs189d.jpg


Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held talks with his Indian counterpart S.M. Krishna Thursday in India in a meeting focusing on an upcoming summit of major emerging economies and top issues.

On March 28, New Delhi will hold the fourth summit of the BRICS nations, a grouping acronym refering to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

In a separate meeting Thursday, Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari told Yang that he believes it is important for India and China to step up coordination and jointly uphold the common interests of the two countries and other developing nations.

India's External Affairs Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said the talks between Krishna and Yang also touched on "all issues" in China-India relations, but did not provide further details.

Akbaruddin stressed that India's relations with China were positive and needed to be strengthened and broadened.

As the world's two major emerging economies, China and India share several disputed regions along their border and the two countries fought a brief war in 1962. A total of 15 rounds of special representatives talks have been held to resolve the boundary issue.

Yang's trip to New Delhi came days after Beijing rejected comments by Indian officials that they pledged to guarantee the "safety" of the so-called Arunachal Pradesh region.

"The differences between China and India over bilateral issues are unlikely to influence their cooperation on global issues as the two sides have increasing global common interests," Zhao Gancheng, director of South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, told the Global Times.

He said Beijing and New Delhi coordinated well at the Copenhagen climate summit and a recent airline-emission levies spat with the EU.

The India Today magazine reported Beijing also raised the Tibet issue in the foreign ministers' meeting, while New Delhi has asked for more market access to Indian companies in China.

Krishna said last month that India will tolerate no anti-China activities on Indian territory.

Zhao said it is good that leaders of the two counties are aware that they need to stay committed to peace and stability in border areas and not let the issue hinder cooperation in other fields.

"But, mistrust resulting from bilateral disputes takes a toll on regional cooperation. China and India need to step up communication and cooperation in dealing with issues across East Asia and South Asia," Zhao noted.

"To do so, both sides should avoid acts that are likely to lead to misconceptions. For example it is improper for India to get involved in the South China Sea issue," he said.

Beijing in December warned against any "outside forces" and "foreign companies" in the South China Sea dispute after the Indian state oil company announced its joint oil exploration plans with Vietnam in the area.

Global Times
 
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Chinese Premier Wen calls co-ordination between military and economic development

2012-02-28 (China Military News cited from bbc.co.uk) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has called for more co-ordination between military and economic development, national Chinese newspapers report on Tuesday.

Mr Wen urged more support for military development as well as better integration with the economy, technology and education, says the Xinhua News Agency report carried by the People's Daily and the others.

The premier also urged improvements to veterans' policies such as civil service jobs and vocational training.

Mr Wen made the remarks at a ceremony marking towns and cities with the best performance in implementing the "double support" policy - referring to unity between the army and residents, with President Hu Jintao also present.

Under the policy, China asks the military and local authorities to work together, raising the army's combat capacity and local productivity at the same time.

China Daily leads with the meeting between Vice-Premier Li Keqiang and visiting World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

Mr Zoellick was hosting the release of a World Bank report saying China needed to embrace fundamental free-market reform if its economy was to continue to grow at its current pace.

The Global Times' bilingual editorial of the day focuses on this report, which it says "seems abrupt" for the bank to present the concept of a "high-income society" to the Chinese public.

"China should not take the concept of 'high-income society' and replace China's previous goal," says the editorial, referring to China's long-term goal of becoming a "well-off society".

With Mr Zoellick due to step down in a few months' time, People's Daily spells out China's stance on how the next World Bank chief should be picked in a commentary.

The article opposes the "primogeniture" practised by the US and developed countries in Europe over the leadership of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. It also appeals for developing countries "to come to a consensus and push [reforms] together".

Shanghai Morning Post and many others reports on the launch of a series of activities "to learn the Spirit of Lei Feng", the Good Samaritan, by the Publicity Department of the Communist Party.

Also featuring in the Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Morning Post is the municipality's decision to raise its minimum wage by 13% to 1,450 yuan ($230; £145) per month from April.

This will keep Shanghai's minimum wage the highest in China, reports say.

China Military News
 
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Very astute observations which most China bears ignore as a result of pervasive free-market thinking.

Why China's Economy Will Grow Strongly in 2012

*** Why China's Economy Will Grow Strongly in 2012 ***

By JOHN ROSS

THE start of 2012 is a suitable moment to look at China's economic prospects for the New Year. The overall outlook is clear – China's economy will continue to grow strongly, remaining the world's fastest growing major economy and outperforming Western pessimists' predictions. This is the same prediction I have made for the last two years and results have shown me to be correct. Given accurate or inaccurate predictions depend on different fundamental analyses rather than the personal characteristics of those making them, what is it that leads to repeated projections of China's economy that are consistently correct or incorrect?

The central issue is simple but difficult for many non-Chinese analysts to admit, despite constant confirmation by reality and repeated debunked predictions of a serious slowdown. The fact is that statements by Chinese analysts that China has a stronger economic structure than the U.S. and Europe, and that this produces a stronger economic performance, are not a boast but actually tell the truth. As many Western analysts do not understand the strength of China's economic structure, they systematically underestimate China's economic growth potential every year. A difficulty for non-Chinese analysts is that sometimes explanations of this economic strength are posed solely in terms of specifically "Chinese characteristics," so it is worth spelling out why China has a stronger economic structure than the U.S. and Europe more generally, along with how this relates to economic issues that will be faced in 2012.

China defines its system as a "socialist market economy." This means that it differs fundamentally from the economy that existed prior to its 1978 economic reforms, which was modeled on that of the former USSR, in that now the main guiding force of the economy is market forces rather than administration. China has a large and vibrant private sector that is growing more rapidly than that in any other country worldwide. However, where China essentially differs from the U.S. and Europe is that it has a sufficiently large state sector, and a nationalized core banking system, which allow it to directly set the economy's overall investment level. The state sector is too small in the U.S. or Europe to do so. This combination of market system and state sector is what gives China greater economic strength than the U.S. or Europe.

To illustrate this, take a key contemporary economic problem – the current situation in the U.S. The Financial Times on December 15 accurately described the situation of the U.S. economy. It noted that the share of wages in U.S. GDP had fallen to its lowest level since records began, and concluded: "The decline in the labor share, along with a shift of labor income towards higher earners, may be an important part of why the U.S. economic recovery is so sluggish. Workers on lower wages consume much of their income, while higher wage earners and those with capital income are more likely to save. That will not affect total demand if savers lend to those who want to consume or invest in buildings and start-ups – but investment has been slow to recover in the wake of the recession."

In short, the U.S. economy is growing slowly not because there is a shortage of funds for investment (on the contrary – profits are at a record high), but because investment is very low. Indeed, the entire decline in U.S. GDP in the current "Great Recession" is accounted for by the fall in investment. The problem is that in the U.S. there is no mechanism that ensures that the huge funds available for investment are actually invested.

In China no such problem exists. If funds are not directly invested by companies, then the state owned banking system and state sector can invest them. Therefore no shortfall of demand occurs of the type analyzed by the Financial Times in the U.S. During the entire international financial crisis, China, unlike the U.S., suffered no decline in investment – on the contrary investment increased. The problem of accumulation of unused funds like that currently seen in the U.S., which in Keynesian terms is a shortage of effective demand, does not arise in China. If, on the other hand, China's economy is booming, and companies are utilizing all funds for investment, the state steps back and reduces its own investment in order to avoid overheating. That is why China's macroeconomic policy is stronger than that in the U.S. – the extremes of either shortage of or excessive demand that plague the American and European economies are smoothed in China.

China still faces macroeconomic problems. No policymaker can judge absolutely accurately how strongly the world economy will grow, all of the inflationary or deflationary pressures that will be present, exactly how China's own economy will respond to a given measure, and so on. Issues like overheating, undershooting, inflation, and deflation can therefore always appear, but in China these fluctuations are smaller than those that occur in the U.S. or Europe.

The period since the onset of the international financial crisis showed the strength of China's economic structure clearly. Faced with the international financial crisis in 2008, China was able to launch a massive stimulus package, which meant its economy did not suffer a recession at all. The recovery of the world economy in 2010-2011 combined with the aftermath of the stimulus package to create some economic overheating and 2011 was therefore mainly spent damping inflation. In 2012, with negative trends dominating the world economy, China will loosen its economic policy.

The overall result is evident. In the four years leading up to the latest economic data, for the third quarter of 2011, the U.S. GDP grew by 0.5 percent, the EU shrank by 0.3 percent, and China grew by 42.2 percent. China's economy therefore suffered some fluctuations on its strong growth path, whereas the U.S. and Europe suffered overall economic stagnation. The stronger character of China's economic system was shown by these facts. Those predicting crisis for China on the same scale as the U.S. and Europe made the wrong predictions because they failed to analyze that strength.

It is this superior strength of China's economic structure that also makes it possible to predict for 2012 that China's economy will continue to grow strongly, remaining the fastest growing major economy in the world, and outperforming Western pessimists' predictions -- as in previous years the facts of 2012 will confirm that analysis. Not until they understand the greater structural strength of China's economy will current critics be able to make persistently accurate predictions such as this.
 
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I doubt that. Corruption is a systemic issue, not a personnel issue. The problem right now is that people don't resent those extremely rich and flaunting people because they believe they can become them. 30 years ago there were basically no such rich folks in China, but now there are many. Most of them are self-made, coming from nothing, which incidentally at least partially explain their nouveau riche behaviour. The rest of the common citizens see their success stories and believe that it could happen to them too, which is why there's no hint of a revolution in China, and also why the Chinese government is so keen on keeping the economic growth going.
I think you're grossly oversimplifying this because as far as I know, the typical Chinese mainlander simply wants a better life. Your belief that they think they too can become a rags to riches millionaire/billionaire is a very small minority, just as it is a very small minority in all countries in the world. Concerning the nouveau riche, it's mostly the ones who flagrantly flaunt their wealth, especially those with connections who draw the most hatred. This is common sense, you don't need to be a sociologist or China expert to know this. The social patterns in China are no different then any other country, except for the almost universal expectation of a better more prosperous future.
 
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GDP in 2011 (nominal, at market exchange rates):
1- USA: $15,094 bn
2- China: $7,286 bn
3- Japan: $5,898 bn
4- Germany: $3,580 bn
5- France: $2,779 bn
6- Brazil: $2,480 bn
7- UK: $2,421 bn
8- Italy: $2,201 bn
9- Russia: $1,849 bn
10- Canada: $1,738 bn
11- Spain: $1,495 bn

For comparison, GDP in 2010:
1- USA: $14,527 bn
2- China: $5,878 bn
3- Japan: $5,459 bn
4- Germany: $3,286 bn
5- France: $2,563 bn
6- UK: $2,250 bn
7- Brazil: $2,090 bn
8- Italy: $2,055 bn
9- Canada: $1,577 bn
10- Russia: $1,480 bn
11- Spain: $1,410 bn
 
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Götterdämmerung;2669649 said:
GDP in 2011 (nominal, at market exchange rates):
1- USA: $15,094 bn
2- China: $7,286 bn
3- Japan: $5,898 bn
4- Germany: $3,580 bn
5- France: $2,779 bn
6- Brazil: $2,480 bn
7- UK: $2,421 bn
8- Italy: $2,201 bn
9- Russia: $1,849 bn
10- Canada: $1,738 bn
11- Spain: $1,495 bn

For comparison, GDP in 2010:
1- USA: $14,527 bn
2- China: $5,878 bn
3- Japan: $5,459 bn
4- Germany: $3,286 bn
5- France: $2,563 bn
6- UK: $2,250 bn
7- Brazil: $2,090 bn
8- Italy: $2,055 bn
9- Canada: $1,577 bn
10- Russia: $1,480 bn
11- Spain: $1,410 bn

Where is India in the list ??

Or you remove it intentionally ???
 
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Where is India in the list ??

Or you remove it intentionally ???

As the official numbers of India are not out yet I don't know where to put India, but I would be happy to include India if you could provide the latest numbers from March 2012, that's when most countries publicise their newest GDP numbers.
 
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Götterdämmerung;2669721 said:
As the official numbers of India are not out yet I don't know where to put India, but I would be happy to include India if you could provide the latest numbers from March 2012, that's when most countries publicise their newest GDP numbers.
They are deliberately withholding their numbers because it will show that their GDP in US dollar terms has gone down since the rupee collapsed in the past half year.
 
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