China could use military force to claim Taiwan's supply of microchips, warn experts

[VCheng]

Until the day Catalan achieved independent from Spain. I dont need crocodile tears or fake democracy like EU or US preaching China what to do is best.

I agree with the Chinese determining whatever it is they want - for themselves.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

It is only partially true.
The DUV and EUV lithography machines used by TSMC are not from USA but Nederland.
Japan do have its own proprietary DUV lithography machine e.g. Nikon, Canon, etc
in fact Japanese firm like ToK, Shin-Etsu, controlled 90% of all photoresist for EUV. the rest comes from USA Monsanto.
These Japan lithography machine lacks in demand rather than technology.
With its breakthrough in 2020 China is now the new comer and competitor for Japan. That is proving worrisome for Japan photoresist manufacturers.

USA dominated in EDA tools software but these are not hardwares as falsely printed.
This software is the tools USA is talking about.
Apart from EUV lithography, today China can practically replaced all these equipment with its homegrown IPR equipment. China has successfully developed its own proprietary EDA tools softwares. When TSMC started using China own EDA Tools software, USA will lost total control. Hence it is moving towards politics.

China own proprietary LPP lithography will soon be able to substitute EUV by ASML. It needs more time but China may leapfrogged this 2nd generation process altogether.

That is why the CEO of ASML is so worried. Once China own equipment comes on line, the day of ASML core business may be over.
Moore's Law has reached its limit.

The tool from Netherlands i just a namesake. Netherlands has no R&D base, no defence funds and has done nothing to develop semiconductor. How can Netherlands suddenly get the most advanced technology? Just like USA is producing things in Taiwan, USA is also producing things with its IPR in Netherlands. But at the end of the day, the core components are from USA and only USA knows how to replicate it.

China also has lithography tools. Even India, Russia also have Lithography tools. It is just that these are older version. China has 22nm tool, India has 65nm tool and Russia ahs 32/45nm tool. USA has 7nm tool and that is 3 generation ahead of 22nm tool with China. So, even though China has developed its own technology, it is still lagging behind by about 6-7 years at least. It takes about 6-7 years minimum to leap from 22nm to 7nm. It is not possible to leapfrog generations as there is an incremental increase.

 

[Viet]

To build the fabs Tsmc buys machinery and technology from all the world from Japan to Germany to Netherlands and America. Even if the PLA succeeds with invasion they will take just a worthless hull.
Or Xi Jingping assumes the West will continue to support a chinese Tsmc?

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Hello 52292? China claims it is part of China, but the good people of Taiwan may not agree, kinda like the good people of Kashmir have a disagreement over what India claims, innit?

Back on topic, if china thinks it can take Taiwan by force, let it try and see what happens. Maybe USA will just walk away. May be it won't.

What a lousy argument. Both Pakistan and American recognize one China, to which Taiwan is an integral part. You are expressing an opinion which has no legal legs to stand on.

 

[VCheng]

American recognize one China, to which Taiwan is an integral part.

Incorrect. USA does not recognize PRC claims of sovereignty over Taiwan:

"The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher told a Senate hearing questioner, “[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.” In the August 17, 1982, U.S.-China Communique, the United States went one step further, stating that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”"

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Incorrect. USA does not recognize PRC claims of sovereignty over Taiwan:

"The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher told a Senate hearing questioner, “[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.” In the August 17, 1982, U.S.-China Communique, the United States went one step further, stating that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”"

"The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher told a Senate hearing questioner, “[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.” In the August 17, 1982, U.S.-China Communique, the United States went one step further, stating that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”"

 

[VCheng]

"The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher told a Senate hearing questioner, “[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.” In the August 17, 1982, U.S.-China Communique, the United States went one step further, stating that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”"

Yes, funny how not to say everything out loud sometimes works better in international geopolitics. Policies change all the time to serve national interests, right? Acknowledging Chinese claims is not exactly accepting them.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Yes, funny how not to say everything out loud sometimes works better in international geopolitics. Policies change all the time to serve national interests, right? Acknowledging Chinese claims is not exactly accepting them.

With this stance you can kiss goodbye to any American intervention over Chinese attempts to reintegrate Taiwan into mainland. Military power works alongside diplomatic one and with this feeble stance, good luck!

 

[VCheng]

With this stance you can kiss goodbye to any American intervention over Chinese attempts to reintegrate Taiwan into mainland. Military power works alongside diplomatic one and with this feeble stance, good luck!

Thank you for the wishes of good luck. Let's see what happens over this issue in the coming months and years.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

The tool from Netherlands i just a namesake. Netherlands has no R&D base, no defence funds and has done nothing to develop semiconductor. How can Netherlands suddenly get the most advanced technology? Just like USA is producing things in Taiwan, USA is also producing things with its IPR in Netherlands. But at the end of the day, the core components are from USA and only USA knows how to replicate it.

China also has lithography tools. Even India, Russia also have Lithography tools. It is just that these are older version. China has 22nm tool, India has 65nm tool and Russia ahs 32/45nm tool. USA has 7nm tool and that is 3 generation ahead of 22nm tool with China. So, even though China has developed its own technology, it is still lagging behind by about 6-7 years at least. It takes about 6-7 years minimum to leap from 22nm to 7nm. It is not possible to leapfrog generations as there is an incremental increase.

"The tool from Netherlands i just a namesake."???

You don't have seem to know how ASML got started and what you are talking about?
Today DUV continued to be exported to China without the need of any licence from Nederland?
It is ASML biggest market.
Do you know why they can exports these DUV lithography to China despite US unilateral technology ban.
Where is US technology apart once again on the use of their EDA tool software?
What 7nm lithography machine has USA got?
Why did Intel outsource its high end chips to TSMC then if it is not stuck at 10nm.

Meanwhile SMIC has already trial run and is starting to mass produce its 7nm +N1 nodes.
China Unisoc has unveiled its 6nm chips.
Forget about Russia or India.

"It is not possible to leapfrog generations as there is an incremental increase."???


It is not possible. Really. That is because you are still stuck with the 2nd generation process in your argument.
FYI It is already happening.

And another thing, you do not seem to understand or know what 3rd generation process is all about?

Anyway it useless to argue about all this but the ramification of US action on China will be showing up soon unfortunately with more and more breakthrough news coming from China.

I could see that China is not unhappy but in fact elated by these silly policy taken by Biden advised by Chairman Ajit Pai of FCC.
It is backfiring in them.

OK I will stop here. It is no point ding donging.

Is one is really interested, just hanged around for another 1~1.5 year more and you will be reading some really astonishing news out of China.

This are exciting time for me as there are new exciting development coming out of China almost every month.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

"The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher told a Senate hearing questioner, “[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.” In the August 17, 1982, U.S.-China Communique, the United States went one step further, stating that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”"

It is called blinkmanship and Biden is walking a thin rope endorsing a landmine and trap Trump laid for him.

The Taiwan card is a dangerous card for USA as China may decide to end it all with a forceful military invention. All Tsai has to do is to declare "Independence" if she dare.

IMO she may not dare to as she may run the risk of be the first Taiwan President to be assassinated (Taiwan is not called Triadwan for nothing) or a possible Coup D'etat by the Military to stop het recklessness.
But one thing is for sure, we will see patrol over Taiwan Province by PLA as regular feature. What can Taiwan do?

FYI i just read this.
MIke Pompeo initially wanted to send US UN Ambassador to Taiwan in the last days of Trump administration but was forced to abandon it after receiving threat that PLAAF will shoot down the plane carrying her if USA dare to cross the RED LINE.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Thank you for the wishes of good luck. Let's see what happens over this issue in the coming months and years.

Trust me, you will need it.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

"The tool from Netherlands i just a namesake."???

You don't have seem to know how ASML got started and what you are talking about?
Today DUV continued to be exported to China without the need of any licence from Nederland?
It is ASML biggest market.
Do you know why they can exports these DUV lithography to China despite US unilateral technology ban.
Where is US technology apart once again on the use of their EDA tool software?
What 7nm lithography machine has USA got?
Why did Intel outsource its high end chips to TSMC then if it is not stuck at 10nm.

Meanwhile SMIC has already trial run and is starting to mass produce its 7nm +N1 nodes.
China Unisoc has unveiled its 6nm chips.
Forget about Russia or India.

"It is not possible to leapfrog generations as there is an incremental increase."???


It is not possible. Really. That is because you are still stuck with the 2nd generation process in your argument.
FYI It is already happening.

And another thing, you do not seem to understand or know what 3rd generation process is all about?

Anyway it useless to argue about all this but the ramification of US action on China will be showing up soon unfortunately with more and more breakthrough news coming from China.

I could see that China is not unhappy but in fact elated by these silly policy taken by Biden advised by Chairman Ajit Pai of FCC.
It is backfiring in them.

OK I will stop here. It is no point ding donging.

Is one is really interested, just hanged around for another 1~1.5 year more and you will be reading some really astonishing news out of China.

This are exciting time for me as there are new exciting development coming out of China almost every month.

You have half knowledge. All the technology of TSMC, ASML, Samsung etc are from USA. USA is the only country which has advanced research on semiconductor. ASML can't magically make lithography machines without any long term R&D. It was USA who started the R&D in 1960s on silicon chips and hence it has an advantage over others in that. Netherlands did not start any R&D on chips. Taiwan, Korea etc were backwards till 1990. How can they suddenly get latest lithography? Are they superhumans?

 

[VCheng]

Trust me, you will need it.

Of course. Luck only favors those who do not include it in their plans.

 

[swnjo]

Makes no sense. Taiwan is where only fabs are located. In case of invasion US-Japan-Korea-Europe will simply move the base to somewer else(most likely US). China will enjoy some advantage for a decade at most than it will come back to dependence on west again for chip making. China is so behind, it will probably lay low for at least 20-30 more years till it it gain some know-how of advanced chip manufacturing.

You have half knowledge. All the technology of TSMC, ASML, Samsung etc are from USA. USA is the only country which has advanced research on semiconductor. ASML can't magically make lithography machines without any long term R&D. It was USA who started the R&D in 1960s on silicon chips and hence it has an advantage over others in that. Netherlands did not start any R&D on chips. Taiwan, Korea etc were backwards till 1990. How can they suddenly get latest lithography? Are they superhumans?

Right. Nobody talks about lithography machines and the entire ecosystem of advanced chip manufacturing. Everybody stops at Taiwan and their fabs and no-ones digs dipper than that