China collapse? China will be more powerful than ever

[Han Patriot]

@kankan326 what are you referring to to conclude that 'west' is spreading propaganda that China is collapsing? I am in the west and read WSJ and several other sources for news. While there are specific reports (such as evergrande bankruptcy, deflationary economic signals of China, global attempts at diversifying supply chain etc etc haven't seen any intense efforts to show China is collapsing. Hence I am curious what you are reacting to

Seriously? Which planet were you living in?

 

[ProudThamizhan]

Seriously? Which planet were you living in?
View attachment 949226

yes, kankan answered my question on this and such stories do not make sense.

entire Chinese economy collapse would be a rare blackswan. But significant parts of it have already collapsed and being held together by direct CCP action.

Publishing that and assessing global impact is not propoganda

 

[kankan326]

yes, kankan answered my question on this and such stories do not make sense.

entire Chinese economy collapse would be a rare blackswan. But significant parts of it have already collapsed and being held together by direct CCP action.

Publishing that and assessing global impact is not propoganda

Tell you one fact: In this half year, loan for houses did decline in China. But loan for high tech industries increased by 41%.

 

[karmaa]

West world is spreading China collapse propaganda AGAIN. Will this time China collapse be real? Of course not. Nowadays the world is in recession. Among all big economies, only China and India have decent growth data. US claims it's economy is good but in reality electricity comsumption declined. As world factory, of course China's data can not be sparkling as before when the whole world is in recession. Making fuss of these bad data is ridiculous.

The reasons west predicted China collapse are: 1, Youth unemployment(Do you seriously believe 16-23 years old people employment rate is something meaningful?) ; 2, Consumption drop(Normal phenomenon when we are in recession time); 3, Birth rate drop(Inevitably happens when a country enters high income society); 4, Real easte crisis. This is the only problem that matters. I think Chinese government deliberately let that happen because the bubble and financial risk are too big. Making it cold down is good for future development.

Above all, the most important fact, which makes me very confident to China's economy, is China's manufacturing is not weakened. On the contary, it is getting stronger than ever. Ship building, high speed train, EV, 5G, AI used in industries, drones, batteries, display screens, memory chips, new energies, 4th generation nuclear power development, military equipment, next generation rockets, electricity transportation tech... Chinese products are more competitive. Some people said China is doomed because the west world is moving their factories and orders to India, Vietnam, Mexico. Fact is it won't hurt China much if shoes, textiles, toys, assembly factories leave China. Many young people in China would rather stay home than enter factories.

I give you an example to show how fast China's industry grew. In 2018, after Trump started trade war to China and sanctioned Huawei, China's Science Daily listed 35 very crucial products that China relies on import from west. See below chart.

View attachment 948972

Five years later, 22 products(green items) among the 35 can be completely replaced by domestic ones. 7 products(orange items) have domestic suppliers but quality is not good as imported ones. 6 products still can not be produced by domestic companies.
View attachment 948973

Based on the newest information, item 1(lithography machine) and item 23(transmission electron microscope) will turn green or orange soon.

Can you imagine how powerful China's economy will be if all the 35 items beome green? Iphone, Samsung, Toyota, will be defeated by Chinese brands in international market. More countries will choose Yuan as trade currency over dollar. Chinese people will enjoy high level living standard and consumption will soar.

China will collapse once it starts war with India .

 

[Han Patriot]

yes, kankan answered my question on this and such stories do not make sense.

entire Chinese economy collapse would be a rare blackswan. But significant parts of it have already collapsed and being held together by direct CCP action.

Publishing that and assessing global impact is not propoganda

Significant? Can you tell me which sector collapsed? Some real estate company defaulting is equals to the property market collapsing? I can't wait for the price collapse man. I will snap some

 

[Viet]

West world is spreading China collapse propaganda AGAIN. Will this time China collapse be real? Of course not. Nowadays the world is in recession. Among all big economies, only China and India have decent growth data. US claims it's economy is good but in reality electricity comsumption declined. As world factory, of course China's data can not be sparkling as before when the whole world is in recession. Making fuss of these bad data is ridiculous.

The reasons west predicted China collapse are: 1, Youth unemployment(Do you seriously believe 16-23 years old people employment rate is something meaningful?) ; 2, Consumption drop(Normal phenomenon when we are in recession time); 3, Birth rate drop(Inevitably happens when a country enters high income society); 4, Real easte crisis. This is the only problem that matters. I think Chinese government deliberately let that happen because the bubble and financial risk are too big. Making it cold down is good for future development.

Above all, the most important fact, which makes me very confident to China's economy, is China's manufacturing is not weakened. On the contary, it is getting stronger than ever. Ship building, high speed train, EV, 5G, AI used in industries, drones, batteries, display screens, memory chips, new energies, 4th generation nuclear power development, military equipment, next generation rockets, electricity transportation tech... Chinese products are more competitive. Some people said China is doomed because the west world is moving their factories and orders to India, Vietnam, Mexico. Fact is it won't hurt China much if shoes, textiles, toys, assembly factories leave China. Many young people in China would rather stay home than enter factories.

I give you an example to show how fast China's industry grew. In 2018, after Trump started trade war to China and sanctioned Huawei, China's Science Daily listed 35 very crucial products that China relies on import from west. See below chart.

View attachment 948972

Five years later, 22 products(green items) among the 35 can be completely replaced by domestic ones. 7 products(orange items) have domestic suppliers but quality is not good as imported ones. 6 products still can not be produced by domestic companies.
View attachment 948973

Based on the newest information, item 1(lithography machine) and item 23(transmission electron microscope) will turn green or orange soon.

Can you imagine how powerful China's economy will be if all the 35 items beome green? Iphone, Samsung, Toyota, will be defeated by Chinese brands in international market. More countries will choose Yuan as trade currency over dollar. Chinese people will enjoy high level living standard and consumption will soar.

The best time of China is over you haven’t just realized it. Two major factors: coronavirus and geopolitics. The tension between the West and China will get more terrible in the future. Adding to the tension is China’s nationalist drive and alignment with Russia.
Look at the prediction of trades between Germany and China and you will sense it: down 95 percent.

 

[etylo]

Indians and Vietnamese are the two people in the developing world most want and believe China will or is collapsing, lol, keep your delusional dreams alive.

 

[OIO]

The best time of China is over you haven’t just realized it. Two major factors: coronavirus and geopolitics. The tension between the West and China will get more terrible in the future. Adding to the tension is China’s nationalist drive and alignment with Russia.
Look at the prediction of trades between Germany and China and you will sense it: down 95 percent.

the world is collapsing, but China is relatively better.

 

[Viet]

the world is collapsing, but China is relatively better.

The world is overcrowded that’s why wars are everywhere. Whoever survives war, global warming, food shortage wins.

 

[OIO]

The world is overcrowded that’s why wars are everywhere. Whoever survives war, global warming, food shortage wins.

Do you think Germany has any advantages?

 

[Viet]

Do you think Germany has any advantages?

No
Too many fanatics
the dumbest idea ever to shut down nuclear power plants in middle of power crisis
Then the neofascists party Afd is on the rise.
I will move to Swiss.

 

[kankan326]

The best time of China is over you haven’t just realized it. Two major factors: coronavirus and geopolitics. The tension between the West and China will get more terrible in the future. Adding to the tension is China’s nationalist drive and alignment with Russia.
Look at the prediction of trades between Germany and China and you will sense it: down 95 percent.

If so all China needs to do is beating German goods in world market.

 

[Viet]

If so all China needs to do is beating German goods in world market.

possible especially Chinese EVs. That’s how I see it.
However as I said geopolitics prevail over commerce it’s best to manufacture those EVs in Vietnam. We are in free trade zero tariffs with EU.

 

[OIO]

No
Too many fanatics
the dumbest idea ever to shut down nuclear power plants in middle of power crisis
Then the neofascists party Afd is on the rise.
I will move to Swiss.

What is wrong with the AfD?

 

[FuturePAF]

China is still set up to keep climbing the technological value added chain (for example, if their airliner is completely independent of international components and competitive with Boeing and Airbus, they could sell well over thousands to partners like Iran and Russia, as well as domestic airlines). As long as that is still true, at a cost under their competition, it won’t collapse. It can’t collapse because much of the global consumer market depends on products at a certain price.

For example, China is outpacing traditional leading companies from Europe and the even some from the U.S. and expanding into their traditional markets. (Especially when it has access to cheaper commodities such as Russian oil as inputs)

Now, western and allied producers are going to gain a some market share as government carve out parts of the market for their own companies regardless of the costs, which is why China will have to expand into developing markets (with elites or regimes that are at risk of or currently under US sanctions) and help them be able to afford Chinese products, with support to industrialize and generate more revenue to spend. Many of these countries could have the capacity to absorb more Chinese exports if their economies were more productive, such as Iran.

China could also acquire large amounts of precious metals from these developing countries to provide another form of support for the value of the yuan, and increase its share of use in global trade. Many African countries have been trading resources for products, China would trade resources especially precious metals (that can be traded like a liquid internationally accepted currency) for industrialization and joint ventures, where African companies make some parts and Chinese companies still keep making other parts of a profit like a car.

China needs a pathway to maintain its status as the fastest growing major economy (or a close second to India if they start to get their act together) in the world to keep on attracting FDI and more tech, despite western restrictions. The Soviets, at their peak had an economy only 40% of the UD economy. China is currently at 70-75%. They have to keep getting closer to parity if it hopes to also achieve the politics benefits of parity; a major reserve currency to support domestic social welfare and jobs programs, and the ability to impose sanctions and elude other’s sanctions (for themselves and their partners).