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China becomes an urban nation at breakneck speed
Tania Branigan in Guiyang
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 2 October 2011 16.00 BST
Tania Branigan in Guiyang
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 2 October 2011 16.00 BST
This is the year China finally became an urban nation. In April the census revealed that 49.7% of its 1.34bn population was living in cities, compared with around a fifth as economic reforms got off the ground in 1982. By now, China's urbanites outnumber their country cousins. "The process they have been going through over three decades took four or five decades in Japan and [South] Korea and 100 years in the west,"says Edward Leman, whose Chreon consultancy has advised numerous Chinese cities on development.
It is not only the extraordinary speed that is "unprecedented and unparalleled", says Prof Paul James of the Global Cities Institute at RMIT University in Melbourne. "It represents the most managed process of urbanisation in human history. The state is involved in every way. It manages the building of new cities. It regulates the housing of internally displaced people. It responds actively and sometimes oppressively to new waves of squatters."
The new five-year plan pushes urbanisation even further, as the government seeks to raise living standards and promote development in the poorer central and western regions. A hard landing for the economy could slow this process local government debt is a particular worry but will not stop it.
By 2025, one study suggests, 350 million more people will have moved to cities; more than the population of the US. Five years later the urban population will top 1 billion. There will be 221 cities with more than 1 million inhabitants; Europe currently has 35. The number of new skyscrapers could equate to 10 New York cities. The impact will be felt worldwide: in prices for commodities such as steel and copper, and in greenhouse gas emissions.
Li Keqiang the vice-premier expected to become prime minister in 2012 has argued that urbanisation should be the "strategic focus" of expanding domestic demand. China needs to restructure its economy, moving away from exports and investment towards domestic consumption. In the short-term urbanisation creates demand for infrastructure and property; in the longer run, urbanites consume vastly more than rural dwellers.
Han Jun, deputy director with the state council's development research centre a top government thinktank has predicted that the process will boost domestic demand by 30trn yuan (£3trn) by 2030.