Chabahar port(iran) may win over gwadar

[bhangra12345]

Registan.net » Central Asia’s Seaport: Gwadar or Chabahar?

Central Asia’s Seaport: Gwadar or Chabahar?

Both Iran and Pakistan have developed strategies to create strong economic and transport ties with Central Asia and beyond. Anchoring these strategies are two new seaports: Gwadar in Pakistan and Chabahar in Iran. Spreading out from these ports are existing or planned transportation infrastructure that leads into their respective country’s economic center and importantly for Central Asia, northwards. Both ports are well towards becoming fully operable and are offering generous incentives for companies and governments to do business in their ports. However, serious political, economic and logistical problems remain. For Central Asia one of these two ports, or indeed both, will likely become important links to world markets.

The problems with Karachi and Bandar Abbas

Karachi is already overburdened with severe congestion from commercial, fishing and military shipping. And from a strategic vantage point it is quite problematic. The Indian Navy targeted the port in 1971 and any blockade in the future would devastate Pakistan since that country has an overreliance on the port of Karachi. The port of Qasim, built in the 1970s was to relive some of that burden and the port of Gwadar is expected to further reduce the reliance on Karachi.

Bandar Abbas is of enormous strategic significance to Iran as it is located on the Strait of Hormuz leading into the Persian Gulf. But that is also a problem for Iran. The area is already burdened with high traffic and of course, the U.S. Navy. Iran wishes to have another port that is more conducive to trade and further growth.

Gwadar

Gwadar, being much further away from India than Karachi, makes obvious strategic sense. But it is its commercial potential that will provide the most benefits. Gwadar is not some long-term project. Its first phase, with 75% of the costs covered by the Chinese government, is already completed. The existing docks, built by the Chinese Harbor Engineering Company, are now being operated by Port of Singapore. Port of Singapore won the contract over Dubai Ports World, the company that was forced out of America by opportunistic xenophobes in both political parties there. Phase two will be completed by 2010, adding even more capacity. Ziad Haider, a researcher at the South Asia Program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, noted that Pakistan can make the project succeed if it maintains the financial and political support of China for the project and if it makes some concessions to the Baluchis near Gwadar, who have already carried out deadly attacks on Chinese engineers.

The problem with Gwadar, wrote Ammad Hassan in his thesis for the US Naval Postgraduate School, is that while the port has been built, “the supporting infrastructure of railroad link, industrial capacity, and civic structures at Gwadar is almost non-existent.” And of course, all analysts mention Pakistan’s extremely problematic relations with the ethnic Baluch in the area who, in addition to having been in a low-grade insurgency for some time, are not at all supportive of the port. And to understate another issue, southern Afghanistan is not quite ready to be a reliable transport corridor for Pakistan to access Central Asia, despite the Afghan government’s voiced support for the project. Nevertheless, the idea of further integrating Central Asian and Russian resources southward with the Asian and Middle Eastern market has others optimistic about the long-term prospects. The Asian Development Bank is somewhat cautious though, noting that initially the port will be significant only to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

Chabahar

Gwadar’s competition for trade and transport will come from Chabahar, the new Indian-financed port in Iran. A port outside of the Persian Gulf makes sense from a strategic and logistical viewpoint for Iran. The port of Chabahar was part of a plan to develop transportation infrastructure in Iran’s east for many years. Initially put in hold in 1984 it was revived in 2002 with Indian help. And the financing and engineering assistance from India is not limited to the port. India, wishing to bypass Pakistan, is also cooperating on a highway system that leads from the port into Afghanistan as well as a planned railroad to Afghanistan. Iranian officials state that they wish to have Bandar Abbas remain as the port for Russian and European trade and have Chabahar become the port for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Iran already has good relations with everybody along the route leading north (including the local “warlords”) into Tajikistan. And significantly, it is in Tajikistan where Iran has already been financing several transport projects including the Anzob tunnel. And luckily for the Iranians, the U.S. constructed a bridge over the Amu Darya that fits in nicely with the Chabahar to Khojent route.

Prospects for economic integration of Central Asia with the South

For energy and mineral resources to be sent south from Central Asia a much more expensive transport infrastructure will be required than what is being built at the moment. Another limitation is the lack of a business friendly environment in most Central Asian states. And consumer goods are already entering Central Asia from Russia and China. What more is there a demand for? Furthermore, many Central Asian leaders are obsessed over local issues and haven’t been overly enthusiastic about regional integration (with Uzbekistan being the worst offender).

What is a long-term prospect is Central Asia being a transport route from the ports to Xinjiang, Russia and Kazakhstan, all of them important markets. The routes to Gwadar and Chabahar cut off thousands of kilometers for certain trade routes.

Strategic considerations

Any transportation or military problems in the Straits of Malacca, the Straits of Hormuz, the Suez or anywhere along Asia’s southern coastline will further boost the importance of Central Asia as a transport and trade corridor. Beyond Pakistan and Iran, both China and India are seeking closer relations with Afghanistan and Central Asia. The planned transport and trade routes will have the obvious effect of building solid ties. Iran’s considerations are boosting trade, having secure borders, and avoiding “encirclement” by American proxies (no matter how much a figment of the Iranian government’s imagination). As for Pakistan, the governments there has hoped for better relations with Central Asia. However, their Afghanistan policy always got in the way. Now they hope to move away from that era.

Conclusion

The countries of Central Asia will likely benefit from both Chabahar and Gwadar. Diversifying its import and export routes is a logical economic and political step. Although one should not exaggerate the economic benefits to be reaped. As for the competition between the two ports, it will not be a “winner take all” outcome but rather one port earning the greater share of trade. And the “winner” in this respect will likely be Chabahar, at least in the short term. Iran is more stable than Pakistan, it has better relations with Afghanistan and the Central Asian states, and unlike the Gwadar route its proposed route goes through relatively stable parts of Afghanistan. As long as Iran avoids outright conflict with the United States or any sort of domestic turmoil it should come out of this competition with an advantage.

Primary sources:
Ahmed Rashid
Ammad Hassan (pdf)
Asia Times
Asia Times #2
Gwadar Corner
Jamestown Foundation
Rizwan Zeb
Iran Daily
Daily Times
Ziad Haider (pdf)

 

[Contrarian]

Well, i did not know that India was financing Chabahar. This is news, India did it probably so as not to let Gwadar be the only such port in the region and rake in the riches. Now the winner will be divided by the level of connectivity that the port has with other countries in the region.

Either way, the energy and trade route will be split between these two ports. That is good.

 

[niaz]

Chah Bahar has been in operation for a few years. It has every thing going for it.

1. 4 berths with 11.9 meters draft and 600 meters LOA limitation and capacity to handle 6.5-million ton cargo annually.

2. Connection to Central Asia thru road network as well as thru Iranian railway upto the Caspian and onwards by ships.

3. An international Air port.

The port has not fulfilled its promise of providing main export outlet to Central Asian Republics mainly because US doesnot want it. US will use all her political muscle to stop Iran gaining financial success.

Gwadar on the other hand is a deep water port with draft upto 14 meters. It has three objectives:

1. Provide third major port for Pakistan.

2. Provide facilities to Chines Naval vessels

3. Provide an export outlet to Central Asia and East China.

Main problem with Gwadar remains the road network. Each time it rains, Makran Coastal Highway is shut for a week !

Pakistan has high hopes for Gwadar but some remain pessimistic. Gwadar will no doubt achieve the first two objectives. But the third is likely to remain a dream for quite a few years.

Main stumbling blocks remain law and order problem in Baluchistan and abysmal road network in Afgahnistan. In order for Gwadar to fulfil its potential; in addition to a much better Makran Coastal Highway, we need a four lane A-class highway to Chaman. Onward road connection to Herat and Trurkmenistan. Road connection from Qandhar to Kunduz and onwards to Tajikstan and Uzbekistan.

IMO the above in unlikely in the near future. Thus both Chah Bahar and Gwadar would remain a little short of fulfilling their promise of providing an export hub for the Central Asian Region.

 

[roadrunner]

3. Provide an export outlet to Central Asia and East China.

Pakistan has high hopes for Gwadar but some remain pessimistic. Gwadar will no doubt achieve the first two objectives. But the third is likely to remain a dream for quite a few years.

Main stumbling blocks remain law and order problem in Baluchistan and abysmal road network in Afgahnistan.

Balochistan is not a problem. Any rebels attack once in a blue moon and the insurgency is not popular. It is true the road network in Afghanistan is poor and insecure with the war plus it is the US who control the security. Any connection between Chabahar and Central Asia is going to need a railroad through Afghanistan..Turkmenistan would be the only option..Are they likely to cooperate given that Iran could be taking millions from them by the IPI? Probably not. That would leave no connection with central asia, only a connection to the lower parts of the Caspian, but not to most of it.

But Gwadar would have a direct railroad connection to central asia, without having to transit across Afghanistan. The rairoad network exists right up till Kazakhstan and the upper Caspian. All the oil from the Eastern part of the Caspian can be transported through this route. It would be the cheapest route for all the central asian countries due to the US isolation of Iran.

In order for Gwadar to fulfil its potential; in addition to a much better Makran Coastal Highway, we need a four lane A-class highway to Chaman. Onward road connection to Herat and Trurkmenistan. Road connection from Qandhar to Kunduz and onwards to Tajikstan and Uzbekistan.

Forget Afghanistan routes. The Karakorum through China and into Central Asia is the safest route. Plus the Chinese can help guard the Karakorum where noone is anyway through their satellites.

 

[niaz]

Quote

Forget Afghanistan routes. The Karakorum through China and into Central Asia is the safest route. Plus the Chinese can help guard the Karakorum where noone is anyway through their satellites.
Yesterday 01:51 PM

Unquote

Hon Road Runner,

Kindly look at the map noting the the geographical location of Central Asian Republics ( Turkmenistan, Tajikstan and Uzbekistan). Only route to Kirgizstan is viable thru Karakoram Highway.

In addition to the above, any one who has had the good luck to visit KK highway ( I have gone upto Khunjrab Pass) will realize it would be very difficult for the current KK Highway to to handle China -Pakistan Trade once it reaches its full potential. One would need to increase the road capacity at least three times before it can be envisaged that goods from other Central Asian countries will also use this route.

IMO, to base a brand new export port based on KK Highway is unrealistic. We can dream on, but if Gwadar is to become another Jebel Ali, you need the road net work as I mentioned in my post.

 

[roadrunner]

Hon Road Runner,

Kindly look at the map noting the the geographical location of Central Asian Republics ( Turkmenistan, Tajikstan and Uzbekistan). Only route to Kirgizstan is viable thru Karakoram Highway.

I'm not sure I understand you. The Karakorum Highway passes from Pakistan to Xianjiang and then the road goes onto Bishkek in Kazakhistan through Kyrgyzstan. This is the best route to access central asia, is it not?..Afghanistan is unstable the road links along the Bishkek, Zianjiang, Gwadar route would be the safest and probably the better built considering all the loans each country has taken to build their parts of the road. I'll attach a map if you like, but you can just google it, and see the route yourself from Pakistan to China to Kyrgystan to Kazakhistan.

In addition to the above, any one who has had the good luck to visit KK highway ( I have gone upto Khunjrab Pass) will realize it would be very difficult for the current KK Highway to to handle China -Pakistan Trade once it reaches its full potential. One would need to increase the road capacity at least three times before it can be envisaged that goods from other Central Asian countries will also use this route.

IMO, to base a brand new export port based on KK Highway is unrealistic. We can dream on, but if Gwadar is to become another Jebel Ali, you need the road net work as I mentioned in my post.

So? By the time Gwadar port is running at its full potential, the Karakorum Highway will have been widened three times, as per MoI between PHA and SASAC in 2006. The width of the highway is currently being expanded from 10 metres to 30 metres.

On June 30, 2006, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Pakistan Highway Administration and China’s state-owned Assets Supervision (SASAC) to rebuild and upgrade the KKH. “The width of the highway,” according to SASAC, “will be expanded from 10 meters to 30 meters, and its transport capacity will be increased three times. Also, the upgraded road will be constructed to particularly accommodate heavy-laden vehicles and extreme weather conditions.”
@ Asian Current

 

[U-571]

please explain me tht, the mountain land slidings r common in karakoram, widening the track wuld make any difference??

second, will the karakoram route elongate the trade route or not??

 

[Samlee]

Chahbahar Seems To Be Just Foolish Pride on Part of Both India and Iran.My Prediction is That Unless Iran Adresses its Political Issues with The West,Chahbahar Will Become a White Elephant.This Is Why
1.China has Not Made Multi Billion Dollar Investment in Gwadar Today so That it Can Start Trading in Chahbahr Tommorow.So The Worlds Fastest Growing Economy Will Not Be Trading In Chahbahar but Through Gwadar.
2.Inspite Of All Our Problems Pakistan Is Still Officially an Ally of The West So Western Countries Would Definitely Prefer Pakistan over Iran If They Start Importing The $5 Trillion Worth of Raw Materials and Energy Suppliesfrom Central Asia and Western Siberia
3.Eventually Indian Traders Would Also Prefer Gwadar over Chahbahar Because The Distance Is Shorter and Thus Transport Costs Are Less

 

[Samlee]

Those Who Claim That Chahbahar is A Challenge To Gwadar Forget That
1.Iran Faces Various Economic and Trade Sanctions
2.Iran is A Tight State Controlled Economy Where 80% OF Foreign Trade is In Govt. Hands Whereas Pakistan is a Highly Open and Deregulated Economy

 

[Serpentine]

Those Who Claim That Chahbahar is A Challenge To Gwadar Forget That
1.Iran Faces Various Economic and Trade Sanctions
2.Iran is A Tight State Controlled Economy Where 80% OF Foreign Trade is In Govt. Hands Whereas Pakistan is a Highly Open and Deregulated Economy

You are forgetting the fact that in order to reach central Asian countries thorough Gwadar,you have Afghanistan on your way,the most unstable country in the world.But Iran have borders with Turkmenistan and also access to the Caspian sea and have a Railroad network from Chabahar to central Asia.Including sanctions,Iran's economy is still much more powerful than Pakistan and is going fast toward privatization and a free economy.

 

[darkinsky]

You are forgetting the fact that in order to reach central Asian countries thorough Gwadar,you have Afghanistan on your way,the most unstable country in the world.But Iran have borders with Turkmenistan and also access to the Caspian sea and have a Railroad network from Chabahar to central Asia.Including sanctions,Iran's economy is still much more powerful than Pakistan and is going fast toward privatization and a free economy.

1) only narrow wakhan corridor separates pakistan from tajikistan

2) pakistan is connected to china the biggest exporter not iran

3) pakistan has a deep sea port, iran doesnt, i dont think chahbahr is a deep sea port, not deep like gwadar

4) gwadar is located near india, also pakistan has good relations with arab countries not like iran

5)chahbahr is located in a gulf, and gawadr is located in a wide open sea

 

[KRAIT]

Worth reading......Detailed Analysis

A Tale Of Two Ports

 

[Serpentine]

1) only narrow wakhan corridor separates pakistan from tajikistan

2) pakistan is connected to china the biggest exporter not iran

3) pakistan has a deep sea port, iran doesnt, i dont think chahbahr is a deep sea port, not deep like gwadar

4) gwadar is located near india, also pakistan has good relations with arab countries not like iran

5)chahbahr is located in a gulf, and gawadr is located in a wide open sea

It seems you still don't know the difference between a Gulf and open sea.
Baluchistan province in Pakistan is still unstable and dangerous for a growing and steady trade.
despite some political problems,Iran has huge economic ties with Arab countries especially UAE and Qatar and also Oman.
For you information,Chabahar port is deep enough for the largest tankers and ships to use it.So it doesn't matter if Gwader is deeper or not.
Gwader is located near India,but what is the point when two countries are still hostile?India has good relations with Iran and so does China.
Pakistan doesn't have the necessary railroad to transfer the goods to central Asia and building a railroad also can be ery expensive because of high mountains.

 

[darkinsky]

It seems you still don't know the difference between a Gulf and open sea.
Baluchistan province in Pakistan is still unstable and dangerous for a growing and steady trade.
despite some political problems,Iran has huge economic ties with Arab countries especially UAE and Qatar and also Oman.
For you information,Chabahar port is deep enough for the largest tankers and ships to use it.So it doesn't matter if Gwader is deeper or not.
Gwader is located near India,but what is the point when two countries are still hostile?India has good relations with Iran and so does China.
Pakistan doesn't have the necessary railroad to transfer the goods to central Asia and building a railroad also can be ery expensive because of high mountains.

deep port also means many ships can anchor simultaneously, as for railroads being built on mountaineous territory so it will cost a little bit more but pakistan is already building rail link in karakorams, its hard engineering but quite possible

 

[Kaniska]

It seems you still don't know the difference between a Gulf and open sea.
Baluchistan province in Pakistan is still unstable and dangerous for a growing and steady trade.
despite some political problems,Iran has huge economic ties with Arab countries especially UAE and Qatar and also Oman.
For you information,Chabahar port is deep enough for the largest tankers and ships to use it.So it doesn't matter if Gwader is deeper or not.
Gwader is located near India,but what is the point when two countries are still hostile?India has good relations with Iran and so does China.
Pakistan doesn't have the necessary railroad to transfer the goods to central Asia and building a railroad also can be ery expensive because of high mountains.

Dude...Do you have any latest information about Chabar port? Any information will be helpful..