Can Congress + Allies pull of 2019?

[pothead]

Looking from the other side to see what they need to do to pull off 2019.

Let's get the big states out of the way -

UP - Congress irrelevant. Unless SP+BSP+Cong get together, it's going to be another landslide for the good guys. Even if all 3 parties get together, Cong will not be getting more than 5-10 LS seats to fight. More importantly there is no guarantee that SP or BSP won't do a Nitish post elections. Worse for Congress, they might not even win Amethi and Bareily.

Bihar - Done and dusted, there is nothing anyone can do in this state. It would be a wonder if Lallu + COng can win a single LS seat in 2019.

MP - Encore of 2014.

Maharashtra - With Rane forming his own party. It's a check mate for SS. They will fall in line and behave. Oh, they will cry, kick and scream but there is not much going on for them outside of Mumbai. Cong is looking at oblivion in this state if NCP does not join hands. If BJP + SS join hands, it's curtains for Cong. If not, few seats possible.

Gujarat - Encore of 2014.

Rajasthan - Will be tough battle. BJP will not do as good as 2014. Still slight advantage to BJP. Cong will do better here no doubt.

Bengal - Mamta all the way. BJP might pick up few seats to surprising us. Cong and Left will be decimated. I wouldn't be surprised if Cong and Left together might score ZERO here. Point is, for all her rhetoric, will Mamta support Cong post elections?

Karnataka - Close fight. BJP Karnataka needs young guys with fresh ideas. Yeddy is a quick fix. Congress is doing better than expected here due to incompetence of BJP local leaders. Slight advantage to BJP. Don't forget where Gowdas will swing though. If BJP offers them good deal or Congress does, it might be tough for other side.

Telangana - KCR all the way. He will do better than last time. Cong might be looking at numbers worse than last time, especially since KCR poached TDP cadre big time. BJP might also not win any unless they buck u big time. KCR will never support Cong in centre, unless they make him a deal he can't refuse.

AP- Depends on which way BJP swings, whether they support Babu or Jagan. Close fight. Not much for anyone else. Advantage BJP either way. Both won't support Cong

TN - Probably the most difficult state to predict at this point. One thing for sure, Cong is not going to score much or will be close to ZERO. We know AIADMK will support BJP and DMK will go with Cong.

Kerala - Commies & BJP are fighting for the same vote share. Very difficult to predict the numbers but I doubt Cong will do worse than what they have done here in 2014. All depends on traction BJP will receive, which will affect vote share of everyone around.

Orissa - Cong will be zero here. It will BJP and BJD here all the way. They will probably split the state.

Punjab - Cong has the edge here. Might be similar to 2014, unless Akalis stop being timid.

Haryana - Cong will be decimated here. Unlike the media reports, the ground reality of caste politics and the paradoxes of Cong won't sit well in this state.

Uttarkhand - Another decimation awaits cong here in 2019.

HP - BJP will have edge, how big we will know after the elections.

Assam - Revival of Cong in Assam is over-rated.

Cong has lost the Hindi heart land. Worse for them, since 2014, their position seems to be getting worse in most big states. It is realistically possible that Cong will not win a single seat in UP, Bihar, WB, Orissa, Gujarat, AP and MP. That's nearly 250 seats where Cong may not open an account.

Pan India, Cong on their best day may win around 100 seats in 2019.
I am not sure how they are going to attract allies with just 100 seats.
Will it be third front with Cong supporting from outside??
Or will Cong be able to pull off coalition with just 100 seats.

 

[pothead]

Now let's look at the coalitions in states -

Most critical one would be UP -
Would Mayawati drink poison and align with people who almost killed her? She is a very proud lady and what the SP goons did to her is something she has not forgotten. More importantly, does she still remember it was the RSS guys who rushed to her help her when the state machinery was standing at the sidelines looking at her humiliation?
More importantly, if she goes into alliance, she would be getting 20-30 seats to contest. That would effectively mean curtains for BSP by next assembly elections.
Lastly, what if Amit Shah makes an offer she can't refuse?
Yes, an alliance of SP+BSP+Cong would be formidable in UP. What it would also do is polarize voters like never before. It will be a dent for BJP in this scenario where it could easily affect around 30 seats.

Bihar -
There is no alliance Lalu and Cong could make that will bring them laurels over BJP + Nitish.
It's already game over in Bihar. Would not surprise me if the opposition does not win a single seat in Bihar in 2019.

Maharashtra-
The new joker in the pack, Rane has certainly added to the worries of all parties.
Would SS ditch BJP? If they did, what are their options? They may be looking at oblivion in LS elections if this happens and they are fighting lone battle.
Would SS ditch BJP and join Cong + NCP? A long possibility but that would mean they will loose all their USP to BJP. Their best bet even now is to ally with BJP.
Now coming to NCP, what they will do depends on whether SS allies with BJP or not AND what kind of a deal Amit Shah offers to Pawar under the table. Pawar and BJP has no acrimony outside of politics.
Lastly, what would make NCP and SS join Cong for electoral gains?

Punjab -
Cong will not want alliance with anyone.
So, how would Akali + BJP Combine fare? They panicked in Assembly elections and bought into the AAP hype. They lost the war before it even began. I doubt they would make the same mistake again.
AAP will loose the space they gained in Punjab.

Karnataka -
What will Deva Gowda do?
He does not like BJP and he does like Siddiramayya.
If he joins Congress, it will be huge advantage to COng.
He may try to stay neutral and try to get best deal for his son. Not so cut and dry case.

 

[wiseone2]

if congress wins or forms a government who is the prime minister ?

 

[pothead]

if congress wins or forms a government who is the prime minister ?

I am not seeing a path where Congress is winning more than 100 seats on their best day.

If you look at the numbers, this is over estimating them -
UP - 3
MP -5
Guj -3
Haryana - 5
Telangana - 6
Karnataka - 14
Kerala - 10
Chattisgarh - 4
Maharashtra - 5
Punjab - 7
Rajashthan - 12
TN - 2
WB - 5
Others - 25

I am being generous in some states. If the alliances don't happen in WB, UP, Maharashtra, you are looking at wipe out in these states.
And I gave them few seats in UP, WB & Gujarat just in case...

With just 100, where is congress getting the numbers from others to form the govt? Why would others allow COng to form the govt anyway?

If Cong gets 100 and BJP is around 50 seats short of majority, Would BJP even loose sleep poaching others?

 

[maravan91]

Vajpayee is more or equal as modi in popularity in 2004. He had way better economic performance than modi. Still he lost 2004 elections.

 

[pothead]

Vajpayee is more or equal as modi in popularity in 2004. He had way better economic performance than modi. Still he lost 2004 elections.

And that's a lesson BJP learnt the hard way.
It's not just about economy.
It's not just about popularity, although it helps a bit.
It's more about social coalitions.

BJP is winning not just because of Modi. The larger impact is the social coalitions they have built.
For example, you won't find more god fearing Hindus than in Telangana, TN and Andhra. Strangely, many of the Bramhins in and around Chennai prefer DMK to AIADMK. Same with Hindus in TG and AP.
The reason for this paradox has to do with how the cadre of political party is in the state, the social coalition, the work done by party and leader factor.
Cong was a power house in AP and today they won't win a seat there. It's because they don't have a base left.
Similar case in UP, Bihar, WB etc.

BJP at it's worst will bring in 200 seats.
Cong at it's best will bring in 100 seats.

That's because BJP has built the party since 2014 in states where it had no presence.
Where as Cong has lost severe footing in states it has presence. In some states they are on the verge of extinction.

 

[punit]

if congress wins or forms a government who is the prime minister ?

Does not matter. Real power will still be with sonia gandhi.

Vajpayee is more or equal as modi in popularity in 2004. He had way better economic performance than modi. Still he lost 2004 elections.

BJP peaked prematurally ( winning state elections in MP, Rajasthan etc ) also all its allies except JDU were decimated in 2004.

 

[Fireurimagination]

Compared to 2014 BJP will get dented 20% at most, if they can cover that from Southern states, Bengal, Orissa, NE and Maharashtra they will be good.

 

[pothead]

Compared to 2014 BJP will get dented 20% at most, if they can cover that from Southern states, Bengal, Orissa, NE and Maharashtra they will be good.

From my analysis that's just one part of the equation.

Before 2014, in many states BJP going down meant Cong gaining.

After 2014, where BJP has gained new states, Cong is getting decimated where they are reaching 3rd or 4th position in few states.
Maharashtra would be interesting next few years. Will Cong loose the opposition to SS? That would be sic.

 

[t_for_talli]

Problem is there is no opposition/ no leader in Cong, so even if BJP performs badly (~180),

It will be next impossible for Cong to get 150+ from coalition parties, I am assuming Cong getting 120 seats in best case scenario

 

[Ashesh]

Compared to 2014 BJP will get dented 20% at most, if they can cover that from Southern states, Bengal, Orissa, NE and Maharashtra they will be good.

BJP is making Inroads in Rural Heartland.

 

[pothead]

Problem is there is no opposition/ no leader in Cong, so even if BJP performs badly (~180),

It will be next impossible for Cong to get 150+ from coalition parties, I am assuming Cong getting 120 seats in best case scenario

You are looking at the below Worst case scenario for BJP and above Best case scenario for Cong.

Still, you are spot on. On their best performance, Cong still needs 150+ seats.

Anyway, going by what BJP has done in Goa and Manipur, do you think BJP will even give Cong a chance even if they are short by a 100 votes? Unlike previous BJP leadership, Amit Shah will make moves even before the results are out.

BJP is making Inroads in Rural Heartland.

Yup, the Gas connection + electricity connections can not be underestimated in the impact it has had on BJP electoral success.

 

[Levina]

Thought i will post this here.

Congress is desperate>>>

https://twitter.com/x/status/917980116726272000

 

[Fireurimagination]

From my analysis that's just one part of the equation.

Before 2014, in many states BJP going down meant Cong gaining.

After 2014, where BJP has gained new states, Cong is getting decimated where they are reaching 3rd or 4th position in few states.
Maharashtra would be interesting next few years. Will Cong loose the opposition to SS? That would be sic.

Challenge is for BJP to get majority on it's own. They can always add AIADMK, BJD etc to NDA and rule but that won't be fun.

 

[pothead]

Thought i will post this here.

Congress is desperate>>>

https://twitter.com/x/status/917980116726272000

Well maam, Congress are winning somewhere

Although, the poll gives Congress high numbers. Wouldn't be surprised if Cong gets half the number of projected seats.

Challenge is for BJP to get majority on it's own. They can always add AIADMK, BJD etc to NDA and rule but that won't be fun.

True, they will try for that.
Politics is all about being realistic.
if Amit Shah smells close fight, he will make secondary plans to form govt.

I would rather take a coalition BJP govt over anything Cong offers.