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CAD shrinks 78pc in 2019-20

Ivan

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Shahid Iqbal
Updated 22 Jul, 2020
5f17ac16c47b4.jpg

The current account deficit narrowed to $2.966 billion in FY20, down 78.6pc compared to $13.434bn in the previous fiscal year. — AFP/File


KARACHI: The country’s current account deficit in fiscal year 2019-20 fell by 78 per cent mainly on account of significant decline in imports, record high remittances and foreign direct investment during the period under review, latest data issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed on Tuesday.

The current account deficit narrowed to $2.966 billion in FY20, down 78.6pc compared to $13.434bn in the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile, in FY18, the current account deficit was $20bn.

This massive decline also helped government improve its foreign exchange reserves through a sharp reduction in the import bill.

The government had intervened through increasing duties and taxes to cut down the import bill in order to reduce the trade deficit.


According to SBP data, the current account deficit in FY20 fell to 1.1pc of GDP compared to 4.8pc in FY19.

Details showed that exports in the fiscal year under review fell by 7.2pc to $22.505bn. Exporters claim the fall was due to cancellation of exports orders since March when Covid-19 hit international markets and exports came to a halt.

The SBP data further showed that the imports fell by $9.45bn or 18.2pc to $42.419bn. The imports in FY19 were $51.869bn.

The fall in imports helped the government narrow the trade deficit — major driver behind the large current account deficit booked in FY18 and FY19.

The deficit in balance on trade of goods during FY20 was $19.914bn compared to $27.612bn (deficit) in the previous fiscal year. Similarly, the deficit in balance of trade in services fell to $2.835bn from $4.97bn in the corresponding year.

The overall deficit in balance on trade of goods and services fell to $22.749bn compared to $32.582bn in FY19; a decline of $9.833bn.

The numbers showed that the government succeeded in bringing down both the trade and current account deficits.

However, it relied on import compression instead of increasing exports — which fell compared to the preceding year.

The government and the SBP have extended a range of incentives to the exports sector in the form of cheaper money and facilitating exporters to pay back their dues. Reports in media suggest that the international markets are now gradually reopening which may help exporters to resume exports from Pakistan in the next few months.

Moreover, the record $23bn remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis in FY20 also helped reduce the current account deficit on a large scale. The 78pc deficit decline would aid the SBP to maintain its foreign exchange reserves in FY21 which touched a three-year high last week.

The pressure on forex reserves also eased after the G-20 deferred Pakistan’s debt repayments due in this calendar year. However, about 30pc increase in imports in June FY20 indicates that the imports are likely to increase despite low petroleum prices.

However, exporters could offset that increase with the help of incentives to reduce the trade gap.

Published in Dawn, July 22nd, 2020
 
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when loan repayments are deferred u.s dollar is approaching 170Pkr and when we have to pay them then dollar will pass 200Pkr,govt is failing in supporting economy and rupee value and will eventually lead to much disaster if rupee devaluation becomes out of control
 
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when loan repayments are deferred u.s dollar is approaching 170Pkr and when we have to pay them then dollar will pass 200Pkr,govt is failing in supporting economy and rupee value and will eventually lead to much disaster if rupee devaluation becomes out of control


my question -

why is dollar not coming down when CAD is almost nil ?
 
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it seems that decline in cad is due to decrease in imports of essential raw material and machinery needed for industrial growth and not due to rise in exports
my question -

why is dollar not coming down when CAD is almost nil ?
 
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my question -

why is dollar not coming down when CAD is almost nil ?
The increase is mainly due to lockdown effect as exchangers were not able to buy the dollars, there is an acute shortage of dollars in market. Combine that with state bank not releasing dollars and is building reserves which have crossed 12.05 billion and overall with commercial reserves 18.790 billion.
It will come down and stabilize over the next 2 months.

when loan repayments are deferred u.s dollar is approaching 170Pkr and when we have to pay them then dollar will pass 200Pkr,govt is failing in supporting economy and rupee value and will eventually lead to much disaster if rupee devaluation becomes out of control
Loan repayments are only deferred in case of major international
lenders e.g. ADB WB or IMF. We don't hold much debt as % to them, our loan repayments have increased.
Screenshot_20200722-112508.png
We are looking at 9.7 billion dollars in terms of principal and interest paid during the first 3 quarters of FY 2020.
Your second point no there will be no free fall in rupee value, the macro economic indicators are very stable. If the gov had not done what it did and continued with the same policy as previous government we would have been the next Argentina.

Shahid Iqbal
Updated 22 Jul, 2020
5f17ac16c47b4.jpg

The current account deficit narrowed to $2.966 billion in FY20, down 78.6pc compared to $13.434bn in the previous fiscal year. — AFP/File


KARACHI: The country’s current account deficit in fiscal year 2019-20 fell by 78 per cent mainly on account of significant decline in imports, record high remittances and foreign direct investment during the period under review, latest data issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed on Tuesday.

The current account deficit narrowed to $2.966 billion in FY20, down 78.6pc compared to $13.434bn in the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile, in FY18, the current account deficit was $20bn.

This massive decline also helped government improve its foreign exchange reserves through a sharp reduction in the import bill.

The government had intervened through increasing duties and taxes to cut down the import bill in order to reduce the trade deficit.


According to SBP data, the current account deficit in FY20 fell to 1.1pc of GDP compared to 4.8pc in FY19.

Details showed that exports in the fiscal year under review fell by 7.2pc to $22.505bn. Exporters claim the fall was due to cancellation of exports orders since March when Covid-19 hit international markets and exports came to a halt.

The SBP data further showed that the imports fell by $9.45bn or 18.2pc to $42.419bn. The imports in FY19 were $51.869bn.

The fall in imports helped the government narrow the trade deficit — major driver behind the large current account deficit booked in FY18 and FY19.

The deficit in balance on trade of goods during FY20 was $19.914bn compared to $27.612bn (deficit) in the previous fiscal year. Similarly, the deficit in balance of trade in services fell to $2.835bn from $4.97bn in the corresponding year.

The overall deficit in balance on trade of goods and services fell to $22.749bn compared to $32.582bn in FY19; a decline of $9.833bn.

The numbers showed that the government succeeded in bringing down both the trade and current account deficits.

However, it relied on import compression instead of increasing exports — which fell compared to the preceding year.

The government and the SBP have extended a range of incentives to the exports sector in the form of cheaper money and facilitating exporters to pay back their dues. Reports in media suggest that the international markets are now gradually reopening which may help exporters to resume exports from Pakistan in the next few months.

Moreover, the record $23bn remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis in FY20 also helped reduce the current account deficit on a large scale. The 78pc deficit decline would aid the SBP to maintain its foreign exchange reserves in FY21 which touched a three-year high last week.

The pressure on forex reserves also eased after the G-20 deferred Pakistan’s debt repayments due in this calendar year. However, about 30pc increase in imports in June FY20 indicates that the imports are likely to increase despite low petroleum prices.

However, exporters could offset that increase with the help of incentives to reduce the trade gap.

Published in Dawn, July 22nd, 2020

A summary by SBP
Screenshot_20200722-113038.png
 
Last edited:
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he country’s current account deficit in fiscal year 2019-20 fell by 78 per cent mainly on account of significant decline in imports, record high remittances and foreign direct investment
sums it up ,Import decline represents consumption and purchase power on the other side imports of Raw material is taking its toll on LSM sector which is -10.83 % this FY closed .What happened to export claims ?
 
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it seems that decline in cad is due to decrease in imports of essential raw material and machinery needed for industrial growth and not due to rise in exp

Majority of industries were shut down due to Covid, what would they do with the raw materials?

he country’s current account deficit in fiscal year 2019-20 fell by 78 per cent mainly on account of significant decline in imports, record high remittances and foreign direct investment
sums it up ,Import decline represents consumption and purchase power on the other side imports of Raw material is taking its toll on LSM sector which is -10.83 % this FY closed .What happened to export claims ?
We still managed 22.5 billion in exports in Covid environment when majority of our export destinations were in lockdown, literally there is no demand.
Pakistan exports were down by 6.8%
Bangladesh by 18%.
India by 14%.
Screenshot_20200722-121224.png
Screenshot_20200722-121236.png
Our industries were literally closed due to Covid, what else do you expect. 10% contraction is not a bad figure. Our GDP only contracted by 0.46% as compared to significant contraction in India and Bangladesh let alone the whole world.
 
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This is excellent news all around.

Those who are complaining about slight rupees decline in respect to Dollar should understand sometimes the Dollar appreciation is also related to its firming in the international markets, which also result rupees weak in comparison.

The exchange rate is not necessarily only driven by Pakistan trade deficit and reserves.
Such a reduction in Trade Deficit and current account deficit is great news. Over $10bn reduction is welcome.

Those who say that reduction in imports is effecting the production and resulting in the reduction of the GDP.
Should consider the Covid-19 effects.

The imports of consumer's end products like makeup and other products not essential is a good step.
If it effected the reduction of demand and slight decrease in the activities shouldn't be used as an excuse.
Pakistani imports of $51bn+ were unacceptable, period. No country with limited resources could afford to build up $14bn a year trade deficit.

To factor in the private companies loans Dar acquired giving sovereign guarantees, the situation was dire.

This is the biggest achievement of PTI government, Imran Khan concentrated bringing this monster under control in his first two years. It was a correct policy. Imagine if he didn't. Imagine if PMLN thugs were incharge until now!!

The result would have been Pakistan going bankrupt, defaulting on his international commitments.
Pakistan rupees hitting the roof going the way of Iranian currency.

Pakistan would not be able to get any loans.
And foremost Pakistan losing its "Nuclear status".
That was the end traitors Sharifs and Zardari were working on, on the behest of their masters.
Make no mistakes about it.
 
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We still managed 22.5 billion in exports in Covid environment when majority of our export destinations were in lockdown, literally there is no demand.
Pakistan exports were down by 6.8%
Bangladesh by 18%.
India by 14%.
Pre Corona the economic indicators were negative ,by the way the quality of exports remains poor as we depreciated rupee by 50% still we are not able to achieve the Export target
 
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Pre Corona the economic indicators were negative ,by the way the quality of exports remains poor as we depreciated rupee by 50% still we are not able to achieve the Export target
Screenshot_20200722-134954.png
Pre corona for the FY 2020 by Feb 2020
Exports were 16.43Billion.
In contrast
FY 2019 by Feb 2019
Exports 16.10 billion
FY 2018 by Feb 2018
Exports were 15.93 billion
 
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View attachment 653308 Pre corona for the FY 2020 by Feb 2020
Exports were 16.43Billion.
In contrast
FY 2019 by Feb 2019
Exports 16.10 billion
FY 2018 by Feb 2018
Exports were 15.93 billion
Here is another way of looking at it with out feeling too good about it.

upload_2020-7-22_15-43-19.png


so in 2018 Feb real growth was achieved adjusted for devaluation ,that also shows that devaluation has no impact on export growth
 

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Pre Corona the economic indicators were negative ,by the way the quality of exports remains poor as we depreciated rupee by 50% still we are not able to achieve the Export target

The exchange of the rupees is nothing to do with it. The Pak rupee was overvalued.
Remember what I said about the loans Dar got through 25 limited companies, giving sovereign guarantees of state of Pakistan.

Pakistan was responsible to pay the debt, but the loan figures were not showing in national foreign debts. This kept Pakistani rupees overvalued by huge margin.

I keep saying, Dar is the biggest threat to national security of Pakistan. He should be brought back and charged for treason.
But alas, who is going to do it!!

Pakistan is a country where COAS of its powerful army telephoned Maryam Nawaz giving her good news that her name is taken out as one of the accused in Dawn Leaks.
Even though she was the main character and architect of the whole saga, a dirty trick against the army of Pakistan.

Thank you Raheel Sharif.
 
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The exchange of the rupees is nothing to do with it. The rupees was overvalued.
Remember what I said about the loans Dar got through 25 limited companies, giving sovereign guarantees of state of Pakistan.
Therefore, Pakistan was responsible to pay, but the loan figures were not showing in national foreign debts. This kept Pakistani rupees overvalued by huge margin.

I keep saying, Dar is the biggest threat to national security of Pakistan. He should be brought back and charged for treason.
But alas, who is going to do it!!
Pakistan is a country where COAS of its powerful army telephoned Maryam Nawaz giving her good news that her name is taken out as one of the accused in Dawn Leaks.
Even though she was the main character and architect of the whole saga, a dirty trick against the army of Pakistan.
Thank you Raheel Sharif.
lol first you people say rupee over value then loans ,by the way you know what loan figures are now ? It is 10 Trillion added on telly of 24 Trillion ,There is no word as loan ,its loans to GDP where we are on this ? Aur kis kis ka shukriya ada kerna hai .
 
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Pakistan is not locked down completely and we are following policy of smart lockdown where industries are allowed to operate by following sops and also our gdp was declining even before covid19 due to decline in industrial activity,every country even u.s who are most adversely affected by covid19 unlike Pakistan are continuing their major industry in this pandemic and you see their companies like spacex,tesla,amazon and apple etc launching and producing new products,our currency is worst performing in region,even bangladesh and other small countries in region have much better performing currencies and this is happening when we are not facing u.n sanctions,rupee free fall risk exists and will occur in matter of no time if u.s and their allies impose sanctions like they are doing against china and we must have to prepare better in case of such risk which is becoming more evident after u.s and their allies are becoming close to india
Majority of industries were shut down due to Covid, what would they do with the raw materials?


We still managed 22.5 billion in exports in Covid environment when majority of our export destinations were in lockdown, literally there is no demand.
Pakistan exports were down by 6.8%
Bangladesh by 18%.
India by 14%.View attachment 653288 View attachment 653289 Our industries were literally closed due to Covid, what else do you expect. 10% contraction is not a bad figure. Our GDP only contracted by 0.46% as compared to significant contraction in India and Bangladesh let alone the whole world.
 
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lol first you people say rupee over value then loans ,by the way you know what loan figures are now ? It is 10 Trillion added on telly of 24 Trillion ,There is no word as loan ,its loans to GDP where we are on this ? Aur kis kis ka shukriya ada kerna hai .

Yeah sure, why don't you thank yourself!!!
That would be first. :agree::rofl::rofl:
 
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