graphican
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2009
- Messages
- 12,433
- Reaction score
- 48
- Country
- Location
Building Response to 4GW (4th Generation warfare) By Farzana Shah
The weak and the defenseless in this world invite aggression from others. The best way we can serve peace is by removing the temptation from the path of those who think we are weak and, for that reason, they can bully or attack us. That temptation can only be removed if we make ourselves so strong that nobody dare entertain any aggressive designs against us. (Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, 1948)
Keeping above statement of founding father in view, Pakistan kept on building its defenses for decades. After 1971, these preparations got a renewed momentum. New defense industry was established to acquire self-reliance in defense but all these preparations proved inadequate in recent war against terrorism.
The more security forces advancing into militant strongholds in FATA the more Pakistani urban centers are becoming victims of terrorism. Recent violence in Karachi and Lahore is biggest example. Though overall security situation is improving but there is no logical end in sight of this complex war against terror in Pakistan.
At beginning it was believed that this is just an insurgency stemmed as a renegade against state policy of allying with US in GWOT (Global War on Terror) but with passage of time it became clear that it is not just armed insurgencies that are undermining Pakistans national security but a direct foreign meddling is a bigger bone of contention, in almost all state affairs ranging from media to education, economics to foreign policy.
From a larger perspective Pakistan is facing biggest challenges and threats from within from different terrorist outfits and insurgencies for different reasons but at minute level all these challenges are interconnected and through recent revelations during military operations in FATA and Swat it has become evident that almost all the major security challenges the state is facing today on various fronts are strongly bonded with each other tightly and elements involved in every challenge can merely be traced connected with each other and this is the fundamental feature of something known as Fourth Generation Warfare or 4GWs.
Intro to 4GWs (4th Generation warfare)
Like said above heterogeneous and distributed nature of current complex geo-strategic security challenges Pakistan is facing are a proposition of 4th generation warfare waged by various hostile and allies in pursuit of their own greater gains in the region. Before discussing these greater gains of various regional and international players it would be prudent to inspect what 4th generation is all about?
In simplistic terms, 4th generation warfare is a moral and physiological conflict among many countries or communities using distributed, non-state and violent elements from within enemy state. Creating mistrust among enemy communities and propagating uncertainty among enemy nations are other goals of any 4th generation endeavor. By gaining higher moral ground any state can get all the political help and sympathy in an actual conflict. 4th generation warfare is very different from an actual armed conflict as its entirely based on asymmetrical warfare and tactics and the major front is physiological not physical as in a real conflict. Putting in altogether it can be said that national cohesion becomes a primary target of such warfare model. Importance of destroying national unity and creating mistrust becomes more relevant when enemy is an ideological state like Pakistan.
At tactical level various tactics and elements are employed to get these goals like rare area operations means supporting armed insurgencies and terrorism on the one hand and centrifugal forces in enemys political system, media and civil society on the other. The latter group of elements highlights (Subjectively analyses) the actions of former (terrorism) in order to launch Psychological operations against enemy nation to demoralize the enemy society. Economic manipulation, whenever possible, can serve as an extra tool in this kind of warfare. Recently Globalization has been used as a tool to manipulate the market accesses by more industrialized nations that can potentially undermine economic interests of developing nations. Fragile economic conditions in enemy state have always been proved conducive in 4th generation warfare as it makes it much easier to manipulate allegiance of masses with national fervor.
Tracing 4GW in Pakistan
Pakistan is facing covert security challenges from multiple hostile entities these includes states, groups, powerful lobbies, media outlets etc. Traditionally Pakistans overt and covert defense has remained India centric. As geographically India is located in East of Pakistan so mainly focus also remained in Punjab and Sindh, the two provinces bordering India. Due to this fact it proved easier for many criminal groups to stay out of radar for a long period of time while operating in Pakistans Northern Province. India got opportunity to put his feet in Afghanistan and launch rare area operations against Pakistan from there. India after entering into Afghanistan started work on recruit and train ad-hoc warriors into Pakistan to fight an Indian proxy war against Pakistani state and military.
Players
In order to trace 4GW tactics and elements in Pakistan and their foreign supporters studying ongoing counter insurgency operations, violent non-state actors (VNSAs) involved in these insurgencies, foreign support these elements are getting and political developments in the country are very important.
Main actors of 4GW against Pakistan are paid insurgent groups in northwestern parts and in Baluchistan. These paid insurgents have been joined by the local extremists and separatist elements from these areas. Recent revelations have proved it beyond doubt that these terrorist groups are receiving financial and tactical help from Indian consulates on Afghan soil despite presence of US in Afghanistan to whom Pakistan is a major non NATO ally since last 9 years. This is where US involvement in ongoing 4th generation offensive becomes disturbing and malicious.
Till very recently it was believed that US was just turning a blind eye to Indian activities in Afghanistan against Pakistan but now it has become clear that US covert offensive against Pakistan is much more heinous than envisaged earlier. Elements in US military, intelligence setup and White House has bought the idea that actual cause for Afghan resistance is Pakistan so first it must be fixed. A whole new doctrine for Pakistan was devised under the name of ****** declaring Pakistan a battle field along with Afghanistan.
Actually this absurd theory was originally sold to US administration during Bush era by Indian lobby in Washington. Indians also pushed the idea to know how to handle Pakistan better. Though earlier US allowed India to play a greater role in Afghanistan. But Indians had their own plans in Afghanistan about Pakistan. Pakistan did protest to US on allowing India a freehand but it seems that Indian lobby in Washington was too strong to undo US reliance on India on ******. Both India and US have their own targets in the region and both are using their tactics accordingly on all axis. If Indian sponsored insurgents are active in FATA, US sponsored elements are sitting right in the higher echelons of government. For US it is far easier to maneuver Pakistans political landscape.
Tactics
Pakistan is confronting two pronged 4th generation attacks both from India and US. Both countries have issues with Pakistans foreign policy. For India, Pakistans stance on Kashmir is something needs to be changed in foreign policy. For US, Pakistan must oblige to US foreign policy strategic objective where India has a greater role in the region to counterweight China.
Over lapping and commonality in foreign policy interests, with regard to Pakistan, of both countries is unprecedented. This is major driver behind combined efforts to fix Pakistan. The only difference between both countries approaches is tactics being employed against Pakistan. Indian tactics revolves around declaring Pakistan as a non functional and terrorist state through supporting TTP from Afghanistan and more recently through manipulating agriculture in Pakistan by blocking water flows in Pakistani rivers.
Above: TTP is prime 4th generation warfare force engaging Pakistani state and military inside Pakistani border.
Fourth generation warfare revolves around the idea of creating a complete political paralysis in enemy state or in area of operation. Atrocities committed by the TTP in FATA and Swat are a clear proof of this fact. First target of TTP in both areas was political figures of the area and this awful practice created an environment of fear and hopelessness among local masses. Absence of political leadership created an atmosphere of lawlessness and chaos giving TTP free hand to recruit, train and arm locals against state by imposing its own ideology and political views on people due to fear. Recent disclosure has made it clear that TTP is biggest ad-hoc warrior group in Pakistan serving its foreign sponsors as well as carrying out its local agenda and self-styled Islamic ideology.
US covert activities in Pakistan have surfaced in media recently clearly indicating that Pakistan and US are bound together through compulsion of circumstances. In reality certain US citizens dont even bother to follow regulations implemented under Pakistani laws. Not only this, same US nationals have threaten Pakistani citizen more than once. Though very disturbing for Pakistani masses but these events look smaller if one looks at what powerful lobbies in US administration are trying to do in Pakistan on other axis of this war.
AXIS OF WAR
Pakistan is facing attacks of 4th generation warfare ad-hoc warriors supported directly by Indian RAW and indirectly by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan and local Pakistani elements. These ad-hoc warriors are just one dimension of this complex armed duel between state and these non-state actors. Other dimensions include propaganda waged against Pakistan and its nuclear program in particular, economic manipulation by US in war on terror to pressurize Pakistan and by India through its water policy in Kashmir.
Geostrategic / Military Axis
Establishing strategic hegemony in South Asia is primeval Indian dream. Pakistan is not only a major military rival of India but is major obstacle in fulfilling this dream. To remove this obstacle Indian establishment is working since independence. India got major break through in her policy in 1971 with secession of East Pakistan. India played primary role in this secession. Further dismemberment of remaining Pakistan into smaller states on ethnic lines is something India is trying to do since decades.
After 9/11 in form of USA, India found a natural ally in pursuing this sinister agenda against Pakistan. With US complicity India launched high intensity proxy war against Pakistani state in northwestern areas and FATA from Afghanistan. Indian consulates in all major towns along Pakistani border in Afghanistan are funding and supporting this insurgency since 2005. India wants to accomplish multiple strategic goals through this insurgency;
1. To bring Pakistan to its knees by declaring Pakistan as a failed state.
2. Building a case against Pakistan being a failed state with nuclear arms which can fell into wrong hands.
3. Once declared a failed state Pakistan will be denuclearized by international community under various global agreements.
To get Pakistan denuclearized is first step of bigger strategic Indian plan. Next Phase is to invade Pakistan physically which is not possible under a nuclear hangover right now. Denuclearization of Pakistan is a common agenda between American and Indian foreign polices for Pakistan. This is the reason why strong lobbies in US state and defense departments bought Indian plan on Pakistan to denuclearize Pakistan after declaring it failed state unable to protect its nuclear arsenal.
Above: Large cache of Indian ammunition has been recovered during Pakistan military operations in FATA and Swat further proving Indian 4GW.
Recent military operations by Pakistan army in FATA and Swat have thwarted first phase of this Indian game plan for now. But Due to lack of governance and administrative measures in insurgency hit areas the threat of resurrection of this insurgency is far from over.
After sensing losing massive investment on its 4GW warriors in Pakistan India launched massive diplomatic offensive to declare Pakistan army and intelligence agencies as terrorist organizations in UNO after 26/11 incident. Interestingly legal proceedings and investigations of this incident is still continues but Indian government was very eager to get ISI involved into this act.
Under the pretext of 26/11, Indian top military brass has made its intentions clear about peace and security in the region. Indian officials time and again said India is ready to launch a full scale intense but small war on Pakistan another Mumbai style attack happened. This stance by Indian leadership is itself a threatening development for regional peace. Indian announcements of execution of Cold Start strategy are a grave concern for Pakistans security.
Giving statements like these is one aspect of Indian strategy while on the other hand Indians are smartly playing as messenger of peace in the world while putting blame on Pakistan for every terrorist activity in India. Pakistan army has recovered Indian weapons and ammunition but Islamabad failed to build a case against its arch rival for supporting insurgencies and terrorism in Pakistan.
Geopolitical Axis
Indian foreign policy and diplomacy is another indicator that India is now aggressively working on isolating Pakistan in international community on the pretext of being unable to apprehend the terrorists involved in Mumbai terrorists attacks. So far Indian efforts have been pretty successful thanks to defensive and apologetic Pakistani stance right from the beginning.
First the Indians brought the matter to UN without completing investigations and its own legal proceedings about Mumbai attacks now in the second phase Indian foreign office is approaching capitals in the region where Pakistani lobby has been considered stronger traditionally. Recent visit of Indian premier to Saudi Arabia is one such example where matter of terrorism from Pakistani soil was also taken up by India. The reaction of concerned departments of Saudi Arabia must be a quick reminder to Pakistani foreign office that Indian efforts are very advance to isolate Pakistan internationally.
Pakistani stance in UN on the Indian dossier was very fragile and caused great deal of embarrassment to the nation and helped the Indian cause to portray Pakistan as hub of terrorists. Even the retired military officials were nominated in the resolution to be declared as terrorists.
An isolated and morally weak Pakistan will be much easier to attack or fight in an actual conflict. Recent Shift in Indian military doctrine is a clear indicator of that as well.
To defame Pakistan, Indians have internationalized Mumbai attack but never accepted Pakistani assistance in investigations. The case of Samjotha Express has been buried under the dust of time as it implicated Indian religious fundamentalists in terror but Mumbai remained open just to defame Pakistan.
US covert operations against Iran from Afghanistan also played main role in destabilizing Pak-Iran relations. CIA formed Jundullah to launch low scale insurgency in Iranian Baluchistan (Sistan- Baluchistan). This insurgent group with help and on directions from CIA carried out multiple suicide attacks in Iranian Eastern province bordering Pakistan. As a result not only relationship between two brotherly countries turned sour but sectarian violence also erupted in Pakistan.
Geo-economic Axis
India is trying to manipulate Pakistans economy through its water aggression against Pakistan. Natural landscape and geography of subcontinent has provided India with an opportunity to India to openly work for blocking Pakistans water from Indus Basin Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus) which were allocated to Pakistan in IWT 1960. Pakistani concerned authorities already have assessed that by 2014 India can stop water to Pakistani fertile land for a considerably long period of time to prevent sowing crops in time.
The so-called peace initiatives between the two countries till this date have failed to address Pakistanis on this sensitive but important issue while India kept on building dams in Kashmir on Pakistani rivers to bring Pakistan on its knees by destroying its agriculture.
Above: A map showing various dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir. India is building these dams without any prior discussion with Pakistan which is a clear violation of IWT 1960.
Media / Psychological Axis
In international media Pakistan is being represented as the most dangerous place for world peace as it is a state too vulnerable to protect its nuclear arsenal which can fall into wrong hands. Despite the assurances from all levels from Pakistan, the propaganda against Pakistans nuclear weapons and their safety kept on intensifying during last two years.
The recent development in media offensive against Pakistan is more disturbing as it has entered into media manipulation phase by buying elements in all the notable media outlets of Pakistan. According to reports some 50 million dollars have been allocated to be spending in Pakistani media by US administration in order to get a soft corner for US policies in the region. This is disturbing development for Pakistani media and masses as this will hijack the Pakistani media to portray events as per wishes of US.
Recently, Kerry Lugar bill faced severe criticism from every institute of Pakistan and among these institutes the most vocal was Pakistani media particularly Urdu media both print and electronic.
Though some elements in Pakistani media have remained critics of US policies in this country and in this region but never in 63 years of its history Pakistani media ever preached anti-American sentiments something to be eliminated or reduced from Pakistani media through this allocation of $50 million.
It seems to be a PR building campaign in Pakistan by US administration but it is evident after Kerry Lugar bill that US wants to shun any kind of criticism in Pakistani media on US policies as the official reason given for this allocation is very different from ground realities. Officially this money is to highlight development projects by US in Pakistan to build trust but interestingly no such project has been initiated yet so a logical question here is how US administration deems to highlight its cooperation with Pakistani masses without any actual cooperation on ground?
The timing of recent media allocation has raised many eyebrows in circles of critics of US policies. They feel the money will be used to expand the US footprint in Pakistani media to expand its psy-ops to mold opinion of masses as per US policy makers. One such example is Voice of America, a radio and TV platform that speaks for the government of the US already has a tie-up with Geo TV and now they have aligned with Express TV (the second largest Urdu news channel after Geo) as well.
US media is not the only entity having launched media war against Pakistan, but Indian media also joined the campaign particularly against Pakistani security establishment and its role in war on terror after Mumbai attacks in 2008. Strong Indian lobby in international media has also helped the cause to wage propaganda against Pakistani military and its role in war on terror. The idea that Pakistan military is actually helping Afghan Taliban against US and NATO was sold to the world by Indian elements through various reports by anonymous sources. This idea led US policy makers to believe in that Pakistan is actually double crossing US in global war on terror resultantly Pakistan had to face more pressure from US. The real intentions of India behind misleading US policy makers were to get some concession on Kashmir and water issues while keeping the world attention away from these outstanding core issues between two nuclear armed arch rivals in subcontinent.
Proposed Responses (Solutions)
Keeping all the facets of the 4GWs, being waged against Pakistan since 8 long years, it is evident that dealing with such threat is not possible by using one state organ alone like military or civilian administration. Even a combined effort by both sometime fails to pay dividend until seeking a broad public support and a complete national cohesion on defense, foreign and internal polices.
Anti Terrorism Operations
So far Pakistani military establishment has dealt with ongoing terrorism in a rather effective way adopting quickly to the new methods of urban asymmetrical counter insurgency operations within its own borders. But this must be understood that for the army also, this was a learning curve which came at a heavy cost. Hundreds of brave and brilliant officers and men have given their lives and limbs to fight a war army was not geared to fight traditionally. Now the entire Pakistan army has seen ruthless action in the last few years and is battle hardy and trained. Operations still continue to flush out the pockets of resistance by the TTP terrorists but the war on ground is not supported by the Psy-Ops in national media nor by the political will of the government.
The national judiciary has almost collapsed in response to this threat leaving the army almost without support from the State organs. This continues to increase pressure on the army which has to deal with the political, psychological and judicial side of the war as well. In an environment of lopsided priorities and badly managed national governance, pressure on armed forces has increased many folds.
Despite the overwhelming odds, army has done remarkably to neutralize the terrorist threats from this axis of the 4GW. But much more can be done to accelerate the process of cleanup and reduce the military as well as the collateral damage.
1. Urban environment ops have to be intelligence based as theatre of operations is friendly territory infested by insurgents within the friendly local population. Human Intelligence (HINT) as well as technical intelligence (TINT) remains the fundamental elements of any such operations. Tracking of cell and Satellite phones, use of drone technology, night surveillance capabilities remain critical to these operations. These capabilities need to be enhanced radically, almost to the levels of Police state or martial law in theatres of operations, as civil and judicial systems have collapsed in those regions. Army laws and military courts that dealwith civilian combatant or insurgents fighting the State or armed forces need to be invoked for short term to put the fear of God and law in the hearts of the terrorists.
2. Ideally, regular forces should not be used combat 4GW terrorists. Reserves and paramilitary forces are best options. Pakistan must train more of its paramilitary forces for this role with indigenous tactics and plans.
3. In rural environment, local friendly militias or Lashkars to support the military and the para-military to take the lead role in securing their regions to be backed by the State forces.
4. In the urban environment, a second tier of national defense needs to be created from educated urban youth. Pakistan used to have such a service, NCC, till late 90s. The compulsory military and civil defense training to the university youth should become mandatory to support security forces in urban environment search, security and neutralizing operations.
5. Due to its complex asymmetrical nature at every level it is very necessary to study enemys technical abilities. The Indian backed TTP and the BLA extensively use cyber world and cellular technology to their advantage. Also, Pakistani TTP has used IEDs, suicide bombing as main tactic against security forces and society and explosive laden vehicles have been proved most dangerous and destructive weapons. Proper anti-cyber terrorism units need to be aggressively active to check and track terrorists in cyber and cellular world. Also, a proper Vehicle Tracking & Management System with ability to track target vehicle at any time can be very useful in reducing the risk of such attacks.
6. After getting a bloody nose in FATA and Swat now militants are attacking Pakistani cities. So far this strategy of militants has worked much more effectively to achieve their objective of physiologically destroy morale of masses than traditional attacks on security forces in remote areas of NWFP and in FATA. Though both civilian and security forces are target of terrorists but in big cities like Lahore and Karachi it is civilians who have suffered more. In order to secure the cities it is imperative to enhance the technical intelligence as per needs of 21st century. Keeping every street in a city like Karachi or Lahore in sight all the time is a cumbersome job for any law enforcer regardless of how well trained its personnel are. It is time to incorporate emerging military technologies in urban centers for gathering information and to keep an eye in a particular area on high risk targets. Pakistan is making surveillance drones for many years now and has also exported these planes to foreign customers as well. It is time to adopt this surveillance technology in the cities to get real time intelligence on suspected entities in a particular city. Drones are much cheaper alternative to an expensive and more complex satellite based surveillance.
ABOVE: Arial View of Gulberg area, Lahore, where attack on Sri Lankan cricket team took place in 2009. It must be noted that with this congested road and street (Yellow lines in picture) network it is impossible to trace terrorists once they fled from crime scene. With Drones this deficiency in real time tactical surveillance can be overcome.
7. Another area of technical enhancement in COIN
operation is to enhance the ability to track enemys
hideouts. Traditional methods of implanting
someone in enemy ranks or buying out enemy assets
has not proved hundred percent foolproof as it is
very difficult to differentiate friends from foe in this
covert war. It is time for Pakistani security forces to
start concentrating on applications of implantable
GPS trackers to get exact location of a particular hostile entity.
Right: A human implantable GPS tracker.
8. Inter agency protocols for sharing sensitive information among various law enforcement bodies in the country has been traditionally a weak link in investigations. It is time to adopt new cutting edge technologies to build repositories with multiple access level to enhance cooperation among various law enforcement agencies and to enable these law enforcers to carry out real time investigations.
9. Absence of modern forensic labs is another hurdle in investigations. Pakistan must work to build state of the art forensic facility in the country as Pakistan and it must be equipped with all necessary technical facilities in this regard.
Governance & Administrative Measures
10. To win the ultimate 4th generation war it is imperative to eliminate all the root causes and supporting environment to ensure that enemy has no moral ground to maneuver its tactics hence denying a moral victory to enemy which is ultimate goal of 4th generation warfare. During last 8 years, Pakistani leadership took some steps to gain higher moral ground.
Recent example of such a move was peace deal in Swat before a comprehensive military operation against terrorists. Pakistan army and government got a high moral ground by signing that deal. TTP was exposed in the end to the masses along with all its atrocities in the name if Islam. But there were some severe mistakes where army lost its moral edge to terrorists. The drop scene of Lal Masjid operation in July 2007 was a major blow to Pakistan army in its anti-terrorism efforts and it provided an opportunity to hostile agencies to wage propaganda ops against Pakistan army by getting sympathies of local masses and families of victims of this operation despite the fact most of the students in Lal Masjid got killed due to being used as human shield by the terrorists. Lal masjid was a classic operation where bad and poorest perception and media management created a security crisis for the State and the armed forces later on.
Counter insurgency in 4th generation warfare is the most complex task at hand. Every operation has different tactical planning and execution requirements but Pakistan army and other forces must evaluate post operation circumstances particularly collateral damage with respect to ultimate strategic goal of 4th generation warfare i.e. winning a moral battle in every operation denying any opportunity to hostile elements to launch psy-ops against Pakistani state or army.
11. Operation Rah-i-Rast in Swat also a reminder of what can happen if a region is deprived of speedy justice for a long period of time. It has remain a dilemma in Pakistan that legal procedure in lower courts is haplessly non-existent denying the very justice for which the State exists. This has developed a reactionary approach in mass behavior in Pakistani society.
Like Justice, development is also an integral part of a peaceful society. It is responsibility of civilian government to raise the infrastructure of insurgency affected areas so that people can restart social and economic activities in these areas. Cooperation of international donors and NGOs may be engaged on own terms in these rehabilitation efforts. The sooner these areas return to normalcy the better it would be for overall law and order throughout the country. Along with infrastructure development government must also take steps to revive lost businesses and jobs of the locals.
12. Education sector reforms are need of the hour. Absence of uniform educational structure throughout the country has produced various kinds of social and religious dogmas in the society resultantly making national fabric more fragile instead of creating any national harmony which is a fundamental pillar of national stability and security. In recent insurgencies it has become evident that a loose government control over various religious and private educational systems in Pakistan has created a sense of deprivation in one faction and superiority complex in another and this vast gulf between these mindsets was successfully manipulated by the terrorist indoctrinators in the name of religion.
So it is imperative that government take all necessary steps to make education in Pakistan uniform for every faction of society. A strong over sight of religious schools is another area of urgent attention of government. It is time for government to present a model of educational institutes with a uniform general education standard throughout country to provide equal opportunities for all the students in practical life.
Diplomatic Response
From recent developments in the region on terrorism it is evident that a case against Pakistan is being prepared as a next staging area for any big terror attack anywhere in the world particularly in India or US. This idea of blaming Pakistan for being used by terrorists to recruit, train and send terrorists and to plan an attack on US or Indian soil came from aggressive Indian diplomatic offenses in major capitals of the world. The supporting factor was Pakistans old defensive foreign policy. It is time for Pakistan to present a strong case at world forums regarding its efforts in combating terrorism and sufferings Pakistani nation has faced during this bloody war. Pakistans foreign policy needs a major overhaul in this regard. Pakistan must also reject Do More.
13. Pakistan must keep Samjootha express case and Indian atrocities on Kashmiris alive in international community and media alike. Strong demand for inquiry into massacre of 59 innocent Pakistanis in Samjootha Express incident must be made and must be convened to all the capitals through Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan must not abandon its slain citizens killed by cold blooded Indian fanatics.
Above : Lt Col Prasad Srikant Purohit an active member of Abhinav Bharat, a Hindu outfit and mastermind of Samjhoota Express incident in 2006. Prohit has been convicted for Malegaon blasts in 2008. Pakistani foreign office failed diplomatically to pick this matter of serving Indian army officers direct link with terrorist organization.
Kashmir is another strong moral case for Pakistan and it is time for Pakistan to end its lethargy over this important issue and resurrect this case once again in international forums like UN. It has become more relevant in a nuclear overhang between Pakistan and India.
Along with these cases Pakistan must keep vigilant over developments in Mumbai case trial in Indian court. Recent developments in Mumbai case are also supportive to Pakistans cause. Now it is time Pakistan to make strong demands of concluding trial of the case. Not only this Pakistan must withstand international pressure from US and India and must support Pakistani individuals convicted wrongly by the UN as terrorist whereas in Pakistan, courts have failed to convict these individuals on the same information and evidence provided by India that were used in UN to convict these individuals.
14. Pakistan must build a strong case against India and her involvement in Pakistan particularly in supporting terrorism in Baluchistan and FATA. Pakistan army has given proofs to government and the ball is in democratic governments court to take the case to international forums like UN where Pakistan can seek Chinese help in order to unearth Indian intentions against Pakistan and peace in the region.
Recently, a serving Indian officer was convicted in Indian court for being mastermind of bombing in a Mosque in Malegaon, a village in India. This attack was first blamed on Pakistan and ISI. This case has provided a much needed opportunity to use it as a proof in diplomatic community to unleash the real face of terrorists serving in Indian army.
15. Pakistan has suffered some 40 billion dollars in war of terror against foreign funded, supported and backed 4thGW. Now it is up to government to make this fact realized and present to all the stakeholders in this war.
Propaganda Warfare
16. Strong media management is a fundamental requirement of 4th generation warfare. In recent years Pakistan generally and Pakistan army particularly are targets of Indian and Western media outlets to portray both as weak and non serious in combating insurgency and terror. Leading papers, websites, magazines in US and Western media are leaking stories to defame Pakistani military leadership and its commitment to its war against foreign funded terror despite the fact that Pakistan army is the only force in the world that has lost its serving Generals in this war.
All these stories are part of the bigger propaganda operation to demoralize forces and leadership by overlooking sacrifices made by Pakistan army but this is one side of all this in reality this is lack of a strong media team on the part of Pakistan.
As mentioned in Diplomatic response section that recent revelations about involvement of Indian armys serving officers in terrorism must be exposed forcefully in media. It is high time for Pakistani government to review its media policy with respect to 4th generation warfare. Pakistan still does not have a media policy which defines the roles, parameters, objectives, aims and goals of Pakistans media in support of ground operations or to counter the hostile Psy-ops. The terrorists still get air time on prime time media and army is still ridiculed and attacked both by politicians and media analysts for fighting an American war and killing own people!. India is still not blamed for supporting insurgencies in Pakistani territory.
17. Pakistani government must make sure that any media exchange agreement between Pakistan and India take place on reciprocal basis. Indian channels are being allowed in Pakistan uninterruptedly but Pakistani channels are facing a strict ban in most parts of the India. In order to stop media invasion it is very necessary to expand footprint of Pakistani media in Indian territories.
The classic disinformation war by western media!
Above: One of many info graphics created to alarm world about TTP taking over Pakistan. In the map above, one can see areas like Chitral, Shangla, Kohistan and D.I Khan never remained under Taliban control. Unfortunately, due to absence of a clear media policy Pakistani media failed to counter propaganda warfare by Western media.
Conclusion
As 4GW comprises of multiple axis and asymmetrical warfare so its solution can not come from one national institute. As 4GW is evolving phenomenon so its solution must be out of box as well depending upon multiple factors, both conventional as well as non-conventional. Pakistan is at a critical crossroads in fighting 4GW terrorists. Although military operations have shown very encouraging results so far in Swat and FATA but it must be understood by the civilian government that to convert these military gains into permanent peace some desperate measures are imperative in areas hit by insurgency and counter- insurgency operations.
For the last 5 years Pakistani nation and state both have suffered due to weak and fragile foreign policy adopted by Musharraf regime and pursued by current government. This foreign policy of Pakistan has only served the interests of foreign powers or hostile nations like India who exploited internal conflicts of Pakistan at international level to defame Pakistan. A major overhaul in foreign policy is more than necessary to bring an end to ongoing master slave relationships between Pakistan and comity of nations. It is high time for Pakistan to draw some very visible red lines which Pakistani state and nation will never cross while fighting terrorism as US ally in the region.
Afghan policy need to be overhauled. From being a passive player, Pakistan now needs to be an aggressive and pro-active policy maker in Afghanistan. The crisis in Pakistan enters from Afghanistan. It is absolutely critical that Pakistan controls the internal as well as security dynamics in that country. Indians have exploited the environment long enough. Its time to nail Indian interests and assets in Afghanistan to end the military axis of 4GW against Pakistan. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.
Internal conflicts always have some root causes as well and Pakistan is not an exception in this regard. It is a proven fact that unchecked foreign funding of some religious schools (Madrasas) in the past throughout the country, ever increasing poverty, ethnic intolerance, corruption etc. are some massive challenges the country is facing right now. Most worrying aspect of all these challenges is that all the related social and economical indicators are not showing any improvement. Unless the government takes some concrete steps in order to overcome socio-economic challenges in backward parts of the country, the threat of resurrection of similar insurgencies will keep prevailing as poor socio-economics always made it easier for enemies to manipulate local masses for their own interests.
Pakistan todays face two most critical cancers which are feeding the 4th GW against the State.
Corruption
Judicial collapse to put fear of God into the hearts of terrorists.
The system and the government have failed to address these two issues. The corruption feeds the bad governance, hopelessness, state failures and social disintegration. Lack of justice breeds terrorism, violence and social anarchy. If the present system cannot deliver, perhaps the right choice would be to change and replace the system before a complete and total victory against the 4thGW can be assured. A political, judicial and economic system is required where corruption and terrorism are met with zero tolerance, even if that means adopting desperate and harshest means. If it takes that much to clean the mess, then let it be. (END)
Reference: Building Responses to 4GWs (4th Generation Warfare)
The weak and the defenseless in this world invite aggression from others. The best way we can serve peace is by removing the temptation from the path of those who think we are weak and, for that reason, they can bully or attack us. That temptation can only be removed if we make ourselves so strong that nobody dare entertain any aggressive designs against us. (Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, 1948)
Keeping above statement of founding father in view, Pakistan kept on building its defenses for decades. After 1971, these preparations got a renewed momentum. New defense industry was established to acquire self-reliance in defense but all these preparations proved inadequate in recent war against terrorism.
The more security forces advancing into militant strongholds in FATA the more Pakistani urban centers are becoming victims of terrorism. Recent violence in Karachi and Lahore is biggest example. Though overall security situation is improving but there is no logical end in sight of this complex war against terror in Pakistan.
At beginning it was believed that this is just an insurgency stemmed as a renegade against state policy of allying with US in GWOT (Global War on Terror) but with passage of time it became clear that it is not just armed insurgencies that are undermining Pakistans national security but a direct foreign meddling is a bigger bone of contention, in almost all state affairs ranging from media to education, economics to foreign policy.
From a larger perspective Pakistan is facing biggest challenges and threats from within from different terrorist outfits and insurgencies for different reasons but at minute level all these challenges are interconnected and through recent revelations during military operations in FATA and Swat it has become evident that almost all the major security challenges the state is facing today on various fronts are strongly bonded with each other tightly and elements involved in every challenge can merely be traced connected with each other and this is the fundamental feature of something known as Fourth Generation Warfare or 4GWs.
Intro to 4GWs (4th Generation warfare)
Like said above heterogeneous and distributed nature of current complex geo-strategic security challenges Pakistan is facing are a proposition of 4th generation warfare waged by various hostile and allies in pursuit of their own greater gains in the region. Before discussing these greater gains of various regional and international players it would be prudent to inspect what 4th generation is all about?
In simplistic terms, 4th generation warfare is a moral and physiological conflict among many countries or communities using distributed, non-state and violent elements from within enemy state. Creating mistrust among enemy communities and propagating uncertainty among enemy nations are other goals of any 4th generation endeavor. By gaining higher moral ground any state can get all the political help and sympathy in an actual conflict. 4th generation warfare is very different from an actual armed conflict as its entirely based on asymmetrical warfare and tactics and the major front is physiological not physical as in a real conflict. Putting in altogether it can be said that national cohesion becomes a primary target of such warfare model. Importance of destroying national unity and creating mistrust becomes more relevant when enemy is an ideological state like Pakistan.
At tactical level various tactics and elements are employed to get these goals like rare area operations means supporting armed insurgencies and terrorism on the one hand and centrifugal forces in enemys political system, media and civil society on the other. The latter group of elements highlights (Subjectively analyses) the actions of former (terrorism) in order to launch Psychological operations against enemy nation to demoralize the enemy society. Economic manipulation, whenever possible, can serve as an extra tool in this kind of warfare. Recently Globalization has been used as a tool to manipulate the market accesses by more industrialized nations that can potentially undermine economic interests of developing nations. Fragile economic conditions in enemy state have always been proved conducive in 4th generation warfare as it makes it much easier to manipulate allegiance of masses with national fervor.
Tracing 4GW in Pakistan
Pakistan is facing covert security challenges from multiple hostile entities these includes states, groups, powerful lobbies, media outlets etc. Traditionally Pakistans overt and covert defense has remained India centric. As geographically India is located in East of Pakistan so mainly focus also remained in Punjab and Sindh, the two provinces bordering India. Due to this fact it proved easier for many criminal groups to stay out of radar for a long period of time while operating in Pakistans Northern Province. India got opportunity to put his feet in Afghanistan and launch rare area operations against Pakistan from there. India after entering into Afghanistan started work on recruit and train ad-hoc warriors into Pakistan to fight an Indian proxy war against Pakistani state and military.
Players
In order to trace 4GW tactics and elements in Pakistan and their foreign supporters studying ongoing counter insurgency operations, violent non-state actors (VNSAs) involved in these insurgencies, foreign support these elements are getting and political developments in the country are very important.
Main actors of 4GW against Pakistan are paid insurgent groups in northwestern parts and in Baluchistan. These paid insurgents have been joined by the local extremists and separatist elements from these areas. Recent revelations have proved it beyond doubt that these terrorist groups are receiving financial and tactical help from Indian consulates on Afghan soil despite presence of US in Afghanistan to whom Pakistan is a major non NATO ally since last 9 years. This is where US involvement in ongoing 4th generation offensive becomes disturbing and malicious.
Till very recently it was believed that US was just turning a blind eye to Indian activities in Afghanistan against Pakistan but now it has become clear that US covert offensive against Pakistan is much more heinous than envisaged earlier. Elements in US military, intelligence setup and White House has bought the idea that actual cause for Afghan resistance is Pakistan so first it must be fixed. A whole new doctrine for Pakistan was devised under the name of ****** declaring Pakistan a battle field along with Afghanistan.
Actually this absurd theory was originally sold to US administration during Bush era by Indian lobby in Washington. Indians also pushed the idea to know how to handle Pakistan better. Though earlier US allowed India to play a greater role in Afghanistan. But Indians had their own plans in Afghanistan about Pakistan. Pakistan did protest to US on allowing India a freehand but it seems that Indian lobby in Washington was too strong to undo US reliance on India on ******. Both India and US have their own targets in the region and both are using their tactics accordingly on all axis. If Indian sponsored insurgents are active in FATA, US sponsored elements are sitting right in the higher echelons of government. For US it is far easier to maneuver Pakistans political landscape.
Tactics
Pakistan is confronting two pronged 4th generation attacks both from India and US. Both countries have issues with Pakistans foreign policy. For India, Pakistans stance on Kashmir is something needs to be changed in foreign policy. For US, Pakistan must oblige to US foreign policy strategic objective where India has a greater role in the region to counterweight China.
Over lapping and commonality in foreign policy interests, with regard to Pakistan, of both countries is unprecedented. This is major driver behind combined efforts to fix Pakistan. The only difference between both countries approaches is tactics being employed against Pakistan. Indian tactics revolves around declaring Pakistan as a non functional and terrorist state through supporting TTP from Afghanistan and more recently through manipulating agriculture in Pakistan by blocking water flows in Pakistani rivers.
Above: TTP is prime 4th generation warfare force engaging Pakistani state and military inside Pakistani border.
Fourth generation warfare revolves around the idea of creating a complete political paralysis in enemy state or in area of operation. Atrocities committed by the TTP in FATA and Swat are a clear proof of this fact. First target of TTP in both areas was political figures of the area and this awful practice created an environment of fear and hopelessness among local masses. Absence of political leadership created an atmosphere of lawlessness and chaos giving TTP free hand to recruit, train and arm locals against state by imposing its own ideology and political views on people due to fear. Recent disclosure has made it clear that TTP is biggest ad-hoc warrior group in Pakistan serving its foreign sponsors as well as carrying out its local agenda and self-styled Islamic ideology.
US covert activities in Pakistan have surfaced in media recently clearly indicating that Pakistan and US are bound together through compulsion of circumstances. In reality certain US citizens dont even bother to follow regulations implemented under Pakistani laws. Not only this, same US nationals have threaten Pakistani citizen more than once. Though very disturbing for Pakistani masses but these events look smaller if one looks at what powerful lobbies in US administration are trying to do in Pakistan on other axis of this war.
AXIS OF WAR
Pakistan is facing attacks of 4th generation warfare ad-hoc warriors supported directly by Indian RAW and indirectly by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan and local Pakistani elements. These ad-hoc warriors are just one dimension of this complex armed duel between state and these non-state actors. Other dimensions include propaganda waged against Pakistan and its nuclear program in particular, economic manipulation by US in war on terror to pressurize Pakistan and by India through its water policy in Kashmir.
Geostrategic / Military Axis
Establishing strategic hegemony in South Asia is primeval Indian dream. Pakistan is not only a major military rival of India but is major obstacle in fulfilling this dream. To remove this obstacle Indian establishment is working since independence. India got major break through in her policy in 1971 with secession of East Pakistan. India played primary role in this secession. Further dismemberment of remaining Pakistan into smaller states on ethnic lines is something India is trying to do since decades.
After 9/11 in form of USA, India found a natural ally in pursuing this sinister agenda against Pakistan. With US complicity India launched high intensity proxy war against Pakistani state in northwestern areas and FATA from Afghanistan. Indian consulates in all major towns along Pakistani border in Afghanistan are funding and supporting this insurgency since 2005. India wants to accomplish multiple strategic goals through this insurgency;
1. To bring Pakistan to its knees by declaring Pakistan as a failed state.
2. Building a case against Pakistan being a failed state with nuclear arms which can fell into wrong hands.
3. Once declared a failed state Pakistan will be denuclearized by international community under various global agreements.
To get Pakistan denuclearized is first step of bigger strategic Indian plan. Next Phase is to invade Pakistan physically which is not possible under a nuclear hangover right now. Denuclearization of Pakistan is a common agenda between American and Indian foreign polices for Pakistan. This is the reason why strong lobbies in US state and defense departments bought Indian plan on Pakistan to denuclearize Pakistan after declaring it failed state unable to protect its nuclear arsenal.
Above: Large cache of Indian ammunition has been recovered during Pakistan military operations in FATA and Swat further proving Indian 4GW.
Recent military operations by Pakistan army in FATA and Swat have thwarted first phase of this Indian game plan for now. But Due to lack of governance and administrative measures in insurgency hit areas the threat of resurrection of this insurgency is far from over.
After sensing losing massive investment on its 4GW warriors in Pakistan India launched massive diplomatic offensive to declare Pakistan army and intelligence agencies as terrorist organizations in UNO after 26/11 incident. Interestingly legal proceedings and investigations of this incident is still continues but Indian government was very eager to get ISI involved into this act.
Under the pretext of 26/11, Indian top military brass has made its intentions clear about peace and security in the region. Indian officials time and again said India is ready to launch a full scale intense but small war on Pakistan another Mumbai style attack happened. This stance by Indian leadership is itself a threatening development for regional peace. Indian announcements of execution of Cold Start strategy are a grave concern for Pakistans security.
Giving statements like these is one aspect of Indian strategy while on the other hand Indians are smartly playing as messenger of peace in the world while putting blame on Pakistan for every terrorist activity in India. Pakistan army has recovered Indian weapons and ammunition but Islamabad failed to build a case against its arch rival for supporting insurgencies and terrorism in Pakistan.
Geopolitical Axis
Indian foreign policy and diplomacy is another indicator that India is now aggressively working on isolating Pakistan in international community on the pretext of being unable to apprehend the terrorists involved in Mumbai terrorists attacks. So far Indian efforts have been pretty successful thanks to defensive and apologetic Pakistani stance right from the beginning.
First the Indians brought the matter to UN without completing investigations and its own legal proceedings about Mumbai attacks now in the second phase Indian foreign office is approaching capitals in the region where Pakistani lobby has been considered stronger traditionally. Recent visit of Indian premier to Saudi Arabia is one such example where matter of terrorism from Pakistani soil was also taken up by India. The reaction of concerned departments of Saudi Arabia must be a quick reminder to Pakistani foreign office that Indian efforts are very advance to isolate Pakistan internationally.
Pakistani stance in UN on the Indian dossier was very fragile and caused great deal of embarrassment to the nation and helped the Indian cause to portray Pakistan as hub of terrorists. Even the retired military officials were nominated in the resolution to be declared as terrorists.
An isolated and morally weak Pakistan will be much easier to attack or fight in an actual conflict. Recent Shift in Indian military doctrine is a clear indicator of that as well.
To defame Pakistan, Indians have internationalized Mumbai attack but never accepted Pakistani assistance in investigations. The case of Samjotha Express has been buried under the dust of time as it implicated Indian religious fundamentalists in terror but Mumbai remained open just to defame Pakistan.
US covert operations against Iran from Afghanistan also played main role in destabilizing Pak-Iran relations. CIA formed Jundullah to launch low scale insurgency in Iranian Baluchistan (Sistan- Baluchistan). This insurgent group with help and on directions from CIA carried out multiple suicide attacks in Iranian Eastern province bordering Pakistan. As a result not only relationship between two brotherly countries turned sour but sectarian violence also erupted in Pakistan.
Geo-economic Axis
India is trying to manipulate Pakistans economy through its water aggression against Pakistan. Natural landscape and geography of subcontinent has provided India with an opportunity to India to openly work for blocking Pakistans water from Indus Basin Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus) which were allocated to Pakistan in IWT 1960. Pakistani concerned authorities already have assessed that by 2014 India can stop water to Pakistani fertile land for a considerably long period of time to prevent sowing crops in time.
The so-called peace initiatives between the two countries till this date have failed to address Pakistanis on this sensitive but important issue while India kept on building dams in Kashmir on Pakistani rivers to bring Pakistan on its knees by destroying its agriculture.
Above: A map showing various dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir. India is building these dams without any prior discussion with Pakistan which is a clear violation of IWT 1960.
Media / Psychological Axis
In international media Pakistan is being represented as the most dangerous place for world peace as it is a state too vulnerable to protect its nuclear arsenal which can fall into wrong hands. Despite the assurances from all levels from Pakistan, the propaganda against Pakistans nuclear weapons and their safety kept on intensifying during last two years.
The recent development in media offensive against Pakistan is more disturbing as it has entered into media manipulation phase by buying elements in all the notable media outlets of Pakistan. According to reports some 50 million dollars have been allocated to be spending in Pakistani media by US administration in order to get a soft corner for US policies in the region. This is disturbing development for Pakistani media and masses as this will hijack the Pakistani media to portray events as per wishes of US.
Recently, Kerry Lugar bill faced severe criticism from every institute of Pakistan and among these institutes the most vocal was Pakistani media particularly Urdu media both print and electronic.
Though some elements in Pakistani media have remained critics of US policies in this country and in this region but never in 63 years of its history Pakistani media ever preached anti-American sentiments something to be eliminated or reduced from Pakistani media through this allocation of $50 million.
It seems to be a PR building campaign in Pakistan by US administration but it is evident after Kerry Lugar bill that US wants to shun any kind of criticism in Pakistani media on US policies as the official reason given for this allocation is very different from ground realities. Officially this money is to highlight development projects by US in Pakistan to build trust but interestingly no such project has been initiated yet so a logical question here is how US administration deems to highlight its cooperation with Pakistani masses without any actual cooperation on ground?
The timing of recent media allocation has raised many eyebrows in circles of critics of US policies. They feel the money will be used to expand the US footprint in Pakistani media to expand its psy-ops to mold opinion of masses as per US policy makers. One such example is Voice of America, a radio and TV platform that speaks for the government of the US already has a tie-up with Geo TV and now they have aligned with Express TV (the second largest Urdu news channel after Geo) as well.
US media is not the only entity having launched media war against Pakistan, but Indian media also joined the campaign particularly against Pakistani security establishment and its role in war on terror after Mumbai attacks in 2008. Strong Indian lobby in international media has also helped the cause to wage propaganda against Pakistani military and its role in war on terror. The idea that Pakistan military is actually helping Afghan Taliban against US and NATO was sold to the world by Indian elements through various reports by anonymous sources. This idea led US policy makers to believe in that Pakistan is actually double crossing US in global war on terror resultantly Pakistan had to face more pressure from US. The real intentions of India behind misleading US policy makers were to get some concession on Kashmir and water issues while keeping the world attention away from these outstanding core issues between two nuclear armed arch rivals in subcontinent.
Proposed Responses (Solutions)
Keeping all the facets of the 4GWs, being waged against Pakistan since 8 long years, it is evident that dealing with such threat is not possible by using one state organ alone like military or civilian administration. Even a combined effort by both sometime fails to pay dividend until seeking a broad public support and a complete national cohesion on defense, foreign and internal polices.
Anti Terrorism Operations
So far Pakistani military establishment has dealt with ongoing terrorism in a rather effective way adopting quickly to the new methods of urban asymmetrical counter insurgency operations within its own borders. But this must be understood that for the army also, this was a learning curve which came at a heavy cost. Hundreds of brave and brilliant officers and men have given their lives and limbs to fight a war army was not geared to fight traditionally. Now the entire Pakistan army has seen ruthless action in the last few years and is battle hardy and trained. Operations still continue to flush out the pockets of resistance by the TTP terrorists but the war on ground is not supported by the Psy-Ops in national media nor by the political will of the government.
The national judiciary has almost collapsed in response to this threat leaving the army almost without support from the State organs. This continues to increase pressure on the army which has to deal with the political, psychological and judicial side of the war as well. In an environment of lopsided priorities and badly managed national governance, pressure on armed forces has increased many folds.
Despite the overwhelming odds, army has done remarkably to neutralize the terrorist threats from this axis of the 4GW. But much more can be done to accelerate the process of cleanup and reduce the military as well as the collateral damage.
1. Urban environment ops have to be intelligence based as theatre of operations is friendly territory infested by insurgents within the friendly local population. Human Intelligence (HINT) as well as technical intelligence (TINT) remains the fundamental elements of any such operations. Tracking of cell and Satellite phones, use of drone technology, night surveillance capabilities remain critical to these operations. These capabilities need to be enhanced radically, almost to the levels of Police state or martial law in theatres of operations, as civil and judicial systems have collapsed in those regions. Army laws and military courts that dealwith civilian combatant or insurgents fighting the State or armed forces need to be invoked for short term to put the fear of God and law in the hearts of the terrorists.
2. Ideally, regular forces should not be used combat 4GW terrorists. Reserves and paramilitary forces are best options. Pakistan must train more of its paramilitary forces for this role with indigenous tactics and plans.
3. In rural environment, local friendly militias or Lashkars to support the military and the para-military to take the lead role in securing their regions to be backed by the State forces.
4. In the urban environment, a second tier of national defense needs to be created from educated urban youth. Pakistan used to have such a service, NCC, till late 90s. The compulsory military and civil defense training to the university youth should become mandatory to support security forces in urban environment search, security and neutralizing operations.
5. Due to its complex asymmetrical nature at every level it is very necessary to study enemys technical abilities. The Indian backed TTP and the BLA extensively use cyber world and cellular technology to their advantage. Also, Pakistani TTP has used IEDs, suicide bombing as main tactic against security forces and society and explosive laden vehicles have been proved most dangerous and destructive weapons. Proper anti-cyber terrorism units need to be aggressively active to check and track terrorists in cyber and cellular world. Also, a proper Vehicle Tracking & Management System with ability to track target vehicle at any time can be very useful in reducing the risk of such attacks.
6. After getting a bloody nose in FATA and Swat now militants are attacking Pakistani cities. So far this strategy of militants has worked much more effectively to achieve their objective of physiologically destroy morale of masses than traditional attacks on security forces in remote areas of NWFP and in FATA. Though both civilian and security forces are target of terrorists but in big cities like Lahore and Karachi it is civilians who have suffered more. In order to secure the cities it is imperative to enhance the technical intelligence as per needs of 21st century. Keeping every street in a city like Karachi or Lahore in sight all the time is a cumbersome job for any law enforcer regardless of how well trained its personnel are. It is time to incorporate emerging military technologies in urban centers for gathering information and to keep an eye in a particular area on high risk targets. Pakistan is making surveillance drones for many years now and has also exported these planes to foreign customers as well. It is time to adopt this surveillance technology in the cities to get real time intelligence on suspected entities in a particular city. Drones are much cheaper alternative to an expensive and more complex satellite based surveillance.
ABOVE: Arial View of Gulberg area, Lahore, where attack on Sri Lankan cricket team took place in 2009. It must be noted that with this congested road and street (Yellow lines in picture) network it is impossible to trace terrorists once they fled from crime scene. With Drones this deficiency in real time tactical surveillance can be overcome.
7. Another area of technical enhancement in COIN
operation is to enhance the ability to track enemys
hideouts. Traditional methods of implanting
someone in enemy ranks or buying out enemy assets
has not proved hundred percent foolproof as it is
very difficult to differentiate friends from foe in this
covert war. It is time for Pakistani security forces to
start concentrating on applications of implantable
GPS trackers to get exact location of a particular hostile entity.
Right: A human implantable GPS tracker.
8. Inter agency protocols for sharing sensitive information among various law enforcement bodies in the country has been traditionally a weak link in investigations. It is time to adopt new cutting edge technologies to build repositories with multiple access level to enhance cooperation among various law enforcement agencies and to enable these law enforcers to carry out real time investigations.
9. Absence of modern forensic labs is another hurdle in investigations. Pakistan must work to build state of the art forensic facility in the country as Pakistan and it must be equipped with all necessary technical facilities in this regard.
Governance & Administrative Measures
10. To win the ultimate 4th generation war it is imperative to eliminate all the root causes and supporting environment to ensure that enemy has no moral ground to maneuver its tactics hence denying a moral victory to enemy which is ultimate goal of 4th generation warfare. During last 8 years, Pakistani leadership took some steps to gain higher moral ground.
Recent example of such a move was peace deal in Swat before a comprehensive military operation against terrorists. Pakistan army and government got a high moral ground by signing that deal. TTP was exposed in the end to the masses along with all its atrocities in the name if Islam. But there were some severe mistakes where army lost its moral edge to terrorists. The drop scene of Lal Masjid operation in July 2007 was a major blow to Pakistan army in its anti-terrorism efforts and it provided an opportunity to hostile agencies to wage propaganda ops against Pakistan army by getting sympathies of local masses and families of victims of this operation despite the fact most of the students in Lal Masjid got killed due to being used as human shield by the terrorists. Lal masjid was a classic operation where bad and poorest perception and media management created a security crisis for the State and the armed forces later on.
Counter insurgency in 4th generation warfare is the most complex task at hand. Every operation has different tactical planning and execution requirements but Pakistan army and other forces must evaluate post operation circumstances particularly collateral damage with respect to ultimate strategic goal of 4th generation warfare i.e. winning a moral battle in every operation denying any opportunity to hostile elements to launch psy-ops against Pakistani state or army.
11. Operation Rah-i-Rast in Swat also a reminder of what can happen if a region is deprived of speedy justice for a long period of time. It has remain a dilemma in Pakistan that legal procedure in lower courts is haplessly non-existent denying the very justice for which the State exists. This has developed a reactionary approach in mass behavior in Pakistani society.
Like Justice, development is also an integral part of a peaceful society. It is responsibility of civilian government to raise the infrastructure of insurgency affected areas so that people can restart social and economic activities in these areas. Cooperation of international donors and NGOs may be engaged on own terms in these rehabilitation efforts. The sooner these areas return to normalcy the better it would be for overall law and order throughout the country. Along with infrastructure development government must also take steps to revive lost businesses and jobs of the locals.
12. Education sector reforms are need of the hour. Absence of uniform educational structure throughout the country has produced various kinds of social and religious dogmas in the society resultantly making national fabric more fragile instead of creating any national harmony which is a fundamental pillar of national stability and security. In recent insurgencies it has become evident that a loose government control over various religious and private educational systems in Pakistan has created a sense of deprivation in one faction and superiority complex in another and this vast gulf between these mindsets was successfully manipulated by the terrorist indoctrinators in the name of religion.
So it is imperative that government take all necessary steps to make education in Pakistan uniform for every faction of society. A strong over sight of religious schools is another area of urgent attention of government. It is time for government to present a model of educational institutes with a uniform general education standard throughout country to provide equal opportunities for all the students in practical life.
Diplomatic Response
From recent developments in the region on terrorism it is evident that a case against Pakistan is being prepared as a next staging area for any big terror attack anywhere in the world particularly in India or US. This idea of blaming Pakistan for being used by terrorists to recruit, train and send terrorists and to plan an attack on US or Indian soil came from aggressive Indian diplomatic offenses in major capitals of the world. The supporting factor was Pakistans old defensive foreign policy. It is time for Pakistan to present a strong case at world forums regarding its efforts in combating terrorism and sufferings Pakistani nation has faced during this bloody war. Pakistans foreign policy needs a major overhaul in this regard. Pakistan must also reject Do More.
13. Pakistan must keep Samjootha express case and Indian atrocities on Kashmiris alive in international community and media alike. Strong demand for inquiry into massacre of 59 innocent Pakistanis in Samjootha Express incident must be made and must be convened to all the capitals through Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan must not abandon its slain citizens killed by cold blooded Indian fanatics.
Above : Lt Col Prasad Srikant Purohit an active member of Abhinav Bharat, a Hindu outfit and mastermind of Samjhoota Express incident in 2006. Prohit has been convicted for Malegaon blasts in 2008. Pakistani foreign office failed diplomatically to pick this matter of serving Indian army officers direct link with terrorist organization.
Kashmir is another strong moral case for Pakistan and it is time for Pakistan to end its lethargy over this important issue and resurrect this case once again in international forums like UN. It has become more relevant in a nuclear overhang between Pakistan and India.
Along with these cases Pakistan must keep vigilant over developments in Mumbai case trial in Indian court. Recent developments in Mumbai case are also supportive to Pakistans cause. Now it is time Pakistan to make strong demands of concluding trial of the case. Not only this Pakistan must withstand international pressure from US and India and must support Pakistani individuals convicted wrongly by the UN as terrorist whereas in Pakistan, courts have failed to convict these individuals on the same information and evidence provided by India that were used in UN to convict these individuals.
14. Pakistan must build a strong case against India and her involvement in Pakistan particularly in supporting terrorism in Baluchistan and FATA. Pakistan army has given proofs to government and the ball is in democratic governments court to take the case to international forums like UN where Pakistan can seek Chinese help in order to unearth Indian intentions against Pakistan and peace in the region.
Recently, a serving Indian officer was convicted in Indian court for being mastermind of bombing in a Mosque in Malegaon, a village in India. This attack was first blamed on Pakistan and ISI. This case has provided a much needed opportunity to use it as a proof in diplomatic community to unleash the real face of terrorists serving in Indian army.
15. Pakistan has suffered some 40 billion dollars in war of terror against foreign funded, supported and backed 4thGW. Now it is up to government to make this fact realized and present to all the stakeholders in this war.
Propaganda Warfare
16. Strong media management is a fundamental requirement of 4th generation warfare. In recent years Pakistan generally and Pakistan army particularly are targets of Indian and Western media outlets to portray both as weak and non serious in combating insurgency and terror. Leading papers, websites, magazines in US and Western media are leaking stories to defame Pakistani military leadership and its commitment to its war against foreign funded terror despite the fact that Pakistan army is the only force in the world that has lost its serving Generals in this war.
All these stories are part of the bigger propaganda operation to demoralize forces and leadership by overlooking sacrifices made by Pakistan army but this is one side of all this in reality this is lack of a strong media team on the part of Pakistan.
As mentioned in Diplomatic response section that recent revelations about involvement of Indian armys serving officers in terrorism must be exposed forcefully in media. It is high time for Pakistani government to review its media policy with respect to 4th generation warfare. Pakistan still does not have a media policy which defines the roles, parameters, objectives, aims and goals of Pakistans media in support of ground operations or to counter the hostile Psy-ops. The terrorists still get air time on prime time media and army is still ridiculed and attacked both by politicians and media analysts for fighting an American war and killing own people!. India is still not blamed for supporting insurgencies in Pakistani territory.
17. Pakistani government must make sure that any media exchange agreement between Pakistan and India take place on reciprocal basis. Indian channels are being allowed in Pakistan uninterruptedly but Pakistani channels are facing a strict ban in most parts of the India. In order to stop media invasion it is very necessary to expand footprint of Pakistani media in Indian territories.
The classic disinformation war by western media!
Above: One of many info graphics created to alarm world about TTP taking over Pakistan. In the map above, one can see areas like Chitral, Shangla, Kohistan and D.I Khan never remained under Taliban control. Unfortunately, due to absence of a clear media policy Pakistani media failed to counter propaganda warfare by Western media.
Conclusion
As 4GW comprises of multiple axis and asymmetrical warfare so its solution can not come from one national institute. As 4GW is evolving phenomenon so its solution must be out of box as well depending upon multiple factors, both conventional as well as non-conventional. Pakistan is at a critical crossroads in fighting 4GW terrorists. Although military operations have shown very encouraging results so far in Swat and FATA but it must be understood by the civilian government that to convert these military gains into permanent peace some desperate measures are imperative in areas hit by insurgency and counter- insurgency operations.
For the last 5 years Pakistani nation and state both have suffered due to weak and fragile foreign policy adopted by Musharraf regime and pursued by current government. This foreign policy of Pakistan has only served the interests of foreign powers or hostile nations like India who exploited internal conflicts of Pakistan at international level to defame Pakistan. A major overhaul in foreign policy is more than necessary to bring an end to ongoing master slave relationships between Pakistan and comity of nations. It is high time for Pakistan to draw some very visible red lines which Pakistani state and nation will never cross while fighting terrorism as US ally in the region.
Afghan policy need to be overhauled. From being a passive player, Pakistan now needs to be an aggressive and pro-active policy maker in Afghanistan. The crisis in Pakistan enters from Afghanistan. It is absolutely critical that Pakistan controls the internal as well as security dynamics in that country. Indians have exploited the environment long enough. Its time to nail Indian interests and assets in Afghanistan to end the military axis of 4GW against Pakistan. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.
Internal conflicts always have some root causes as well and Pakistan is not an exception in this regard. It is a proven fact that unchecked foreign funding of some religious schools (Madrasas) in the past throughout the country, ever increasing poverty, ethnic intolerance, corruption etc. are some massive challenges the country is facing right now. Most worrying aspect of all these challenges is that all the related social and economical indicators are not showing any improvement. Unless the government takes some concrete steps in order to overcome socio-economic challenges in backward parts of the country, the threat of resurrection of similar insurgencies will keep prevailing as poor socio-economics always made it easier for enemies to manipulate local masses for their own interests.
Pakistan todays face two most critical cancers which are feeding the 4th GW against the State.
Corruption
Judicial collapse to put fear of God into the hearts of terrorists.
The system and the government have failed to address these two issues. The corruption feeds the bad governance, hopelessness, state failures and social disintegration. Lack of justice breeds terrorism, violence and social anarchy. If the present system cannot deliver, perhaps the right choice would be to change and replace the system before a complete and total victory against the 4thGW can be assured. A political, judicial and economic system is required where corruption and terrorism are met with zero tolerance, even if that means adopting desperate and harshest means. If it takes that much to clean the mess, then let it be. (END)
Reference: Building Responses to 4GWs (4th Generation Warfare)
