@mike2000 is back
Russia offers no threat to UK, France,Germany, Spain, Italy etc. Moscow's rattling is that of a dying empire. Although USSR vanished in 1991 but the effects still rush through the arteries of the Russian state. Putin is a relic from the Soviet times.
Can we agree that military power is premised on a countries economy - indeed there is correlation between economy and military power. A country may not decide to fully utilize harness it's economy for military use but the potenctial is contingent on the economy.
Russian economy is about the same size as Italy. That alone shows that Russia is a bear without any teath. Yes, it can certainly slash when annoyed but it's ability to sustain any military venture is now limited to it's borderlands. Ukraine is without a doubt in Russia's backyard and the fact that Russia has been reduced to a position where even there they are on the back feet say's a lot about Russian power.
Just to put this in perspective this would be like Russians supporting a group in a independant Scotland in defiance of UK's percieved interests or supporting Mexico in it's hostile posture toward USA. I cannot even countenance that and if it did happen I suspect a far stronger reaction would follow then what the Russian's with their so called strong man Putin has dispayed.
This whole Russian thing is just a ruse to that speeds up integration of ex Soviet client states in Eastern Europe. It also gives them a chance to exaggerate the Russian threat and kitty up to NATO so as to feel all snug and everything. Notice last year's US armoured convoy which drove through Poland upto Latvia was just a token force more for reassuring than anything else. The notion that Russia which is having difficulty even securing parts of Pro Russian Ukraine within it's orbit is somehow going to resort to Cold War style all out armoured invasion of Eastern Europe including Poland or Latvia is laughable.
However under the talk of this threat extra resources and political focus can be extended to get all of Eastern Europe right upto Russia's nose tied into and within the NATO/EC umbrella.
US armored troops drive through eastern Europe to reassure allies in face of Ukraine conflict | Fox News
US Army 'to send tanks to eastern Europe' as tensions rise among Nato members | Daily Mail Online
U.S. armoured troops drive through eastern Europe to reassure allies | Globalnews.ca
Now moving on to the Chinese. The fact is the entire architecture built up in Europe since 1945 all the way to present and into the future is underpinned by USA. If you notice the Muslim world is mass of disunited, warring, rivalries. Well that is exactly what Europe resembled prior to 1945 and we saw what war after war did. US with it's absolute power provided the prefect that under it's baton and economic clout a united Europe was constructed. NATO is product of that US role. Even today the mess to the NATO frame is provided by USA.
Back in 1993 we saw what European inability to take decisive action did with the Serbian massacre of Bosnian Muslims. While this went on Europe prevaricated. IT took US to move in and secure the situation thereby exposing the ever present need for the prefect even in the latter part of the XX century.
Which brings me today. The European overtures to China are just part of wider bad cop good cop routine. Europe is playing the good cop of the duo team ( otherwise carrying the nomencalture Western World ) with US showing the fangs to Chinese.
Whatever policy the West settles on China rest assured Europe will be party to as it will listen to the music from Washington. To think that Europe is going entertain a separate policy toward Chinese is ridicalous and ignore NATO. I don't think anybody really entertains the thought that Chinese paratroopers are going to land one day in rainy Swindon one day. What will happen is as the Chinese requirement for resources and markets increases they will need to secure them.
After all why does US have carrier fleets floating in every pond in the world. They are hardly their to see of sticky Somali pirates or provide sea reasue service to the Third World. Those fleets are their to project US power in aid of it's percieved economic interests. So that raises the quesation if ( will look at that in a minute ) Chinese economic power reaches anywhere like US and China ends up a superpower with interests everywhere it will be natural to expect the Chinese navy to also have carrier fleets floating about everywhere.
Now lets look at the economic side to this story because that is what the real driver is - the economy. The Chinese are on about $10 trillion and Yanks on about $17 trillionand add $ Greeces every year.
China adds 4 greeces to GDP
If you look at the chart below soon China will overtake US in GDP so in decade or so could easily service a navy that has presence everywhere. Now picture 2025. The Chinese decide they they are going to have their Meditearnean Fleet and it's going to be based in Benghazi or Tripoli in Libya or maybe in Algiers in Algeria to secure their oil and gas investments in North Africa. Maybe they might decide to secure their investment in phosphate industry in Morroco and set up a masive sea/land/air facility in Tangier which is only 10 miles from Gibralter.
List of GDP - Note Russia is way below near Italy and only marginally above Greece.
List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I wonder how that would be taken in France or Italy as these bases would be within 100 miles of these countries. Suddenly the French would be pulling on their old connections with the hated Muslims of North Africa to prevent such a scenario developing. The same applies to Chinese move on other Middle Eastern countries like Saudia. That is why despite the ordinary runts in Europe moaning and bitching about the so called Muslim invasion no jack shite. The real threat is from China. Whats more the powers that be know this that is why all of sudden US is moving real close with India.
A new great game is about to start. Like I said before there can only be one kid on the block. Europe is involved in this because to regard Europe as a entity separate from USA is to ignore the last 60 years of the world order built under US supervision wherein NATO is just one part in this jig saw.
The grab for world resources is a old human story. Think of the great game between Czarist Russia and British Empire. Think of French British race for colonies until the entente cordiale. After the demise of the British empire the US quickly filled the space. Now China is on the move. Read below the race for Africa part 2. Africa don't forget is only 10 miles at straits of Gibralter.
China's economic invasion of Africa | World news | The Guardian
BBC NEWS | Africa | China's long march to Africa
How China's taking over Africa, and why the West should be VERY worried | Daily Mail Online
With all this investment expect Chine military to follow on at some stage. Have a look at the Chinese economy and then decide whether they could furnish the military might to set up bases in Africa like US has done everywhere.
I did not go into Asia because the Chinese are well on the way to spreading their wings in Asia. In Pakistan alone the Chinese anounced and agreed on the CPEC which involves investment of over $50 billion which is more than all the US aid to Pakistan in the lasy 30 years. The CPEC is about linking road and rail connection from Pakistan Arabian sea ports with western Chinese Sinkiang province through what would be modern silk road.
China Readies $46 Billion for Pakistan Trade Route - WSJ
So if this plays out expect by 2030s British squadies being posted to sunny Medititeranean to secure Europes littoral region. Still the weather will beat the socks of cold damp Germany .....
Edit: I noticed there has been surge of Eritreans/Djibotians/Kenyans in UK. Now Eritrea is no Norway but it is not the poorest place in Africa. It then struck me that Eritrea/Djibouti are absolutely strategic gems because they set astride the Red Sea chicken neck through which flows half of the worlds oil. So some clever sod in Home Office is busy letting Eritreans in to build connections which in two decades might be vital to screw the Chinese.
Then on further search I found out the French alreadsy have base in Djibouti and the US has followed and now the
Chinese are also of heading therewith a
military base. It's like to quote Spike Lee they all got "jungle fever".
http://www.nytimes.com/cfr/world/slot2_20070209.html?_r=0
US military steps up operations in the Horn of Africa - BBC News
China looks to join US, France with military base in Djibouti - Africa - Stripes
