darkinsky
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Brace yourself Karachi, Taliban are coming: Flanking maneuver of Karachi underway.
Taliban have surrounded the outer ring of Karachi, through a skilled warfare technique called the Flanking maneuver. Now, they can control the pressure points of the whole city waiting for the right time to fully grip the giant at its throat.
Recently on the 14th of February 2014, The Wall Street Journal; a highly reputed American English international daily newspaper, published an article with the title "Taliban Take Toll on Pakistan's Biggest City".
In this shocking article it was evidently reported that Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, has started to fall in the hands of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan aka. TTP with 33 of Karachi's 178 UCs totally under their control and while the number is growing rapidly; they also presented a geographical map drawn with the help of institutions like CID and CPLC which highlights the areas under TTP control.
Looking closely at the map, with the basic understanding of political dimensions of Karachi, you might not be allowed think contrary to it, whilst finding out that the areas which are said to be now strongholds of TTP are on the outer ring of Karachi, such that they have Karachi surrounded form all sides. These are the ideal locations for TTP to start existing as they are Pushtun dominated areas where they can easily mingle in the local populations and also because that these are less developed country sides of Karachi, the two most important benefits any guerrilla group should have to establish its base as said by the master of Guerilla Warfare Che Guevara in his book Guerilla Warfare as published in 1961.
So, what is flanking maneuver?
A flanking maneuver, aka "pinch" or flank attack, is an attack on the sides (or rear) of an enemy force, with the ultimate goal being to surround the enemy from two or more directions, cutting off their supply lines and their most likely path of retreat.
If a flanking maneuver succeeds, the opposing force would be surrounded from two or more directions, which significantly reduces the maneuverability of the outflanked force and its ability to defend itself. A psychological advantage may also be presented, as the confusion and threat from multiple directions is often problematic for morale. To quote a few examples of this technique being used during warfare are the following:
Israel-Palestine conflict:
A historical and slow pace example of how important and successful this strategy is to capture an existing nation or city can been seen through decades long Israel-Palestine conflict (see the map given below). Over time it can be seen how Israel staged its presence around Palestinian territory and how time by time it kept moving in and today it control almost 85% of the land and 100% total control.
Battle of Ajdabiya
A more recent example is of this is Ajdabiya, a town in northeastern Libya south of Benghazi. During the Libyan civil war, the city changed hands several times between rebels and pro-Gaddafi forces. Libyan rebels appeared to have regained control indefinitely in late March after international airstrikes crippled Muammar Gaddafi's forces. However Gaddafi forces surprised those rebels on April 10 when taking advantage of the storm, which kept their forces position secret from the rebels, they moved themselves to the south and launched an attack on the rebels catching them off guard and driving them out.
TTP having adequate experience, skill and strategy, know the fact that as they are also not just some ordinary guerilla group but a managed and trained force in its ranks, their 10yrs long warfare against the Pakistan army and sharply executed attacks like on Mehran base and GHQ are just few of the many examples.
So what does it all means for Karachi?
If you are thinking that what I have written above is more of a fiction and a total outrage armed attack on Karachi from TTP is not possible, I may agree with you to a certain extent, which they will not launch armed infantry movement inside Karachi (but then again nobody can guarantee). But even without that they can use these positions to launch big impact daily guerrilla attacks anywhere in the city with minimum logistical overhead to cater. By positioning themselves on the whole outer ring anyplace in Karachi is within their 40Kilometers of range.
Another article published in a international daily is by the title of Karachi residents live in fear as Pakistan Taliban gains strength, published in Washington Post on February 4 2014.
If it's so obvious why nobody else can foresee this?
Actually it's pretty clear, what I have written above are just pure facts, no theories. However everyone can see this but they don't want to believe it because of a psychological phenomenon called Cognitive Biasin which the subject intentionally tends to ignore something that though is clear in front of them but contrary to their earlier beliefs, we as human don't like to leave or change our beliefs as we have own them for years. And if while reading all above you felt a discomfort inside you and words like "this is funny", "ah! This is just a conspiracy", "fiction" than don't worry it's pretty normal things and it is calledCognitive Dissonance.
But not everyone functions in this manner, all thanks to God there are visionary leaders with guts enough to foresee and tell their followers about the upcoming havocs. Gladly Karachi happened to have one leader like this who warned Karachiites about the "Talibanization of Karachi" six 6 years ago, yes, 6 years. But nobody was ready to digest the idea and laughed at it and ridiculed the statements.
See what Mr. Altaf Hussain had to say 6 years back in October 2008 while addressing a gathering in Clifton Gardens Karachi, this is a historical speech as this was the first time ever Taliban presence in Karachi were even mentioned.
October 31, 2008: Talibanization of Karachi has been started - Altaf Hussain
"You will not believe me but what I am about to tell you now is complete truth. Karachi has been surrounded by militants or I must say military trained Talibans who are against the educated and peaceful people of Pakistan and especially they are against the Karachiites." - [Mr. Altaf Hussian while speaking to a gathering in Clifton Karachi on 31st of October 2008]
But at that time the Sindh government and other political parties, journalists laughed at this statement and ignore and rejected his concerns which now can be a termed as a blunder, intentional or unintentional:
November 19, 2008:No evidence of Talibanization in Karachi: Dr Zulfikar Ali Mirza
November 19, 2008:No Talibanisation in Karachi: Bilour
December 12, 2008:No evidence of Talibanization found in Karachi: President Zardari
But slowly and lately everybody started to realize that Altaf Hussain's concerns were true:
November 2012:All signs indicate that the coastal city has been invaded by the Taliban
April 4, 2013:Occupation 101: Manghopir - how it became a no-go area
April 4, 2013:Karachi talibanisation: Four dead in blast outside Rangers complex
April 7, 2013:Talibanisation of Karachi
May 4, 2013:MQM warned against the Talibanisation of Karachi - Awaam ke Saamney
January 23, 2014:Molana Tanvir-Ul-Haq Thanvi Calls On MQM Leader Altaf Hussain and hailed Altaf Hussain for being the first one to inform about the Talibanisation of Karachi
February 04, 2014:Karachi residents live in fear as Pakistan Taliban gains strength
February 16, 2014:final war with terrorists would be fought here - And latest is that the Chair Person of PPP the party which totally rejected these conerns before.
So what's coming next?
Currently government of Pakistan is currently holding negotiation with TTP, however, it seems on our television screens that talks are moving ahead in a right direction, but in real these talks are destined to fail, because no matter what and how much you put on table, ideological differences cannot be removed and TTP is ideologically an enemy to the state of Pakistan.
When the talks will fail and an army operation will be launched in Waziristan against TTP and co. factions, TTP will use Karachi as a scape goat to put the knife on Pakistan's jugular vein and black mail the government with its demand; TTP would not need to control Karachi completely for these. The difference can be made even with frequent attacks, which can paralyze the financial hub and with this strategy they can seriously cripple the financial power of the city which, in days will be reflected in Islamabad.
A than the proposal on table would be like this:
Operation against TTP in Karachi
Yes, that will be the only option left than but the question is who will do that? The Police is not the capable, logistically or morally and TTP has made this sure by taking out the bravest cop of Karachi who gave TTP a hard time, the Late Chaudry Aslam, in a suicide attack a month ago and then also launching attacks like Razzakabad police station.
Rangers have shown some results with few targeted activities, but this is when TTP is silent and defensive and things will be different when TTP will be the one launching offensives. What remains is the Army; an Army that will already be busy on always-open eastern front, the critical operation in Wazististan and the ongoing operation and Baluchistan. Calling it to handle the urban war terrain of Karachi would be a very tough call.
Civilian Rebellion against TTP - the Armageddon to be fought in Karachi.
Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), the most open and thriving opponent of TTP and extremism, while also being the biggest stake holder in Karachi, would not sit at rest with all this, just praying for their city to fall into their hands. As Sheikh Rasheed put this into words, at the end it will be MQM that will standup and fight for this city and the country.
They will surely retaliate; the inevitable question is how far they can succeed? They are currently facing damage as they claim a state supported biased operation against them which is getting their workers extra judicially killed, and will they be able to raise enough power and logistics to fight against a managed armed rebellion.
There is no doubt that the final war, the Armageddon of this 10 yearlong conflict of Pakistan against TPP will be fought in this city, there will be blood, there will pain and at the end their will be a bright morning or a dark night. Let's keep praying for the earlier.
