Body count data

[Paul2]

This is what I came over the weekend:

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fdataisbeautiful%252Fcomments%252Fez13dv%252Fcomment%252Ffgkkh59

Somebody did curve fitting on the data, and found out that recovery and death rate is undoubtedly being cooked.

I took some time (2 days fyi) to digest the info, and now I think it's legit.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Edit:

• 05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities
  
  
• 06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities
  
  
• 07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities
  
  
• 08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities
  
  
• 09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
  
  
• 10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
  
  
• 11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities

I checked the official data provided by the China Health Commission, and ... I found that the deviation was huge.

The fact is:
05/02/2020 28018 cases, 563 fatalities

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/06/content_5475116.htm


06/02/2020 31161 cases, 636 fatalities

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/07/content_5475586.htm


07/02/2020 34546 cases, 722 fatalities

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/08/content_5476025.htm


08/02/2020 37198 cases, 811 fatalities

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/09/content_5476340.htm


09/02/2020 40171 cases, 908 fatalities

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/10/content_5476642.htm


*国家卫健委在第二天报道截止前一天24时的统计总数。这一般是中国网站所引用的数据来源。

如果你把当日的报道算成当天的数据，仍然会发现数据偏差是很大的，正确的几乎只有数量级。

所以……？
--
The weird thing, however, is that you can get the number of people infected in any city, county or even community. In counties and cities where the number of cases is not large, you can even get detailed information about infected persons from official report.

Because every local health committee, or other departments with similar functions, usually in charge of a small town or county, will report the number of infections to the public and its superior department. Through such layers of reporting, the total number of infected people was obtained.

In the village where I am currently living or, to be more precise, trapped, belongs to a small county, local health committee reported the name, sex and age of the infected people and their close contacts, as well as which town or village they live in.

以下均为截止2月7日24时的数据。

临澧县数据。Data of Linli county.

常德市数据。Data of Changde city.
Each case is still notified in detail.
Reported the number of infections in each county.
Read more, http://wjw.changde.gov.cn/zhdt/wjdt/content_718705

Data of Hunan province. Reported the number of infections in each city.
Hunan Provincial Health Commission also released reports in other languages, ↓↓
http://www.hunan.gov.cn/topic/fkxxgzbd/yqtb/202002/t20200208_11174002.html

看得出来，每一级报道的数量并没有偏差或者篡改。

县级、市级会通报病例详细情况和地址，省级卫健部门汇总所有城市的数据。

All figure are consistent with the data given by the superior department of the county health department.

So what went wrong?

 

[Uguduwa]

But the mortality rate outside is quite low outside China and it remains at 0.02%. Any idea what's causing high fatalities in Wuhan? My guess is overwhelmed medical infrastructure or the number of infected has to be few times higher than what the local authorities are reporting. Also does anyone have any idea why the 34 years old doctor died? I was under the impression that this virus is lethal only to old and people with chronic illnesses.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

But the mortality rate outside is quite low outside China and it remains at 0.02%.

If the data recorded on this website are correct, the mortality rate outside mainland China should be 0.53%.

If you combine Hong Kong data with mainland China, the overseas mortality rate should be 0.29%, but usually, data from mainland China and Hong Kong don't merged.

After all Hong Kong is a very special city. It is a special administrative region (SAR) with a different system from mainland China.

Nevertheless, whether it is 0.53% or 0.29%, it's similar to the mortality data outside Hubei Province, that is 0.31%, 32 of the 10151 infected people outside Hubei province died.

Source: http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/

Any idea what's causing high fatalities in Wuhan? My guess is overwhelmed medical infrastructure or the number of infected has to be few times higher than what the local authorities are reporting. Also does anyone have any idea why the 34 years old doctor died? I was under the impression that this virus is lethal only to old and people with chronic illnesses.

There are many reasons for the high mortality rate in Hubei Province and its provincial capital Wuhan.

According to current reports, Wuhan is facing problems such as,
lack of doctors and nurses, overload of local hospitals, doctors and nurses do not even get enough rest, and it is more difficult for patients in Wuhan to get medical resources, such as ECMO, and be taken good care of, compared to patients outside Hubei province.

In addition, in the early stage, as hospitals give priority to patients with serious conditions, it is more difficult for mild patients to be diagnosed. Although more public facilities have been requisitioned in Wuhan to accommodate mildly ill patients, this problem has been solved.

The above-mentioned are my personal views. The possibility of being misled by the media cannot be ruled out.

As for the death of that 34-year-old doctor, I am not very clear on that, but the mortality rate in Wuhan has been very high yet, so his death is not surprising.

--

From overseas view, this coronavirus epidemic seems to be a disaster for China, but more accurately, it is actually a disaster for Wuhan City and even Hubei Province.

For people outside the province, the virus like a slightly more dangerous seasonal flu, but for people in Wuhan, it is more like SARS. *I'm not referring to symptoms, but mortality rate here.

In this disaster, Wuhan citizens, especially those severely infected and those who have lost relatives, are deeply desperate.

The saddest fact is that these patients and even the dead may not die if they can get to other provinces for medical treatment. However, the lockdown of Wuhan did stop the virus from spreading outside the province and prevent other cities from becoming the next Wuhan. There is even a general view that the lockdown was too late. The truth is cruel.

 

[striver44]

We all knew that China CCP interfere with the real death toll

 

[Uguduwa]

There are many reasons for the high mortality rate in Hubei Province and its provincial capital Wuhan.

According to current reports, Wuhan is facing problems such as,
lack of doctors and nurses, overload of local hospitals, doctors and nurses do not even get enough rest, and it is more difficult for patients in Wuhan to get medical resources, such as ECMO, and be taken good care of, compared to patients outside Hubei province.

In addition, in the early stage, as hospitals give priority to patients with serious conditions, it is more difficult for mild patients to be diagnosed. Although more public facilities have been requisitioned in Wuhan to accommodate mildly ill patients, this problem has been solved.

The above-mentioned are my personal views. The possibility of being misled by the media cannot be ruled out.

As for the death of that 34-year-old doctor, I am not very clear on that, but the mortality rate in Wuhan has been very high yet, so his death is not surprising.

Do you mean to say that everyone infected need to be hospitalised? What I've been hearing here is that this disease is nothing more than flue for a young person and he or she should be able to recover at home just like you would recover from regular flu. The two confirmed patients in France earlier for instance had very mild symptoms and recovered quickly. To be honest, I still don't have a clear picture of the nature of this virus and I am not particularly worried here either.

Yeah I understand, I think early on they shouldn't have encouraged everyone to go to hospital and check. Usually only those who are at most risk should be hospitalized so that the doctors are not overwhelmed. Was it not clear early on that this virus is capable of human-to-human transmission? If yes, then looking at the videos of all those queues to the hospital, I think local authorities have done a rather bad job.

 

[scherz]

If we consider, that people with low symptons or even no symptons are not registered, than, the fatality rate is even lower.

 

[Uguduwa]

Honestly I am shit scared of economic impact of this. My own company relies a lot on Chinese market.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Just an idiot that doesn't know shit about epidemiology.

All he did was graph some numbers Excel and picked a quadratic model. There's no reason to pick a quadratic model in epidemiology. Disease growth is typically exponential. And when you do best fit, guess what: the parameters are forced to fit as best as possible. Any smooth function can be fitted by arbitrary number of polynomial if you pick enough polynomials and cherrypick the coefficients.

His model is y = Ax^2 + Bx + C. So why those particular numbers of A,B,C, and what do A,B,C mean? He doesn't know, nobody knows, because it's a shit and unphysical model.

From the Taylor expansion of y=Ae^Bx = A+ ABx + A(Bx)^2/2! + A(Bx)^3/3! +.... you can always pick A and B such that y = Ae^Bx ~ y = A + ABx + A(Bx)^2. You can always pick random numbers that make an exponential look quadratic.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Honestly I am shit scared of economic impact of this. My own company relies a lot on Chinese market.

Yeah.thats what ppl worry about. Cnese will not buy too many luxury cars, clothes, wine, houses anymore, they will spend more money on medical stuff ( med mask, aid kit )

Many companies selling unnecessary things in CN will go broke while selling med stuff will become billionares.

Lucky for VN, we mainly export food and med stuff to CN

 

[Flash_Ninja]

Yeah.thats what ppl worry about. Cnese will not buy too many luxury cars, clothes, wine, houses anymore, they will spend more money on medical stuff ( med mask, aid kit )

Many companies selling unnecessary things in CN will go broke while selling med stuff will become billionares.

Lucky for VN, we mainly export food and med stuff to CN

From what I hear, if this continues for another few months there might be an economic crisis worse than 2008

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yeah.thats what ppl worry about. Cnese will not buy too many luxury cars, clothes, wine, houses anymore, they will spend more money on medical stuff ( med mask, aid kit )

Many companies selling unnecessary things in CN will go broke while selling med stuff will become billionares.

Lucky for VN, we mainly export food and med stuff to CN

Vietnam exports only low value added labor intensive stuff to China.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Vietnam exports only low value added labor intensive stuff to China.

And jobless-usless Cnese like u still have to que up for "low value added labor intensive stuff" like med mask in VN border

------

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/vietnam-declares-the-wuhan-virus-as-class-a-epidemic.651971/

From what I hear, if this continues for another few months there might be an economic crisis worse than 2008

It may happen in EU and CN only cos EU sell many luxury cars-clothes-wine to CN.

VN main export market is US, so we will still be ok .

 

[KungFuLee]

Just an idiot that doesn't know shit about epidemiology.

All he did was graph some numbers Excel and picked a quadratic model. There's no reason to pick a quadratic model in epidemiology. Disease growth is typically exponential. And when you do best fit, guess what: the parameters are forced to fit as best as possible. Any smooth function can be fitted by arbitrary number of polynomial if you pick enough polynomials and cherrypick the coefficients.

His model is y = Ax^2 + Bx + C. So why those particular numbers of A,B,C, and what do A,B,C mean? He doesn't know, nobody knows, because it's a shit and unphysical model.

From the Taylor expansion of y=Ae^Bx = A+ ABx + A(Bx)^2/2! + A(Bx)^3/3! +.... you can always pick A and B such that y = Ae^Bx ~ y = A + ABx + A(Bx)^2. You can always pick random numbers that make an exponential look quadratic.

You know why he said that right?

He was accusing China of cooking the data. Because that is what you get if you put actual data supplied by Chinese government This is the graph looks like

Most outbreak data are, as you said present in exponential increment, and also random, so you don't get a perfect quadratic graph if you plot an actual outbreak progress.

However, the graph above did not indicate an exponential increment and is quite conformal, which suggest the number is not random.

There are only one way the graph above, which I will remind you again is from official Chinese figure, that make sense, is that the outbreak was being contained nicely fit into a quadratic model (hence R-0 decrease quadratically) I mean, that usually not the case in outbreak, hence the data cooking rumour.

 

[ziaulislam]

But the mortality rate outside is quite low outside China and it remains at 0.02%. Any idea what's causing high fatalities in Wuhan? My guess is overwhelmed medical infrastructure or the number of infected has to be few times higher than what the local authorities are reporting. Also does anyone have any idea why the 34 years old doctor died? I was under the impression that this virus is lethal only to old and people with chronic illnesses.

Mortality rate is 3-4% for admitted people which is very high
Outside therent even been enough cases