Body count data

[Mista]

In the village where I am currently living or, to be more precise, trapped

Why is that so if I may ask?

The saddest fact is that these patients and even the dead may not die if they can get to other provinces for medical treatment. However, the lockdown of Wuhan did stop the virus from spreading outside the province and prevent other cities from becoming the next Wuhan.

I see, didn't see it that way before.

I always thought Wuhan has a significantly higher mortality rate because of selection bias of diagnosing more serious cases due to lack of medical resources, and the fact that Wuhan is the primary source of the virus and therefore the viral load among those who are infected are the highest (I have no medical knowledge, just speculation).

身为武汉人，封锁武汉你有何感想？

 

[lcloo]

Using latest updated figures, here are some fatality rates.

Wuhan City
1,123 deaths among 37,914 confirmed cases = 2.96%

Hubei Province
1,457 deaths among 54,406 confirmed cases = 2.68%

China Nationwide
1,524 deaths among 66,576 confirmed cases = 2.23%

China Nationwide Excluding Hubei
67 deaths among 12,170 confirmed cases = 0.55%


After the new definition of confirmed cases, the number of confirmed cases has increased, also giving allowance for unreported light infected cases, the actual fatality rate for Wuhan and Hubei would be lower than 2.96% and 2.68%.

Once the statistical population is huge enough, we will see much clearer.

delete

 

[JSCh]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/22 21:15:00 Last Updated: 2020/2/15 8:04:16

​

Medical staffs swear in as members of "assault team" in the fight against the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia in a hospital in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, Jan. 22, 2020. (Xinhua/Cheng Min)

8:00 am Feb 15

143 new deaths, 2,641 new confirmed cases were reported on Feb 14 in the Chinese mainland, said China's National Health Commission. The total infection number soared to 66,492, with 1,523 deaths as of Feb 14.

7:20 am Feb 15

Hubei Province reported 2420 new cases of coronavirus infections (including 1138 clinically diagnosed cases) on Feb 14, with 139 new deaths and 912 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 54406, with 1457 deaths.

11:48 pm Feb 14

Honghu city in Central China's Hubei, has implemented wartime control measures, becoming the fourth city in the province to use such measures amid coronavirus outbreak.

11:18 pm Feb 14

The first 11 passengers aged over 80 on the quarantined cruise ship in Japan have disembarked and been taken to a university for quarantine after testing negative for COVID19: Japanese report

10:24 pm Feb 14

Chinese President Xi Jinping encouraged the use of big data, AI, cloud computing and other digital technologies to support epidemic monitoring, analysis and resource allocation

8:54 pm Feb 14

President Xi urged that the country should integrate biosafety into the national security system and establish a biosafety law as soon as possible.

7:28 pm Feb 14

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday urged an improvement in the preventive mechanism in response to major public health crises and the country's public health emergency and management system. Xi also stressed the importance to roll out a biosecurity law as soon as possible.

6:13 pm Feb 14

Ningbo, a major Chinese port city where 1 out of 4 people work in the foreign trade sector, has seen its export-dependent economy take a big hit from the spread of COVID-19: deputy mayor

5:58 pm Feb 14

China’s authorities released 14,000 tons of pork from the central reserve on Friday to meet demand amid the novel coronavirus pneumonia crisis: Ministry of Commerce

5:31 pm Feb 14

March IELTS tests will be cancelled in the Chinese mainland amid the COVID19 outbreak. Test fees will be fully refunded to candidates’ personal registration accounts.

5:17 pm Feb 14

11 people quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan, left the ship on Friday after testing negative for COVID-19, including an 80-year-old man and passengers in rooms without windows. 218 people aboard have tested positive for the Coronavirus.

5:15 pm Feb 14

77 COVID-19 clusters were confirmed in Beijing, among which 70 were family gatherings, according to an official from Beijing's disease control center

4:46 pm Feb 14

The financial market is sensitive to the short-term impact of the coronavirus but will return to its fundamentals in the long term, said an official at China’s central bank, noting the impact is transient, limited, and won't change Chinese economy’s good prospects.

4:30 pm Feb 14

Chinese banks must increase small business loans during the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, preferably offering more credit to industries and regions hit hard: Li Jufeng, an official with China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission

3:35 pm Feb 14

A total of six medical workers had died as a result of COVID-19 as of Tuesday, accounting for 0.4% of the total fatality rate; there are 1,716 infected medical workers in total, 3.8 percent of all infections: China’s top health authority

3:19 pm Feb 14

14 of 311 Chinese nationals were confirmed infected with #COVID19 on Diamond Princess cruise ship: Chinese Embassy in Japan

2:44 pm Feb 14

China has designated 80.5 billion yuan ($11.54 billion) for epidemic prevention and control as of Thursday at all government levels; actual expenditure has reached 41 billion yuan: Ministry of Finance

11:40 am Feb 14

Yunmeng County in #Hubei announced wartime controls would begin on Friday, making it the third area in the #COVID19-engulfed province to launched such measures, following Shiyan and Dawu.

11:15 am Feb 14

28 recovered COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospital in Shanghai on Friday. Six of them are willing to donate blood plasma for further research to combat novel coronavirus.

10:50 am Feb 14

Numbers of novel coronavirus infections reported on daily basis outside epicenter Hubei Province declined for the 10th consecutive day as reported on Friday, with 267 new cases.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Why is that so if I may ask?

首先，我的一家在一月下旬，自驾从武汉出发到湖南乡下，我和母亲在外祖母家，父亲四天之前在他老家，由于两地都有对武汉来客实施严格的管理措施，没有申请是无法离开当地的。

其次，由于现在很多城市的酒店不一定开放，我们一家除了回武汉或西安外没有其他的选择。
武汉的情况是：如无允许，中心市区内机动车禁行，而且外地返回也要隔离14天。很多高速公路也被封了。家里没有食物储备。社区封闭化管理。
西安的情况是：外地返回要隔离14天，一部分高速也被封了。（来自高德地图的信息）
此外，不确定一路上会不会有禁止鄂A牌通行的高速公路，所以现在不敢轻易申请离开。

四天前，父亲试图开车到我和母亲所在的乡村来，但由于没有得到许可被交通管理人员劝阻返回。我的舅舅开车到父亲所在的山村协助他办理手续后在第二天得以离开。
然而得到了离开的准予，并不意味着你可以开车上高速公路，想去哪就去哪。
我的父亲在开车到这边来后，被当地人举报了，毕竟鄂A（注：车牌上的鄂=湖北省，A=省会武汉）车牌现在太显眼，人人防备… 然后县里就派人来劝我父亲去县上的酒店隔离，未果，但由于隔离政策他14天内不能离开这个村庄。

后来父亲把“鄂A”用奇怪的东西遮起来了。

综合以上种种原因，现在我的一家只能待在这个村子里。
顺便一提的是，现在我的父亲网络办公，我自己正准备后天的网上开学，虽然被困在这里，但不误事…
唯一可惜的一点是我今年寒假本来有计划出国旅行，因突如其来的ncov而被搁置。

身为武汉人，封锁武汉你有何感想？

由于我的熟人们均无恙——我的亲人、校友、朋友没有一人感染，我和父亲于一月中旬常外出，本人甚至是每天坐公交去公共场所（湖北省图书馆、馆内一般有上千人）都没有得病。我并没有太多深刻的感受。

以下大概会被认为是「慷他人之慨」：
封锁武汉是为了防止疫情扩散，虽然留在市内的病人很可怜，但如不封锁任由病毒携带者前往全国各地，很多城市（比如武汉附近的城市）死亡率会因当地医疗系统过载而比武汉更高，要知道武汉已经是医疗资源（医院、每千人医生护士数、床位数）在全国靠前的城市了。

「将疫情控制在一定范围内，全国其他地方没有大规模蔓延，才有可能抽调出更多的资源救助武汉。」

封锁武汉对我和家人的生活已造成种种不便，但对此完全理解。

 

[Mista]

武汉的情况是：如无允许，中心市区内机动车禁行，而且外地返回也要隔离14天。很多高速公路也被封了。家里没有食物储备。社区封闭化管理。

看起来还挺严重的，这样经济社会运作岂不是几乎停顿了吗？封闭化管理是怎么进行的？全武汉都要社区封闭化管理吗？

后来父亲把“鄂A”用奇怪的东西遮起来了。

春节装饰吧？ 遮起来不违法吗哈哈

唯一可惜的一点是我今年寒假本来有计划出国旅行，因突如其来的ncov而被搁置。

哦，本来计划到哪里啊？

 

[CHN Bamboo]

看起来还挺严重的，这样经济社会运作岂不是几乎停顿了吗？封闭化管理是怎么进行的？全武汉都要社区封闭化管理吗？

根据湖北省疫情防控指挥部的通报，
https://www.hubei.gov.cn/zhuanti/2020/gzxxgzbd/zxtb/202002/t20200213_2026084.shtml

为进一步加强疫情防控工作，有效减少人员流动聚集，阻断疫情传播，切实保障人民群众生命安全和身体健康，根据《中华人民共和国突发事件应对法》《中华人民共和国传染病防治法》和湖北省重大突发公共卫生事件I级响应机制的有关规定，现就延迟企业复工和学校开学有关事项通告如下：

一、省内各类企业不早于2月20日24时前复工。涉及疫情防控必需（医疗器械、药品、防护品生产和销售等行业）、保障公共事业运行必需（供水、供电、油气、通讯等行业）、群众生活必需（超市卖场、食品生产和供应等行业）及其他涉及重要国计民生的相关企业除外。复工企业要严格落实各项疫情防控措施，依法保障劳动者合法权益。各行业主管部门要加强对企业防疫工作的指导和监督。

二、省内大专院校、中小学、中职学校、技工院校、幼儿园延期开学。具体开学时间，将根据疫情防控情况，经科学评估后确定，并提前向社会公布。

三、各级党政机关、事业单位要组织干部职工下沉到村（社区）基层一线，参与疫情防控工作。

四、广大居民（包括在湖北探亲访友休假的外地人员）应严格遵守现居住地疫情防控要求，尽量减少出行，不参加集聚性活动，做好居家环境卫生。出入公共场所必须佩戴口罩，对不听劝阻的人员依据相关法律法规予以处理。

五、各地各单位要认真落实本通告要求，强化主体责任，切实把各项疫情防控和服务保障措施抓实、抓细、抓落地，确保社会大局平稳有序。

也就是说绝大部分企业的生产、学校仍然要维持现在停止运作的状态到20日24时。（还是暂时的，可能还要推迟复工复学时间）
武汉市的生产生活几乎停止了。毫无疑问对经济的影响非常严重…

关于封闭管理，
http://www.hubei.gov.cn/zhuanti/2020/gzxxgzbd/zxtb/202002/t20200215_2028492.shtml

武汉市防控指挥部明确住宅小区封闭管理主要措施

住宅小区一律实行封闭管理 小区居民出入一律严格管控

2月14日，武汉市新冠肺炎疫情防控指挥部发布通知，明确武汉市住宅小区封闭管理主要措施，要求住宅小区一律实行封闭管理，小区居民出入一律严格管控。

“通知”明确规定，一个小区一律只保留一个出入口。老旧小区、开放式居住区通过打围方式实现硬隔离，2月14日之前完成。出入口安排人员24小时值班值守，测温登记，审核放行。

“通知”要求各区根据具体情况制定限定居民外出管控办法。除就医以及防疫情、保运行等岗位人员外，其他居民一律不得外出。小区人员出入一律测温、登记。无特殊理由，外来人员一律不得进入小区。

村湾的封闭管理，由各区遵照以上原则结合实际予以实施。

市新冠肺炎疫情防控指挥部要求，住宅小区封闭管理实行属地管理，各区委、区政府必须高度重视，明确任务，落实责任，迅速完成，持之以恒。在封闭管理期间，切实加强环境卫生整治，切实保障居民基本生活需求，特别是做好特殊群体的关爱服务。各级党组织要充分发挥战斗堡垒作用，党员干部要充分发挥先锋模范作用，站在前列，干在实处，成为居民群众的主心骨和贴心人。

春节装饰吧？ 遮起来不违法吗哈哈

根据2016年1月1日起施行的《机动车驾驶证申领和使用规定》(公安部令第123号)的内容，上道路行驶的机动车未悬挂机动车号牌的，或者故意遮挡、污损、不按规定安装机动车号牌的违法行为，会被处以扣罚12分并且处罚款200元。根据《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》规定，上道路行驶的机动车未悬挂机动车号牌，公安机关交通管理部门应当扣留机动车。

不上道路行驶，应该不会有事。这就相当于在自家车库里把车牌挡起来。
暂时也无必要开车上路，目前亲戚们在帮忙采购，他们已经热心地开车送了好几趟物资了。
遮挡车牌只是不想吓到路人…

哦，本来计划到哪里啊？

到东南亚过冬呀。
现在我们这边才下完雪，温度0℃。可冷了……

 

[JSCh]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/22 21:15:00 Last Updated: 2020/2/16 6:40:30

​

Medical staffs swear in as members of "assault team" in the fight against the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia in a hospital in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, Jan. 22, 2020. (Xinhua/Cheng Min)

08:48 am Feb 16

142 new deaths 2,009 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 68,500 with 1,665 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 15.

06:15 am Feb 16

Hubei Province reported 1,843 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia (including 888 clinically diagnosed cases) on Feb 15, with 139 new deaths and 849 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 56,249, with 1,596 dead and 5,623 recovered.

6:50 pm Feb 15

New images of Novel Coronavirus are released by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) on Feb 13. Inferring from the photo taken by the microscope, NIAID believes the COVID-19 has many similarities with SARS and MERS.

6:24 pm Feb 15

The first novel coronavirus fatality was confirmed in Europe and outside Asia, as France announced the death of a Chinese tourist.

6:00 pm Feb 15

As of Saturday evening, 67 more passengers on board the Japanese cruise ship, Diamond Princess, were confirmed with COVID19 infection, taking the total infected number to 285 on the ship.

5:28 pm Feb 15

Ministry of Transport announced on Saturday the exemption of highway toll from Monday till the COVID19 epidemic ends.

4:53 pm Feb 15

A team of international and WHO experts are expected to reach China over the weekend to swiftly inform the public about the next steps in the COVID19 response and preparedness activities in China and globally, said National Health Commission on Saturday.

4:26 pm Feb 15

A total of 168 critical cases and 17 minor cases of COVID19 are receiving treatment using Remdesivir, an antivirus drug developed by US drug maker Gilead Sciences , in 11 hospitals in Hubei Province: Ministry of Science and Technology.

3:58 pm Feb 15

Bats are the most likely source of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, said Ministry of Science and Technology. The ministry also is studying if pangolins are the hosts.

3:45 pm Feb 15

Hydroxychloroquine, an antivirus drug used against malaria, potentially useful to fight COVID19, is under clinical trials at 9 medical institutions, according to Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co, the sole manufacturer of the drug with a market share of 76%.


1:15 pm Feb 15

Banknotes quarantine! People's Bank of China is asking banks and institutions to disinfect banknotes. Those from areas hit by COVID19 will be disinfected by ultraviolet rays or high temperatures and quarantined for more than 14 days before re-circulation.

11:28 am Feb 15

Beijing city is intensifyng virus fight, ordering all Beijing-based work units to ensure "zero infections" as the city faces a challenge of rising arrivals of migrant workers. The capital city enacted a law Friday all people coming to Beijing must be quarantined for 14 days.

10:27 am Feb 15

China has sent 217 medical rescue groups of 25,633 members to Central China's Hubei Province to combat COVID19, surpassing the number of those to support Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, which killed more than 80,000 people: official

10:21 am Feb 15

Experts from Sinopharm are calling the healed patients from COVID19 to donate their blood so that their blood plasma could be used to help more coronavirus pneumonia suffers. Now up to 100 recovered patients have agreed to donate blood.

 

[JSCh]

MODEL INDICATES CURRENT COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN CHINA ALREADY DECLINING
16 February 2020 NEWS

A mathematical model set up by an ad-hoc group of scientists indicates the number of currently infected novel coronavirus cases in China began a pattern of decline as of February 12. Currently infected cases are those confirmed to be ill with the virus who have not yet recovered or died.

When the model’s data was updated February 13 as the result of a change in Hubei province’s reporting, the model’s predicted date for the start of the decline jumped back.

“Before, our model indicated the decline would not start until February 16,” says Dr Yi Zou, who is based in the Department of Health and Environmental Sciences at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

“So, when we updated the data going into the model that creates the model’s parameters to capture the new way Hubei province is reporting, we were surprised and hopeful to see it indicates the decline has already begun,” he says.

“The figures created from the model February 13-15 from previous-day data show that the daily number of cured cases and deceased cases is now higher than the newly infected, leading to a decrease in the number currently infected.”

Dr Zou explains that as of February 13, Hubei province is reporting clinically diagnosed cases as “confirmed” even if they have not been confirmed by RNA test kits.

“In our understanding, Hubei province now rapidly confirms suspected cases and adds those to the confirmed cases, which explains the sudden increase in their confirmed cases.”

Before, Dr Zou’s team used confirmed cases as data the model uses to calculate its parameters. The new data uses the combination of confirmed and suspected cases for all dates in the model, recalculating the cumulative total for all dates starting at the disease outbreak.

While adding suspected cases to confirmed cases causes the data to be more “messy,” the model is still a good fit, Dr Zou says.

“The data reported from across China the last three days still fits our model fairly well. According to the model, currently infected cases have started declining,” Dr Zou says.

“This pattern would be hopeful, since each day there are fewer people who infect others, and the burden of taking care of sick people should decline,” he says.

“However, as always, a mathematical model is not a direct window to the future. If factors that affect the trend change or if the data on current cases is underreported, the model’s indications will not be accurate.”

A few days ago, Dr Zou made the same caveats when his team’s model predicted a drop to nearly no new, confirmed cases starting February 23. With the model’s updated parameters, the data so far remains on trend for that forecast.

He explains that he and others in the team selected a logistic equation model to study the novel coronavirus outbreak because it is commonly used for population dynamics and epidemiological analysis.

“Our thought was that this model might reflect the dynamics of this outbreak – how infection behaves, what processes drive it and what might constrain it, for example,” he says.

Dr Zou is one of four researchers from universities in China – three from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and one from Southern University of Science and Technology – who publish figures derived from the model on a website they set up for use by scientists, journalists and other researchers.

The website includes open access to data from across China on the novel coronavirus outbreak and daily statistical modeling, both for the country as a whole and for its individual provinces.

The data is both as current as possible and from authoritative sources, Dr. Zou says.

“All data and information are automatically captured every 30 minutes through a background program to ensure timeliness,” he says.

“The data and information sources include government websites at all levels and media such as People's Daily and China Central Television to ensure that information is open, transparent and traceable.

“Our volunteer team members perform the data processing, modeling, visualisation and publishing tasks using R language.”

Other researchers can download data packages for their own data modeling and research on the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Besides the data and models available both in Chinese and English, the website also includes, in Chinese-only, information from news agencies and evidence-based answers to myths and rumours.

In addition to Dr Zou, other volunteers responsible for development of the website include Dr Peng Zhao and Dr Lei Han, also of XJTLU’s Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, and Dr Xiaoxiang Wang from Southern University of Science and Technology.

The website includes a language toggle from Chinese to English.

Above: Figure created February 15 showing currently infected novel coronavirus cases declining (orange line)

The website’s WeChat platform QR code is below:

By Tamara Kaup​

Model indicates current COVID-19 infections in China already declining | News | Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU)

 

[JSCh]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1228947348639768582

CGTN✔@CGTNOfficial

The ratio of severe to confirmed #coronavirus cases in China is decreasing, says the National Health Commission. From Jan. 27/28 to Feb. 15:

- Wuhan: from 32.4% to 21.6%
- Hubei Province: from 18.4% to 11.1%
- Outside Hubei: from 15.9% to 7.2%



105
3:40 PM - Feb 16, 2020

 

[JSCh]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/22 21:15:00 Last Updated: 2020/2/17 7:06:04

​

Medical staffs swear in as members of "assault team" in the fight against the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia in a hospital in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, Jan. 22, 2020. (Xinhua/Cheng Min)

08:46 am Feb 17

105 new deaths 2,048 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 70,548 with 1,770 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 16.

06:44 am Feb 17

Hubei Province reported 1,933 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 16, with 100 new deaths and 1,016 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 58,182, with 6,639 recovered and 1,696 dead.

00:51 am Feb 17

Cambodia's Health Ministry spokeswoman Or Vandine on Sunday requested a re-test of the 83-year-old US passenger who had left the "Westerdam" cruise ship in Cambodia and was tested positive for COVID-19 in Malaysia last week.

11:11 pm Feb 16

Xiaogan, a city in Central China's Hubei, is to ban all residents from going out except in case of necessity starting from Monday, and those who violate the regulation will be placed in detention for 10 days for violating public security rules.

11:09 pm Feb 16

Tibet donated 50 tons of yak to #Hubei on Sunday to support the province's fight against COVID-19. Tibet has already donated living materials worth 8.5 million yuan to Hubei on Friday.

11:06 pm Feb 16

North China's Tianjin postponed the first English examination and the oral English test for the 2020 college entrance examination gaokao, which were scheduled to be held in late March, to curb COVID-19 spread. When the tests will be held is yet to be determined.

10:28 pm Feb 16

Fang Cang makeshift hospitals in epicenter Wuhan will offer 13,001 more beds in the next 3 days. The city has established 11 Fang Cang hospitals, with 20,461 beds planned to treat coronvairus patients.

10:27 pm Feb 16

An average of 7 hours has been spent in watching TV per day for each household between Jan 25 and Feb 9 amid COVID19 outbreak, up 41.7% month-on-month: statistics from China's National Radio and Television Administration

10:11 pm Feb 16

Set the target for the next 3 days! Wuhan govt vows to put ALL confirmed patients infected with COVID19 into treatment, finish nucleic acid tests with ALL suspected patients, perform proper tests to ALL patients with fever and put ALL close contacts in quarantine.

9:33 pm Feb 16

Fapilavir, the first domestically developed drug with potential effect for treating COVID19, has received approval for sale. Fapilavir is one of the three medicines that show good effect in clinical trials: reports

8:53 pm Feb 16

Pathologists at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital have concluded autopsies on the first and second COVID19 victims, with the consent of the relatives of the dead. Their findings and results have been submitted for examination by the relevant authorities

7:49 pm Feb 16

6 new infected cases with COVID2019 were confirmed Sunday in Japan, including 5 men in their 30s-60s in Tokyo and 1 man in his 60s in Aichi Prefecture: Yomiuri Shimbun

7:09 pm Feb 16

97-year-old! The eldest patient infected with the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in Nanjing was cured! The man has no recent history of traveling to Wuhan but had close contact with a patient diagnosed with the NCP. He was in poor health when he was admitted to hospital.

7:08 pm Feb 16

10 cities in Central China's Hubei Province suspended selling medicines for fever and cough amid the COVID-19 outbreak, urging people who have such symptoms to go to hospital as soon as possible.

7:02 pm Feb 16

The island of Taiwan reported its first death from COVID-19 infection on Sunday: a 61-year-old man who also suffered from diabetes and hepatitis B died from the coronavirus: media reports

6:10 pm Feb 16

The real inflection point [of the COVID19 outbreak] has come. Over the past 5 days, the number of fever cases has dropped. It is like a downward slope. It's not coming back, I'm confident: head of Leishenshan Hospital specializing in treating COVID19 patients in Wuhan said to media

6:08 pm Feb 16

4 new infected cases with COVID2019 were confirmed in Tokyo on Sunday, among whom two are close contacts of the taxi driver who was confirmed with the infection on Thursday: All-Nippon News Network

5:52 pm Feb 16

Companies in the epicenter of Hubei Province are not allowed to resume production unless being approved by epidemic prevention and control authorities: Hubei government

5:50 pm Feb 16

The government of Huanggang, one of the hardest-hit cities in the epidemic-stricken Hubei Province, awarded 500 yuan to people who proactively report and seek medical help after finding themselves with fever and cough symptoms.

5:17 pm Feb 16

Traffic control measures are strengthened across Hubei, epicenter of the COVID-19. All motor vehicles are forbidden to drive on road except for special vehicles such as vehicles for epidemic prevention, public transport vehicles and vehicles transporting daily necessities.

4:49 pm Feb 16

Yokohama, Japan announced on Sat that a man from the city's fire department who rescued infected patients from the Diamond Princess cruise ship has been infected with NCP, raising concerns in the city as the man was wearing a protective suit: Yomiuri Shimbun

3:41 pm Feb 16

The proportion of critical #COVID19 patients to all confirmed cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China have all dropped
-The ratio peaked at 32.4% on Jan 28 and fell to 21.6% in Wuhan on Sat
-It dropped from 15.9% on Jan 27 to 7.2% in other places outside Hubei on Sat

2:46 pm Feb 16

Frontline doctors in Wuhan denied online rumors about the viral impact being significantly weakened during the third and fourth-generation of infections and claimed that such statements are irresponsible

12:56 pm Feb 16

No new cases of COVID19 reported in Hainan, Qinghai, Ningxia and Tibet in China. Meanwhile, Tibet has been reporting no new infection case for 17 straight days since the region's only patient was discharged from hospital on Feb 12.

11:43 am Feb 16

A small number of patients at Leishenshan Hospital in the epidemic center Wuhan are likely to be discharged next week, said the hospital director on Sun. 500 beds are in operation in the hospital and the remaining 1,000 beds are expected to be available within two to three days

11:23 am Feb 16

The Security Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government said on Sat that it will arrange free chartered planes for the Hong Kong residents who have been quarantined on the “Diamond Princess" in Yokohama, Japan, and fly them back to Hong Kong as soon as they are allowed to be let off. All will be arranged to stay in a quarantine center for 14 days after returning to HK. According to the information provided by the cruise company, there are about 330 Hong Kong residents on board.

9:55 am Feb 16

Seventy new cases of COVID19 infections were confirmed on the quarantined cruise ship in Japan, bringing the total number of cases to 355: Japanese media.

 

[JSCh]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/22 21:15:00 Last Updated: 2020/2/18 6:57:53

07:59 am Feb 18

98 new deaths 1,886 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 72,436 with 1,868 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 17.

06:49 am Feb 18

Hubei Province reported 1,807 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 17, with 93 new deaths and 1,223 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 59,989, with 7,862 recovered and 1,789 dead.

00:35 am Feb 18

Epicenter Wuhan plans to build another 10 Fang Cang makeshift hospitals, offering about 11,465 beds for milder patients infected with COVID-19.

10:50 pm Feb 17

S.Korea's Disease Management Division stated that from Tuesday, the country will integrate novel coronavirus pneumonia COVID-19 into the "Severe Acute Respiratory Infectious Disease Supervision System". 30 cases confirmed as of 4pm local time on Monday.

10:22 pm Feb 17

Authorities should consider recognizing those who sacrifice their lives for prevention and control work against COVID-19 as martyrs and implement preferential treatment including martyrs' pensions: Xinhua

10:10 pm Feb 17

The Hong Kong SAR Government announced on Monday that it will send two charter flights to pick up 350 Hong Kong residents stranded on the Princess Diamond cruise ship. They are expected to return to Hong Kong by Thursday.

10:08 pm Feb 17

COVID-19 will peak later in February in South China. Nationwide, the disease is expected to reach its peak in April, according to Zhong Nanshan, a leading expert tackling the epidemic: reports

10:00 pm Feb 17

COVID-19 has been confirmed in 519 people in Japan as of Monday. Meanwhile, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced the symptom criteria for consultation at medical institutions, media reports said.

7:21 pm Feb 17

Good News! A two-month-old COVID-19 patient, the youngest patient in Guangdong, was discharged from hospital in Guangzhou Monday afternoon.

6:43 pm Feb 17

An additional 99 people have tested positive for coronavirus on a cruise ship off the Japan coast, Japanese media said Monday, bringing the total number of positive cases on Diamond Princess to 454.

6:30 pm Feb 17

A research fellow from Wuhan Institute of Virology denied having accused the Institute Director Wang Yanyi of leaking the coronavirus and vowed legal actions on rumormongers.

5:25 pm Feb 17

Progress in fighting COVID-19: Shennongjia, a county in #Hubei, the epicenter of the coronavirus, sees zero infection on Monday, the first one in the province, after the remaining two patients were discharged from the hospital this morning.

5:12 pm Feb 17

CPPCC National Committee convened a meeting in Beijing on Mon, deliberating the postponement of the annual session of top political advisory body.

4:43 pm Feb 17

One more person on board Japanese cruise ship was diagnosed with coronavirus, taking the tally of infection cases to 356, nearly 10 percent of the total on onboard: Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

3:51 pm Feb 17

Chloroquine phosphate, a medicine that has been in the market for many years, has proven effective in treating COVID19 and shows positive clinical effects: China’s Ministry of Science and Technology.

1:09 pm Feb 17

Xinxian county in Henan Province to prolong quarantine period for people traveling to Wuhan or contacting with Wuhan residents from 14 days to 21 days, after discovering 2 unusual COVID19 cases. One of the new cases was diagnosed 34 days after returning from Wuhan, and another 94 days after coming in contact with a Wuhan resident. Both infection sources are unknown.

12:20 pm Feb 17

Taiwan adds two novel coronavirus infection cases with first death

12:11 pm Feb 17

161 people, including four children, of the 331 coronavirus patients in Shanghai have been discharged from hospital after recovery, as of Monday morning, making the city’s current COVID19 cure rate nearly 50%: media

10:58 am Feb 17

Another hard-hit Chinese city in the coronavirus outbreak, Xiaogan in Central China's Hubei Province, has banned residents from stepping out of their homes and said violators would be detained for a maximum of 10 days.

09:30 am Feb 17

1,200 military medical personnel and supplies arrived in Wuhan on Mon via eight different types of military transport aircraft including domestically developed Y-20.

09:28 am Feb 17

1,425 patients were discharged from hospital on Sunday, making it the fifth consecutive day to see the number of cured patients leaving hospital exceeding 1,000. As of Mon morning, a total of 10,844 cases have been cured and discharged from hospital across China.

 

[JSCh]

NEWS * 18 FEBRUARY 2020
When will the coronavirus outbreak peak? | Nature
Officials want to know but predictions vary wildly, from now to after hundreds of millions of people are infected.

David Cyranoski

Coronavirus infections in China continue to swell by thousands a day, prompting epidemiologists to estimate when the outbreak will peak. Some suggest the climax, when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point, will happen any time now. Others say that it is months away and that the virus will infect millions — or in one estimate hundreds of millions — of people first.

Public health officials want to know roughly when the peak will be — and how many will be infected — so that they can prepare hospitals and know when it will be safe to lift travel restrictions. Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic, and several other nearby cities have been on lockdown since late January.

Although peak predictions can be illuminating, some researchers warn that accuracy is difficult to achieve, especially when the data used in models are incomplete. “If you revise your predictions every week to say that the outbreak will peak in a week or two, eventually you will be correct,” says Brian Labus, who works on disease surveillance at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Optimistic scenario
On 11 February, Zhong Nanshan, a prominent Chinese physician leading a panel of experts helping to control the outbreak, said that the coronavirus will possibly peak by the end of February. Zhong, who is famous for discovering the SARS virus, said the situation had improved with government control measures, such as travel restrictions and extended holidays, although he admitted that it was still a “difficult period” for Wuhan.

So far, more than 70,000 people have been confirmed to have the disease, now known as COVID-19, in China. But many scientists assume that the number of cases is higher than is being reported. They suspect that China has too few diagnostic tests and health-care workers to confirm all cases. Some scientists also wonder whether Zhong is just trying to reassure people, given the outbreak’s impact on the economy and society.

At least one model aligns with Zhong’s estimate. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, says the prediction is based on an estimate that one infected person in Wuhan was, on average, infecting between 1.5 and 4.5 others — a measure known as the virus’s effective reproduction number, or R — before the travel restrictions were introduced on 23 January. Funk estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected.

Funk posted the analysis, which has not been peer-reviewed, on his institute’s website on 12 February. But he says that since it was done, a decline in the number of new cases and deaths in Wuhan suggests that infections might have already peaked. (More than 14,000 new cases were reported on 13 February, but the bump was due to authorities changing the way cases are diagnosed and not a true spike).

Worst case
Some researchers find such predictions overly optimistic. People in most Chinese cities started returning to work last week after an extended public-holiday period — opening up the possibility of new chains of transmission, says Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan.

Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.

Nishiura says he has submitted a paper describing the model and its prediction to the preprint server medRxiv. To make such a prediction, he says that his team considered the transmission potential inherent to the new virus — the basic reproduction number known as R0, which is related to R, although it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible to infection. The team estimates the R0 is between 1.5-2.

He says that his model presents a relatively simplistic outlook because it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible. It also reflects the view that many people who have been infected are asymptomatic or not unwell enough to seek medical treatment. If that is the case, the current number of reported cases massively underestimates the number of people infected, he says.

Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, says that Nishiura’s estimates are feasible. The community has no immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 so “it will sweep through,” he says.

Leung says that while those estimates sound extreme, it’s still not clear how deadly the virus is. The latest calculation of the fatality rate, in a paper published by Zhong on 9 February, suggests that there are about 1.36 deaths per hundred cases. But that number is probably too high because the authors did not consider less severe cases. (Outside China, two deaths have been reported in 500 cases.)

Quarantine measures
Leung says it's also unclear what effect, if any, that control measures, such as travel bans and quarantining people, have had on the timing and severity of the peak. Nishiura and Funk say their models excluded these measures because their efficacy is uncertain.

Many scientists say that control measures might not, ultimately, decrease the number of people infected. But they could extend the time taken for the epidemic to peak, by slowing transmission, says Leung.

Reducing the number of people who get infected at the peak is important, says Leung. If everyone gets sick at the same time, “the entire society grinds to a halt,” he says. “Health services will be overwhelmed and people will die.”

 

[JSCh]

More outbreak details emerge as COVID-19 cases top 70,000 | Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy: University of Minnesota
Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News
Feb 17, 2020

As cases passed the 70,000 mark today, China published a detailed picture of its COVID-19 outbreak, which now shows signs of declining; however, officials warned cases could rebound as people return to work and school after the extended Lunar New Year break.

In other developments, the number of infected people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan continued to soar, as infections were detected in 14 Americans who were just evacuated from the ship.

Large epi study notes 14% severe rate
China's report on the outbreak's epidemiologic patterns covers all COVID-19 cases reported through Feb 11 and appears in the China CDC Weekly, a publication that is similar to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The team analyzed more than 72,000 patient records, of which 44,672 were lab-confirmed cases, 16,186 suspected cases, 10,567 clinically diagnosed cases, and 889 asymptomatic cases. Of the confirmed cases, 80.9% cases were mild, and the vast majority (86.6%) of confirmed cases were in people ages 30 to 79 years old.

About 14% of the illnesses were severe, which included pneumonia and shortness of breath, and about 5% have critical disease, marked by respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure. The overall case fatality rate was 2.3%, and of 1,023 deaths included in the study, the majority were in people age 60 and older or those with underlying medical conditions.

Epidemiologic curve analysis shows a common source pattern in December, which shifted to a propagated source pattern starting in early January, which the researchers said might reflect several zoonotic events at the outbreak market in Wuhan. Around Jan 23 to Jan 26, the epidemic peaked and began to decline, according to the data.

Though 1,716 healthcare workers were infected in the outbreak, 5 of them fatally, there is no evidence of super-spreader events in healthcare facilities caring for COVID-19 cases, the group wrote. Those events were hallmarks of outbreaks involving severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). So far, it's not clear if the difference is due to the virus or prevention tactics, they noted.

China's massive control measures, which started on Jan 23 with limiting travel in and out of Wuhan, slowed China's epidemic and its spread to the rest of the world, the authors note. But they warn that officials need to prepare for the epidemic to rebound when huge numbers of people in China return to work and school.

Caution urged in interpreting outbreak decline
At a media telebriefing today, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said the new data from China gives health officials a better understanding about the affected age range, the severity of the disease, and the mortality rate, which he said helps the WHO deliver evidence-based guidance to countries.

However, he said the report's indication of a decline in cases should be interpreted with caution. "Trends can change as new populations are affected," he said. "It's too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table."

Tedros said relatively few cases have been reported in children, but more research is needed to understand why. Though the new report fills in some gaps for understanding the outbreak, others remain. He added that the international expert team is now on the ground in China to answer more questions and to get an even clearer picture of the outbreak.

China's National Health Commission today reported 2,048 new cases, a slight increase from the 2,009 it reported yesterday. It also reported 628 fewer severe cases as it adjusts those totals and 105 more deaths. The country's totals now stand at 70,548 cases, 10,644 severe cases, and 1,770 deaths.

Cruise ship cases grow by 99
Japan's health ministry today reported that 99 more people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship have tested positive, raising the total to 454. The ship has been quarantined in Yokohama port since Feb 3.

Meanwhile, the US State Department said it evacuated more than 300 US citizens and their family members who had been on the Diamond Princess, and all were evaluated by medical officials from the Department of Health and Human Services and deemed asymptomatic and fit to fly.

However, between getting off the ship and heading for the airport in Japan, US officials learned that 14 passengers who had been tested 2 or 3 days earlier were positive for COVID-19. They were moved to a specialized part of the aircraft and isolated according to standard protocol.

The whole group flew back to the United States, with passengers slated to arrive at either Travis Air Force Base in California or Joint Base San Antonio in Texas.

In other developments in Japan, the country's health ministry reported two more local cases, one involving a health ministry official who worked as a liaison on the Diamond Princess and the other a nurse who worked at a hospital near Tokyo, where she took care of a woman in her 80s who died from the disease, Kyodo News reported today.

Singapore, UAE report more cases
Singapore's health ministry today reported 2 more cases, raising its total to 77. The patients include an individual who was evacuated from Wuhan on Feb 9 and a person who is a contact of an earlier case.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) health ministry yesterday reported 1 more COVID-19 case, which involves a 37-year-old Chinese man. The infection brings the UAE's total to 9, of whom 3 have recovered and 6 are still receiving treatment, 1 of them in an intensive care unit.

Gene analysis debunks lab-made claims
In a preprint publication yesterday, an international group of virologists detailed the evidence that the virus that causes COVID-19 is not lab made or artificially manipulated.

Based on their analysis of the genome, they described its notable features and scenarios that likely led to its evolution. They proposed two scenarios: natural selection in a host animal before the virus jumped to humans, or natural selection in humans following transmission from animals to people.

They also looked at whether selection during passage in culture could have produced the same genetic features they observed.

 

[JSCh]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/22 21:15:00 Last Updated: 2020/2/19 6:32:32


08:01 Feb 19

136 new deaths 1,749 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 74,185 with 2,004 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 18.

06:27 Feb 19

Hubei Province reported 1,693 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 18, with 132 new deaths and 1,266 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 61,682, with 9,128 recovered and 1,921 dead.

00:28 am Feb 19

Japanese Prime Minister ShinzoAbe becomes a hot topic on Chinese social media as a reporter of kyodo english was quarantined for contacting COVID19 patient. Netizens are discussing whether Abe would be quarantined as well.

00:24 am Feb 19

Central govt's work group to guide epidemic prevention and control work in Wuhan visited Liu Zhiming's family members on Tuesday, sending condolences to the family. Liu, director of Wuhan Wuchang Hospital and an expert in neurosurgery, died Tuesday morning.

11:52 pm Feb 18

Zhao Kezhi, Minister of Public Security on Tuesday stressed upholding national and social stability whilst battling against COVID-19; and banned over unduly and violent law enforcement during the process.

11:15 pm Feb 18

Patrolling volunteers for epidemic control in a Hubei county are criticized for slapping a local resident and destroying their mahjong table after failing to persuade the family members to stop gathering. Local officials later visited the family twice for apology.

10:41 pm Feb 18

Wang Shiwen, head of local health commission in Ezhou, a city in Central China's Hubei, which is being under city lockdown due to COVID19, was proposed to be removed from the position: Hubei Daily.

10:26 pm Feb 18

323 people suffering from severe mental disorder have been infected with #COVID19 in 17 provinces of China, with 43 suspected cases. The patients are mainly located in epicenter Wuhan and other cities in #Hubei Province, including Xiaogan and Huanggang.

10:24 pm Feb 18

Exclusive: It's highly likely that there had been 104 patients infected with COVID19 in epicenter #Wuhan and Central #China's #Hubei Province as of December 31, 2019: Chinese CDC research paper.

09:36 pm Feb 18

Production of favipiravir, first antiviral drug approved by Chinese authorities to treat Covid19, is well in progress. The drug is expected to hit the market later in February with the first batch estimated to reach 100,000 pills: reports.

09:34 pm Feb 18

Hubei has ample grain reserves that can feed the whole province, the epicenter of COVID19, for a whole year. The national reserves are enough for half a year of consumption. Grain donations from other provinces also meet local people's diversified demands: official.

09:29 pm Feb 18

The impact of the COVID19 epidemic on China's economy is temporary. With its efforts, China can still achieve its established economic and social development goals this year, Xi said during the phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.

09:25 pm Feb 18

Chinese President Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, expressing appreciation for the support of France to China amid the COVID19 outbreak.

08:34 pm Feb 18

A State Council meeting on Tuesday decided on reduction of social security costs for employers in a phased manner and postponing payment of housing funds by employers as part of broad-based efforts to stabilize businesses and steady the jobs market.

07:42 pm Feb 18

Beijing's first recovered patient from COVID19 donated her blood for plasma extraction to cure other patients.

07:11 pm Feb 18

Xi stressed that the British side has sent materials to support China to fight the COVID19 outbreak, which showcases the friendship between the two countries and peoples.

07:10 pm Feb 18

Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the phone with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday, during which Xi thanked Queen Elizabeth II and Johnson for the condolences offered by them to China in fighting the COVID19.

06:46 pm Feb 18

10 Japanese journalists from Kyodo News, including one correspondent for the Prime Minister's Office, quarantined at home since Monday. The driver of the bus they rode on was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Sunday

06:11 pm Feb 18

88 new infected cases with COVID19 at the DiamondPrincess cruise ship were confirmed on Wednesday. 65 of them have no symptoms. A total of 542 infected people have been confirmed contracting coronavirus on the ship: Yomiuri Shimbun.

05:20 pm Feb 18

Human-to-human transmission has not yet been curbed in Wuhan. Two issues need to be dealt with at the current stage: to separate normal persons from patients; and separate COVID19 patients from flu patients: # respiratory expert ZhongNanshan


04:12 pm Feb 18

3 new infected cases with COVID19 were confirmed in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan on Tuesday. One of them is a teenager whose father is an infected male surgeon working at the #SaiseikaiAridaHospital. There are total 10 infected people in the hospital: Yomiuri Shimbun


02:56 pm Feb 18

Clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID19 patients have begun at Wuhan University People's Hospital on small-scale. So far, 20 patients saw their symptoms ease significantly after the use of hydroxychloroquine: reports

02:08 pm Feb 18

Japanese authorities said they have concluded collecting samples of the 3,711 people quarantined in the DiamondPrincess cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan. People who test negative are likely to be allowed to deboard on Wednesday.

09:51 am Feb 18

The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases outside Hubei Province has fallen to double digits after two weeks of decline.

 

[JSCh]

MODEL INDICATES CURRENT COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN CHINA ALREADY DECLINING
16 February 2020 NEWS

A mathematical model set up by an ad-hoc group of scientists indicates the number of currently infected novel coronavirus cases in China began a pattern of decline as of February 12. Currently infected cases are those confirmed to be ill with the virus who have not yet recovered or died.

When the model’s data was updated February 13 as the result of a change in Hubei province’s reporting, the model’s predicted date for the start of the decline jumped back.

“Before, our model indicated the decline would not start until February 16,” says Dr Yi Zou, who is based in the Department of Health and Environmental Sciences at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

“So, when we updated the data going into the model that creates the model’s parameters to capture the new way Hubei province is reporting, we were surprised and hopeful to see it indicates the decline has already begun,” he says.

“The figures created from the model February 13-15 from previous-day data show that the daily number of cured cases and deceased cases is now higher than the newly infected, leading to a decrease in the number currently infected.”

Dr Zou explains that as of February 13, Hubei province is reporting clinically diagnosed cases as “confirmed” even if they have not been confirmed by RNA test kits.

“In our understanding, Hubei province now rapidly confirms suspected cases and adds those to the confirmed cases, which explains the sudden increase in their confirmed cases.”

Before, Dr Zou’s team used confirmed cases as data the model uses to calculate its parameters. The new data uses the combination of confirmed and suspected cases for all dates in the model, recalculating the cumulative total for all dates starting at the disease outbreak.

While adding suspected cases to confirmed cases causes the data to be more “messy,” the model is still a good fit, Dr Zou says.

“The data reported from across China the last three days still fits our model fairly well. According to the model, currently infected cases have started declining,” Dr Zou says.

“This pattern would be hopeful, since each day there are fewer people who infect others, and the burden of taking care of sick people should decline,” he says.

“However, as always, a mathematical model is not a direct window to the future. If factors that affect the trend change or if the data on current cases is underreported, the model’s indications will not be accurate.”

A few days ago, Dr Zou made the same caveats when his team’s model predicted a drop to nearly no new, confirmed cases starting February 23. With the model’s updated parameters, the data so far remains on trend for that forecast.

He explains that he and others in the team selected a logistic equation model to study the novel coronavirus outbreak because it is commonly used for population dynamics and epidemiological analysis.

“Our thought was that this model might reflect the dynamics of this outbreak – how infection behaves, what processes drive it and what might constrain it, for example,” he says.

Dr Zou is one of four researchers from universities in China – three from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and one from Southern University of Science and Technology – who publish figures derived from the model on a website they set up for use by scientists, journalists and other researchers.

The website includes open access to data from across China on the novel coronavirus outbreak and daily statistical modeling, both for the country as a whole and for its individual provinces.

The data is both as current as possible and from authoritative sources, Dr. Zou says.

“All data and information are automatically captured every 30 minutes through a background program to ensure timeliness,” he says.

“The data and information sources include government websites at all levels and media such as People's Daily and China Central Television to ensure that information is open, transparent and traceable.

“Our volunteer team members perform the data processing, modeling, visualisation and publishing tasks using R language.”

Other researchers can download data packages for their own data modeling and research on the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Besides the data and models available both in Chinese and English, the website also includes, in Chinese-only, information from news agencies and evidence-based answers to myths and rumours.

In addition to Dr Zou, other volunteers responsible for development of the website include Dr Peng Zhao and Dr Lei Han, also of XJTLU’s Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, and Dr Xiaoxiang Wang from Southern University of Science and Technology.

The website includes a language toggle from Chinese to English.

Above: Figure created February 15 showing currently infected novel coronavirus cases declining (orange line)

The website’s WeChat platform QR code is below:

By Tamara Kaup​

Model indicates current COVID-19 infections in China already declining | News | Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU)

2020-02-19: Epidemic Mitigation Time Forecast (Covid-19)
2020-02-19
Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the country

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2020-02-19: Epidemic Mitigation Time Forecast (Covid-19) - Covid-19: Epidemic Reports