aryan2007
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At odds: Majority of bookies says nay to Modi
Punters Bet On BJP Getting Less Than 90 Seats
Tapash Talukdar & Sachin Dave AHMEDABAD/MUMBAI
ON THE eve of the first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections, the electoral mood has swung against Narendra Modi and BJP, as sussed out by the states cash-rich punters. When reports last came in on Monday, the odds on Modi getting a majority at the hustings had risen to 40 paise on a rupee as against 25 paise a week ago and 15 paise when the campaign started. Simply put, this means if one lay a bet of Re 1 on BJP winning 92 seats or more, he would profit 40 paise instead of 25 paise. Clearly, the odds are stacked up against Modi. Only about a week ago, it was projected that Modi would win about 100 seats. But after Sonias rally and Modis controversial Sohrabuddin statement, we expect BJP to get less than 90 seats. The betting rates have gone in the favour of Congress too, said a bookie operating out of Mumbai.
According to Surat-based bookie, Jignesh Zaveri: Bookies all over Gujarat believe that the chief minister may not be able to get more than 90 seats. So, they are offering more returns on Modi winning less number of seats.
However, the bookies still assign a larger probability to a Modi victory compared to a Congress majority. Though the odds of a Congress majority have moved sharply from 5/1 to 3.8/1, these figures still indicate a pro-Modi outcome. Bets worth Rs 4,000 crore
BETS worth an estimated Rs 4,000 crore have been placed on the election results with Gujarats punters contributing the biggest chunk. Bookies from Maharashtra and Delhi too were chipping in.
If one goes by what Mumbai and Gujarat-based bookies say, bets worth over Rs 250 crore were laid in the past three days, mostly in Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Surat and Mumbai. The figure is, however, expected to rise even further through December 16.
Most people who are betting on the election results now believe that of the 182 seats in the Assembly, the Congress alone could walk away with 80-plus seats, leaving the final outcome of the hustings to the decision of smaller parties. Last time, the party won 51 seats against the BJPs 126.
Tuesdays voting in crucial regions like Saurashtra, south Gujarat and Kutch would give the decisive figure for government formation.
Incidentally, the satta market at Rs 4,000 crore puts to shame the Rs 800 crore laid on the T20 World Cup and Rs 400 crore on the ongoing Indo-Pak test cricket series.
There are about 40,000 bookies just in Gujarat and Maharashtra for whom the test cricket has taken a backseat. Not just that, there are many stock brokers who are just concentrating on Gujarat elections rather than the stock market, asserts Ashok Doshi, an Ahmedabad-based bookie.
Explains Mr Doshi, The system of laying bets is very simple and the rates are sent to all those who want to invest by an SMS. For instance, if you lay a bet of Rs 10,000 on Congress winning 70 seats (according to the old rate) and if the party wins 70 seats, you will get Rs 8,000 on your investment.
According to the bookies, it is difficult for BJP to get a simple majority after recent developments. But if BJP does get a simple majority (91-100 seats), the bookies could make a profit of about 5% more than the amount invested. The margin was about 30% before Modi made the faux pas and Sonia Gandhi visited Gujarat, says Mr Zaveri.
Punters Bet On BJP Getting Less Than 90 Seats
Tapash Talukdar & Sachin Dave AHMEDABAD/MUMBAI
ON THE eve of the first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections, the electoral mood has swung against Narendra Modi and BJP, as sussed out by the states cash-rich punters. When reports last came in on Monday, the odds on Modi getting a majority at the hustings had risen to 40 paise on a rupee as against 25 paise a week ago and 15 paise when the campaign started. Simply put, this means if one lay a bet of Re 1 on BJP winning 92 seats or more, he would profit 40 paise instead of 25 paise. Clearly, the odds are stacked up against Modi. Only about a week ago, it was projected that Modi would win about 100 seats. But after Sonias rally and Modis controversial Sohrabuddin statement, we expect BJP to get less than 90 seats. The betting rates have gone in the favour of Congress too, said a bookie operating out of Mumbai.
According to Surat-based bookie, Jignesh Zaveri: Bookies all over Gujarat believe that the chief minister may not be able to get more than 90 seats. So, they are offering more returns on Modi winning less number of seats.
However, the bookies still assign a larger probability to a Modi victory compared to a Congress majority. Though the odds of a Congress majority have moved sharply from 5/1 to 3.8/1, these figures still indicate a pro-Modi outcome. Bets worth Rs 4,000 crore
BETS worth an estimated Rs 4,000 crore have been placed on the election results with Gujarats punters contributing the biggest chunk. Bookies from Maharashtra and Delhi too were chipping in.
If one goes by what Mumbai and Gujarat-based bookies say, bets worth over Rs 250 crore were laid in the past three days, mostly in Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Surat and Mumbai. The figure is, however, expected to rise even further through December 16.
Most people who are betting on the election results now believe that of the 182 seats in the Assembly, the Congress alone could walk away with 80-plus seats, leaving the final outcome of the hustings to the decision of smaller parties. Last time, the party won 51 seats against the BJPs 126.
Tuesdays voting in crucial regions like Saurashtra, south Gujarat and Kutch would give the decisive figure for government formation.
Incidentally, the satta market at Rs 4,000 crore puts to shame the Rs 800 crore laid on the T20 World Cup and Rs 400 crore on the ongoing Indo-Pak test cricket series.
There are about 40,000 bookies just in Gujarat and Maharashtra for whom the test cricket has taken a backseat. Not just that, there are many stock brokers who are just concentrating on Gujarat elections rather than the stock market, asserts Ashok Doshi, an Ahmedabad-based bookie.
Explains Mr Doshi, The system of laying bets is very simple and the rates are sent to all those who want to invest by an SMS. For instance, if you lay a bet of Rs 10,000 on Congress winning 70 seats (according to the old rate) and if the party wins 70 seats, you will get Rs 8,000 on your investment.
According to the bookies, it is difficult for BJP to get a simple majority after recent developments. But if BJP does get a simple majority (91-100 seats), the bookies could make a profit of about 5% more than the amount invested. The margin was about 30% before Modi made the faux pas and Sonia Gandhi visited Gujarat, says Mr Zaveri.
