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CHINA, PAKISTAN AND MUSHARRAF
By Bhasker Roy
Friday, February 8, 2008
Although the Chinese leaders and policymakers have been forced by India's economic development and vibrant international relations to acknowledge New Delhi's position in regional and international platforms, Pakistan continues to remain its main centre in South Asia.
Beijing has invested its most in Pakistan for very pertinent reasons. China is to refer to North Korea relations as lips to teeth. Pakistan was its time tested ally and friend and an example of relations between two countries. While these expressions have changed along with new post cold war global alliances and dynamics, the importance of Pakistan to China has not diminished. If fact, it has increased in terms of China's security calculations including energy security.
In the last decade, China helped Pakistan as a stand alone nuclear power, invested $ 2.2 billion in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port (GDSP), and helped it in trying to maintain military parity with India. Traditionally, the Chinese military sales have been at "friendship prices" and out right assistance. The Gwader Port is a gift. The F-17 Thunder advanced fighter aircraft being jointly built and produced at Kamra is basically Chinese mode.
The Chinese do not easily forget old friends and do pardon some indiscretions on the part of the friend. Beijing gratefully remembers that it was Pakistan which facilitated the secret talks between China and the USA leading to establishment of diplomatic relations. Pakistan is also a security frontier for China in more ways than one.
The China-Pak special relations were built by the leaders of the two countries, especially the anti- India disposition of the Pakistani leaders and army, which fitted eminently with China's South Asia strategy with a common cause.
The periodic Pak-US alliance has been both useful to Beijing and, at times, an irritant. During the Cold War the three formed an anti-Soviet axis. After the demise of the Soviet Union, China saw the US interest in Pakistan detrimental to its security. During his visit to Pakistan in 1996, Chinese President Jiang Zemin clearly indicated that USA should not meddle in South Asia. The message was clear to Pakistan also.
Even after removing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharrif, Gen. Musharraf maintained excellent relationship with China. Following the US attack on Taliban in Afghanistan Musharraf is reported to have made a secret visit to Beijing only for a few hours to consult with the Chinese leaders.
In a rather surprising, but understandable reaction, the China Radio International (CRI) broadcast a Hindi Commentary on January 18, that Musharraf's upcoming four-nation tour of Europe from January 20 was to try and legitimize his presidency, try and dispel western perception that he was not doing enough to fight Islamic militancy and terrorism, and the country may be heading towards instability. The commentary took note of undesirable development under Musharraf's rule last year like dismissal of the Pak Supreme Court Chief Justice and other judges, virtual martial law, terrorists being allowed to occupy the Lal Masjid, and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
read rest of CHINA, PAKISTAN AND MUSHARRAF
The key point of this piece is further down. The Chinese do not want the US and other Western powers to apply pressure to Musharraf to democratize. They are also opposed to open US intervention in Pakistan. This makes sense, since China does not appreciate US pressure on China to democratize, it is not surprising that it does not want its allies pressured to democratize. Likewise, China which has been historically sensitive to US troops on its borders, does not want US troops in Pakistan.
Personally, I think the US is probably ignoring this, and the US probably should not be ignoring this. After all, the US might not profit from a conflict with its biggest creditor. Also, Pakistan is a lot closer to China than it to the US. Finally, the Pakistani military may decide that the Chinese, telling them what they want to hear, are more promising allies than the US which is not.
So this is an argument that the US should not go in for a highly visible troop presence in Pakistan. On the other hand hand, the Chinese may not be enthusiastic about Pakistani detente with India, which I believe is in Pakistan's, and the US's, interest. So I don't advocate tying our policy to Chinese policy. But it is probably a pretty good idea to be aware of what the Chinese policy toward Pakistan is, and why they think that it is in their interests. I do not find much discussion of China's attitudes to Pakistan here in the US. It would be a bad idea to blunder into a confrontation with China because the US ignored it.
Remember Jenkin's Ear: China and Pakistan
By Bhasker Roy
Friday, February 8, 2008
Although the Chinese leaders and policymakers have been forced by India's economic development and vibrant international relations to acknowledge New Delhi's position in regional and international platforms, Pakistan continues to remain its main centre in South Asia.
Beijing has invested its most in Pakistan for very pertinent reasons. China is to refer to North Korea relations as lips to teeth. Pakistan was its time tested ally and friend and an example of relations between two countries. While these expressions have changed along with new post cold war global alliances and dynamics, the importance of Pakistan to China has not diminished. If fact, it has increased in terms of China's security calculations including energy security.
In the last decade, China helped Pakistan as a stand alone nuclear power, invested $ 2.2 billion in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port (GDSP), and helped it in trying to maintain military parity with India. Traditionally, the Chinese military sales have been at "friendship prices" and out right assistance. The Gwader Port is a gift. The F-17 Thunder advanced fighter aircraft being jointly built and produced at Kamra is basically Chinese mode.
The Chinese do not easily forget old friends and do pardon some indiscretions on the part of the friend. Beijing gratefully remembers that it was Pakistan which facilitated the secret talks between China and the USA leading to establishment of diplomatic relations. Pakistan is also a security frontier for China in more ways than one.
The China-Pak special relations were built by the leaders of the two countries, especially the anti- India disposition of the Pakistani leaders and army, which fitted eminently with China's South Asia strategy with a common cause.
The periodic Pak-US alliance has been both useful to Beijing and, at times, an irritant. During the Cold War the three formed an anti-Soviet axis. After the demise of the Soviet Union, China saw the US interest in Pakistan detrimental to its security. During his visit to Pakistan in 1996, Chinese President Jiang Zemin clearly indicated that USA should not meddle in South Asia. The message was clear to Pakistan also.
Even after removing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharrif, Gen. Musharraf maintained excellent relationship with China. Following the US attack on Taliban in Afghanistan Musharraf is reported to have made a secret visit to Beijing only for a few hours to consult with the Chinese leaders.
In a rather surprising, but understandable reaction, the China Radio International (CRI) broadcast a Hindi Commentary on January 18, that Musharraf's upcoming four-nation tour of Europe from January 20 was to try and legitimize his presidency, try and dispel western perception that he was not doing enough to fight Islamic militancy and terrorism, and the country may be heading towards instability. The commentary took note of undesirable development under Musharraf's rule last year like dismissal of the Pak Supreme Court Chief Justice and other judges, virtual martial law, terrorists being allowed to occupy the Lal Masjid, and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
read rest of CHINA, PAKISTAN AND MUSHARRAF
The key point of this piece is further down. The Chinese do not want the US and other Western powers to apply pressure to Musharraf to democratize. They are also opposed to open US intervention in Pakistan. This makes sense, since China does not appreciate US pressure on China to democratize, it is not surprising that it does not want its allies pressured to democratize. Likewise, China which has been historically sensitive to US troops on its borders, does not want US troops in Pakistan.
Personally, I think the US is probably ignoring this, and the US probably should not be ignoring this. After all, the US might not profit from a conflict with its biggest creditor. Also, Pakistan is a lot closer to China than it to the US. Finally, the Pakistani military may decide that the Chinese, telling them what they want to hear, are more promising allies than the US which is not.
So this is an argument that the US should not go in for a highly visible troop presence in Pakistan. On the other hand hand, the Chinese may not be enthusiastic about Pakistani detente with India, which I believe is in Pakistan's, and the US's, interest. So I don't advocate tying our policy to Chinese policy. But it is probably a pretty good idea to be aware of what the Chinese policy toward Pakistan is, and why they think that it is in their interests. I do not find much discussion of China's attitudes to Pakistan here in the US. It would be a bad idea to blunder into a confrontation with China because the US ignored it.
Remember Jenkin's Ear: China and Pakistan
