What's new

Barred From Farnborough, Russia To Display Su-57, Other Jets At Army 2018

I know something about aviation and the military. Veteran USAF F-111 (Cold War) and F-16 (Desert Storm). Will I do?

The Russians can spin it any way it they want, but the Su-57 program is at least stalled, and the longer it is stalled, institutional inertia is no different than physical inertia, that it will take greater efforts to resume any progress.

Institutions do not like idle money. Same with people -- they cannot be doing nothing. Any project, technological or else, that is not productive will be cancelled at some time down the line. When people inside said stalled program perceives, wrongly or correctly, that the project is in danger of being cancelled, especially when funding is euphemistically said to be 'under review', intellectual productivity drops. Why should they care?

Military projects have a very limited clientele -- the government. It does not matter if it is domestic or foreign, it is still only 'the government'. With a military oriented project, the maker cannot sell his wares to other governments at will. He needs approval from the domestic government and his sales will be tightly controlled. So that still make it only 'the government' as the only client.

I will go out on a limb and say that the the -57 project is essentially -- dead.

While this is true, the government in this analogy may wish to allow this project to be sold externally so that the organisations can recover expenses and maybe even make money that contributes to tax. If they let it die the way you suggest, it puts other military contractors in an uneasy state, fearing any domestic failure would be total project failure. While this is mostly true everywhere in the world, maybe such a costly program like PAKFA, can be recovered and money saved and/or made by exporting the product in a way that doesn't breach confidentiality or threaten origin nation (if and where possible). Of course the issue there will be who will be willing to spend serious money on a platform if the Russians decide to water it down so completely, as making it close to useless for the purchasing nation. But that's neither here nor there. Just speculating on the feasibility of these sorts of decisions. Above is all assuming PAKFA is dead... which I don't believe is true but for the purpose of this post... surely some military projects (even ones that began as domestic gov only) can be redeveloped to find other governments as potential clients.
 
While this is true, the government in this analogy may wish to allow this project to be sold externally so that the organisations can recover expenses and maybe even make money that contributes to tax.
No issues there. However, we are talking about an alleged '5th-gen' or 'stealth' platform. So who else in the world can afford this program? Actually -- more than we think.

Would Russia allow Sukhoi to sell the -57 program to US? Any US defense contractor would love to have the -57 in their portfolio. Russia cannot -- financially -- afford the program but we can. We can even improve on it and make the platform more than the 'alleged' status it is today. So even though we can afford it, the Russian government will not allow such a sale. China, France, the UK, Germany, and a few more European countries would definitely be interested. But this is not the same as allowing Boeing selling upgraded '4th-gen' platforms to allies but having potential adversaries access to Russia's 'stealth' project.

If they let it die the way you suggest, it puts other military contractors in an uneasy state, fearing any domestic failure would be total project failure.
First...Am not suggesting that the Russian government and Sukhoi 'let it die'. We can be %100 assured that both entities want the project to come to a successful conclusion. So I did not 'suggest' anything. I only made an observation based upon my personal experience.

Second...Precisely because of the limited clientele of military oriented projects, all defense contractors knew the risks before they got involved. Defense projects have limited utility and when a project is so specialized like a fighter aircraft or a tank, the benefits of having an assured stream of income because of that limited utility and specialized need by that client weighs on whether to get into defense contracts in the first place.

In the end, defense contracts are subsidiaries of whatever else the company have in its portfolio. Sukhoi also make civilian aircrafts and provides other aviation industry related services. Sukhoi will continue.

I have no problems proven wrong if the -57 project survives AND progresses. The operative word here is 'AND'. Sukhoi cannot continue the R/D on the jet forever. When the F-22 was selected, how it was chosen and the politics involved are for a different debate, Northrop shelved its YF-23 and moved on to something else. Boeing's X-32 program was also shut down. The civilian business world is filled with similar situations. Without an assured stream of income, the money will begin to decline and eventually the board will have to make a hard decision for that project that have no income.

So when I commented/speculated that the -57 project is essentially dead, I was not being 'mean' to or even 'trolling' our Russian forum members. That was a harsh observation that have solid real world support.
 
No I agree with pretty much everything said. Definitely don't think it was mean or trolling either. But just wanted to point out the domestic gov as only client part. Yes Sukhoi will probably not be allowed to sell to groups the Russian government considers "sensitive" for various reasons from getting a close look on the technology used in Su-57 and develop ways to overcome them (if necessary) to reverse engineering and selling copies world-wide (although PRC has refrained from selling sino flankers to keep relations decent on this issue). Still there are other groups interested around the world particularly if the program continues development until after IOC in RuAF. Bringing in "partners" aka investors may be what the program needs.
 
Still there are other groups interested around the world particularly if the program continues development until after IOC in RuAF. Bringing in "partners" aka investors may be what the program needs.
The world have seen the technical difficulties involved in trying to field a comparable 'stealth' fighter to the US. Russia have the technical expertise and the -57 program stalled. China with her rising economy and wealth is still struggling with the J-20. JPN and SKR may enter the '5th-gen' race, but all they have now are concepts. Meanwhile, the US is already well on the way to that '6th-gen' design for both fighter and bomber. Any investor/partner will take a 3-5 yrs hit in resuming the program and make changes to it. Then another 3-5 yrs to test flight a combat ready prototype. That will be a 10 yrs lead advantage to the American '6th-gen' program. Not counting the inevitable upgrades to the F-22 and F-35 to make them more lethal.
 
Russia cannot -- financially -- afford the program but we can.

Government is the only one that can create money out of thin air with government spending. Sure, it causes inflation but who the f cares. The US is 30 trillion in debt because government spends what it cannot collect from taxes. No country is ever short on money, especially in this day and age where money does not exist in physical form like in the past they had to be coins made of metal.

You can see below the federal spending is more than it collects from taxes. So the debt increases to buy more military hardware.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/
 
Last edited:
Difference is that US has reserve currency status that Russia and PRC unfortunately do not. So using similar QE practices can actually catch up to them whereas the US for the foreseeable still has a bottomless money pit to use.
 
Difference is that US has reserve currency status that Russia and PRC unfortunately do not. So using similar QE practices can actually catch up to them whereas the US for the foreseeable still has a bottomless money pit to use.

Not really. Labor cost in Russia is only 15% of labor cost in America. It takes very little money to build a plane in Russia compared to in America.

https://www.google.ca/search?source...ab..2.15.1298.0..0i131k1j0i10k1.0.PBckmLVfsWA

https://www.google.ca/search?ei=QCh...c.1.64.psy-ab..6.3.423...0i13k1.0.8lFKTUv_Tko
 
Back
Top Bottom