Bangladesh’s GDP tops almost all Asian countries amid corona for Premier’s dynamic leadership: Hasan

[Black_cats]

Bangladesh’s GDP tops almost all Asian countries amid corona for Premier’s dynamic leadership: Hasan

Bangladesh’s GDP tops almost all Asian countries amid corona for Premier’s dynamic leadership: Hasan | Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)

www.bssnews.net

DHAKA, Sept 23, 2020 (BSS)- Information Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud today said Bangladesh’s GDP tops almost all countries in Asia even amid the Coronavirus epidemic as the wheels of economy have been kept moving for dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

“As per the record of Asian Development Bank (ADB), the growth of GDP in Bangladesh is 5.2 percent in 2020 while the GDP growth is minus 0.9 in India, minus 0.4 in Pakistan, minus 5.5 in Sri Lanka, 1.8 in China, minus 8 in Thailand, minus 7.3 in the Philippines and minus 6.2 in Singapore,” he said.

The information minister came up with these observations at a view exchange meeting with newsmen at the meeting room of his ministry at Secretariat in the capital.

In the beginning, Hasan praised the journalists for their brave role during the COVID-19 situation and prayed for early recovery of the journalists who are infected with the virus.

The information minister also prayed for eternal peace of the departed souls of those who died due to the virus.

He said many people expressed their apprehensions of having a sorry state of economy, life and livelihood when general leave was declared in the country and everything got stuck due to the Coronavirus.

Many predicted that the country would face a horrible situation in terms of life and livelihood, he added.

But, the information minister said, apprehensions of all including experts at home and abroad have been proved wrong and not a single person died due to starvation for proper leadership and pragmatic steps of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. There has been no dearth of food in the country during the last six and a half months for the financial assistance provided to people and implementation of economic stimulus, he added.

The information minister said it has been possible only for the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. “Premier Sheikh Hasina successfully involved masses in combating the pandemic and also the leaders and workers of Awami League. The leaders and activists of Awami League devoted themselves to combating the epidemic responding to her (Sheikh Hasina) call,” said Hasan, also AL joint general secretary.

Referring to the Premier’s round-the-clock works, he said Sheikh Hasina didn’t sit for a single day during the last six and a half months.

She didn’t only hold meetings of Cabinet or ECNEC, but also held meetings with different district and divisional level administrations regularly for facilitating other works, he added.

The information minister said these works were stopped in many countries, “but it was not stopped in our country”. For this, wheels of the country’s economy keep running.

Hasan said there were criticisms regarding handling of the COVID-19. “But, the situation of Bangladesh in combating COVID-19 is better than other countries. The rate of death among the infected people is 1.4 percent while it is 1.6 percent in India, 2.09 percent in Pakistan, 10.36 percent in the United Kingdom, 9.46 in Belgium, 6.71 percent in Germany and 3 percent in the USA,” he added.

The information minister said the death rate would be less if the people would go for test. “I would like to say that the scale of diagnosis of Coronavirus in Bangladesh almost matches Japan, meaning we are in better position in combating corona,” Hasan added.

 

[bête noire]

“As per the record of Asian Development Bank (ADB), the growth of GDP in Bangladesh is 5.2 percent in 2020 while the GDP growth is minus 0.9 in India, minus 0.4 in Pakistan, minus 5.5 in Sri Lanka, 1.8 in China, minus 8 in Thailand, minus 7.3 in the Philippines and minus 6.2 in Singapore,” he said.

Minus 9.0% for India. Then 8% growth for next year. That means two lost years with negative 1.72% compound growth while Bangladesh will post positive 12.35% of compound growth in the same time. Bangladesh already should take over India in per capita gdp this year and stay that way while creating and widening gap further in the years to come.

 

[Bilal9]

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Minus 9.0% for India. Then 8% growth for next year. That means two lost years with negative 1.72% compound growth while Bangladesh will post positive 12.35% of compound growth in the same time. Bangladesh already should take over India in per capita gdp this year and stay that way while creating and widening gap further in the years to come.

I wonder where that banned Sanghi troll is. His chest beater refutals are too amusing.

'Mera Bharat' is sadly going to be a little less 'Mahaan' now.

But there are ups and downs in every personal and communal entity. Every dog (and pack) has its day.

Better not to let hubris get your goat, work hard and move on with loftier goals in mind.

Also, we should, first and foremost - distance ourselves trade wise from India. Meaning ASAP.

 

[idune]

GDP growth rate now a political number: CPD

CPD casts doubt on BBS growth data for the last year saying it was politically motivated

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Sunday said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has become just a number mismatched with the reality. The think-tank said there is no scope for using the number except for political purposes as the figures are being generated through old, inconsistent and incomplete data. In a virtual media briefing, the CPD claimed that the provisional data used by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) to estimate a 5.24 percent GDP growth in the 2019-20 fiscal year does not reflect the latest economic reality amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The civil society organisation said the economy had been experiencing a slump even before the outbreak of Covid-19, while it registered a negative growth in the last three months of the FY2019-20 due to the pandemic. Against this backdrop, it seems impossible that the overall growth rate would cross 2.5 percent in the last year, according to the CPD.

CPD Senior Research Fellow Dr Towfiqul Islam Khan presented the keynote paper at the programme elaborating on how BBS data differ widely from the economic reality.Quantum index of industrial production (QIIP) for large and medium manufacturing industries dropped 24.5 percent until last April, while exports dipped 51.2 percent in the April-June period. Only 76.8 percent implementation of Annual Development Programme (ADP) also dragged down the year-on-year spending, the CPD economist explained. "Therefore, the provisional GDP growth estimate of the BBS is not realistic," he said.

How can growth in pandemic time be same?
He further said the data of private sector credit growth, import of capital machinery, revenue collection and operating expenditure of the government also do not support the estimated growth.
"For many countries, GDP has shrunk substantially. Pakistan in FY20 is likely to register (-) 0.4% GDP growth. The economy of Vietnam in the January-June period of this year was able to grow by only 1.81 percent," he added.

"In view of the above, even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY2020, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world," said Tawfiq.Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the CPD, said a 5 percent growth requires the economy to grow over 11 percent in previous nine months if it is assumed that 90 percent economic activities continued in the fourth quarter, which is not realistic.And why the g"What changes the economy underwent suddenly that investment rose even during the pandemic? Why growth slowed then even with the heightened investments?" he said.
He added that the government would not require to announce the virus stimulus if investment in industrial sectors and production did not dropped.He did not subscribe to the explanation that the BBS estimate was based on data for nine months till March before the pandemic struck with full force.
"The BBS compared the growth figures with those of the previous years. They did not say that they calculated the July-March figures. If they did they could have an exit route," Prof Mustafizur Rahman said, hoping that the BBS might review its estimate in October calculation when the final figures will be available.
CPD Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun said the BBS report prepared on provisional and inconsistent data does not reflect the coronavirus crisis. Formulating policies for poverty alleviation, minimising inequality and generating employment are not possible if an accurate GDP growth rate remains unavailable.
"Such estimates can send a wrong signal and hinder foreign assistance," she commented.
She said the foreign development partners would reduce their assistance for the country if the government presents manipulated growth rates and gives an impression that the economy is doing well defying the pandemic.
Bangladesh deserves more support from the IMF, but the agency has provided less as the government has anticipated a lower impact of Covid-19 on the economy, she pointed out. Dr Fahmida said growth rate has become merely a number which is used for political purposes. She said the growth rate seems to have just turned into some numbers with political sensitivity to be used as yardsticks for success."The growth numbers have become a fascination for policymakers, which are being used with political motives. These have become political numbers now," Dr Fahmida said.But GDP growth is not just a number, she noted, adding the figure will not deliver anything if the poverty and inequality rates do not fall and jobs are not created. CPD Research Director Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said poverty rate would not have gone up, as evident in many surveys on Covid-19 impacts on livelihood, if per capita income actually rose as claimed by the BBS.The government would not require to come up with cash incentives, relief and extra allocation in social safeties either, he pointed out. "And if the investment remained intact defying the virus fallout the government would not have to declare employment and investment-friendly stimulus packages," he added.
Is the BBS figure based on nine months' data?
The BBS disclosed provisional GDP growth numbers for the last fiscal through its website without mentioning the period of data used to formulate the report, but the officials said the report was prepared with data for the first nine months.Dr Mustafizur Rahman said at the press briefing the BBS would prepare the growth report with the data for nine months if they did it in May, as it usually does. "Since they disclosed the figures in August, we assume they calculated 12 months' data," he added. As the report has no reflection of the Covid period, it would not be sufficient to prepare any programme, project or policy to recover the economy from the Covi-19 shocks.
BBS report is based on old data
More than half of the provisional GDP estimate is not based on credible real time data, said Towfiqul in his presentation.
He said other than industrial, construction and crop sectors, GDP estimates for majority of sectors do not consider real time credible data as there are areas where no surveys took place in a decade or so.
The provisional GDP growth estimate, which did not capture the impacts of Covid-19 and provide a reliable assessment about the actual health of the economy, would not help to formulate any effective policy to tackle the detrimental impacts of the pandemic, Dr Towfiqul observed in his presentation.
Why the stimulus and cash support?
Dr Mustafizur Rahman raised a question about the rationality of announcing stimulus packages worth Tk1,03,000 crore to create an investment-friendly environment if the investment truly increased.
The BBS report has claimed that investments from both the public and private sectors increased in FY2020 compared to the previous fiscal. Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said the BBS claimed the per capita income has increased but the government is providing cash and food support for the people considering a sharp increase in the number of poor people. "Income of the people increased but the number of poor people also increased. How?" asked Moazzem, referring to the BBS data.
Is Bangladesh outlier?
The CPD referred to shrinking growth forecasts in most of countries due to adverse impact of Covid-19.
Towfiqul Islam Khan said, almost all countries, including the UK, USA and Singapore, have experienced deceleration, in varying degrees, in terms of growth performance.
He also said the GDP of Pakistan is likely register a negative growth of 0.4 percent in FY2020.
GDP growth for the economy of Vietnam during Jan-Jun of 2020 was able to grow by only 1.81 percent, he said, adding the GDP of India for the April-June quarter is anticipated to register a significant contraction.
Then what would be actual growth rate?
The CPD earlier projected a 2.5 percent growth for the last fiscal year and the think-tank still sticks to its previous projection. Towfiqul Islam Khan said even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY20, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Dr Mustafizur Rahman said the health of all indicators but remittance was weak before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid-19 has destroyed all of the indicators, the growth figure of 5.24 percent estimated by the BBS is, therefore, unrealistic, he said. It would be very difficult to achieve even 2.5 percent of growth, he added.

GDP growth rate now a political number: CPD

CPD casts doubt on BBS growth data for the last year saying it was politically motivated

tbsnews.net

 

[Bilal9]

Another thing I wanted to point out is (per chart below which was published in "Forbes Magazine" recently) only Bangladesh, Japan and China will have their population halved. Which spells disaster for the math of 'Per capita' GDP for some countries. Especially the rest of South Asia.

Writing is on the wall people...for the longer term...

For us, it means a slow loss of demographic dividend - which means we must work twice as hard to educate and provide vocational skills for our people. Otherwise we will end up like Japan.

And look at Nigeria! Not good...it's going to become a cesspool and an overpopulated crime zone.

Source: Stein Emil Vollset and coauthors, "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study," The Lancet, July 14, 2020. Get the data Created with Datawrapper

 

[Michael Corleone]

Watched this if it matters, I would like to know opinions of others for or against thecase in the video