Bangladesh’s economy to get a huge boost with Padma Bridge completion

[bluesky]

Around 21,300 veh/day (source: Prefeasibility study by JICA in 2005)
The number of years to reach break-even point: 20 years (source: Prefeasibility study by JICA in 2005) But trust me, the Padma bridge will reach the break-even point way earlier. 25 years was expected for the Bangabandhu bridge. However, it reached the break-even point within 12 years (Source: additional chief engineer, RHD).

The total number of motorized 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and 4-wheeler vehicles in BD is only about 3,420,000. Divide it by 365 days of a year. It comes only to 9,500 vehicles per day if all these vehicles of different types keep on moving over the Padma Bridge. But, you are talking about 21,300 vehicles per day. Your arithmetic does not match the reality.

The break even point may not come even after 500 years if the economic activities are not faster.

Sooooo?

https://brta.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/brta.portal.gov.bd/monthly_report/d4d56177_644f_44f8_99c4_3417b3d7b0f4/MV_statistics-bangladesh-march-18.pdf

 

[Beast]

Thank you China!

 

[Black_cats]

The total number of motorized 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and 4-wheeler vehicles in BD is only about 3,420,000. Divide it by 365 days of a year. It comes only to 9,500 vehicles per day if all these vehicles of different types keep on moving over the Padma Bridge. But, you are talking about 21,300 vehicles per day. Your arithmetic does not match the reality.

The break even point may not come even after 500 years if the economic activities are not faster.

Sooooo?

https://brta.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/brta.portal.gov.bd/monthly_report/d4d56177_644f_44f8_99c4_3417b3d7b0f4/MV_statistics-bangladesh-march-18.pdf

Why you had to divide total vehicle by 365 and assuming Padma bridge will follow the logic? What about rest of the vehicles? Plus vehicle increase over time?

Just for info 2005 JICA report is outdated. As of now it is expected it will take 35 years to recover the cost and toll will increase by 10% each year.

I do not have the exact car figure now but will update you later.
Anyway got it:

A feasibility study conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) anticipated that the volume of traffic on the Padma Bridge will reach 21,300 vehicles a day upon the bridge’s opening and 41,600 vehicles a day by 2025.

Padma Bridge - Verdict Traffic

www.roadtraffic-technology.com

However ADB has made a different projection that will give you a more clear picture:

24,000 vehicles to ply using Padma Bridge daily

24,000 vehicles to use Padma Bridge daily

www.daily-sun.com

Report of a survey conducted by Asian Development Bank (ADB) shows movement of above number of vehicles to be taking place after bridge comes into operation.

Of the vehicles, 8,238 will be passenger buses, 10,244 trucks and 5,000 plus microbuses and private cars.

Number of vehicles will hike to 27,800 in 2025, 36,785 in 2030 and 51, 807 in 2040, survey report said.

Conducted in 2009, the survey said movement of vehicles will increase gradually, raising the number to 67,000 by the year 2050.

 

[EasyNow]

The total number of motorized 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and 4-wheeler vehicles in BD is only about 3,420,000. Divide it by 365 days of a year. It comes only to 9,500 vehicles per day if all these vehicles of different types keep on moving over the Padma Bridge. But, you are talking about 21,300 vehicles per day. Your arithmetic does not match the reality.

The break even point may not come even after 500 years if the economic activities are not faster.

Sooooo?

https://brta.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/brta.portal.gov.bd/monthly_report/d4d56177_644f_44f8_99c4_3417b3d7b0f4/MV_statistics-bangladesh-march-18.pdf

Your methodology is wrong.

You don't divide by total number of cars in the country - many cars will never go on that bridge. But thousands of vehicles will use that bridge several times a week, maybe several times a day even.

 

[Han-Tang]

there's a saying in Chinese： if you want to be rich，first build more roads （and bridge）.

 

[bluesky]

Why you had to divide total vehicle by 365 and assuming Padma bridge will follow the logic? What about rest of the vehicles? Plus vehicle increase over time?

Do not talk dumb. Read the other post, someone said the daily vehicle will be more than 21, 000 and my calculation shows it is only 9,000 vehicles daily even if all the BD vehicles go over your Padma. Why it is wrong?

Tell me when the daily number of vehicles with such an weak economy will reach 21,000. Will it not take more than 500 years to achieve? Do not please repeat JICA. JICA is not a stupid BD organization. It is part of Japan govt. So, someone in BD is using this name to propagate his personal agenda.

Like all other projects, Padma will be another very large white elephant project. After all, BD people love to accomplish only some prestige projects with name values.

Better, use money to industrialize the country. How about producing sewing needles for the tailoring machines used in the garments? Ohhh! You guys will then lose your important prestige, isn't it?

 

[Landmine]

The total number of motorized 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and 4-wheeler vehicles in BD is only about 3,420,000. Divide it by 365 days of a year. It comes only to 9,500 vehicles per day if all these vehicles of different types keep on moving over the Padma Bridge. But, you are talking about 21,300 vehicles per day. Your arithmetic does not match the reality.

Oh my God! I have never seen a traffic forecast calculations like this. For your information, the traffic forecast is done by origin-destination analysis. Not the dumb way you just showed (I have lost all my respect on you after seeing such a calculation method). I guess yearly registration means total vehicle (considering each vehicle needs to register one in a year). If I have a car, I will drive almost every day not just once a year. so you divide the whole traffic by 365 considering the owner will drive once in a year, oh my God! RIP traffic engineering!

For your reference, the traffic engineer does not follow your stupid methodology.

Sooooo?

So, your claim is a pure bullshit!

Do not talk dumb. Read the other post, someone said the daily vehicle will be more than 21, 000 and my calculation shows it is only 9,000 vehicles daily even if all the BD vehicles go over your Padma. Why it is wrong?

Please show me some reference to calculate daily traffic based on your way! I need to learn! It will cut my research time in half.

Can anything be worse than that, Good Lord! Please study!

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

Yes, the connection will benefit the southwest, but it is useless to predict something like 2.5 percentage point GDP growth. This thing did not happen after the Jamuna bridge was built.

By the way, Mawa point was less important for communication comparing to Aricha point. The GoB decided to choose Mawa for the PM's personal interest. Even then, I would say, instead of borrowing from internal sources or borrowing more money from the foreign sources for other projects, the GoB should have waited a few more decades before the economy matured.

GoB has self-financed this bridge only in name. It borrowed money then for other projects. So, it is self-flattering to claim Padma was built by the country's own money.

How many vehicles do you expect the bridge will carry every day? Will the users pay back the money in the next hundred years? Ferries would have sufficed.

You can not divert funds from another project, that is simply made up nonsense...



It's not a corner store that you take money out of the register to buy a new pair of flip flops whenever you want.


Foreign lenders don't hand you the money over, they disburse small packages as and when required and they religiously monitor the spending.


Every dime must be accounted for, you cannot breach the terms of lending and use the money for another project.



In Bangladesh, it comes ADP (annual development programme) each project gets a quarterly spending package and a enquiry is launched for overspending or underutilizing the available funds.


If the plan for this quarter is to lay 10 spans, then you only get funds for laying 10 spans, nothing less, nothing more.....



Whose funds were diverted to make Padma bridge ? Which project from which lender ?



The Chinese are dumb and blind to let us misuse their funds ? Or is JICA blind ? Nevermind they never disburse all the money.



You cannot shift 3.3 billion USD around without the lender knowing and which other project has such money lying around ? That project or those projects should be on hold right now, if we go with your theory.

 

[Michael Corleone]

The break even point may not come even after 500 years if the economic activities are not faster

I mean you’re pretty much arguing against your case now

 

[Destranator]

You cannot shift 3.3 billion USD around without the lender knowing and which other project has such money lying around ? That project or those projects should be on hold right now, if we go with your theory.

hush...hush...don't let BAF or FB defence pages hear this otherwise they will start blaming Padma Bridge for not procuring fighters now that the Covid excuse is losing steam due to imminent vaccination.

 

[Black_cats]

Do not talk dumb. Read the other post, someone said the daily vehicle will be more than 21, 000 and my calculation shows it is only 9,000 vehicles daily even if all the BD vehicles go over your Padma. Why it is wrong?

Tell me when the daily number of vehicles with such an weak economy will reach 21,000. Will it not take more than 500 years to achieve? Do not please repeat JICA. JICA is not a stupid BD organization. It is part of Japan govt. So, someone in BD is using this name to propagate his personal agenda.

Like all other projects, Padma will be another very large white elephant project. After all, BD people love to accomplish only some prestige projects with name values.

Better, use money to industrialize the country. How about producing sewing needles for the tailoring machines used in the garments? Ohhh! You guys will then lose your important prestige, isn't it?

So according to your logic every car goes to road only for a single day in a whole year and you based your assumption on that logic?

Bamgladesh has 3.4 million vehicles among that around 24k will use the bridge daily. In some cases same vehicle will use it twice in a day.

Hope it clarified your confusion. ADB forecast that I shared earlier have provided more breakdown:

Of the vehicles, 8,238 will be passenger buses, 10,244 trucks and 5,000 plus microbuses and private cars.

 

[bluesky]

so you divide the whole traffic by 365 considering the owner will drive once in a year,

And your calculation is based on the hypothesis that all of the 2-, 3- and 4-wheelers in Bangladesh shall ply over the bridge all through the year, and this is why you believe in 21,300 vehicle per day.

Better, you take a bus to Aricha and count how many vehicles arrive there from Dhaka from dawn to midnight. Then you go to Mawa to count the same. Now, you add the two figures and multiply by 2 to know about the probable number of vehicles over the bridge.

I believe, it would hardly be more than 1,000 vehicles per day, all types 6 months after completion of construction. I am a frequent traveler from Gabtoli to Faridpur via Aricha and I know the number of frequencies of crossing by the ferry boats, and approximately how many vehicles they can carry. I also traveled via Mawa one or two times, and I know very well the approximate number of vehicles travel over there. It is much much lesser than it is in Aricha.

I do not believe somehow someone from the sky will drop all those 21,300 vehicles over the bridge per day. So, I believe it will become another White Elephant, BD style, for which this country is sooo famous throughout the world.

So according to your logic every car goes to road only for a single day in a whole year and you based your assumption on that logic?

No, every vehicle travels many times a day if it is Dhaka or Chittagong. But, how can you assume that all the cars from all over Bangladesh will keep on traveling to our Faridpur and other districts nearby?

I have not heard Faridpur people have arranged picnic parties for the people coming from Dhaka and Chittagong. If so, I also wish to go then and eat a free lunch. Without a car there, I will hire a Taxi.

 

[Landmine]

Better, you take a bus to Aricha and count how many vehicles arrive there from Dhaka from dawn to midnight. Then you go to Mawa to count the same. Now, you add the two figures and multiply by 2 to know about the probable number of vehicles over the bridge.

As a matter of fact, I did count the vehicle at different locations on the Dhaka-Mawa highway as a part of the Pre-feasibility project of Dhaka outer ring road. We found around 15,000 (I forgot the exact number, it was 5 years back) veh/day sum total for both ways near the Dhaleshwari toll-plaza. I have no idea why you kept pushing your stupid counting method, where the JICA report, SMEC report is showing other things. Do you think they are stupid!

Please stop quoting me. I am done with you! You are such a stupid and illogical person. I have worked in the field and I had seen the number. Not like just pooing out a wired methodology to refute decades-long developed methodology.

You keep thinking whatever you want. The fact stays fact. The reason behind such a long talk is the other readers of the thread. They could have an idea about real stuff.

Goodbye!

 

[bluesky]

As a matter of fact, I did count the vehicle at different locations on the Dhaka-Mawa highway as a part of the Pre-feasibility project of Dhaka outer ring road. We found around 15,000 (I forgot the exact number, it was 5 years back) veh/day sum total for both ways near the Dhaleshwari toll-plaza. I have no idea why you kept pushing your stupid counting method, where the JICA report, SMEC report is showing other things. Do you think they are stupid!

Don't sell JICA name. Why are you stupid enough to count vehicles for Dhaka to Mawa? You should have counted only those that are crossing the river on the ferries.

By the way, did you take any video proof for your wrong counting? 15,000 vehicles in 10 hours means 1,500 in one hour. It means 25 vehicles in one single minute, and 1 vehicle every 2.4 seconds. Is my math wrong?

People should stop drinking cheap Deshi Botol, bad for mind and brain. They forget how to count and turn Chapabaz of which our people are very famous worldwide.

 

[ZY-CN-CA]

cool,it made by

Contractor : China Major Bridge Engineering Co. Ltd, China

Contractor : Sinohydro Corporation Limited, China.

Contractor : AML-HCM JV.

Contractor : Abdul Monem Ltd.

ESST : Bangladesh Army.

Consultant : Special Works Organization(SWO-West), Bangladesh Army in association with Bureau of Research, Testing and Consultation of BUET.

best wishes