I appreciate your analysis, but do not agree with this narrative that Bangladeshi public have lost confidence with both parties and democracy itself. What alternatives are available then, military rule like 1/11 Gen. Moeen? Please give us a break. Public is not going that route again.
Only alternative available is a free and fair election, within 3 months after an Army takeover, inspired by UN threat of their dismissal or put on hold from UNPKF operations.
If the above does not take place, then we are looking at a next Afghanistan, regardless of what some scared public may like it or not. And I hope the US, EU, China and UN are listening, if they want to avoid another Afghanistan, with 6 times the population crammed in many times smaller land, right next to South East Asia, which will destabilize:
- India, and particularly NE states and Muslim majority pockets
- possibly Myanmar
- potentially muslim part of SE Asia as well
Beijing isn't in any position to have any say on the election matter.
And yes, the public have lost confidence in the two parties. More specifically, the two fat chicks. I'm sorry, but that is the reality, and not our personal opinions. I never said that the public have lost interest in democracy. Not a chance.
The reason being that the two fatties have been more concerned about settling scores against one other, rather than for the nation. That's why I said that regardless of how illiterate Bangladeshis maybe, the majority know and realize this. That is why BNP/Jamaat demonstrations have received such poor response. But then, very few voted on January 5th. Gulshan and Banani voting centers were completely empty.
Recall that the politics of Bangladesh were traditionally dominated by the two families. And we know that family-based politics goes nowhere in a democracy (or any system for that matter). This is a recorded fact.
High society, how they evolved and the example they set for the lesser ones to follow is also another factor. The founder of Partex Group for example started out as a smuggler. That's how he made his money. There are plenty of examples like that. That creates mistrust within society. And when there's mistrust, there's no unity with fear being gripped in their minds.
The point being that there never was any real democracy in Bangladesh where the grass-roots people can have a say, and move forward together. And if there ever was one, it was fragile and dangerously volatile. People actually got killed. It's a system composed of criminals and the corrupt. No one in Bangladesh ever wanted that reality, NO ONE. But that is reality (sadly).
People voted for leaders for whom they hope can be a better government, but that has increasingly turned out into a viscous lie. A big practical joke. Hasina and Khaleda were obsessed in how well their little cat-fights went about. That dominated their parties as well, which are filled with mostly incompetent men and women.
The Awami Leauge were severely leveled after Mujib's assassination. And the nation's first election result was so because people's memory of Mujib's tyranny was still fresh. The AL was a very weak party even back then. That's why the AL worked so hard in the media sector, honey money flowing from mysterious sources. They worked very hard.
At present, there is a lot of difference between the AL and BNP. What two months was worth for BNP is like two years for the AL. They are a lot stronger. It is really no easy task to go against the AL right now.
I think speaking about democracy, the role of the military, politics, society and how it all evolves is very interesting for Muslim-majority nations. It's a topic worthy of research and discussion.
Needless to say, I always support a multi-party democracy no matter what anyone says. And that includes Islamists, but then, they can of-course be present in a democracy in a Muslim-majority nation. If one doesn't like the likes of Jamaat, don't vote for them. I know I wouldn't because I think they are weird.
The US, along with the rest of the NATO bloc wanted the same for Muslim countries. But simply do not know how. Recall that they were the ones pressuring Pakistan to move forward to democracy. I think it is highly unfortunate for India to take such a stand at present. Utterly immature as well.
In a democracy, it is usually easier and more straightforward under a secular system. Yes, religious parties can be there, but the system is indifferent to religion. There is close to no research in the realms of political science on the matter of religion being embedded in a democratic system. Much of the relationship is based on mere opinions and based on very simple connotations. Be they Islamists, or Westerners. It's just like these radical right-wing and left-wing parties springing up in Europe. Very simple ideals, and not dealing with the complex web of reality.
That is where much of the misunderstanding and mistrust is. Islamists around the world are mostly an immature bunch, but so were (and probably still are) the Western powers. Their immaturity and lack of knowledge during the days of the Cold War is what partly contributed to the mess in parts of the Muslim World. It's like a democracy experiment of a culture they lack knowledge of.
Islamic banking on the other hand has a science behind it. And a proven methodology. That's why it is being sprung up by Western banking institutions around the world. Standard Chartered even offers Halal (Saadiq) credit cards.
See, people must be given the power of choice. And that is what a democracy gives. A system based on forced ideals and personal utopias are destined to fall apart in time. If Jamaat is banned, where else would the Islamists of Bangladesh go? What room would they have to maneuver? They have rights too no matter how much they are hated, or how small they may be. And in fact, Islam means a lot to many Bangladeshis and their identity. There's a reason why Islamic banking is such a profitable business in Bangladesh.
Any system in which a significant fraction of the people reject would inevitably fail. And that is why dictatorships and one-party states fail. And so would the AL.
Just give it time. It'll fall apart. Hasina has a shelf-life of 15 years max. The various AL factions will starting fighting one another for power.
If Bangladesh is to become a failed state, then so be it. They like doing things the hard way, they'll learn the hard way. The equation will be balanced that must be accepted by all. If not, they'll suffer the consequences.
And sometimes kalu bhai, it's best to let nature take its course. Especially when there is no science behind anything. Let alone rationality. Anything is possible in Bangladesh.
