Bangladesh -- the best kept secret of Asia

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

So, there may be a major mistake in the formula that I have sent. But, I do not have the right calculator now to recalculate it and find out where the mistake is. But, I stick to my another math that I have written in the same post and which you have forgotten to quote.

Even with a 12% growth, the GDP will grow to $360 billion in simple rate, and it grows to $500billion in 2040 when calculated in compound rate. I believe 12% growth assumption is absurd. We should better think if the current growth of 6.5% can be sustained for many more years.

Is there any mistakes in the two figures above? But, you are still talking about $1 trillion GDP when the economy grows at 12% per anum when the calculation gives a much lower figure. You believe the high figure because it is written by some reporter who really did not do a proper mathematics.

There is no logic to argue with you.... it is better you use a scientific calculator and use your own formula to calculate the gdp based on both nominal and ppp term....

you are using a wrong assumption ... that with 12% growth it will be 360% in 30 years by 2040.... but again we are talking about 1 trillion by 2030 not 2040...

it works like this way... if suppose it is now 110, then in 2011 it will be 110*1.12=123.2 in 2012 it will be 123.2*1.12= 137.984... like this way....

but you are assuming like this way in 2011 like before but for 2012 it will be according to your consideration.. it will be 110*1.24=136.4... in 2013 it will be 110*1.36=149.6... but in reality it should be 137.984*1.12=154.542... in this way difference become bigger and bigger with the advancement of year...

Here it is an online scientific calculator ... you can use it for your calculation...

Web 2.0 scientific calculator

 

[integra]

sorry but I'm not good at maths so I can't provide logical statements here. But still if any one could provide the logarithmic curve(graph) of the progression than it would have been suitable for us to understand whats going on .

 

[KashmiriPolice]

Wow... I love to see Bangladesh developed like South Korea or Taiwan in 2030... If they can make it there is not reason that Bangladesh can't.

All it needs is dedicated focus on education, infrastructure, and suitable climate for investors to invest without any fear of religious fanatics... The grow will follow you even if you don't want.

Come on Bangladesh...

 

[somebozo]

If Bangladesh is projecting to be such economic giant it first has to secure its border with India or else the continuous influx of economic migrants will ruin Bangladesh social fabric.

 

[idune]

If Bangladesh is projecting to be such economic giant it first has to secure its border with India or else the continuous influx of economic migrants will ruin Bangladesh social fabric.

Very good point but the way things going Awami regime plan is to eliminate Bangladesh border altogather and make way for looting.

 

[DesiGuy]

Very good point but the way things going Awami regime plan is to eliminate Bangladesh border altogather and make way for looting.

Once again, Educate the people. I am sure they will chose the best leader available in BD for them.

 

[idune]

I guess 1.2 GDP growth projection is further delyed. So how does the GDP curve looks now??? We know what the answer would be.
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Padma Bridge, Expressway unlikely to be ready in time
Munima Sultana

Bangladesh Bridge Authority's capacity building by filling up its substantial manpower gap has been caught in bureaucratic tangle and the authority's inability to hire people from the market is likely to make the implementation of its proposal mega projects difficult.
..............................

The permission was given about six months after the BBA had sent a proposal to recruit 356 people assessing their need at various levels of work of mainly Padma Bridge and Dhaka Elevated Expressway projects, they added.

Padma Bridge, Expressway unlikely to be ready in time

 

[Rajkumar]

well figures are not bad, aim high so at least you will land up some where in between thats guaranteed. A prosperous and strong Bangladesh is all we need. in order to do that india is ready to help will all hers strength.
some of members will jump on me because of my last sentence keep on saying, India is evil and her stooges will ruin bangladesh. i have only one thing to say to all Bangladeshi friends "use your mind, instead believe on rumors and do what suits you most"

 

[Al-zakir]

i have only one thing to say to all Bangladeshi friends "use your mind, instead believe on rumors and do what suits you most"

No disrespect however we have opened our eyes and we are saying to you that we are bettor off with out you yet you or some other Bharati will come up with counter logic that Bangladesh need Bharat to prosper.

Once again we Bangladeshi saying clearly that leave the hell us alone, stay out of our internal matter and most of all withdraw your support for Awami Munafiq league.

We will be best buddy. I promised.

 

[Dalai Lama]

No disrespect however we have opened our eyes and we are saying to you that we are bettor off with out you yet you or some other Bharati will come up with counter logic that Bangladesh need Bharat to prosper.

Once again we Bangladeshi saying clearly that leave the hell us alone, stay out of our internal matter and most of all withdraw your support for Awami Munafiq league.

We will be best buddy. I promised.

You don't need us and we don't need you.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Once again, Educate the people. I am sure they will chose the best leader available in BD for them.

Wow... I love to see Bangladesh developed like South Korea or Taiwan in 2030... If they can make it there is not reason that Bangladesh can't.

All it needs is dedicated focus on education, infrastructure, and suitable climate for investors to invest without any fear of religious fanatics... The grow will follow you even if you don't want.

Come on Bangladesh...

In terms of education ... according to the latest report.... the super cycle....by standard chartered bank... bangladesh will be in the 5th position of the world in terms of tertiary education for 15- to 65-year-olds...
and number of graduate produced per year.... this is really fascinating that according to the report bangladesh will be above then countries like indonesia, phillipines, russia, nigeria, pakistan and brazil... despite many of them will have more population then bangladesh...


See the page 70 of the report under the title Creativity.....

http://www.standardchartered.com/me...documents/20101115/The_Super-cycle_Report.pdf


The recent report made by DCCI about the economy of bangladesh in 2030.... is based on the opportunities that bangadesh can utilize to become a trillion dollar economy by 2030.....

Here for instance they have taken in to account the toy and cloth manufacturing industry which is going to diversified from china.... for instance china right now export 200 billion worth of ready made garments... most of which is going to be diversified to other country as labor cost in china has increased dramatically....Bangladesh is in a better position to capture most of the business... including toy manufacturing business...


Now lets come to IT and service providing business which mainly India provides or export... In india the cost is also rising dramatically .... in this regard bangladesh can be a better a destination for diversification... if any one notes clearly they will see that many indian software firm has started to set up their office in bangladesh to utilize the low labor cost....

next comes the pharmaceuticals... it is right now 880 billion dollar industry.... but bangladesh only export around 800 million worth of product.... here bangladesh can earn a big chunk of money.... if bangladesh can attain only 2% of the world pharmaceuticals business by 2015-2020 bd can earn around 20 billion from it alone... if more market can be grabbed it will increase more.... As a LDC country bd has the permission to produce and export medicine even if it has patent by other companies up to 2020.... it has been urged to utilize this opportunity....

same also goes for ship building industry....

Due to low labor cost bangladesh is in better position to capture other manufacturing business...

According to the report...by 2030 industry sector will/may contribute up to 40% of the economy which is less than 10% now... n contribution of agriculture will reduce to 10 percent.... according to them bangladesh by 2030 will export around 160 billion dollar worth of product under present dollar value by 2030...

They have projected the growth of bangladesh for 8%, 10%, 12% average gdp growth scenario... they said 8% is moderate, 10% is likely and 12% will be highly ambitious but bangladesh has the potential to attain that if power crisis can be ressolved, infrastructure can be developed, all sort of bureaucratic problem can be resolved and better investment atmosphere can be created. They said these are highly challenging but still possible. They said if bangladesh fails to implement these most of these business will go to rival countries such as vietnam and indonesia... in this regard they pointed out bangladesh at present has a serious power crisis where as java does not have any power crisis... so definitely it will be preffered destination for the investor if power shortage can not be resolved in a short period of time.

But they said in terms of PPP with around 7-7.5% GDP growth bangladesg will be a trillion dollar economy under present dollar value in terms of PPP and will be one of the top 30 economy in the orld by 2030.

For nominal... Bangladesh will be trillion dollar economy if 12% gdp growth can be maintainted... at 10% gdp growth it will be arond 750 billion dollar economy and 550 billion dollar if average gdp growth remain 8%....

sorry but I'm not good at maths so I can't provide logical statements here. But still if any one could provide the logarithmic curve(graph) of the progression than it would have been suitable for us to understand whats going on .

The below graphs will illustrate the economy for the next 20 years with average growth rate of 8%, 10% and 12% respectively from current position of 110 billion USD...

For 8% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

http://img442.imageshack.us/i/gdp3.jpg/

For 10% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

http://img840.imageshack.us/i/gdp2.jpg/

For 12% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

http://img602.imageshack.us/i/gdp1.jpg/


The last picture is the combination of the 3...

http://img408.imageshack.us/i/gdpg.jpg/

If any one see it carefully then 1 will notice that even with 12% gdp growth economy will spike only after 2022...

I hope i have cleared many of the facts ..... which was raised... lastly none of these are my imagination or thought... all are raised by other orgs....

cheers...

I do not know why the images are not working.... so i posted the image links instead...

 

[Skies]

For 8% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 10% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 12% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

the combination of the 3...
..................................................................................................................


@ Sami108:

There is no mistake in your calculation but problem is 12% GDP to achieve. It seems they have told about the goals but strategies to archive that goal is unlikely to happen. Because, look at those graphs below.

It took 2005-1972 =33 years to achieve to 1.134 trillion from 111.934 billion for Canada.

It took 2007-1976 =31 years to achieve to 1.233 trillion from 101.087 billion for India.

It took 2007-1986 =21 years to achieve to 1.049 trillion from 111.306 billion for South Korea.

World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google public data

So it's apparently impossible for BD to achieve 1T of GDP in 20 years, because even Canada, India and South Korea took 33, 31 and 21 years to achieve around 1 T of GDP.

 

[DesiGuy]

@sami6108

thanks. i personally would love to see BD developing.it's better for India as well, and most importantly it's better for BD people. I am in favor of developing South Asia.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

For 8% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 10% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 12% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

the combination of the 3...
.................................................................................................................


@ Sami108:

There is no mistake in your calculation but problem is 12% GDP to achieve. It seems they have told about the goals but strategies to archive that goal is unlikely to happen. Because, look at those graphs below.

It took 2005-1972 =33 years to achieve to 1.134 trillion from 111.934 billion for Canada.

It took 2007-1976 =31 years to achieve to 1.233 trillion from 101.087 billion for India.

It took 2007-1986 =21 years to achieve to 1.049 trillion from 111.306 billion for South Korea.

World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google public data

So it's apparently impossible for BD to achieve 1T of GDP in 20 years, because even Canada, India and South Korea took 33, 31 and 21 years to achieve around 1 T of GDP.

Thanks for your informative post..... DCCI say that Bangladesh will achieve that target in terms of PPP for sure by 2030.... For nominal they said 1 trillion is also possible but this is highly ambitious... But possible to achieve... They said also there are lots of challenge to achieve that.. Bangladesh needs to overcome it's own problem.... It is nothing just like other forecast ... It is meant to show the way... Bangladesh needs to move towards that way... If it does not others will take the opportunity.... This time is really crucial as diversification of choruses economy is going to happen in the next couple of years... Including indias service sector.... So this is termed as once in a life time opportunity... If this time bd fails to take this opportunity.....it is unlikely to happen in decades...


N regarding Canada, south Korea, India... You need to remember that at that time they did not get the benefit of globalization.. N canadas GDP growth rate is always slow.... This country mainly depends on natural resources.... Same goes for India.... It opened it's economy in 1991 only.... Same also goes for south Korea... But Korea achieved that in almost 20 years....


N their per capital GDP was much higher than Bangladesh.... So it is a factor.... Which provides the low labor cost benefit... Including many other benefits...

I know 12 percent on an average may not be possible... But I personally think on. An average 9-10 percent GDP growth maintaining is possible....

Anyway time will say what will happen... But Bangladesh needs to change it's political culture to attain the untapped GDP growth ... There is no doubt about that...

 

[idune]

For 8% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 10% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

For 12% gdp growth... in the next 20 years GDP....

the combination of the 3...
..................................................................................................................


@ Sami108:

There is no mistake in your calculation but problem is 12% GDP to achieve. It seems they have told about the goals but strategies to archive that goal is unlikely to happen. Because, look at those graphs below.

It took 2005-1972 =33 years to achieve to 1.134 trillion from 111.934 billion for Canada.

It took 2007-1976 =31 years to achieve to 1.233 trillion from 101.087 billion for India.

It took 2007-1986 =21 years to achieve to 1.049 trillion from 111.306 billion for South Korea.

World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google public data

So it's apparently impossible for BD to achieve 1T of GDP in 20 years, because even Canada, India and South Korea took 33, 31 and 21 years to achieve around 1 T of GDP.

Skies, thanks for painstickingly collect these data and post it. Arguments I have made from the beginning (and eastwatch for that matter) proved by stat you posted. But for people like Sami its hype is more important than living in reality and very quick to call people name when you point the obvious.