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Australia increasingly uneasy about US’ future Asia policy
By Hugh White Source: Global Times Published: 2017/2/16
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Donald Trump is making Australians worried, and the more they see of him, the more they worry. For many decades they have relied on the US to keep Asia stable and Australia safe, and they are very grateful for the regional leadership role the US has played. But like many other people around the world, they find it hard to imagine how the US can exercise its traditional leadership role, or any kind of constructive role, under a president like Trump.
They were shocked by the way Trump campaigned for presidency, surprised when he won the election, and have been dismayed by the way he has conducted himself since taking office less than a month ago. Their worst fears were confirmed by the crude and unstatesmanlike way Trump spoke to Australia's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in a recent phone call. This is not the way a close US ally like Australia should be treated.
The strains in US-Australia relations come at what was already a difficult time for the alliance. The contrast between Trump and the cool and courtly Barack Obama could not be more stark, but even under Obama there were apprehensions about how Australia's and US' strategic interests might diverge over the central question of how to deal with China.
Obama's famous "pivot to Asia" policy was based on the assumption that the US could and should remain the region's unchallenged primary power, despite the massive shift in relative economic and strategic weight to China. They clearly underestimated China's determination to build a new model of great power relations in Asia in which China would play a bigger role.
Australians welcome the idea that the US will continue to play an important strategic role. But they fear escalating rivalry if Washington refuses to accommodate China's ambitions to expand its influence in the region. This made Canberra uncertain about how much support it should give to Obama's "pivot." Now those uncertainties have increased tenfold under Trump. There are four reasons for Australians' unease.
First, there is the risk that Trump's inflammatory tweet-from-the-hip style of diplomacy will provoke an unnecessary and dangerous confrontation with China, increasing the risk of a conflict which would be disastrous for everyone, including Australia. Consider for example the cavalier way in which Trump cast doubt over the one-China policy, and the threat by his secretary of state to block Chinese access to bases in the South China Sea.
Remarks like this raise real concerns about whether Trump and his advisers understand the basic principles of the relationship and the red lines which must be respected in managing it. There is also a clear risk that Trump's brand of economic nationalism will lead him to target trade with China in ways which would be economically disastrous not just for the two countries themselves but for others like Australia.
Second, there is a heightened concern that, under Trump, America will withdraw from Asia. For all his provocative tough talk about China, there is little evidence that the new president really believes that America needs to remain strategically engaged there. This is what he means by "America First." The abandonment of the TPP, promoted as central to America's regional standing, showed quite plainly that he is not willing to make sacrifices to preserve a strong US leadership in Asia.
Third, there are real doubts that Trump takes US allies seriously. He has made many dismissive remarks about NATO, and infamously suggested last year that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear forces rather than rely on America.
The fact that he and his senior officials have since stepped back from some of these statements does little to reassure the allies on the US' reliability and commitments. On the contrary, Trump's habit of saying things he doesn't mean, which undermines the credibility of everything he says, only adds to the unease.
Finally, and perhaps most fundamentally, there are questions about what his presidency may mean for the US itself and its government. Prominent Americans have raised concerns about the risk that Trump will try, and may even succeed, to fundamentally undermine the checks and balances on which America's system of government has for so long depended.
This would be catastrophic for the US domestically and for its role in the world, including in Asia.
Australians naturally wonder how China sees the situation and what it means for the way China conducts itself towards the US. Many people in China may view Trump's presidency as a great opportunity for China to expand its role as a strategic leader in Asia.
But China must be cautious. Given Trump's erratic nature, any US-China confrontation has a higher risk of escalating into a war. In addition, as the world's largest economy, the US has strong links with countries across the globe, including Asia. If the US suffers, China's interests may also suffer.
The author is professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University in Canberra.
By Hugh White Source: Global Times Published: 2017/2/16
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Donald Trump is making Australians worried, and the more they see of him, the more they worry. For many decades they have relied on the US to keep Asia stable and Australia safe, and they are very grateful for the regional leadership role the US has played. But like many other people around the world, they find it hard to imagine how the US can exercise its traditional leadership role, or any kind of constructive role, under a president like Trump.
They were shocked by the way Trump campaigned for presidency, surprised when he won the election, and have been dismayed by the way he has conducted himself since taking office less than a month ago. Their worst fears were confirmed by the crude and unstatesmanlike way Trump spoke to Australia's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in a recent phone call. This is not the way a close US ally like Australia should be treated.
The strains in US-Australia relations come at what was already a difficult time for the alliance. The contrast between Trump and the cool and courtly Barack Obama could not be more stark, but even under Obama there were apprehensions about how Australia's and US' strategic interests might diverge over the central question of how to deal with China.
Obama's famous "pivot to Asia" policy was based on the assumption that the US could and should remain the region's unchallenged primary power, despite the massive shift in relative economic and strategic weight to China. They clearly underestimated China's determination to build a new model of great power relations in Asia in which China would play a bigger role.
Australians welcome the idea that the US will continue to play an important strategic role. But they fear escalating rivalry if Washington refuses to accommodate China's ambitions to expand its influence in the region. This made Canberra uncertain about how much support it should give to Obama's "pivot." Now those uncertainties have increased tenfold under Trump. There are four reasons for Australians' unease.
First, there is the risk that Trump's inflammatory tweet-from-the-hip style of diplomacy will provoke an unnecessary and dangerous confrontation with China, increasing the risk of a conflict which would be disastrous for everyone, including Australia. Consider for example the cavalier way in which Trump cast doubt over the one-China policy, and the threat by his secretary of state to block Chinese access to bases in the South China Sea.
Remarks like this raise real concerns about whether Trump and his advisers understand the basic principles of the relationship and the red lines which must be respected in managing it. There is also a clear risk that Trump's brand of economic nationalism will lead him to target trade with China in ways which would be economically disastrous not just for the two countries themselves but for others like Australia.
Second, there is a heightened concern that, under Trump, America will withdraw from Asia. For all his provocative tough talk about China, there is little evidence that the new president really believes that America needs to remain strategically engaged there. This is what he means by "America First." The abandonment of the TPP, promoted as central to America's regional standing, showed quite plainly that he is not willing to make sacrifices to preserve a strong US leadership in Asia.
Third, there are real doubts that Trump takes US allies seriously. He has made many dismissive remarks about NATO, and infamously suggested last year that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear forces rather than rely on America.
The fact that he and his senior officials have since stepped back from some of these statements does little to reassure the allies on the US' reliability and commitments. On the contrary, Trump's habit of saying things he doesn't mean, which undermines the credibility of everything he says, only adds to the unease.
Finally, and perhaps most fundamentally, there are questions about what his presidency may mean for the US itself and its government. Prominent Americans have raised concerns about the risk that Trump will try, and may even succeed, to fundamentally undermine the checks and balances on which America's system of government has for so long depended.
This would be catastrophic for the US domestically and for its role in the world, including in Asia.
Australians naturally wonder how China sees the situation and what it means for the way China conducts itself towards the US. Many people in China may view Trump's presidency as a great opportunity for China to expand its role as a strategic leader in Asia.
But China must be cautious. Given Trump's erratic nature, any US-China confrontation has a higher risk of escalating into a war. In addition, as the world's largest economy, the US has strong links with countries across the globe, including Asia. If the US suffers, China's interests may also suffer.
The author is professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University in Canberra.
