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Attempt on Imran Khan's Life: Has Pakistan Army Lost Popular Support?

RiazHaq

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Multiple polls over the years have found that the Pakistani military has traditionally enjoyed widespread popular support in the country. This support has been particularly strong among the urban middle class Pakistanis who have now become the backbone of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party which has accused the Pakistani military of orchestrating an assassination attempt against the former Prime Minister. The events of the last several months, particularly this week's assassination attempt on the PTI chief's life, are forcing the people to choose sides. By-election results and huge attendance of the PTI rallies confirm that most of the people are supporting Imran Khan over the military.
Pakistan's Ex PM Imran Khan and Current Army Chief General Bajwa

Some Pakistani political analysts have long speculated about the possibility of the loss of public support for the Pakistani military. Back in 2019, I met Sohail Warraich, a senior journalist and political analyst as well as a popular host of "Ek Din Geo K Sath" aired on Geo TV channel. Warraich was visiting Silicon Valley to record an episode of "Ek Din Geo K Sath" with a successful Pakistani entrepreneur named Osman Rashid. Warraich said he believes the rise of Imran Khan and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) were enabled by the support of the military and the middle class. Middle class support for the military will eventually fade and there will eventually be conflict between the two. It could lead to significant political changes in the country.

Osman Rashid invited me and a few other Pakistani-American friends to meet Warraich over dinner at his Los Altos home. In response to my question about about the current state of affairs in Pakistan, Warraich shared his insights below:

1. Pakistan's middle class is rising and increasingly asserting itself in politics.

2. Pakistani military is the most dominant force in the country. It enjoys broad support among the middle class Pakistanis.

3. The rise of Imran Khan and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) have been enabled by the support of the military and the middle class.

4. Middle class support for the military will eventually fade and there will be conflict between the two. It could lead to significant political changes in the country.

Will there be yet another Martial Law in the country? Past Martial Laws in Pakistan have had the support of the people. A Gallup poll conducted immediately after the 1999 coup showed that 75% of respondents supported the military takeover, while less than 10% supported restoring Mr. Nawaz Sharif's government. The situation today is very different. It is more likely today that the Pakistani military will back down and conceded to Imran Khan's demand for fresh elections.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Two-thirds of Pakistanis Support Imran Khan's Demand For Fresh Elections

Prime Minister Imran Khan's Performance

75% of Pakistanis Supported 1999 Coup Against Nawaz Sharif's Government

Textile Boom in Pakistan

Construction and Manufacturing Driving Pakistan's Recovery

Demographic Dividend and Record Remittances

Mobile Phone Manufacturing in Pakistan

Covid Crisis in India

Pakistan's COVID Handling

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network


 
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Multiple polls over the years have found that the Pakistani military has traditionally enjoyed widespread popular support in the country. This support has been particularly strong among the urban middle class Pakistanis who have now become the backbone of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party which has accused the Pakistani military of orchestrating an assassination attempt against the former Prime Minister. The events of the last several months, particularly this week's assassination attempt on the PTI chief's life, are forcing the people to choose sides. By-election results and huge attendance of the PTI rallies confirm that most of the people are supporting Imran Khan over the military.
Pakistan's Ex PM Imran Khan and Current Army Chief General Bajwa

Some Pakistani political analysts have long speculated about the possibility of the loss of public support for the Pakistani military. Back in 2019, I met Sohail Warraich, a senior journalist and political analyst as well as a popular host of "Ek Din Geo K Sath" aired on Geo TV channel. Warraich was visiting Silicon Valley to record an episode of "Ek Din Geo K Sath" with a successful Pakistani entrepreneur named Osman Rashid. Warraich said he believes the rise of Imran Khan and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) were enabled by the support of the military and the middle class. Middle class support for the military will eventually fade and there will eventually be conflict between the two. It could lead to significant political changes in the country.

Osman Rashid invited me and a few other Pakistani-American friends to meet Warraich over dinner at his Los Altos home. In response to my question about about the current state of affairs in Pakistan, Warraich shared his insights below:

1. Pakistan's middle class is rising and increasingly asserting itself in politics.

2. Pakistani military is the most dominant force in the country. It enjoys broad support among the middle class Pakistanis.

3. The rise of Imran Khan and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) have been enabled by the support of the military and the middle class.

4. Middle class support for the military will eventually fade and there will be conflict between the two. It could lead to significant political changes in the country.

Will there be yet another Martial Law in the country? Past Martial Laws in Pakistan have had the support of the people. A Gallup poll conducted immediately after the 1999 coup showed that 75% of respondents supported the military takeover, while less than 10% supported restoring Mr. Nawaz Sharif's government. The situation today is very different. It is more likely today that the Pakistani military will back down and conceded to Imran Khan's demand for fresh elections.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Two-thirds of Pakistanis Support Imran Khan's Demand For Fresh Elections

Prime Minister Imran Khan's Performance

75% of Pakistanis Supported 1999 Coup Against Nawaz Sharif's Government

Textile Boom in Pakistan

Construction and Manufacturing Driving Pakistan's Recovery

Demographic Dividend and Record Remittances

Mobile Phone Manufacturing in Pakistan

Covid Crisis in India

Pakistan's COVID Handling

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network


A below average article which is far from the reality of Pakistani politics. Pakistan military has never been a electoral political entity (barring a few military dictators who went to polls in the form of a referendum in the past). How the heck one then can claim that Pakistani military has traditionally enjoyed widespread popular support in the country. When the hypothesis is invalid how this guy's analysis could be valid? But one thing is clear to everyone in the world. If it comes to choosing one from Pak military and a Pakistani politician, Pakistani people (regardless of belonging to the midle-class or not), without a doubt will jump to the military's side. However, a real statesperson with very sound character or very hight moral ground can possibly give a formidable challenge to the mlitary. But here at present, Pakistan is void of any political figure of that stature. Imran Khan is not even close to be such a leader. A person without integrity, principles, and dignity cannot be even a leader leave alone a sound one and on top of that a statesperson. Some people in Pakistan were made to believe of an Imran Khan as a saviour of the nation purely based on propaganda, lies, and falsehood. The four years of his rule have proved to be a disaster for this nation. He broke as many laws of Pakistan as he he could (or in his power). He has been caught red handed stealing gifts from toshakhana, found involved in money laundering, and spending charity money on his political rallies. He is bad-mouthing every constiyutional institution in Pakisan. How much he regards the law of the land can be gauged from the fact that tried to bulldoze every law that came across his way.

All in all, a bullsh!t article not worth wasting time.
 
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Strong civilian govt with IK at head is only way forward.

Lots of reforms in army, bureaucracy, justice needed. There is no space for PDM though. They should be voided into trash can of history.
 
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A below average article which is far from the reality of Pakistani politics. Pakistan military has never been a electoral political entity (barring a few military dictators who went to polls in the form of a referendum in the past). How the heck one then can claim that Pakistani military has traditionally enjoyed widespread popular support in the country. When the hypothesis is invalid how this guy's analysis could be valid? But one thing is clear to everyone in the world. If it comes to choosing one from Pak military and a Pakistani politician, Pakistani people (regardless of belonging to the midle-class or not), without a doubt will jump to the military's side. However, a real statesperson with very sound character or very hight moral ground can possibly give a formidable challenge to the mlitary. But here at present, Pakistan is void of any political figure of that stature. Imran Khan is not even close to be such a leader. A person without integrity, principles, and dignity cannot be even a leader leave alone a sound one and on top of that a statesperson. Some people in Pakistan were made to believe of an Imran Khan as a saviour of the nation purely based on propaganda, lies, and falsehood. The four years of his rule have proved to be a disaster for this nation. He broke as many laws of Pakistan as he he could (or in his power). He has been caught red handed stealing gifts from toshakhana, found involved in money laundering, and spending charity money on his political rallies. He is bad-mouthing every constiyutional institution in Pakisan. How much he regards the law of the land can be gauged from the fact that tried to bulldoze every law that came across his way.

All in all, a bullsh!t article not worth wasting time.

Gallup Survey Showed 75% of Pakistanis Welcomed 1999 Coup​



On October 12, 1999, Pakistani military toppled democratically elected Prime Minister Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif. This action followed the Prime Minister's sudden decision to sack Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf and the Prime Minister's simultaneous orders to deny landing permission to the Pakistan International Airlines Boeing 777-200 that was bringing the Army Chief back to Karachi from Colombo, Sri Lanka. Polls conducted immediately after the coup showed broad public support for it.

October 1999 Gallup Survey:

A Gallup poll conducted immediately after the coup showed that 75% of respondents supported the military takeover, while less than 10% supported restoring Mr. Nawaz Sharif's government.


Benazir Bhutto's Reaction:

It was not just the ordinary Pakistanis who welcomed the coup that toppled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government. Here's how Pakistan's first woman prime minister late Benazir Bhutto reacted to it in 1999:

"Here, a coup has taken place against an unpopular despot (Nawaz Sharif) who was hounding the press, the judiciary, the opposition, the foreign investors. And when he decided to divide the army, the last institution left, the army reacted. Without going into the justifications of who is worse and the frying pan or the fire, I would like to say 'let's move forward'. This is a very dangerous period for a country which has physical bankruptcy and I would like to urge the western community to stay away from Nawaz Sharif, he is not liked by the Pakistani people"

Public Opinion Surveys:

There were frequent public opinion surveys conducted by multiple professional pollsters in Pakistan in the decade that followed the 1999 coup. One such credible survey was done regularly by Pew Global Research. It showed that the majority of the people believed the country was headed in the right direction in Musharraf years. It also showed that people's satisfaction with Pakistan's direction has been in rapid decline. It fell sharply during the governments headed by the Pakistan People's Party.


Another survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan in August 2013 showed that 59% of Pakistanis have a positive view of President Muaharraf (31% say they hold a favorable opinion of him and another 28% say he was satisfactory). 34% had an unfavorable opinion of the former ruler.

Pakistani Military's Popularity:

Multiple polls conducted over many years in Pakistan have consistently shown that the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis have high confidence in the Pakistani military. This is in sharp contrast to significantly lower levels of confidence they have shown in the country's politicians and bureaucrats. These results appear to reflect the Pakistanis' fear of chaos...the chaos which has hurt them more than any other threat since the country's inception in 1947. Indian Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar has described this situation in the following words: "Despite numerous dire forecasts of imminently proving to be a "failed state" Pakistan has survived, bouncing back every now and then as a recognizable democracy with a popularly elected civilian government, the military in the wings but politics very much centre-stage .....the Government of Pakistan remaining in charge, and the military stepping in to rescue the nation from chaos every time Pakistan appeared on the knife's edge". Pakistanis are not alone in their fear of chaos. Chinese, too, fear chaos. "In Chinese political culture, the biggest fear is of chaos", writes Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani in his recent book entitled "Has China Won".



A 2015 poll conducted by Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development (PILDAT) found that 75% of respondents trust the country's military, a much higher percentage than any other institution. Only 36% have confidence in Pakistan's political parties.



Here's a 2014 snapshot of how Pakistanis see various other institutions, according to Gallup International:

1. Institutions - Less than one-third of Pakistanis have confidence in the national government, local police, and honesty of elections, and the ratings for those institutions have declined over the last six years. Pakistan's military is the one institution that has retained the confidence of an overwhelming majority (roughly 80%) of people in the country.

2. Corruption - Eighty-one percent of Pakistanis see their government as rife with corruption. This is an increase of 13 percentage points over the last six years.

3. Leadership - Approximately one in three Pakistanis approve of the leaders in the city or area where they live. Their approval of national leaders is lower - approximately one in five Pakistanis approve of them.

Why is Pakistani Military Popular?

The popularity of the military among Pakistanis' appears to reflect their fear of chaos. Pakistani military has helped the nation defy the most dire predictions of Pakistan's demise. Political, military, religious, ethnic, sectarian, secular, conservative and liberal forces are constantly pushing and pulling to destabilize it but Pakistan remains resilient with its strong nationalism that has evolved after 1971.

A recent example is Pakistan Army's efforts to defend the state by its anti-terror operations Zarb e Azb and Radd ul Fasad that dramatically reduced the level of violence and significantly improved security in the country. It resulted in increased confidence of businesses, investors and consumers in the economy. Another recent example is the military's active role in Pakistan's success against pandemic caused by the deadly coronavirus.




Here's how India's ex cabinet minister Mani Shankar Aiyar has described Pakistani military's role in defending national integrity:

"Despite numerous dire forecasts of imminently proving to be a "failed state" Pakistan has survived, bouncing back every now and then as a recognizable democracy with a popularly elected civilian government, the military in the wings but politics very much centre-stage, linguistic and regional groups pulling and pushing, sectarian factions murdering each other, but the Government of Pakistan remaining in charge, and the military stepping in to rescue the nation from chaos every time Pakistan appeared on the knife's edge."

Pakistanis are not alone in their fear of chaos as being their biggest enemy. Chinese too fear chaos, as described by former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani in his recent book "Has China Won":

"In Chinese political culture, the biggest fear is of chaos. The Chinese have a word for it: luàn. Given these many long periods of suffering from chaos—including one as recent as the century of humiliation from the Opium War of 1842 to the creation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949—when the Chinese people are given a choice between strong central control and the chaos of political competition, they have a reflexive tendency to choose strong central control".

Summary:

Pakistani military remains the most popular institution in the country, according to multiple polls conducted over several decades. In October 1999, the military coup against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was widely welcomed in Pakistan. A Gallup poll conducted immediately after the coup showed that 75% of the people supported the military action. Only 10% of the respondents in the poll supported restoring Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government. These results appear to reflect the Pakistanis' fear of chaos...the chaos which has hurt them more than any other threat since the country's inception in 1947. Indian Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar has described this situation in the following words: "Despite numerous dire forecasts of imminently proving to be a "failed state" Pakistan has survived, bouncing back every now and then as a recognizable democracy with a popularly elected civilian government, the military in the wings but politics very much centre-stage .....the Government of Pakistan remaining in charge, and the military stepping in to rescue the nation from chaos every time Pakistan appeared on the knife's edge". Pakistanis are not alone in their fear of chaos. Chinese, too, fear chaos. "In Chinese political culture, the biggest fear is of chaos", writes Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani in his recent book entitled "Has China Won".
 
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Strong civilian govt with IK at head is only way forward.

Lots of reforms in army, bureaucracy, justice needed. There is no space for PDM though. They should be voided into trash can of history.
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Its very clear IK and Pak Army leadership are at odds.

If your the COAS what options do you have vs IK

1) - Accept IK demands (highly unlikely they will do that)
2) - Remove him using the law of the land from politics all together (under way now)
3) - Final solution get rid of him any way possible
4) - Negotiate a settlement and go for early elections

So which of the above do you think they are focusing on? I would guess 2/3
 
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