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At 65, China coming of age as a superpower
Posted: Friday, October 3, 2014, 1:08 AM
By Charles Desnoyers
This week marked the 65th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. After more than a century of humiliation, first at the hands of Western powers seeking trade and concessions, then by the Japanese seeking resources and territory, Mao Zedong proclaimed, "We have stood up!"
China had finally thrown off the yoke of what Mao called its "semi-colonial" status and was about to forever change what he termed its "semi-feudal" society.
Here in the United States, the age of 65 is generally seen as a watershed for individuals. For many it marks the onset of retirement and collecting Social Security, and it is often seen as signaling the transition from middle age to senior status. For nations, of course, the same significance does not necessarily apply - perhaps even less for China, with its thousands of years of history. Still, this seems like an appropriate moment to take stock of China's latest regime, especially as the years since 1949 have seen both social upheaval on a world-historical scale and unprecedented economic growth.
It has become something of a cliché to note that, the war on terror and the problems of the Middle East notwithstanding, it will be China and its growing power and influence that will loom largest on the global stage for our country in the coming decades. Nowhere is this more true than in the realm of economics.
In 1978, Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping announced the Four Modernizations, a profound retreat from Maoist collectivism that introduced market economics as the new party policy. In February 2011, under what is currently termed "socialism with Chinese characteristics," the People's Republic of China passed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy.
In addition, China's military is swiftly modernizing and expanding its ability to project power. China's regional and global diplomatic clout have more than kept pace, and it has become much more aggressive about asserting what it considers territorial prerogatives, especially in the realm of offshore oil reserves. Most recently, it has been rapidly extending its "soft power" - the ability to wield quiet, indirect influence - in certain strategic areas.
For example, China's unquenchable thirst for resources has made it a rapidly growing presence in Africa, where it has invested heavily in extraction industries and infrastructure. In a complete cultural reversal from the Maoist years, it has also funded Confucius Institutes throughout the world - including several in our region - in an effort to foster its current vision of China's cultural heritage.
Given China's meteoric growth, with a gross domestic product that has expanded at a rate of 7 to 10 percent a year for 30 years, what does the immediate future hold for our two countries? Will China surpass the United States and become the world's economic superpower? If so, what are the implications?
Several years ago, China's heavy investment in U.S. Treasury bills was seen by many as a stealth attack on the American economy; recent U.S. allegations of Chinese hacking of American computer networks, and Chinese countercharges of such activity on the part of U.S. intelligence, suggest that competitive friction will likely increase.
Yet the picture becomes murkier as economists struggle to parse out exactly how to analyze the economic indicators of the two countries. According to the International Monetary Fund's purchasing power parity figures, China's GDP was about half that of the United States in 2012, but it's currently up to 76 percent. With America's GDP expanding at a little over 3 percent annually and China's growing at about 7 percent, many economists see China matching the United States in absolute terms by the end of this decade. The picture changes radically, however, if the measurement of importance becomes per-capita income: According to World Bank figures for 2013, China's per-capita GDP is $6,807; the United States' is $53,143.
In many respects, then, China may be seen as a superpower in the making, but a "fragile superpower," as journalist Frank Gibney once described Japan. China's power grows daily, but its problems are enormous as well. Its population of 1.3 billion puts tremendous pressure on China's ability to provide for the needs of its citizens. Still heavily reliant on coal for fuel, it has seven of the world's 10 most polluted cities within its borders. Restive minorities such as the Tibetans and Uighurs chafe at policies encouraging Han Chinese emigration into their regions and charge the government with cultural genocide.
The Communist Party itself faces increasing agitation to fight corruption and allow greater popular political participation. This week, massive demonstrations swept Hong Kong to protest Beijing's attempts to vet candidates for the city's 2017 municipal elections. Moreover, the party has staked its survival in power on continual high growth - enormously risky when one considers the volatile nature of world economics.
Given all of this, it seems safe to say that at 65, the New China is hardly ready for retirement. But what it will look like at 100 is anybody's guess.
At 65, China coming of age as a superpower
Posted: Friday, October 3, 2014, 1:08 AM
By Charles Desnoyers
This week marked the 65th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. After more than a century of humiliation, first at the hands of Western powers seeking trade and concessions, then by the Japanese seeking resources and territory, Mao Zedong proclaimed, "We have stood up!"
China had finally thrown off the yoke of what Mao called its "semi-colonial" status and was about to forever change what he termed its "semi-feudal" society.
Here in the United States, the age of 65 is generally seen as a watershed for individuals. For many it marks the onset of retirement and collecting Social Security, and it is often seen as signaling the transition from middle age to senior status. For nations, of course, the same significance does not necessarily apply - perhaps even less for China, with its thousands of years of history. Still, this seems like an appropriate moment to take stock of China's latest regime, especially as the years since 1949 have seen both social upheaval on a world-historical scale and unprecedented economic growth.
It has become something of a cliché to note that, the war on terror and the problems of the Middle East notwithstanding, it will be China and its growing power and influence that will loom largest on the global stage for our country in the coming decades. Nowhere is this more true than in the realm of economics.
In 1978, Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping announced the Four Modernizations, a profound retreat from Maoist collectivism that introduced market economics as the new party policy. In February 2011, under what is currently termed "socialism with Chinese characteristics," the People's Republic of China passed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy.
In addition, China's military is swiftly modernizing and expanding its ability to project power. China's regional and global diplomatic clout have more than kept pace, and it has become much more aggressive about asserting what it considers territorial prerogatives, especially in the realm of offshore oil reserves. Most recently, it has been rapidly extending its "soft power" - the ability to wield quiet, indirect influence - in certain strategic areas.
For example, China's unquenchable thirst for resources has made it a rapidly growing presence in Africa, where it has invested heavily in extraction industries and infrastructure. In a complete cultural reversal from the Maoist years, it has also funded Confucius Institutes throughout the world - including several in our region - in an effort to foster its current vision of China's cultural heritage.
Given China's meteoric growth, with a gross domestic product that has expanded at a rate of 7 to 10 percent a year for 30 years, what does the immediate future hold for our two countries? Will China surpass the United States and become the world's economic superpower? If so, what are the implications?
Several years ago, China's heavy investment in U.S. Treasury bills was seen by many as a stealth attack on the American economy; recent U.S. allegations of Chinese hacking of American computer networks, and Chinese countercharges of such activity on the part of U.S. intelligence, suggest that competitive friction will likely increase.
Yet the picture becomes murkier as economists struggle to parse out exactly how to analyze the economic indicators of the two countries. According to the International Monetary Fund's purchasing power parity figures, China's GDP was about half that of the United States in 2012, but it's currently up to 76 percent. With America's GDP expanding at a little over 3 percent annually and China's growing at about 7 percent, many economists see China matching the United States in absolute terms by the end of this decade. The picture changes radically, however, if the measurement of importance becomes per-capita income: According to World Bank figures for 2013, China's per-capita GDP is $6,807; the United States' is $53,143.
In many respects, then, China may be seen as a superpower in the making, but a "fragile superpower," as journalist Frank Gibney once described Japan. China's power grows daily, but its problems are enormous as well. Its population of 1.3 billion puts tremendous pressure on China's ability to provide for the needs of its citizens. Still heavily reliant on coal for fuel, it has seven of the world's 10 most polluted cities within its borders. Restive minorities such as the Tibetans and Uighurs chafe at policies encouraging Han Chinese emigration into their regions and charge the government with cultural genocide.
The Communist Party itself faces increasing agitation to fight corruption and allow greater popular political participation. This week, massive demonstrations swept Hong Kong to protest Beijing's attempts to vet candidates for the city's 2017 municipal elections. Moreover, the party has staked its survival in power on continual high growth - enormously risky when one considers the volatile nature of world economics.
Given all of this, it seems safe to say that at 65, the New China is hardly ready for retirement. But what it will look like at 100 is anybody's guess.
At 65, China coming of age as a superpower
