Justin Joseph
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Asia is beginning to stand up to China with US help: Gordon Chang
This week, US aircraft carrier George Washington sailed into the South China Sea for military drills with Vietnam, which has recently been badgered by China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The US decision was a symbol of its power projection in east Asia, and a push back to Chinese muscle-flexing in the region for months, says Gordon Chang, noted China-watcher and author of The Coming Collapse of China. In an interview with DNA in Hong Kong, Chang points to an emerging grouping of states in east and south-east Asia who dont want to be dominated by Beijing and are standing up to China.
Indias move to prospect for oil off Vietnam, in an area that China claims as its own, could create friction with China, but India shouldnt flinch from defending its interests, he adds.
China and the US are testing the waters in the South China Sea with rival war games. Whats going on?
It started with the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March by North Korea, and Chinas unwillingness to have Pyongyang brought to account. It also relates to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and Chinas attempts to restrict sea lanes. Countries in the region are, for the first time, standing up to China. They dont want to be dominated by Beijing, and have asked the US to exert leadership. The US is doing that.
In a speech in Hanoi in July, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton declared that peaceful settlement of disputes in the South China Sea is in the US national interest. It was a striking departure in US foreign policy, and China felt ambushed. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi said Clintons words were an attack on China.
When US president Barack Obama visited China last year, he was seen to be soft on China. Has that changed?
The Obama administration tried to be accommodating to China, but it didnt work. Starting with that disastrous summit in Beijing in November, 2009, there were a series of hostile events. People in Washington decided theyd had enough. I think Obama still wants to be nice to China, but he finds his policy isnt working. Various elements in Washington want a change in China policy, and its happening fast!
Is the Obama administration signalling that the US is back in Asia?
It is, or at least Hillary Clinton is. There are two foreign policies in Washington: the Clinton policy and the Obama policy. Her policy seems to be working, and his is not. But in general, people in Washington are fed up of the arrogant Chinese.
China argues that its in fact the US thats overreaching into Chinas neighbourhood and provoking it
The US has been there since the end of World War-II. It has guaranteed freedom of sea lanes, which China is trying to restrict. The US has adopted a very low profile in Asia. It certainly isnt overreaching.
If thats the case, whats China signalling, and to whom?
China is signalling that it wont back down. Youd think that faced with a united coalition, Beijing would step back and divide the coalition. Instead, the Chinese are becoming more hostile. The reason: theres been a militarisation of Chinese politics. The Peoples Liberation Army had been losing ground in the political system in the last three decades; fewer and fewer generals and admirals were holding posts in top Communist Party organs. But since the middle of this decade, flag officers are gaining ground, and theyve been pushing China to adopt tougher positions. Thats created resistance in the region. Chinas civilian leadership probably realises that the tack theyre on is wrong, but they cant change because the generals and the admirals have a big influence. The forces that pushed China into a more assertive direction are preventing the country from adjusting and doing what should be done.
India is bidding for oil assets in Vietnam, and China has warned oil companies against operating in what it claims is disputed territory in the South China Sea. Could this spark tension between India and China?
There could certainly be friction, but if theres going to be a conflict, its going to be in the contested border areas.
But hasnt the Sino-Indian border tension died down since 2009?
Neither country is willing to admit whats going on, but the Chinese are becoming much more aggressive in their border patrols of Indian-controlled territories.
India, like many other countries, doesnt want to have a conflict with China; its response is very mild, and thats understandable; but Beijing realises this and presses its advantage. Yet, it will eventually overstep, and push India too far.
When India objects to Chinese projects in Pak-occupied Kashmir, China claims theyre commercial interests, not strategic. Cant India take the same line in Vietnam?
India wants oil and gas, and it really is a commercial project in Vietnam. It hasnt been using it as a strategic lever on China. But Beijings relations with Islamabad are strategic. When China helps Pakistan develop nuclear weapons, it doesnt have commercial relations; it has a long-term strategic plan to keep India off-balance.
The Chinese think theyve solved their economic problems. They temporarily bridged a difficult period, but they did so at the cost of creating problems that are more difficult to solve. Theyre going to pay an enormous price. They can postpone the inevitable, but theyre going to make the final reckoning even worse. A year from now youre going to see a very different economy in China.
Asia is beginning to stand up to China with US help: Gordon Chang - Opinion - DNA
This week, US aircraft carrier George Washington sailed into the South China Sea for military drills with Vietnam, which has recently been badgered by China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The US decision was a symbol of its power projection in east Asia, and a push back to Chinese muscle-flexing in the region for months, says Gordon Chang, noted China-watcher and author of The Coming Collapse of China. In an interview with DNA in Hong Kong, Chang points to an emerging grouping of states in east and south-east Asia who dont want to be dominated by Beijing and are standing up to China.
Indias move to prospect for oil off Vietnam, in an area that China claims as its own, could create friction with China, but India shouldnt flinch from defending its interests, he adds.
China and the US are testing the waters in the South China Sea with rival war games. Whats going on?
It started with the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March by North Korea, and Chinas unwillingness to have Pyongyang brought to account. It also relates to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and Chinas attempts to restrict sea lanes. Countries in the region are, for the first time, standing up to China. They dont want to be dominated by Beijing, and have asked the US to exert leadership. The US is doing that.
In a speech in Hanoi in July, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton declared that peaceful settlement of disputes in the South China Sea is in the US national interest. It was a striking departure in US foreign policy, and China felt ambushed. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi said Clintons words were an attack on China.
When US president Barack Obama visited China last year, he was seen to be soft on China. Has that changed?
The Obama administration tried to be accommodating to China, but it didnt work. Starting with that disastrous summit in Beijing in November, 2009, there were a series of hostile events. People in Washington decided theyd had enough. I think Obama still wants to be nice to China, but he finds his policy isnt working. Various elements in Washington want a change in China policy, and its happening fast!
Is the Obama administration signalling that the US is back in Asia?
It is, or at least Hillary Clinton is. There are two foreign policies in Washington: the Clinton policy and the Obama policy. Her policy seems to be working, and his is not. But in general, people in Washington are fed up of the arrogant Chinese.
China argues that its in fact the US thats overreaching into Chinas neighbourhood and provoking it
The US has been there since the end of World War-II. It has guaranteed freedom of sea lanes, which China is trying to restrict. The US has adopted a very low profile in Asia. It certainly isnt overreaching.
If thats the case, whats China signalling, and to whom?
China is signalling that it wont back down. Youd think that faced with a united coalition, Beijing would step back and divide the coalition. Instead, the Chinese are becoming more hostile. The reason: theres been a militarisation of Chinese politics. The Peoples Liberation Army had been losing ground in the political system in the last three decades; fewer and fewer generals and admirals were holding posts in top Communist Party organs. But since the middle of this decade, flag officers are gaining ground, and theyve been pushing China to adopt tougher positions. Thats created resistance in the region. Chinas civilian leadership probably realises that the tack theyre on is wrong, but they cant change because the generals and the admirals have a big influence. The forces that pushed China into a more assertive direction are preventing the country from adjusting and doing what should be done.
India is bidding for oil assets in Vietnam, and China has warned oil companies against operating in what it claims is disputed territory in the South China Sea. Could this spark tension between India and China?
There could certainly be friction, but if theres going to be a conflict, its going to be in the contested border areas.
But hasnt the Sino-Indian border tension died down since 2009?
Neither country is willing to admit whats going on, but the Chinese are becoming much more aggressive in their border patrols of Indian-controlled territories.
India, like many other countries, doesnt want to have a conflict with China; its response is very mild, and thats understandable; but Beijing realises this and presses its advantage. Yet, it will eventually overstep, and push India too far.
When India objects to Chinese projects in Pak-occupied Kashmir, China claims theyre commercial interests, not strategic. Cant India take the same line in Vietnam?
India wants oil and gas, and it really is a commercial project in Vietnam. It hasnt been using it as a strategic lever on China. But Beijings relations with Islamabad are strategic. When China helps Pakistan develop nuclear weapons, it doesnt have commercial relations; it has a long-term strategic plan to keep India off-balance.
The Chinese think theyve solved their economic problems. They temporarily bridged a difficult period, but they did so at the cost of creating problems that are more difficult to solve. Theyre going to pay an enormous price. They can postpone the inevitable, but theyre going to make the final reckoning even worse. A year from now youre going to see a very different economy in China.
Asia is beginning to stand up to China with US help: Gordon Chang - Opinion - DNA
