ASEAN’s strategy to handle the rise of China

[Reashot Xigwin]

Shohib Masykur, Washington DC. | Opinion | Sat, November 15 2014, 9:05 AM

Opinion News

The rise of China and its potential geopolitical impact on the Asia-Pacific region have triggered discussions on how ASEAN should react. Thus far, it is still unclear whether a rising China will act responsibly and in accordance with international law, or selfishly in the pursuit of its own interests at the expense of others. The best test of China’s behavior will be the South China Sea maritime disputes with several ASEAN countries.

Geopolitics is now more complex with the United States in its “rebalance” with Asia. This policy, which was initiated during President Barack Obama’s first term, assumes that the Asia-Pacific has become more strategically important to the US. The US set up a military base in Darwin, Australia, home to 1,300 US marines, as per a November 2011 agreement between Obama and then prime minister Julia Gillard. Under Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the number is expected to increase to 2,500 in 2016. Another move is the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the US and the Philippines, signed April 2014, that will allow US troops to be stationed in the Philippines on a rotational basis.

As a field for contesting interests among major powers, the Asia-Pacific’s stability is at stake. The regions of East and Southeast Asia have long benefited from stability to boost their economic development, with the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 10 percent over the last decade, according to the World Bank. Thus, they cannot allow this stability to evaporate. Furthermore, the stability of the Asia-Pacific is of global concern given its strategic economic role.

According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2011 the Asia-Pacific was home to almost a quarter of the world’s GDP. Meanwhile, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) predicted that by 2030, eight of the 25 top world trade routes will be in the Asia-Pacific. By 2012, APEC economies comprised approximately 57 percent of world GDP and 47 percent of world trade. Given its strategic significance, instability in the Asia-Pacific will also affect other countries across the world.

ASEAN is one of the most important actors that can shape regional geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific. Collectively, the 10 member countries are a considerable player, consisting of 626 million people with a US$2.4 trillion economy. According to the US-ASEAN Business Council, ASEAN today is Asia’s third largest economy and the world’s seventh largest. It is also the second-fastest growing economy in Asia after China.

ASEAN should use its strategic position to help maintain stability in the region and to ensure security should conflict occur. To achieve this, ASEAN can apply a dual strategy of “balancing” and “bandwagoning”. The terms were popularized among others by Stephen M. Walt, an international relations professor at Harvard University, who said states use one of those two strategies to confront external threats.

In balancing, states align with other states to collectively deal with the threats. Meanwhile, in bandwagoning, states seek security by making an alliance with the state from which a threat emanates. To avoid threats, states befriend the source of threats.

ASEAN should apply the two strategies simultaneously and ally with both the US and China. Allying only with the US will make China feel threatened and provoke it to become aggressive. Although the US might be able to provide defense should conflict occur, China’s geographic proximity will pose a more immediate danger to ASEAN countries that the US might not be able to anticipate. After draining conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US will be very cautious to engage in another war. Thus, relying solely on the US cannot guarantee ASEAN’s security.

Yet allying only with China will neglect the undeniable fact that the US is still the greatest power. And there is no guarantee that China’s economic growth will last over the long term. Thus, siding with China at the expense of the US is a high-risk move.

But will this dual-strategy work? After all, both the US and China are not naive enough to overlook ASEAN’s strategy. The answer nonetheless is “yes” as neither China nor the US wants instability in the region. Both countries want a stable Asia-Pacific. For China, instability will impede its economic development and for the US it will add another headache after the Middle East. The US also has economic interests in the Asia Pacific region. Thus, both major powers will make their best attempt to avoid conflict.

Second, ASEAN is an important partner for both countries. According to the US-ASEAN Business Council, $5.3 trillion of global trade passes through ASEAN waterways each year, around one-fifth of which is US trade. ASEAN is the fourth largest trading partner for the US, while the US is the third largest trading partner for ASEAN.

Fifteen million barrels of oil are transported through the Malacca Strait every day. Meanwhile, data from the ASEAN-China Center shows that ASEAN is China’s third largest trading partner with a total trade of $444 billion and a growth rate of more than 10 percent in 2013.

ASEAN can thus capitalize on its strategic position as a regional actor and as a bilateral partner for the US and China, by playing a brokerage role to appease the two competing major powers. The East Asia Summit, of which the US and China are members, is the best platform to apply this strategy. This forum provides room for confidence-building measures, allowing countries to discuss issues and build trust among each other.

The challenge, of course, is for ASEAN member states to unite and come up with a cohesive regional foreign policy. Given ASEAN’s wide diversity of politics and economies, this will not be easy. Nevertheless, a goal as important as this must be a priority for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his ASEAN colleagues.

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The writer is an Indonesian foreign service officer and a graduate student at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, in Washington, DC. The opinions expressed here are his own.

ASEAN’s strategy to handle the rise of China | The Jakarta Post

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Also, a message to my chinese friends:

If you seriously want to be a super power, possibly surpass the United States, you will have to be one overall. Your dependable allies have to be numerous. By dependable allies I mean, countries that are attached to you not only by strategic concerns, but more so by people, by values and ideas. This is the 21st century. People are the key word here. Gone are the days when only governments and military decided the fate of an empire. Today it is decided by values and charm.

The biggest thing you must do is to become a magnet for talented people. Just see Russia. Instead of attracting talent it loses talent to US. Garry Kasparov, the world's finest chess player (perhaps), migrated to United States, and is a critic of Putin. You may call that brain washing, in some ways it is, but this soft power is very essential to bind people. I want China to succeed. I have a spiritual connection to China. I will cry if it will fail. I seriously will. But the signs to me, are not good. Gone are the days when military will win battles. What use will be military, when your nation breaks from the within?

And for that China has zero soft power, rather negative soft power. No body believes your news channels, or your government. You have no friends on the level of people. No friends that you would want to have at least (and North Korea and Pakistan are not the friends one would like to have). Talented people are leaving China. Countries that are spiritually bound to you, that are basically you, like the whole of southeast asia, japan and korea. You are fighting them. Why?

The west has already created fissure in your spiritual and cultural sphere. Vietnam and Korea ARE CHINA. THEY ARE ALMOST RENEGADE PROVINCES OF CHINA. But you have lost one, and may lose the other.

I bleed when I see that your soft power is so missing, that leave influencing views, you are smacked by others. People falsely blame you for organ harvesting from Falun Gong, and you are not able to do anything. You are so discredited (that is your government and news authorities and any opinion leader) as a source, that no one seems considers you credible. Rebiya Kadeer blames you for taking her country (there was none, because Sinkiang or as they call Xinjiang these days, was always China) and people believe her. Not only people, but even a quarter of your own people studying abroad believe her. You are blamed for everything. And you are not able to do anything.

China has historically been the most just society in the world. It was the society with no slavery, or caste system. Yes, there was a king, but below the king generally all citizens were equal. The han dynasty even abolished all the tribes and other communities in its time, and gave everyone the name "han," which was originally a citizenship, now which has become an ethnicity. Why did China grow big at that time? Because people wanted to be a part of it. Who wouldn't? The Middle Kingdom it was. Every other tribe wanted to control and assume the mighty tittle of Zhongguo. The Mongols came, even the Manchu. All didn't rule as foreigners. They ruled as the rulers of Zhongguo. Though they essentially failed to abolish ethnicities.

Hence, everyone was treated equal even at those days. See, I accept every government needs to do a certain bit of brainwashing and propaganda, or you can call marketing. Just answer me, which brand survives without marketing? Marketing is essential, and China lags, heavily. Your marketing is so poor, that it does more harm than good. There is a way to alter public opinion. People (atleast the mob) are like goats. They have to be steered, their opinion that is to say, in a way that they themselves follow your lead.

Today, the techniques of marketing have changed. You can only steer people, influence them, when you give them the illusion of independence. And that is what is important. The illusion that the press is free and that you are living in the free world. Illusion is more important than reality itself. The west has created a good model, an ideological model, which people worship. Powerful people in democracies can still steer argument in their favor using money, and connections, all the while creating an illusion of freedom.

Want any examples? How about Global Warming? One of the most verifiable pieces of science, which is also not against any religion etc. has been totally put in doubt in the United States, by simple propaganda. That is the power. All the media in today's world is basically western, marred in the west in different ways. Some are either ideologically tied, almost religiously, to ideas of journalism and free speech, and hence anything coming from China is totally rubbished. Some are westerners themselves and are inherently biased. But just see, does China have any media close to it. Any power of culture or movies. Any dreams that it sells to people?

In contrast, just see the United States. They are playing the game better than China, the game which China has long excelled in. In the Middle Kingdom (Zhong guo) everyone was almost equal. There may be roles of status, but they were based on knowledge, closeness to the king, and material and societal well being. But they were not fixed. Those were the dark ages, when China wasn't much (and I focus much, because obviously it was aware) aware of other people outside south-east asia and north-east asia. All were mongloid. Today the world has got smaller. I don't doubt that the china of yester years would have included everyone in their dreams. But today's China doesn't. Their is almost no way to become Chinese. It has almost become based on ethnicity.

As I said earlier, and I left the point, just see the United States. It makes people American. Almost all Chinese American s have their loyalty to America not China. Some may feel for China, but not all do. Some people are also almost pathologically working against the interests of China, that is to say some people who migrated from China. As I was previously alluding to, Garry Kasparov became an american, Petr Ofimtsev became an american (yes, the same person some people were crediting for being the founder of stealth technology). What does this tell?

I plead my friends, not to be impressed by Putinesque behavior. In short term it may be correct, may acheive some thing, but overall it is detrimental. Just see what he finally acheived. He has antagonised not only Ukraine, a part that was historically russia. (yes, kiev was the old capital of the russian empire) He also antagonised everyone. Even countries who aren't displaying that fear.

Just see my country. India. Using ingenious political tools, it has effectively created an Indian identity, the way hans did. If you actually see, India in its present form has never been one. The south Indians, not only speak a total different family of language, they are also considered a different wave of migration, totally different from north-Indians. The resistance to India is decreasing. At the start there were many, but now everyone is getting integrated. Even the north-eastern India, that has never been with any territory of India, or even the influence of India. The tripura, mizos and sikkim, they are basically the chinese sphere, call India their home proudly.

This is what china needs to do. To take in immigrants, build an identity, play the game of marketing, propaganda more wisely, attract people, create a dream, revitalise culture, free creativity. Just see your cultural industry. You watch korean movies, dramas; Japanese cartoons, games; and Hollywood. We are much better at it. Hard power is useful. But politics is also very useful. The politics of identity, communities, propaganda.

Trust me, without this you will not be the superpower that you aspire and deserve to be. I have literally wept reading the "Rape of Nanking." You may not believe, but I have. You, the chinese are a very resilient people. You were basically attacked simultaneously by almost all powers, from different sides, and even amidst all the internal strife, you kept fighting. Indians gave up. Yes, my country gave up. But you kept fighting, never totally subjugated. Hence, you suffered more, much more. The most horrible thing that happened during the colonial rule over India or Bharat or North India, was the Bengal Famines, killed what may be 2 million people.

China lost 19 million people in the WW2 alone. Then you lost way more in cultural revolution, the so called "great leap forward." Millions in past tragedies, including the Taiping Rebellion to name a few. You are resilient. But I reckon, you are in the wrong phase of history. Mao wasn't really a blessing to China.

So I end my rant. A rant it is of course. But the way I see it, West will win this "game of thrones." And that day, I will weep. Again.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Did any chinese member read my post #1182?

And what do they think over the concerns raised?

 

[Sasquatch]

Did any chinese member read my post #1182?

And what do they think over the concerns raised?

Interesting post, I suggest you repost in the China and Far East this is the wrong thread for it. It could be a good discussion.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Interesting post, I suggest you repost in the China and Far East this is the wrong thread for it. It could be a good discussion.

I am new here. Can you do it for me?

 

[key-CN]

In fact China has been promoting ASEAN integration.This is to ensure stability in East Asia.ASEAN needs to be sufficiently independent，Forces outside the region to avoid interference。China, as a neighbor，We do not like chaos , such as the Middle East 's environment.America certainly want to create conflicts between China and ASEAN，To get involved in Asian affairs excuses.In fact, China and the United States should be more cooperation.No need to do so many conspiracy.Cooperation is conducive to the world economy out of crisis，Valuable than to denigrate each other.

 

[Sasquatch]

I am new here. Can you do it for me?

Done.

 

[key-CN]

To get involved in Asian affairs excuses

Everyone living in different environments，You have to accept education determines your view of things，Finally, draw the right conclusions you think.So I can not blame you.In contrast，I want to tell you This is a world of diverse cultural thought.

 

[tranquilium]

Did any chinese member read my post #1182?

And what do they think over the concerns raised?

Well, while you did raise a number of opinions, but it is just opinions. For example, your media has insisted that Chinese news is not accurate, but history indicates that the Chinese news agencies, in particular the official ones, has a much more consistent record than any of the private new agencies. Much of this owing to the fact that official news from China is actually authentic messages from the actual government instead of second hand interpretation. Make no mistake, all media has its agenda, the Chinese ones can at least be held accountable. The same thing cannot be said about private ones.

There are a number of super powers in the history and none of them becomes super power because of the "approval" from their neighbors. This is because your neighbors are often your competitors and no sane nation love to see the rise of a competitor. The super powers reached the status because they has advanced themselves to point that the competitor has no choice but to admit it and a lot of times not even that. Take US for example, even though US' economy surpassed the Europeans as early as 1900s, the Europeans only acknowledged US as a super power decades into the cold war. The Europeans are also not allies of US by choice, but because it was the only country strong enough to counter USSR.

Basically, the fundamental problem with your argument is the mistaken belief that super power status has anything to do other country's wants and whims. It is not. The road to the top lay mainly within the country itself. The competitors won't have anything good to say because it is simply not in their interest to do so.

 

[senheiser]

not every asean country has problems with china. Singapure, myanmar and thailand have good relationship with china

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Also, a message to my chinese friends:

If you seriously want to be a super power, possibly surpass the United States, you will have to be one overall. Your dependable allies have to be numerous. By dependable allies I mean, countries that are attached to you not only by strategic concerns, but more so by people, by values and ideas. This is the 21st century. People are the key word here. Gone are the days when only governments and military decided the fate of an empire. Today it is decided by values and charm.

Your assumption is 3 fold:

1. A country's power depends on the number of allies it has, rather than the number of allies depending on the power a country has.

2. It is possible to overcome prejudice and bigotry by logic or acts of kindness.

3. Ignorance of Chinese cultural influence means that it does not exist.

I suggest you think hard about what you actually know about modern Chinese culture, think hard about Chinese history and world history - not from outsiders, but from actual Chinese people, on Chinese websites - then come back.