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HO CHI MINH CITY - This past Sunday morning was the first in 12 with no reported anti-China protests in Hanoi. After arresting over 40 protesters last week, earlier warning about reprisals for protesters, the government has sent the message that they will no longer be tolerated. The United States has criticized the arrests, despite a slow warming of military ties.
Eleven weeks can be a long time. For protesters in Hanoi it was an unprecedented stretch. Anti-China protests began in May after the Vietnamese press reported that Chinese ships had cut the cables of a Vietnamese survey vessel in the South China Sea, an area where both nations claim sovereignty. They continued until last week with crowds of no more than a few hundred gathering first near the Chinese Embassy then by central Hoan Kiem Lake
to march with banners and chants decrying China's actions in the disputed South China Sea.
The protests, organized near the Chinese Embassy that had a hefty security presence, were at first allowed by the government, then stopped, then allowed again and then finally stopped last Sunday, seemingly once and for all. According to reports, neighborhood loudspeakers - most often used to play the odd revolutionary song and read local news most afternoons and mornings - advised citizens to stay away from the Sunday morning protests in previous days.
Of those who did attend, some 40 were dragged to buses. Most have now been released after questioning, though some still remain in detention. Protests in Vietnam are not common; however consensus among most analysts is that the government mostly allowed them as a way to "send a message" to China and also to let public anger have some outlet. Patriotism is also seen as a more legitimate pursuit than, say, attacking corrupt officials.
As with previous arrests of those seen as unfriendly to the regime, the United States has called on the government to release these few score of peaceful protesters. An embassy spokesperson told Agence France-Presse: "We call on the Vietnamese government to release all individuals detained for exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms." It voiced alarm at the detention of people for "peaceful expression of their views".
Hanoi maintains that "hostile forces", a mainstay phrase used to describe people and groups the government dislikes, were hijacking the patriotic demonstrations. The endorsement of them by Viet Tan, an overseas pro-democracy organization that is banned in Vietnam, may not have helped matters.
When dissidents or government critics have been arrested or sentenced previously the US has voiced its concern (though it's important to see the difference between the recent anti-China protesters and others calling for multi-party democracy, even if the government is less keen to do so of late).
Though the US openly criticizes these arrests and jail sentences, it does not sanction Vietnam explicitly, such as by cutting aid to the nation. Last year, a US diplomat did however get into a scrap with government officials. When trying to visit frail "dissident" priest Nguyen Van Ly, his legs were reportedly slammed with a car door. The assault was widely reported.
The US has taken a keen interest in the goings-on in the South China Sea and disputes between Vietnam and China, and China and the Philippines. It also very recently sold Hanoi another warship. This will go with the six submarines on order from Russia; another sign of Vietnam trying to beef up its presence in the contested area in light of China's more aggressive stance.
Vietnam expert Carl Thayer at the Australian Defense Force Academy says that "US interventions on human rights are routine. The US only has a strong bargaining hand when the Vietnamese want something."
Dissident Tran Khai Thanh Thuy was released recently after being tried then sentenced in 2010 to three years on an assault charge she called a "total fabrication". The US quickly issued her a visa and the release seemed an appeasement by an Hanoi eager for US support during its protracted South China Sea spat.
Despite the bumps in the road when it comes to human rights, the military relationship between the two nations is slowly growing.
However, experts such as Thayer have noted that it's important not to read too much into recent events such as the visit by US Navy ship USNS Richard E Byrd, the first visit by a ship to former US port Cam Ranh since the Vietnam War. It was there for a week for routine maintenance, said the local press. Cam Ranh opened for business for foreign ships not long ago.
"The development of military ties is moving forward at a slow pace," said Thayer. It was advisable not see the recent repair as evidence of an actual military relationship, he said.
Vietnam has yet to engage with the US military by conducting joint exercises by land, naval or air forces. However, last month saw 'joint activities' off the central coast that irritated China.
Any advance in military-to-military ties was dependent on an improvement in human rights, former US ambassador to Vietnam Michael Michalak noted in televised remarks on the 15th anniversary of diplomatic relations, echoing remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Both nations have an interest in maintaining harmony in the sea and will look to cooperation to further that. However, the form and extent of concessions granted on both sides will remain of interest.
M Goonan, a pseudonym, is a Vietnam-based freelance journalist.
Asia Times Online :: Anti-China protesters get the message<BR>
