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analysis: London Conference and future of FATA Prof Farakh A Khan
On the Pakistani side, dialogue has been in progress with various minor and major warlords in FATA. In the past, this strategy has not gone down well with the American policy makers, who want the Taliban and al Qaeda eliminated through the gun
An Afghanistan Conference was held in Lancaster House, London on January 28, 2010, to determine the mechanism for peace in Afghanistan. About 60 foreign ministers from 70 countries attended but two major stakeholders India and Iran were not invited. The other stakeholder the Taliban were also absent. UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen were also present. Karzai, the centrepiece after eight years of belligerent tone, talked of reconciliation and reintegration of Taliban fighters, calling them our disenchanted brothers. The proposal of a peace jirga was in the air and more than $ 140 million has been pledged by the British government and $ 500 million by other countries to buy peace. There are reports that the Taliban Quetta Shura met UN Special Representative Kai Eide in Dubai. This meeting followed similar meetings with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has consistently denied the existence of the Quetta Shura.
The Saudi government wants Osama expelled by the Taliban before they get involved in a dialogue with them. Hamid Karzai visited Saudi Arabia. He is hoping that the meeting with King Abdullah will bring peace to Afghanistan.
The Taliban leadership wants all prisoners in the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan to be released and amnesty given to the Taliban. The longstanding demand of the Taliban is withdrawal of Nato forces from Afghanistan. This is not a pleasant option for the Americans. The day Nato troops leave Afghanistan, the Afghan troops and police trained by them will take a dive into whichever camp is more powerful and it will not be Mr Karzai.
The Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 changed the social tribal structure of the people of Afghanistan and FATA. More than five million Afghans moved into Pakistan, of which one million are still in Pakistan. Power, which was in the hands of the tribes, was now with the warlords created by the flow of armaments supplied by the CIA and ISI to bands willing to fight the Soviet army. We also need to know why the Americans struck Afghanistan after 9/11 when no Afghan was involved in the dramatic incident. It would have been more appropriate if Riyadh and Cairo were targeted. Since then no Afghan has been involved in terrorist acts outside Afghanistan. For the Afghans, they are fighting an invading force similar to the Russians. The American claim of bringing in security, education, basic facilities and democracy to the poverty-stricken Afghans has proved totally false as seen over the last eight years of blood and guts. In fact, the Americans have invaded several countries in the past with similar resolve and utterly failed to fulfil these promises. Instead, the people of the invaded country were worse off than before. The UN, which sponsored the US invasion under US pressure, has to re-evaluate why Afghanistan was invaded in the first place.
On the Pakistani side, dialogue has been in progress with various minor and major warlords in FATA. In the past, this strategy has not gone down well with the American policy makers, who want the Taliban and al Qaeda eliminated through the gun. In 2004, the Pakistan Army went into South Waziristan and after allegedly losing 700 soldiers, an agreement was made with Taliban leader Nek Mohammad. A few months later he was eliminated by an American drone strike. General Musharraf came on television and showed video footage of the air strike, claiming that this was the work of the Pakistan air force. The Waziristan agreement was dead.
It is now obvious to the Americans that the military defeat of the Taliban is not possible and they are making plans to pullout as and when possible. Pakistans position is different. Unlike the US, we cannot ignore Afghanistan, which is our permanent neighbour and FATA is part of Pakistan. Pakistan has made agreements in various parts of FATA and they have worked. Presently our main concern is of North and South Waziristan, on which we shall focus and where the army is engaged with the Hakeemullah group. The Taliban is a conglomerate of tribal loyalty and warlords, major and minor.
The situation in Waziristan today is different. In North Waziristan, a strip from Mirali to Miranshah up to the Afghan border is occupied by the Haqqani group. This group is sending fighters to Afghanistan and are not fighting the Pakistan Army. It seems that the Haqqani group may have an agreement with the army. Again in North Waziristan, large tracts are controlled by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, who may also have an agreement with the army and is generally not attacking our security forces.
In South Waziristan the Tank-Jandola area is ruled by Turkistan Bhittani and Abdullah Mehsud groups. Bhittani is supporting the army and has skirmishes with the Taliban. In the southwest Maulvi Nazir Ahmed is in charge and may also have an agreement with the army. The TTP led by (now perhaps late) Hakeemullah Mehsud has its domain in the centre and north of South Waziristan Agency. The army action, Rah-e-Nijat, is taking place in the Taliban area of Hakeemullah Mehsud.
General Kayani attended the Nato commanders conference in Brussels, followed by a press conference where he gave his views regarding stability in the region. So far 2,273 officers and men of the Pakistan Army have been killed in the fighting. Pakistan had launched 209 major and 510 minor operations in 10 regions. He stuck to the idea of strategic depth, implying retreat into Afghanistan in case of an Indian attack.[/B](Edit:he did not say this!)
At the London Conference, Karzai wanted the international forces to stay in Afghanistan for 5-10 years time required to develop the Afghan army as a workable security force. He demanded monetary support for the next 15 years. The EU and the Americans want troops withdrawal to start by the middle of next year. The current international aid to Afghanistan is $ 6.2 billion, which is 45 percent of the Afghan GDP. The drug business in Afghanistan is flourishing at $ 3.6-4.2 billion and corruption is rampant while no development has taken place.
The western sources claim that Karzai does not want reconciliation but reintegration of the Taliban. For Pakistan this seems to be an opportunity to establish a favourable government in Afghanistan. Since the inception of Pakistan we always had an India-friendly Afghanistan except for a short period of the Taliban rule. Indian influence should not bother Pakistan. Afghanistan has been pampered by the US and Russia in the past and ended up in the dump.
According to Admiral Mike Mullen, the US cannot afford to lose the war in Afghanistan since the stakes were too high. He was speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee. He termed the next 18 months as crucial. Then there are US administration fear statements of attacks on the US and Pakistan by al Qaeda and the Taliban. For the next year and a half, the US shall need $ 159.3 billion for the army in Iraq and Afghanistan. The surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan shall cost $ 33 billion. As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Taliban form a small fringe of elements that can cause bomb damage but never conquer the country.
The London Conference was followed by plans to invade Marjah area in Helmand by the US-led Nato forces (Operation Mushtarak). Exodus of 80,000 people has already started to avoid being caught in the crossfire. This is a strange outcome of the London Conference.
The writer is a leading urologist
On the Pakistani side, dialogue has been in progress with various minor and major warlords in FATA. In the past, this strategy has not gone down well with the American policy makers, who want the Taliban and al Qaeda eliminated through the gun
An Afghanistan Conference was held in Lancaster House, London on January 28, 2010, to determine the mechanism for peace in Afghanistan. About 60 foreign ministers from 70 countries attended but two major stakeholders India and Iran were not invited. The other stakeholder the Taliban were also absent. UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen were also present. Karzai, the centrepiece after eight years of belligerent tone, talked of reconciliation and reintegration of Taliban fighters, calling them our disenchanted brothers. The proposal of a peace jirga was in the air and more than $ 140 million has been pledged by the British government and $ 500 million by other countries to buy peace. There are reports that the Taliban Quetta Shura met UN Special Representative Kai Eide in Dubai. This meeting followed similar meetings with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has consistently denied the existence of the Quetta Shura.
The Saudi government wants Osama expelled by the Taliban before they get involved in a dialogue with them. Hamid Karzai visited Saudi Arabia. He is hoping that the meeting with King Abdullah will bring peace to Afghanistan.
The Taliban leadership wants all prisoners in the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan to be released and amnesty given to the Taliban. The longstanding demand of the Taliban is withdrawal of Nato forces from Afghanistan. This is not a pleasant option for the Americans. The day Nato troops leave Afghanistan, the Afghan troops and police trained by them will take a dive into whichever camp is more powerful and it will not be Mr Karzai.
The Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 changed the social tribal structure of the people of Afghanistan and FATA. More than five million Afghans moved into Pakistan, of which one million are still in Pakistan. Power, which was in the hands of the tribes, was now with the warlords created by the flow of armaments supplied by the CIA and ISI to bands willing to fight the Soviet army. We also need to know why the Americans struck Afghanistan after 9/11 when no Afghan was involved in the dramatic incident. It would have been more appropriate if Riyadh and Cairo were targeted. Since then no Afghan has been involved in terrorist acts outside Afghanistan. For the Afghans, they are fighting an invading force similar to the Russians. The American claim of bringing in security, education, basic facilities and democracy to the poverty-stricken Afghans has proved totally false as seen over the last eight years of blood and guts. In fact, the Americans have invaded several countries in the past with similar resolve and utterly failed to fulfil these promises. Instead, the people of the invaded country were worse off than before. The UN, which sponsored the US invasion under US pressure, has to re-evaluate why Afghanistan was invaded in the first place.
On the Pakistani side, dialogue has been in progress with various minor and major warlords in FATA. In the past, this strategy has not gone down well with the American policy makers, who want the Taliban and al Qaeda eliminated through the gun. In 2004, the Pakistan Army went into South Waziristan and after allegedly losing 700 soldiers, an agreement was made with Taliban leader Nek Mohammad. A few months later he was eliminated by an American drone strike. General Musharraf came on television and showed video footage of the air strike, claiming that this was the work of the Pakistan air force. The Waziristan agreement was dead.
It is now obvious to the Americans that the military defeat of the Taliban is not possible and they are making plans to pullout as and when possible. Pakistans position is different. Unlike the US, we cannot ignore Afghanistan, which is our permanent neighbour and FATA is part of Pakistan. Pakistan has made agreements in various parts of FATA and they have worked. Presently our main concern is of North and South Waziristan, on which we shall focus and where the army is engaged with the Hakeemullah group. The Taliban is a conglomerate of tribal loyalty and warlords, major and minor.
The situation in Waziristan today is different. In North Waziristan, a strip from Mirali to Miranshah up to the Afghan border is occupied by the Haqqani group. This group is sending fighters to Afghanistan and are not fighting the Pakistan Army. It seems that the Haqqani group may have an agreement with the army. Again in North Waziristan, large tracts are controlled by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, who may also have an agreement with the army and is generally not attacking our security forces.
In South Waziristan the Tank-Jandola area is ruled by Turkistan Bhittani and Abdullah Mehsud groups. Bhittani is supporting the army and has skirmishes with the Taliban. In the southwest Maulvi Nazir Ahmed is in charge and may also have an agreement with the army. The TTP led by (now perhaps late) Hakeemullah Mehsud has its domain in the centre and north of South Waziristan Agency. The army action, Rah-e-Nijat, is taking place in the Taliban area of Hakeemullah Mehsud.
General Kayani attended the Nato commanders conference in Brussels, followed by a press conference where he gave his views regarding stability in the region. So far 2,273 officers and men of the Pakistan Army have been killed in the fighting. Pakistan had launched 209 major and 510 minor operations in 10 regions. He stuck to the idea of strategic depth, implying retreat into Afghanistan in case of an Indian attack.[/B](Edit:he did not say this!)
At the London Conference, Karzai wanted the international forces to stay in Afghanistan for 5-10 years time required to develop the Afghan army as a workable security force. He demanded monetary support for the next 15 years. The EU and the Americans want troops withdrawal to start by the middle of next year. The current international aid to Afghanistan is $ 6.2 billion, which is 45 percent of the Afghan GDP. The drug business in Afghanistan is flourishing at $ 3.6-4.2 billion and corruption is rampant while no development has taken place.
The western sources claim that Karzai does not want reconciliation but reintegration of the Taliban. For Pakistan this seems to be an opportunity to establish a favourable government in Afghanistan. Since the inception of Pakistan we always had an India-friendly Afghanistan except for a short period of the Taliban rule. Indian influence should not bother Pakistan. Afghanistan has been pampered by the US and Russia in the past and ended up in the dump.
According to Admiral Mike Mullen, the US cannot afford to lose the war in Afghanistan since the stakes were too high. He was speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee. He termed the next 18 months as crucial. Then there are US administration fear statements of attacks on the US and Pakistan by al Qaeda and the Taliban. For the next year and a half, the US shall need $ 159.3 billion for the army in Iraq and Afghanistan. The surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan shall cost $ 33 billion. As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Taliban form a small fringe of elements that can cause bomb damage but never conquer the country.
The London Conference was followed by plans to invade Marjah area in Helmand by the US-led Nato forces (Operation Mushtarak). Exodus of 80,000 people has already started to avoid being caught in the crossfire. This is a strange outcome of the London Conference.
The writer is a leading urologist
