Analysis : Factors involved in Recovery of Owais Ali Shah and Post Zarb-e-Azb Operation Scenario

[shah1398]

Introduction:

Owais Ali Shah, Son of Chief Justice Sindh High Court was abducted from Karachi on 20 June, 2016. The kidnappers made no contact with the family of the Owais Shah and that raised lots of confusion as what might be the main motive behind the said kidnapping. Though a threatening call that was received few days prior to abduction of the victim was seriously taken into account.

http://www.newspakistan.pk/2016/06/...aliban-probed-barrister-owais-abduction-case/

Immediate Actions by LEAs:

Upon receiving the news the LEAs in Karachi cordoned off the entry and exit routes of the city Karachi and also started snap checking plus carrying out raids in different areas of Karachi for recovery of the victim but to no avail as the kidnappers were smart enough to have left no major clues for LEAs to work on.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...ll-clueless-about-shc-cjs-son-owais-ali-shah/

This raised many speculations regarding the motives behind the kidnapping of Mr Owais and many started pointing fingers towards PPP led Sindh Govt's involvement in the case to pressurize CJ Sindh HC for release of Dr. Asim, some pointed out that it was a deliberate act to give feeling of insecurity among the elites of city and give impression that Karachi Operation had failed to deliver.

Possible Areas Under Scanner

Previously FATA was the safe heavens for all the runaway and most wanted criminals, plus many kidnapped high profile personalities like VC Islamia College University Ajmal Khan, Shahbaz Taseer, Ali Haider Gilani etc were kept in Waziristan. But post Zarb-e-Azb situation in esp in North Waziristan ruled out this area to Kidnappers. Southern Punjab was also a possible place but due to recent ops of PA in Southern Punjab this area was not safe for them anymore. Balochistan might have been considered but due to active presence of FC in almost whole Balochistan, it might have been an option for them. Interior Sindh was also a safe heaven where many kidnapped victims previously had been taken but with the assistance of influentials including political entities. One of the safest area for keeping such high profile kidnappees in the end comes out Afghanistan in current circumstances and this was what focused by Intel Agencies and LEAs as if Mr Owais had been once moved to Afghanistan then it wud have been quite impossible for them to rescue him in short term.

Tactics by Kidnappers

Kidnappers tried to lure away Intel agencies and LEAs by moving the Phone of Mr Owais Shah to locations like Torkham, Khyber Agency and Miranshah. But on the contrary this gave clues about the motives of Kidnappers that they intend to shift Mr Owais Shah to Afghanistan and thats why the whole region was actively scanned by Intel agencies esp ISI and because of these actions Mr Owais Shah was recovered from Tank in KPK.

Why Tank and Why not Interior Sindh

First of all we will consider Interior Sindh. Mr Owais Shah initially might have been kept in some area of Interior Sindh and that is why no clue of him was found anywhere under the protection of any influential / political entity as he must have been kept away from radar by keeping him at one safe place, hence making job of LEAs more difficult. But when Rangers started activity in Larkana then Kidnappers might have become vary of the fact that noose is being tightened against them.

http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/345222-Larkana-Rangers-arrest-10-including-Asad-Kharals

As kidnappers started movement hence it was natural that they would come under radar of Intel agencies esp ISI and as Intel agencies were already active in areas as mentioned so Mr Owais Shah was recovered from Tank area of KPK while on move. Tank might have been a transit route for the Kidnappers as from there they might have been planning to move Mr Owais to Afghanistan most probably via South Waziristan by concealing him by some means or even keeping him there for sometime. This was risk kidnappers were willing to take as this was the last choice as "Best amongst Worst" with even presence of Pakistan Army in South Waziristan, though least than North Waziristan.

Conclusion

Mr. Awais Shah was reportedly kidnapped by a faction of TTP whose demands had to be release of some high profile terrorists in bargain but its highly possible that Mr Owais Shah was kidnapped by some influential / political entities in Sindh for their own interests but later on handed them over to TTP (reports suggest serious nexus of both even in past), as those entities might have got freaked out due to Rangers action in Larkana. The whole scenario points towards one fact that Ops Zarb-e-Azb, Intel borne operations, FC actions in Balochistan and most importantly action of Rangers in Karachi have made life of all sorts of criminals esp the organised gang type ones very difficult. Pakistan Army had made this issue as matter of prestige as the recovery was spearheaded by none other than GD ISI himself and COAS himself was awake at night to break the news to family of Mr. Owais Shah regarding the safe recovery of him. One fact is for sure that Govt should keep supporting all LEAs and Intel Agencies esp politically if they are really interested in bringing in long lasting peace to Pakistan and eliminate the menace of terror for ever, under active participation of Pak Army under Gen Raheel Sharif.

Note: This is personal analysis. All members are more than welcome to chip in or even negate the points mentioned above through facts and figures.

 

[Mrc]

Introduction:

Owais Ali Shah, Son of Chief Justice Sindh High Court was abducted from Karachi on 20 June, 2016. The kidnappers made no contact with the family of the Owais Shah and that raised lots of confusion as what might be the main motive behind the said kidnapping. Though a threatening call that was received few days prior to abduction of the victim was seriously taken into account.

http://www.newspakistan.pk/2016/06/...aliban-probed-barrister-owais-abduction-case/

Immediate Actions by LEAs:

Upon receiving the news the LEAs in Karachi cordoned off the entry and exit routes of the city Karachi and also started snap checking plus carrying out raids in different areas of Karachi for recovery of the victim but to no avail as the kidnappers were smart enough to have left no major clues for LEAs to work on.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...ll-clueless-about-shc-cjs-son-owais-ali-shah/

This raised many speculations regarding the motives behind the kidnapping of Mr Owais and many started pointing fingers towards PPP led Sindh Govt's involvement in the case to pressurize CJ Sindh HC for release of Dr. Asim, some pointed out that it was a deliberate act to give feeling of insecurity among the elites of city and give impression that Karachi Operation had failed to deliver.

Possible Areas Under Scanner

Previously FATA was the safe heavens for all the runaway and most wanted criminals, plus many kidnapped high profile personalities like VC Islamia College University Ajmal Khan, Shahbaz Taseer, Ali Haider Gilani etc were kept in Waziristan. But post Zarb-e-Azb situation in esp in North Waziristan ruled out this area to Kidnappers. Southern Punjab was also a possible place but due to recent ops of PA in Southern Punjab this area was not safe for them anymore. Balochistan might have been considered but due to active presence of FC in almost whole Balochistan, it might have been an option for them. Interior Sindh was also a safe heaven where many kidnapped victims previously had been taken but with the assistance of influentials including political entities. One of the safest area for keeping such high profile kidnappees in the end comes out Afghanistan in current circumstances and this was what focused by Intel Agencies and LEAs as if Mr Owais had been once moved to Afghanistan then it wud have been quite impossible for them to rescue him in short term.

Tactics by Kidnappers

Kidnappers tried to lure away Intel agencies and LEAs by moving the Phone of Mr Owais Shah to locations like Torkham, Khyber Agency and Miranshah. But on the contrary this gave clues about the motives of Kidnappers that they intend to shift Mr Owais Shah to Afghanistan and thats why the whole region was actively scanned by Intel agencies esp ISI and because of these actions Mr Owais Shah was recovered from Tank in KPK.

Why Tank and Why not Interior Sindh

First of all we will consider Interior Sindh. Mr Owais Shah initially might have been kept in some area of Interior Sindh and that is why no clue of him was found anywhere under the protection of any influential / political entity as he must have been kept away from radar by keeping him at one safe place, hence making job of LEAs more difficult. But when Rangers started activity in Larkana then Kidnappers might have become vary of the fact that noose is being tightened against them.

http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/345222-Larkana-Rangers-arrest-10-including-Asad-Kharals

As kidnappers started movement hence it was natural that they would come under radar of Intel agencies esp ISI and as Intel agencies were already active in areas as mentioned so Mr Owais Shah was recovered from Tank area of KPK while on move. Tank might have been a transit route for the Kidnappers as from there they might have been planning to move Mr Owais to Afghanistan most probably via South Waziristan by concealing him by some means or even keeping him there for sometime. This was risk kidnappers were willing to take as this was the last choice as "Best amongst Worst" with even presence of Pakistan Army in South Waziristan, though least than North Waziristan.

Conclusion

Mr. Awais Shah was reportedly kidnapped by a faction of TTP whose demands had to be release of some high profile terrorists in bargain but its highly possible that Mr Owais Shah was kidnapped by some influential / political entities in Sindh for their own interests but later on handed them over to TTP (reports suggest serious nexus of both even in past), as those entities might have got freaked out due to Rangers action in Larkana. The whole scenario points towards one fact that Ops Zarb-e-Azb, Intel borne operations, FC actions in Balochistan and most importantly action of Rangers in Karachi have made life of all sorts of criminals esp the organised gang type ones very difficult. Pakistan Army had made this issue as matter of prestige as the recovery was spearheaded by none other than GD ISI himself and COAS himself was awake at night to break the news to family of Mr. Owais Shah regarding the safe recovery of him. One fact is for sure that Govt should keep supporting all LEAs and Intel Agencies esp politically if they are really interested in bringing in long lasting peace to Pakistan and eliminate the menace of terror for ever, under active participation of Pak Army under Gen Raheel Sharif.

Note: This is personal analysis. All members are more than welcome to chip in or even negate the points mentioned above through facts and figures.

Its a good analysis.. i just want to add that this was a highly professional op by looks of things..they probably knew of the house he was kept in but did not move in due to fear of harming the hostage..

They waited for hostage to be moved... thus catching kidnapers off guard...

Highly successful and professional op... job well done