NOTE: This is an analysis piece that utilizes publicly available information to draw conclusions. The author does not have access to any secret, classified, or non-publicly disclosed information. As is the case with all such analysis, there is a margin of error in the conclusions drawn. The reader is advised to take this into consideration and use personal intellect and knowledge to draw individual conclusions.
America has a well known history of contracting marriages of convenience with fundamentalist Islamic regimes. From Saudi Arabia to Iran, Islamists have been brought to power under American auspices. Currently, we are seeing an increasing dialog between America and Taliban in Afghanistan. Here we try to interpret recent developments in the region and understand their implications for Pakistan.
The fundamental problem that America has faced in Afghanistan is corruption and incompetence of the government. In contrast, the Americans have observed the consistent rise of Taliban based on constant capability development and cunning planning. Coupled with a fundamentally principled approach that sets them apart from the likes of ISIS, an impartial American observer must give guarded respect to the temerity, audacity, and tenacity of the Afghan Taliban.
Before proceeding further, let us recap US interests in Afghanistan. The ultimate American aim is to control and influence the geographical region from South Asia (Pakistan) to Central Asia. As part of this grand aim, the US wants to see a secular, denuclearized Pakistan that has definite Western leanings, and poses no threat to the regional American pawn against China - India.
So what would be the most extreme step the US may take to control Afghanistan? Make friends with the competent enemy. To this effect, the rise of an American sponsored Taliban is definitely possible. If Russia and China fail to woo them, this possibility will certainly transform into reality.
What would be the features of such an alliance? First of all, America would enter a peace agreement that guarantees the Taliban will neither attack Western interests, nor harbor elements that plan and conduct such attacks. It is to be noted, that the recent pronouncement of the European Union stating blasphemy is not free speech sets up a favorable environment for such an agreement. In return, America would grant both military and economic aid to the Taliban to establish an Islamic government. Of course, this economic aid will come from mining Afghanistan's extensive mineral wealth, just as the Saudi petrodollars come from oil.
What would be the implications for Pakistan if this comes to pass? Let us recall that Pakistan today holds little to no leverage over the Afghan Taliban. What we have today is a history replete with unreliability in providing support, deceitful manipulation by withholding the news of Mullah Omar's demise, and cunning control by holding their top leadership prisoners. Today, those prisoners are free men slated for power backed by the Americans. This author hopes they were treated well during their stay in Pakistan!
As counterpoint to this development, we see an increasingly secular Pakistan, whose top leadership has a limited, Westernized notion of Islam. They have already shown their true colors on the matter of Asia Mal'oona, and are expected to further act on the Western agenda in guise of the National Action Plan. And to top it all off, the fence being erected along the Afghan border is not acceptable to any stakeholder in Afghanistan, including the Taliban. Pakistan today is not a natural ally to any faction in the political mess that is Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, the one and only natural ally that a secular Pakistan will find in the entire region is China.
And so the picture emerges. A well equipped, well trained, competent Taliban holding anti-Pakistan sentiments, who have historical bones to pick with us and over whom we hold no leverage. To top it off, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan now enjoys sanctuary in Afghanistan, along with elements of ISIS. Add a bit of CIA pot stirring into the mix, and we have a potent mixture that will blow up on our faces. Causing a conflict between a highly Islamic Afghanistan and an increasingly secular and liberal Pakistan would be the ultimate revenge by the US which accuses Pakistan of double cross and back-stabbing.
It is then shocking how the Pakistani leadership has willingly given away its influence in Afghanistan. From releasing the Taliban top leadership on American demands, to construction of the fence, to completely distancing itself from the Afghan endgame, to failure in ensuring the safety of Maulana Sami-ul-Haq, Pakistan's vested interests have been systematically destroyed. The reader should make no mistakes - America will do everything in its power to ensure Pakistan is no longer a stakeholder in Afghanistan. What could have been a strategic advantage has been turned into potential risk.
The only ray of hope today is the Russian and Chinese interest. Both great powers understand the implications of an American backed Taliban in their neighborhood. For China, the stakes are higher because of the proximity of Xinjiang and the potential of Taliban action. At this point, we can only hope that our allies will gain influence and control over a region that was once considered our backyard.
