Afghanistan: As US retreats, India needs plan B

[Bl[i]tZ]

Ok bilal, lets talk about the future of Afghanistan and the Indian role. Lets quickly write some scenarios and discuss from there on

1. America pulls out fully owing to the pressure at home. This means US looses everything that they fought for in Afghanistan - 1% chances

2. America maintains a small presence after 2014 - changing tactics from CI to CT. 98.9% chances
That's what the noises in Washington seem to be saying.

3. America goes into a low level confrontation with Pak. 0.1 % chances

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

If scenario no. 3 happens -

India has to do only one thing - get a tub of popcorn and watch US do covert operations in Pak

---------- Post added at 12:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 AM ----------

If scenario no. 2 happens

Even here India doesn't have to do anything really, since US objectives align with ours which is Afghanistan shouldn't become a place where terrorists are given safe havens. We can help with our developmental projects and wish US good luck in its endeavors.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

not a chance of that happening....i think the APC conference addressed and discussed (albeit not in detail or specifics) what Pakistan's reaction to any misadventure would be.

the Americans are not stupid people; they know this as well

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

It is only scenario 1 that is most troubling for India where I see a proxy war between India and Pakistan with other regional players involved.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

WRT scenario 1 -- what has (NATO) fought for in Afghanistan?

the successes they made in early 2000s have basically been trashed, since not only Afghanistan is seeing a surge in violence; but also you have so many turncoats in the ''Army'' , police, and even in official positions

Karzai even woke up and is chirping a different tune now, funnily enough.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

not a chance of that happening....i think the APC conference addressed and discussed (albeit not in detail or specifics) what Pakistan's reaction to any misadventure would be.

the Americans are not stupid people; they know this as well

Oh really! We saw your retaliation after OBL raid. Let me help clear some doubts.

A Spokesman of ISPR has contradicted the story published in a section of the press captioned “ Pakistan will be forced to retaliate” ,CIA chief told, and said that the contents of the story and remarks attributed to DG ISI are factually incorrect and misleading. Media should refrain from speculative reporting on such sensitive issues related to national security.
http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=1857

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

It is only scenario 1 that is most troubling for India where I see a proxy war between India and Pakistan with other regional players involved.

i don't think india will gain from proxy war with Pakistan in Afghanistan....it will only damage you and your interests, so i dont think it would be smart to hope or opt for such a wreckless move

things would get to (as DG-ISI put it) a ''point of no return''

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Bottomline is whoever comes in power, US would not let them sponsor any form of terrorism. That is what precisely India wants. If Pakistan wants to defeat India it has to defeat US first and then settle the score in a proxy war but that is a hypothetical situation.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Oh really! I didn't think so -
A Spokesman of ISPR has contradicted the story published in a section of the press captioned “ Pakistan will be forced to retaliate” ,CIA chief told, and said that the contents of the story and remarks attributed to DG ISI are factually incorrect and misleading. Media should refrain from speculative reporting on such sensitive issues related to national security.
:: ISPR :: Inter Services Public Relations - PAKISTAN

it's only you who brought up ''retaliation''

though i can assure you that like any country would, if attacked, Pakistan will react accordingly and take whatever steps necessary to defend the country

the indians know this already, since we had to deal with their saber-rattling and chest-thumpery in the past ---one which, quite comically, cost them many troops' lives despite the fact that no fire was exchanged!

---------- Post added at 11:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:44 PM ----------

Bottomline is whoever comes in power, US would not let them sponsor any form of terrorism. That is what precisely India wants. If Pakistan wants to defeat India it has to defeat US first and then settle the score in a proxy war but that is a hypothetical situation.

Pakistan also has an interest to see to it that neither Afghanistan nor its own soil is used to sponsor any form of terrorism.

unfortunately, as we see it your country has been more of a problem than a solution. It is unfortunate, actually.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

it's only you who brought up ''retaliation''

though i can assure you that like any country would, if attacked, Pakistan will react accordingly and take whatever steps necessary to defend the country

the indians know this already, since we had to deal with their saber-rattling and chest-thumpery in the past ---one which, quite comically, cost them many troops' lives despite the fact that no fire was exchanged!

ISPR doesn't say so. What they seem to be saying is they never said they'll retaliate.

Agreed, case of India is different. We don't have missile defense as of today and a losing Pak can escalate it to the nuclear theater.

Plus if there is a war we lose investments, Pakistan has nothing to lose - their economy is beyond failing.

US can conduct operations and their President can speak to the world that they got OBL deep inside Pakistan and upload it on youtube. India obviously can't do that.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Pakistan also has an interest to see to it that neither Afghanistan nor its own soil is used to sponsor any form of terrorism.

unfortunately, as we see it your country has been more of a problem than a solution. It is unfortunate, actually.

I concur. LeT is sponsored by India to destabilize Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Haqqanis are used by US to destabilize North Waziristan.

What have you been listening to?

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

i don't think india will gain from proxy war with Pakistan in Afghanistan....it will only damage you and your interests, so i dont think it would be smart to hope or opt for such a wreckless move

things would get to (as DG-ISI put it) a ''point of no return''

India loses nothing by being in a confrontation with Pakistan , seriously there is nothing that PAKISTAN CAN DO EXCEPT KILL A FEW OF OUR PEOPLE discretely( cowardly ) every now and then .As it is , it isn't something Pakistan has not been doing all these years but has not been able to make any difference to India .Pakistan just does not have that capability .You guys sometimes forget your size.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

I am posting something i have mentioned before on this forum which happens to be quite relevant to this thread ,

Do Pakistanis really think that Americans after having thousands of their soldiers die in this war will completely abandon this country just to allow things to get back to where they were ?

Do you really think so ? I know you are intelligent enough, they wont.

There is too much at stake in Afghanistan for not only USA but Europe , Iran , Russia and India as well . None of these countries want to see Taliban to become strong in Afghanistan again because that would be a nightmare for them and a paradise for terrorists .

Pakistan alone no matter how much it tries will not be able to counter the influence of all those nations. You know it as well .

You have to deal with one fact and so do all Pakistanis , All the countries above listed will never allow the Taliban to come back to power in Afghanistan again , even if they manage to do that the NATO will be back in Afghanistan in no time and you know how much time it took for them to overthrow the Talib government in 2001 , a few days if i remember correctly ?

Americans have not even left Germany , Japan and Korea completely after many decades during which they faced many recessions , you think they will leave Afghanistan ?

So yeah thats about it . Its better for Pakistan to accept this reality and accept the fact that all of Afg's neighbours will have good relations with them and try to maintain good relations with the Afghan civilian govt. Your support to the Taliban has already alienated the average Afghan , don't make the situation any worse for yourself and help your own cause .

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Afghans seem to be saying that its it ISI who assassinated Prof Rabbani

Kabul to Drop Trilateral Peace Effort - WSJ.com

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Pakistan Armed Forces are always ready, and trained to fight and kill the enemy.

like any other Armed Forces, really.

the US operation was a rude awakening, one that hurt their interests. They understand why. Unfortunately, the lack of communication between the Pentagon and the State Department is becoming more evident. And in fact, Hillary Clinton blushed and turned red at the same time when she implied that without Pakistani cooperation, ''victory'' in Afghanistan is not attainable. 2 questions that come to my mind are

a.) how do they define victory

b.) why (or rather how CAN) they use media-'diplomacy' with Pakistan and then expect Pakistan to cooperate


Pakistan can retaliate if and whenever the order is given by the government. That applies as much to hindustan as it does to ANY other force in the region --invited or uninvited. I can assure you on that.