Afghanistan - Alternative futures and their implications.

[VCheng]

following the Indian example.. I hope someone sets up cultural centers in any Indian neighboring country and looks after the guests that start finger fcking it because it feels bored and left out since we stopped the cross border infiltration in Kashmir.

Well, there is nothing preventing Pakistan from doing so, is there? The only problems are that it costs money and takes international heft to deal with the fallout. Pakistan stopped cross border infiltration not out of the goodness of its heart, but because the consequences were getting too much to bear. India now of course sees the opportunity to tie up Pakistan in its western backyard, and naturally can be expected to take full advantage of the situation.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Well, there is nothing preventing Pakistan from doing so, is there? The only problems are that it costs money and takes international heft to deal with the fallout.

any price will do because the nonaction costs us dearly

these specially pampered guests of Indian cultural centers have been targeting both CHiniese and American citizens and officials in Paksitan to cause a fallout between Pakistan and these countries. in Mehran Base our men put their lives in danger and stood in front of the bullets as we were escorting out the Americans out of the base. sadly the Chinese American climber was not so lucky when the similar group struck at the climbers in northern area resulting in the massacre of those mountaineers

so my dear.. if I can hurt the Indians so bad that it becomes really unfeasible for them to launch any such attacks on Pakistan through their proxies that results in not only the national disgrace but he deaths of our international guests then I will really go ahead with that because that is the mentality I am getting from Indians, their army is restless , their intelligence is restless and is against any move from Indian government to give Pakistan any relief. while you and 35 puncture guy mock us over our strategic depth.... the Indians want to establish a base in Afghanistan with a standing army of 200K men to teach Pakistan a lesson from both sides. Hawks rule in India right now and the songs of peace are only one sided and from Pakistan,.. it aint helping sorry.


tomorrow they might try to attack one of the drone or CIA bases in Pakistan so I will really like to take some preemptive action which makes them think that its not worth the risk of loosing a perfectly functioning consulate along the Pak Afghan border.

 

[VCheng]

any price will do because the nonaction costs us dearly

these specially pampered guests of Indian cultural centers have been targeting both CHiniese and American citizens and officials in Paksitan to cause a fallout between Pakistan and these countries. in Mehran Base our men put their lives in danger and stood in front of the bullets as we were escorting out the Americans out of the base. sadly the Chinese American climber was not so lucky when the similar group struck at the climbers in northern area resulting in the massacre of those mountaineers

so my dear.. if I can hurt the Indians so bad that it becomes really unfeasible for them to launch any such attacks on Pakistan through their proxies that results in not only the national disgrace but he deaths of our international guests then I will really go ahead with that because that is the mentality I am getting from Indians, their army is restless , their intelligence is restless and is against any move from Indian government to give Pakistan any relief. while you and 35 puncture guy mock us over our strategic depth.... the Indians want to establish a base in Afghanistan with a standing army of 200K men to teach Pakistan a lesson from both sides. Hawks rule in India right now and the songs of peace are only one sided and from Pakistan,.. it aint helping sorry.


tomorrow they might try to attack one of the drone or CIA bases in Pakistan so I will really like to take some preemptive action which makes them think that its not worth the risk of loosing a perfectly functioning consulate along the Pak Afghan border.

I mock no one Sir. I merely take a dispassionate and fair view of all sides of the situation, that is all.

Of course India would love to turn strategic depth into a vise from both the west and east for Pakistan. And whatever they can do in this regard, they will. It is only to be expected. Equally, it is for Pakistan to counter this strategy because being caught in such a vise would be thoroughly unpleasant on many levels. The time for being pre-emptive seems to have passed, and I can see Pakistan being forced into a reactive stance on its western border for the next few years.

There is no doubt that India is dealing from a position of strength, and therefore is unlikely to compromise. It is for Pakistan to see what concessions it can eke out from its disadvantaged position. Having said that, I would expected Pakistan to be able to do the most with the least given its mindset, but only if it can remain united within its borders from a political standpoint.

Yes, the next few years will be crucial.

 

[HRK]

I think such a question should be answered by someone like @Irfan Baloch who would like to support them.

My dear I could have ask the same to @Irfan Baloch , if I had some doubts or short of understanding regarding the Pakistan's position in Afghanistan.

That question was asked to 'you' because, I wanted to know about 'your understanding' of the political & strategic compulsion of Pakistan in Afghanistan.

Sometimes people criticize just for the sake of criticism, without proper understanding the matter & the position of parties involve in it, this term "Good Taliban" was not coined by Pakistan nor it was specific for Pakistan only, just as example Mullah Abdul Salam Zaif was Good Taliban for US & India, Mullah Abdual Ghani Braradr was and 'is' a good Taliban for US and Afghanistan, 'Abdulla Meshood' was a good Taliban for US but at the same time Haqqani are considered as "Bad Taliban"

so whats makes one Taliban Good and the other Bad ..... ???

Its interest my dear.... just interest of different players involve in the game of Buzkashi in Afghanistan.

Generally speaking the term "Good Taliban" refers to the non-combatant or political segment of Taliban, as it was thought in some quarters of US and Pakistan that they might be helpful to construct a 'Desired Political Future' of Afghanistan. In short terminology 'Good Taliban' indicate the towards 'Good Elements' within Taliban.

So what matter most is the 'Good Elements of Afghan Society' who could be helpful in the achievement of certain Targeted Objectives or Interests, here one must understand that not all the players have the same or common objectives or interests therefor each player maintain their own list of Good Elements as per their interests, different from others.

On the side note I would like to say that US failed in Afghanistan not because of Pakistan, but they failed due to their failure in the establishment of common objectives 'serving minimum interest of all the players involved in Afghanistan'. They allowed 'different centers' to 'pursue their agenda' at the 'cost of others'.

Now from Pakistan's perspective who are the Good Elements ..... ???

Those who can occupy the Political and Governing space in Afghanistan & can deny the foreign elements to use that available space against the 'interest of the neighbours of Afghanistan' at first, secondarily other regional countries'.

It does not matter if those Good elements come from Taliban or other faction of Afghan society.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

There is no doubt that India is dealing from a position of strength, and therefore is unlikely to compromise. It is for Pakistan to see what concessions it can eke out from its disadvantaged position. Having said that, I would expected Pakistan to be able to do the most with the least given its mindset, but only if it can remain united within its borders from a political standpoint.

.

And thats where a country like America can also help e.g. like it did when it rubbished the obnoxious suggestion by Indian "journalists" that some how Pakistan and ISI were involved in the ISIS seizing the university hospital in Iraq that happened to have radiology section hence some radioactive material.
such peaceful and innocent gestures by Indian machinery only add to our "mindset"... instead of saying tut tut to that I think its only fair to expect uncle Sam to address the cause as well.

 

[VCheng]

And thats where a country like America can also help e.g. like it did when it rubbished the obnoxious suggestion by Indian "journalists" that some how Pakistan and ISI were involved in the ISIS seizing the university hospital in Iraq that happened to have radiology section hence some radioactive material.
such peaceful and innocent gestures by Indian machinery only add to our "mindset"... instead of saying tut tut to that I think its only fair to expect uncle Sam to address the cause as well.

USA will continue to work with Pakistan, of that I am sure. However, creating a sense of betrayal and double-crossing, in the political corridors of power in DC, has placed Pakistan at somewhat of a disadvantage in the current situation, but nothing that cannot be rectified. Just how sincere Pakistan is in eliminating ALL of the terrorists will go a long way in this regard.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

USA will continue to work with Pakistan, of that I am sure. However, creating a sense of betrayal and double-crossing, in the political corridors of power in DC, has placed Pakistan at somewhat of a disadvantage in the current situation, but nothing that cannot be rectified. Just how sincere Pakistan is in eliminating ALL of the terrorists will go a long way in this regard.

indeed .. rest assured that the feeling is mutual, but we always find ways to work together and I find it the best course of action.

 

[Pandora]

This paper was published by our current ISI cheif so it can give an insight into how he might deal with Indians and afghans.

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/articles/2011summer/mukhtar.pdf

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

The research paper below was authored by Major General Naveed Mukhtar in 2011. It was published in the quarterly magazine Parameters by the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, of which Major General Mukhtar is an alumnus.

He is an illustrious officer from the Pakistan Army's Armored Corps who has commanded a Mechanized Division. He is a graduate of the Pakistan Military Academy; Ecole D’ Application De L’ Arme Blindee Et De La Cavalerie, France; Command and Staff College, Pakistan; Joint Command and Staff College, Philippines; National Defense University, Pakistan; and the United States Army War College (USAWC). He also holds two master degrees in War Studies and Strategic Studies. General Naveed has served in a variety of command and staff positions at nearly every level during peace and conflict.

At present, Major General Naveed Mukhtar is serving in Pakistan's premier spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), as head of the Counter Terrorism Directorate (CT Dte).

The purpose of sharing this publication is to provide an insight into the Pakistani perspective on Afghanistan's possible future scenarios, keeping in mind its utmost relevance after the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the US and Afghan governments.

All copyrights are reserved by the US Army War College/Strategic Studies Institute.

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Afghan past, present and future = beg Pakistan for everything and expect them to look after the ENTIRE Afghan nation for eternity. Blame Pakistan for the failures of the Afghan nation and it's entire people and diaspora.

 

[niaz]

My life time of experience has taught me some harsh lessons.

- At the end of the day, interference in another country’s affairs is seldom helpful to the interfering country and never to the interfered country. However interference in the internal affairs of other countries is an everyday occurrence and an essential element of ‘Realpolitik’

- Terrorism pays. Primarily because unless a lot of people get killed and there is a significant ruckus; neither gov’t of the day nor any international body will pay much attention to the problem of the dissatisfied and /or oppressed section of the population.

- Third world is third world, not due to lack of financial or material resources but due to the paucity of ‘Human Resources’. Or in other words “Qaht ur Rajjaal” an Arabic expression meaning a drought of the men. In 21st century terms it implies lack of education, scientific & technical knowhow and of Statesmanship.

Regrettably Afghanistan has suffered from all of the above and continues to this day.

As a student of history, I have deep respect for the Afghan people. Afghans in general are endowed with the weather & landscape that breeds self- respecting, honourable and brave population. In the past Afghanistan also produced some brilliant men like Al-Biruni, Jalaluddin Balkhi (Rumi) & Jamaluddin Afghani. However, sadly Afghanistan did not have any strong leader after the death of Amir Abdur Rahman Khan in 1901.

Unlike Mustafa Kamal Ataturk & Reza Shah (father of the last Shah) who pulled Turkey & Iran out of the Middle Ages; no statesman or political / military leader was brave / powerful enough to bring ‘Age of Enlightenment' to Afghanistan. A half-heated attempt at modernization by Amir Amanullah Khan resulted in the rise of reactionary Hazrat of Shor bazaar & Habibullah Kalakani aka ‘Bacha Saqqa’ who marched on Kabul and deposed the King whose only offence was that his queen Soraya had removed the veil during the King’s tour of Europe in 1928.

Books such as ‘Fire in Afghanistan’ by Rhea Tally Stewart and ‘Wings over Kabul’ by Anne Baker imply that the British, then rulers of India, wanted to keep Afghanistan as a backward buffer state between India & Tsarist Russia and were instrumental in the removal of Amanullah Khan as king.

In my humble opinion; Afghanistan would be better served if all the regional players including Iran, Pakistan, India, China , Russia and the United States stop any interference in Afghanistan power struggle and leave Afghans to sort out their problems by themselves. Any economic aid should also be under auspices of the United Nations without prejudice or bias to any group or faction; especially, no Pashtun fighters going from Pakistan to help Afghan Pashtuns.

There would no doubt be bloodshed & suffering but until such time that Afghans find an Afghan solution to their problems, Afghanistan will not have peace.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Afghan area /territory is not a sperate country or people its a region we have not claimed or governed and let it run ad-hoc and this trend is not working out anylonger

• Most of their population lives in Pakistan
  
• Huge population / some come in and out
• Many want to openly travel between region and Pakistan

Why we want to make it difficult for our selves , the region is asking to be claimed

Its a normal process when a country takes over ungoverned land adjacent to it due to lack of management