Afghan Leader Knocks On India's Door After Pakistan Disappointment

[pakistani342]

Article here, excerpts below:

...

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has tried striking up a new relationship with neighboring Pakistan by resisting reliance on its archival India.

But after Islamabad failed to deliver to the negotiating table leaders of the Afghan Taliban who are believed to be hiding in Pakistan, Ghani is in now in India to renew Kabul's alliance with New Delhi.

...

Aditi Malhotra, a Germany-based Indian security expert, says Ghani's policy of appeasing Pakistan, particularly its powerful army, has not helped in improving the security situation in Afghanistan but has only strained relations between Kabul and New Delhi.

"Ghani has been cozying up to the Pakistan Army with the hope it will be able to have a genuine chance at achieving success with [negotiating peace with] the Taliban," Malhotra told RFE/RL’s Gandhara website. "Only earning 'empty promises' from Pakistan has brought in a realization that cozying up to Pakistan at the cost of straining relations with India will not be beneficial in the long term."

Malhotra says terrorist attacks in Afghanistan have not decreased. She added that the attack in Jalalabad on April 18, which killed 35 people and injured 100 more, awakened Afghanistan to the urgency of dealing with the terrorist threat.

Ahmad Rashid, a prominent Pakistani journalist, agrees. He says Ghani is under enormous domestic pressure to either get concrete help from the Pakistani Army and the country's premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), on holding meaningful peace talks with the Taliban or to change his approach toward Pakistan.

"He [Ghani] told the Americans quite frankly during his trip to Washington [in March] that he can only continue this policy of good will and friendship perhaps for another couple of months," Rashid said. "Beyond that, I will not be able to do it. Because I will have to turn it around; otherwise people will topple me."

...

"India and Afghanistan have enjoyed a long history of partnership, and Ghani's testing waters in Pakistan will not impede its relations with New Delhi in the long term," she said.

 

[asquare]

Article here, excerpts below:

...

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has tried striking up a new relationship with neighboring Pakistan by resisting reliance on its archival India.

But after Islamabad failed to deliver to the negotiating table leaders of the Afghan Taliban who are believed to be hiding in Pakistan, Ghani is in now in India to renew Kabul's alliance with New Delhi.

...

Aditi Malhotra, a Germany-based Indian security expert, says Ghani's policy of appeasing Pakistan, particularly its powerful army, has not helped in improving the security situation in Afghanistan but has only strained relations between Kabul and New Delhi.

"Ghani has been cozying up to the Pakistan Army with the hope it will be able to have a genuine chance at achieving success with [negotiating peace with] the Taliban," Malhotra told RFE/RL’s Gandhara website. "Only earning 'empty promises' from Pakistan has brought in a realization that cozying up to Pakistan at the cost of straining relations with India will not be beneficial in the long term."

Malhotra says terrorist attacks in Afghanistan have not decreased. She added that the attack in Jalalabad on April 18, which killed 35 people and injured 100 more, awakened Afghanistan to the urgency of dealing with the terrorist threat.

Ahmad Rashid, a prominent Pakistani journalist, agrees. He says Ghani is under enormous domestic pressure to either get concrete help from the Pakistani Army and the country's premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), on holding meaningful peace talks with the Taliban or to change his approach toward Pakistan.

"He [Ghani] told the Americans quite frankly during his trip to Washington [in March] that he can only continue this policy of good will and friendship perhaps for another couple of months," Rashid said. "Beyond that, I will not be able to do it. Because I will have to turn it around; otherwise people will topple me."

...

"India and Afghanistan have enjoyed a long history of partnership, and Ghani's testing waters in Pakistan will not impede its relations with New Delhi in the long term," she said.

The essence of his interview to NDTV, was that we want to move forward towards better ties with Pakistan. However, foreign relations can be measured concretely in terms of actions and outcomes, they are not abstract. It is up to Pakistan to act and we will measure their actions (including on terrorist sanctuaries, which he mentioned specifically) over a finite timespan. We want to engage actively and not let ourselves be overcome passively.

He also clearly said that India was not engaging in proxy war against Pakistan in Afghanistan. When asked if Pakistan was engaging in proxy war in Afghanistan, he said he didn't want to name anyone.

For me, given his projection as pro-Pakistan, it was surprisingly candid. It seems like a 'let's see if can get Pakistan to come around, if not we need to revert to putting pressure on them' approach. The ball is now in the Pakistani army's court.

 

[nik141991]

He also clearly said that India was not engaging in proxy war against Pakistan in Afghanistan.

I like this part, coming from the top authority in Afghanistan who according to Pakistani is there man

 

[That Guy]

I disagree with the article. Practical results have shown progress, and negotiations are still on the table, as is evident with the resumption of the taliban office in the Qatar. The Afghan army chief's visit to Pakistan just a few weeks ago is evident enough that Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are still continuing to go on an upward trend.

This article is based on personal opinion, rather than facts on the ground. The fact is that Pakistan is no longer used as a launching pad for attacks in Afghanistan, a key promise to the Afghans fulfilled; Pakistan is helping facilitate secret Afghan talks, which is also a fact. Pakistan has also given in to Afghan demands that Pakistan open up trade between the two, a lot more than it currently is, Ghani isn't gonna risk losing it's biggest trading partner just to appease Indian concerns.

If things were going badly, we'd hear about it from the Afghan or Pakistani government (or at least officials from there) themselves, but we aren't.

 

[I.R.A]

Well well well................................. why am I not surprised?

Yep India pretty much can bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan (US and NATO are dumb not to realise this), it can help stabilize Afghanistan, but with 99% help from Pakistan.

Is Modi going to hug Ghani as well as he did Obama

 

[ito]

If Pakistan doesn't deliver, Afghanistan is back in India's camp.

 

[SR-91]

Well well well................................. why am I not surprised?

Yep India pretty much can bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan (US and NATO are dumb not to realise this), it can help stabilize Afghanistan, but with 99% help from Pakistan.

Is Modi going to hug Ghani as well as he did Obama

Modi didn't hug Obama, Obama hugged him.
Not everyone is Abe.

 

[third eye]

India's approach to Afghan leadership

 

[pakistani342]

.
For me, given his projection as pro-Pakistan, it was surprisingly candid. It seems like a 'let's see if can get Pakistan to come around, if not we need to revert to putting pressure on them' approach. The ball is now in the Pakistani army's court.

Ghani sab is NOT Pro-Pakistani - Pakistani people see through rose colored glasses of Muslims brotherhood and for a few kind words think some one is their friend.

One can see Ghani sab's older interviews where he threatens Pakistan with a three generation war (before he became president).

It's only a matter of time - it will be business as usual - plus there is no love lost amongst the common Afghans for Pakistanis.

For Pakistan and Afghanistan to get past this impasse the national narrative about each other must change and be brought in line with the ground realities.

 

[That Guy]

Ghani sab is NOT Pro-Pakistani - Pakistani people see through rose colored glasses of Muslims brotherhood and for a few kind words think some one is their friend.

One can see Ghani sab's older interviews where he threatens Pakistan with a three generation war (before he became president).

It's only a matter of time - it will be business as usual - plus there is no love lost amongst the common Afghans for Pakistanis.

For Pakistan and Afghanistan to get past this impasse the national narrative about each other must change and be brought in line with the ground realities.

I agree to a certain extent. Ghani isn't pro-Pakistan, but he is far more realistic than Indians seem to give him credit for. Ghani knows that without Pakistani support, Afghanistan will never recover, even with Indian assistance.

Will things go back to business as usual? Not if Nawaz Sharif's plan succeeds. Pakistan is already Afghanistan's largest trading partner, NS is planning on increasing it to the point that Afghanistan becomes near totally dependent (recent massive economic trade deala to Afghanistan is evidence of this). Not even the Indo-Iranian port will be able to compensate for it. NS is a savvy businessman, he knows how to fight dirty economically.

No, things aren't going to back to business as usual. Economics dictates that things won't go back to normal.

Ghani probably already realizes this, but its the best way for Afghanistan's economy to grow quickly, so he'll play along. Ghani knows the risks, and he wont ruin this one real chance of stability in Afghanistan, and peace with Pakistan.

 

[pakistani342]

I agree to a certain extent. Ghani isn't pro-Pakistan, but he is far more realistic than Indians seem to give him credit for. Ghani knows that without Pakistani support, Afghanistan will never recover, even with Indian assistance.

Will things go back to business as usual? Not if Nawaz Sharif's plan succeeds. Pakistan is already Afghanistan's largest trading partner, NS is planning on increasing it to the point that Afghanistan becomes near totally dependent (recent massive economic trade deala to Afghanistan is evidence of this). Not even the Indo-Iranian port will be able to compensate for it. NS is a savvy businessman, he knows how to fight dirty economically.

No, things aren't going to back to business as usual. Economics dictates that things won't go back to normal.

Ghani probably already realizes this, but its the best way for Afghanistan's economy to grow quickly

Economics have dictated things for the past several millennia.

Yes, as things are going Afghanistan will become more and more dependent on Pakistan - and some of the articles (haven't had a chance to post them) are citing: Pakistan has been placing (moles) in Afghan institutions for a while now. And, India's ground position will continue to wane if things continue on this trajectory.

However, Pakistanis and Afghans cannot consummate this opportunity until the narrative reflects the organic nature of the Pakistan/Afghan ground situation. Afghanistan is a devastated country/society propped up by an infusion of foreign dollars that is landlocked. Pakistan though troubled is a rising regional player.

For example an analogy is the Saudi Pakistan relationship - Pakistan a country of 180 million, a nuclear power but it defers part of its foreign policy to the KSA especially where Iran is concerned - not because Pakistan wants to - it's just reflective of our relationship with Saudi Arabia: Government to Government - People to People.

One of the prices Afghanistan has to pay is deferring its foreign Policy vis-a-vis India to Pakistan - the price is small - everything India can do can easily be substituted by KSA, GCC, Turkey, China and Pakistan. But the fact that Afghans consider Pakistan as their bete-noire hampers such shifts in narrative.