Afghan government controls just 57 percent of its territory, U.S. watchdog says

[pakdefender]

india will provide HAL Dhurv to bring the other 43% back in the control of kabuli government

 

[Jacob Martin]

I don't think thats good news.

It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.

However, Western aid and cooperation will also stop and I don't see how it will improve internal security in Pakistan.

 

[BHarwana]

india will provide HAL Dhurv to bring the other 43% back in the control of kabuli government

Latest on the halat of Afghani gov
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/two-ana-bases-under-one-month-taliban-siege-in-baghlan.483121/

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Does it take a genius to fathom this simple fact that it's destined to be doomed? Just look at the landscape. Only the folks who share their faith and hail from even tougher environment with higher motivation and objective have a slight chance. Case study: Babur Han from Fergana valley subdued the tribal chiefs and gained their support to conquer Hindistan to establish the mighty Mughal Empire!!! Match this in degree and kind, and be my guest to rule over Afganistan; otherwise, heed to Churchill's admonition: we're fighting against GOD...

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.

However, Western aid and cooperation will also stop and I don't see how it will improve internal security in Pakistan.

No in either case its not a good news for Pakistan. Its not 90s anymore. Pakistan hardly has any control on Afghan Talibans like it used to had once. Best way is to remain neutral with both Afghan Govt and the Afghan Talibans. Unfortunately the situation also depicts that Afghanistan is such a heaven for militants group like TTP, ISIS where they can easily operate at both sides of the border as Afghan Talibans and Afghan Govt are keeping their concentration against each other only thus providing them space to operate at will.

 

[Jacob Martin]

No in either case its not a good news for Pakistan. Its not 90s anymore. Pakistan hardly has any control on Afghan Talibans like it used to had once. Best way is to remain neutral with both Afghan Govt and the Afghan Talibans. Unfortunately the situation also depicts that Afghanistan is such a heaven for militants group like TTP, ISIS where they can easily operate at both sides of the border since as Afghan Talibans and Afghan Govt are keeping their concentration against each other only thus providing them space to operate at will.

I seriously wish decision-makers were as wise and considerate as you are. And I say this in all sincerity. Unfortunately, the internal situation of Afghanistan has been used as leverage and means of playing strategic games. No one bothered to think for a second about what you have written.

If you have been around on PDF for long, I am sure you have noticed the cognitive dissonance wherein so many members cheer on the difficulties and demise of the government in Kabul, all because they see them as agents of US/India and therefore inconvenient to Pakistan. No one thinks about supporting them as in their absence, the entire militant apparatus in Afghanistan will spin out of control. Pakistan has suffered already due to this and still, every time these terror attacks happen, there is more blame for the same government that Pakistanis have worked so hard to undermine for so long.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

I seriously wish decision-makers were as wise and considerate as you are. And I say this in all sincerity. Unfortunately, the internal situation of Afghanistan has been used as leverage and means of playing strategic games. No one bothered to think for a second about what you have written.

If you have been around on PDF for long, I am sure you have noticed the cognitive dissonance wherein so many members cheer on the difficulties and demise of the government in Kabul, all because they see them as agents of US/India and therefore inconvenient to Pakistan. No one thinks about supporting them as in their absence, the entire militant apparatus in Afghanistan will spin out of control. Pakistan has suffered already due to this and still, every time these terror attacks happen, there is more blame for the same government that Pakistanis have worked so hard to undermine for so long.

Well if you ask me, decision makers are finally doing what they should do that is too remain neutral. We have pushed Afghan Talibans from our land into Afghanistan, though should had done much earlier anyways that's another thing.There is hardly any save haven for them in Pakistan after Operation Zarb-e-Azb. One can easily back up my claim by just counting US drones strikes inside Pakistan after 2013. Hardly any, since there is no target in Pakistan anymore else US would had keep raining hellfires from their drones.

Now coming back to Kabul Govt, well we have our own reasons not to trust or keep faith on them since we know how much capable they are, the day US calls of the day, Kabul Govt won't last much long. At the same time, Afghan Talibans cannot form pre 9-11 type Govt in Afghanistan as well. Their resources and logistics are limited, Pakistan won't back them blindly like we used to hence remaining neutral is the best option.

Lastly coming to your point of supporting Afghan Govt, well we did and still willing too. Best is too keep advising Afghan Talibans for the talks but as I said we don't control them which other thinks. We have destroyed their save havens inside Pakistan FATA area, kick out 80% of those Afghan Talibans from our land so the dice is really not into our hands now. Its in Afghan Govt hands how to play the game now. Their enemy is right inside their border now. Best way for everyone is to negotiate and reconcile with Talibans but the million dollar question is, what does Afghan Talibans really wants ?

 

[Jacob Martin]

Best way for everyone is to negotiate and reconcile with Talibans but the million dollar question is, what does Afghan Talibans really wants

Yes, that question still remains doesn't it? What will they negotiate for? It is really one of those situations where pragmatism will have to prevail and idealism will take a back seat. If it was possible, then eradicating the Taliban would be in everyone's best interest and also the right thing to do. Who wants a barbaric bunch who oppress people in the name of Sharia staking claim to territory?

Unfortunately, the only country close enough with the capability is Pakistan, and as you rightly said you have your own priorities. So as repulsive as the concept of negotiating with the Taliban is, I think it is unavoidable.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Yes, that question still remains doesn't it? What will they negotiate for? It is really one of those situations where pragmatism will have to prevail and idealism will take a back seat. If it was possible, then eradicating the Taliban would be in everyone's best interest and also the right thing to do. Who wants a barbaric bunch who oppress people in the name of Sharia staking claim to territory?

Unfortunately, the only country close enough with the capability is Pakistan, and as you rightly said you have your own priorities. So as repulsive as the concept of negotiating with the Taliban is, I think it is unavoidable.

You cannot eradicate Talibans completely but can contain them. Afghanis are living like this since ever. That's their way of life. We like it or not.

Bringing Talibans to table is in interest of everyone. Pakistan should make sure that we keep pushing them for talks and let them know that we wont be backing you even if you govern Kabul after US with drawl. Same signal was provided to them in the form of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Meantime, US and others should provide some space to the talibans as well and some sort of agreement regarding power sharing is the way moving forward. India on the other hand, shouldn't corrupt Kabul regime minds regarding 'no' talks. If you observe carefully that's what India is doing actually. Else I don't think there is a solution to Afghan peace other than this.

 

[Jacob Martin]

You cannot eradicate Talibans completely but can contain them. Afghanis are living like this since ever. That's their way of life. We like it or not.

Bringing Talibans to table is in interest of everyone. Pakistan should make sure that we keep pushing them for talks and let them know that we wont be backing you even if you govern Kabul after US with drawl. Same signal was provided to them in the form of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Meantime, US and others should provide some space to the talibans as well and some sort of agreement regarding power sharing is the way moving forward. India on the other hand, shouldn't corrupt Kabul regime minds regarding 'no' talks. If you observe carefully that's what India is doing actually. Else I don't think there is a solution to Afghan peace other than this.

Agreed. Talks are the only way forward as military solution is out of reach. However, the way I see it, engagement with Taliban can be in the form of:

Option A: Accommodation into a coalition government with certain ministries and maybe autonomous control of some territory/province.

Option B: total control over religious issues only.

Option C: de-facto division of the country with Taliban retaining control over their own territory.

Then there is the issue of the opium/heroine trade. Whether they want to actually shut it down or not. It is a huge issue there.

I think Option C would be the most preferable. Option A also sounds okay but I don't think it will work.

 

[!eon]

It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.

However, Western aid and cooperation will also stop and I don't see how it will improve internal security in Pakistan.

If India wants to save her investment in Afghanistan, only solution is deployment of Indian army in Afghanistan.

 

[xyxmt]

57% territory controlled by Afghan govt with 50% margin of error in this assessment.

 

[NakedLunch]

57% territory controlled by Afghan govt with 50% margin of error in this assessment.

LOL! Bravo.

 

[ABCharlie]

Agreed. Talks are the only way forward as military solution is out of reach. However, the way I see it, engagement with Taliban can be in the form of:

Option A: Accommodation into a coalition government with certain ministries and maybe autonomous control of some territory/province.

Option B: total control over religious issues only.

Option C: de-facto division of the country with Taliban retaining control over their own territory.

Then there is the issue of the opium/heroine trade. Whether they want to actually shut it down or not. It is a huge issue there.

I think Option C would be the most preferable. Option A also sounds okay but I don't think it will work.

Option A wont work because the Taliban wont agree to it.

Option B can only work in a secular state. In Afghanistan, this is the same as giving all power to Taliban.

Option C, yes can work. But will be met with lots of resistance from all quarters. Both Kabul govt and Taliban are against any division of their country.

 

[Luffy 500]

Personally as a muslim I hope & dream that not too distant in the future Afghanistan joins Pakistan federation. Its the only pragmatic way for long lasting prosperity of both PAK and AF and what would soon be roughly 250+ million muslims. For that to happen PAK policy makers need to be astute and NOT resort to knee jerk nationalistic rhetoric or ethnic chauvinism. They should Work towards some sort of federalization of Afghanistan where by it would be bifurcated into several states by ethnicity. Slowly PAK can absorb the sunni & pastun dominated states while the shia dominated states can go to iran. PAK can offer these afghan sunni states some sort of special status within their union with huge autonomy eg. China type 1 country 2 system where these AF states would have their own constitution, currency(if they want), separate judiciary, fiscal policy etc. There should be free movement of goods and people between the states & PAK and PAK will control its defence, national security & foreign policy. I think Turkey can try the same in Syria too. It would be great if weaker muslim countries aggregate with culturally similar Stronger Muslim countries thereby forming large Islamic federal states where religious identity will supersede narrow ethnic nationalism & chauvinism. I believe that's the only way Muslims can stand up to hegemony of the non-muslim world.