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'8% growth needed to attain middle income status'

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'8% growth needed to attain middle income status'


'8% growth needed to attain middle income status' | Business | bdnews24.com

Tue, Nov 13th, 2012 4:50 pm BdST

Dhaka, Nov 13 (bdnews24.com) – Bangladesh needs to attain 7.5 to 8.0 percent growth along with 8.0 percent remittance growth to reach middle income country status by 2021, says a World Bank report.

The report titled `Bangladesh: Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth-Opportunities and Challenges` revealed that both GDP growth and remittances would play an important role in attaining middle income status.

The report was launched in presence of Finance Minister AMA Muhith at Westin Hotel on Tuesday.

Bangladesh in the last decade attained an average growth of 6.0 percent while the remittance growth was about 10.5 percent in the last fiscal.

The country has a vision to reach the MIC status by 2021, 50 years from its independence.

The report emphasised on more investment in physical infrastructure and human resource development, and create enabling environment for flourishing labour intensive economic activities.

Implementation of policies and institutional reforms to enhance labour productivity and skills were critical, the report added.

The importance of remittance in economic development was more evident than ever before as it contributed about 10.5 per cent to the GDP, the report said.

About 14 per cent population are working abroad, which is twice the size of what is employed in the textile sector.


"Bangladesh needs to continue to tap the global migrant market and promote safe migration in order to accelerate growth and reduce poverty at home."

Climate change and managing urbanistaion were major challenges that Bangladesh was facing and would continue to face in the future, said World Bank senior economist Zahid Hossain in his presentation.

Bangladesh needed to accelerate GDP growth and sustain remittance growth and achieve inclusive growth to reach the middle income country status, he added.

Finance Minister AMA Muhith said the biggest failure of the government was not to delegate power to the local administration.

"It is not possible to achieve 7 per cent to 10 per cent growth with centralised administration," he said.

"We also miserably failed to promote investment," the minister added.


He, however, said due to strategic reasons, the country could achieve high growth rate with low investment and was hopeful of reaching the target of middle income country by 2021.

The minister claimed that the government had substantially reduced infrastructure deficit and identified inequality as a major impediment to growth.

About export, he said it was not acceptable for a country like Bangladesh to have $27 billion earning from the sector.

"It (export earnings) should be $100 billion in the next five years."


Distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue Debapriya Bhattacharya said Bangladesh has a big domestic market and it should not only depend on export led growth.

"Our market of middle class is about $44 billion in 2012 and 120 countries in the world do not even have GDP of that amount," he said.

Political sustainability and god governance were needed to attain the goal, he added.

Managing Dirctor of Apex Footwear Syed Nasim Manzur said focus should be on creating more employment opportunity now rather than addressing inequality.

He said that the major challenge was that out of 56 million work-force, only 2.2 million were graduates, and added that the problems in education sector needed to be addressed.

About attracting foreign investment, he said Myanmar offered an exclusive export processing zone for Japanese investors in October and received $18 billion FDI commitment.

Giving example, he said Indonesia exported $1.7 billion worth of footwear in 2009 but it shot up to $3.3 billion in 2012.

"Only 87 Taiwanese and South Korean companies helped the country to achieve it and we need to focus on certain countries rather than exploring the whole world," he added.

bdnews24.com/ssz/sk/1634h
 
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100 billion export earning target within 5 year will be difficult but wont be impossible. It should have been done long ago. Country like Vietnam has attained this last year despite their fighting which ended after 1971. We must in crease electricity generations and improve infrastructure to attain more investment and accelerating GDP growth and to achieve the target 10% GDP growth as soon as possible.
 
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Bangladesh can certainly achieve that. :tup:

In fact, Bangladesh has some of the highest social indicators in South Asia, and one of the largest and youngest populations in the world. This is a perfect recipe for booming economic growth in the near future.
 
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This was featured today in world bank website

Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in Bangladesh

Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in Bangladesh

# n spite of global shocks and natural crises, Bangladesh’s economy has maintained a healthy 6%-plus plus growth rate in past years and significantly reduced the number of absolute poor.

#Bangladesh now needs to accelerate GDP growth to 7.5% to 8% and sustain 8% remittance growth to reach its aspiration of middle-income country status by next decade.


Bangladesh has managed to accelerate overall GDP growth by one percentage point on average every decade -- from 3% in the 1970s to 6% in the last 10 years. Thanks to declining population growth, the acceleration in per capita GDP growth was even higher -- 1.7 percentage points every decade. Acceleration of growth also helped 15 million people leave absolute poverty behind in the past three decades.


The country’s remarkably steady growth was possible due to a number of factors including population control, financial deepening, macroeconomic stability, and openness in the economy. Building on its social-economic progress so far, Bangladesh now aims to become a middle-income country (MIC) by 2021 to mark its 50th year of independence.
 
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100 billion export earning target within 5 year will be difficult but wont be impossible. It should have been done long ago. Country like Vietnam has attained this last year despite their fighting which ended after 1971. We must in crease electricity generations and improve infrastructure to attain more investment and accelerating GDP growth and to achieve the target 10% GDP growth as soon as possible.

I am little perplexed with the Vietnam's export figure which I have checked with other sources. Vietnam's GDP itself is only $135.411 billion, its foreign exchange reserve is only $ 12.433 billion. These two figures are almost same as those of BD. Then, how it is possible for that country to export more than $100 billion worth of goods? There must be some mistakes somewhere.

A $100 billion export is not a matter of joke. Vietnam exports of garment was only less than $13 billion. Vietnam export of rice is about 7.5 million tonnes. But, BD has also stopped importing rice, it is self-sufficient. Please check what is the reality.

BD can attain $100 billion (not in five years) if somehow some of the big Chinese textile companies invest in BD and export the products to China as well as to other countries of the world where China has established itself on a firm footing. Chinese labours have become too expensive to compete price wise against BD goods. How you guys think about the prospect of Chinese investments? A Chinese move like this will firmly anchor BD with China instead of USA in every kind of relationship.
 
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I am little perplexed with the Vietnam's export figure which I have checked with other sources. Vietnam's GDP itself is only $135.411 billion, its foreign exchange reserve is only $ 12.433 billion. These two figures are almost same as those of BD. Then, how it is possible for that country to export more than $100 billion worth of goods? There must be some mistakes somewhere.

A $100 billion export is not a matter of joke. Vietnam exports of garment was only less than $13 billion. Vietnam export of rice is about 7.5 million tonnes. But, BD has also stopped importing rice, it is self-sufficient. Please check what is the reality.

BD can attain $100 billion (not in five years) if somehow some of the big Chinese textile companies invest in BD and export the products to China as well as to other countries of the world where China has established itself on a firm footing. Chinese labours have become too expensive to compete price wise against BD goods. How you guys think about the prospect of Chinese investments? A Chinese move like this will firmly anchor BD with China instead of USA in every kind of relationship.

This year Vietnam is expected to export 110 billion usd worth of goods. Yes I was also surprised with the figure. But do not forget Vietnam is one of the fastest growing nation which will continue till 2050.

Last year Vietnam exported 96 billion usd worth of products... See the data from the right hand side chart...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
 
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This year Vietnam is expected to export 110 billion usd worth of goods. Yes I was also surprised with the figure. But do not forget Vietnam is one of the fastest growing nation which will continue till 2050.

Last year Vietnam exported 96 billion usd worth of products... See the data from the right hand side chart...

Economy of Vietnam - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So, is it true that the vietnamese export almost all their goods? If their GDP is $135 billion, how come the export can be $110 billion? It is very strange.
 
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So, is it true that the vietnamese export almost all their goods? If their GDP is $135 billion, how come the export can be $110 billion? It is very strange.

This are the export data of Vietnam of 2010 which will give you a better idea about Vietnamese export items. They export a lots of natural resources including agricultural and sea food which makes up bulk of the export items. Other items are manufacturing products, electronics item, RMG, foot wear etc.

Vietnam set 10 pct rise in 2011 export earnings


Vietnam set 10 pct rise in 2011 export earnings - News VietNamNet


VietNamNet Bridge - Vietnam targets to reach total export turnover of about $78.8 billion in 2011, up over 10 percent from 2010, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In order to achieve this target, according to economists, the orientation of key export items this year will include the group of materials with crude oil export at eight million tons, coal export at 15 million tons.

As for the group of agro-forestry and fisheries products: seafood export expects to earn $6 billion, rice export at 6.5 million tons, coffee at 1.1 million tons and rubber at 800,000 tons.

Regarding the group of processing and manufacturing products, led by apparel products and footwear, will continue to be key export commodities with export turnover of over $13 billion and $6 billion respectively.

The country also should focus on exports of new items such as seagoing vessel, mechanical products, handicrafts, processed foods, timber products, consumer goods and plastic products.

Exports of electronic products expect to earn about $4 billion.

According to the deputy minister of industry and trade, Nguyen Thanh Bien, the export results in 2010 were the "bright spots" of Vietnam's economy with total export turnover estimated at $71.63 billion, up 25.5 percent year on year.

The country had 18 commodities with export turnover of over $1 billion.

Particularly, apparel products led the group with over $11.2 billion of export turnover, followed by footwear ($5.1 billion), seafood ($5 billion), crude oil ($4.9 billion), electronic products and computers ($3.6 billion), wood-based and handicraft products ($3.4 billion), rice ($3.2 billion) and machinery -equipments – instruments ($3 billion).

Cashew, coffee, coal, oil and gas, rubber, precious stones and metals, electricity wires and cables, transport means and spare parts raked in $1-$2.9 billion.
 
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This is another big earning by Vietnam...

Telephone exports earn nearly 8 billion USD


Telephone exports earn nearly 8 billion USD

Posted on OCTOBER 3, 2012 Written by HANOITIMES
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The Hanoitimes – Telephones and spare parts ranked second among Vietnam’s top ten export earners in the first eight months of this year.

The General Department of Customs’ latest statistics showed they enjoyed a record year-on-year rise of 123 percent to 7.977 billion USD in export revenue.

For many months, they have been listed among export items earning more than 1 billion USD each, fetching 2.69 billion USD in the first quarter, up 161.9 percent compared to the same period last year, and 5.03 billion USD in the first half of this year.

Such impressive results are owing to foreign businesses, including Samsung, Intel, Cannon, Compal and Foxconn, operating in Vietnam, which make up 80 percent of the domestic market share and 90 percent of total export turnover.

Vietnam’s key export markets are the European Union (EU), Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Vietnam’s electronic sector is likely to earn an export turnover of 15-16 billion USD by the end of 2012, the Vietnam Electronic Industries Association (VEIA) forecasts.
 
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I am little perplexed with the Vietnam's export figure which I have checked with other sources. Vietnam's GDP itself is only $135.411 billion, its foreign exchange reserve is only $ 12.433 billion. These two figures are almost same as those of BD. Then, how it is possible for that country to export more than $100 billion worth of goods? There must be some mistakes somewhere.

Vietnam is a re-export hub.

Same with Hong Kong, our exports were around $400 billion even though our GDP is around $240 billion.

We are pretty much the "gateway" into the rest of China. It is a good job. :D

BD can attain $100 billion (not in five years) if somehow some of the big Chinese textile companies invest in BD and export the products to China as well as to other countries of the world where China has established itself on a firm footing. Chinese labours have become too expensive to compete price wise against BD goods. How you guys think about the prospect of Chinese investments? A Chinese move like this will firmly anchor BD with China instead of USA in every kind of relationship.

BBC News - Chinese factories turn to Bangladesh as labour costs rise

Large-scale investment is coming! :woot:
 
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I have read that China's government is moving 1 million people a month (12 million a year i.e not a huge amount of people in a country of over 1 billion so not as unrealistic as it may seem) out of poverty.

China is held in great respect and affection by Bangladeshis as a fellow Asian state and true friend, so if China in addition to moving 1 million people out of poverty in the PRC (People's Republic of China) can help move 1 million people out of poverty in the PRB (People's Republic of Bangladesh) then that will be yet another feat and achievement by the world's emerging superpower.
 
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nice :) Good luck to BD..

I think if a totally corrupt govt(congress) can do it couple of times in a sh!tstorm called India, you guys can do it for a decade at the least :)
 
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I have read that China's government is moving 1 million people a month (12 million a year i.e not a huge amount of people in a country of over 1 billion so not as unrealistic as it may seem) out of poverty.

China is held in great respect and affection by Bangladeshis as a fellow Asian state and true friend, so if China in addition to moving 1 million people out of poverty in the PRC (People's Republic of China) can help move 1 million people out of poverty in the PRB (People's Republic of Bangladesh) then that will be yet another feat and achievement by the world's emerging superpower.

I read in a study once, that overseas Bangladeshis were the most likely out of all groups to be entrepreneurs, i.e. to set up their own businesses.

Big investment is coming, and the entrepreneurial character of the Bangladeshi people can turn this into a huge opportunity.

BD is already growing very fast, but it has the potential to grow much faster in the future as well. This is an opportunity for the entire region.
 
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Well yes, the difference though from what little I know of China is this.

Bangladesh is plagued with corrupt politicians who hinder growth and development, whereas China, though also inevitably suffering from corruption like any other country, has an efficient CPC which ensures the smooth running of the country, execution of orders and implementation of long term plans.

Despite that I think Bangladesh will still flourish in the future.
 
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Bd will do fine if democracy stays. Bd has a stable govt although riddled with corruption much worse than India. If they cam somehow attract investments from China, India and other western markets they are going to middle income country much soon. Bd development is good for India.
 
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