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45 Trillion Reasons Why China Can't Challenge America’s Economic Might

Right, because the old and true scenario of the current dominant power fearing the rise of a new power is because a bunch of bills and digital credits instead of, oh, I don't know, industrial might, resource, etc.

War between top powers is never about monetary wealth. The reason is that top power are often fairly close to strength that a war is almost guaranteed to be far more costly than the gain. In this in contrast to war between major and minor powers where the spoils are sufficient to offset the cost.

Of course, back to the topic, there is a reason why private wealth is not used to measure a nation's strength. Take China's Ming dynasty for example, its private wealth is unparalleled at the time, so much to the point that 1/3 of the silver at that time wounded up in China, but at the end of the day, one of the main reasons for Ming's collapse is due to a shocking reason----the government ended running out of money and can't support its military.

This is because Ming's private wealth situation is a lot like US' situation today, ie, individual has too much money, but unwilling to do anything with it unless it is getting them more money. Even though the nation as a whole is getting wealthier, the government (which is responsibility of maintaining military, disaster relief, national coordination of project such as infrastructure) is actually getting poor. Ming's collapse also has another very worrying trend------as the private wealth owners get more money, their political influence expands in the central government where their proxies are only concerned with two things: 1.) expand their personal political power 2.) Protect the wealth of their sponsor, which means even less money for the central government and setting up unfair regulations which favors their patrons-------sounds familiar, doesn't it?

Things gets a lot worse from there as well, as the private wealth owners expand their political influence, it enters a disastrous cycle where money--->power--->using that power to setup more schemes to net them more money (often at the commoner and the nation's expense)---more power--->rinse and repeat. In fact, the wealthy elites refused to part with their money even as Ming's capital is sitting under siege of the rebelling commoners----which, by the way, is caused by said wealthy elites' action in the first place. After the capital fall, the rebelling peasants managed to execute these wealth elites by the thousands and all their money ended up in the rebel's hands. (Of course, this is the story of 东林党)

Modern historian in China recognized that towards the end of the days of Ming dynasty, no amount of reforms can actually save the empire precisely because the private wealth is getting out of hands. It is too entrenched in the political system and economies that nothing but the complete destruction of the old system can fix.

This is also why the whole US' style of general election is such a touchy subject in China. We have already know what would happan when wealth, especially private wealth, is allowed to gain political power. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt (well, more of the forced hair cut and braids), three centuries of slavery and degeneration to a semi-colony nobody until the rise of PRC in 1949.
 
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There is a very complex issue involved here. When a government is a dictatorship, it has to 'prove' its utility by achieving a great mission (like Pak generals seeking legitimacy by delivering Kashmir). CCP wants to prove its legitimacy by making China No.1 power in the world. Argument- only a dictatorship can make you No. 1. So they'll be in conflict with USA because it is democratic and is a stading example of a rival system leading over theirs.

sometime i really wonder if these guys are living in the real world or not. when did china every tell people or countries to adapt to are system, so what rival system.
 
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GDP =Wealth.Isn't this clear?
How much you earn is much more important than how much your house worth.France has more private wealth than Germany,even its population is far less than Germany.Does that means french is far wealthier than german?All these bubbles don't matter that much.
 
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There is a very complex issue involved here. When a government is a dictatorship, it has to 'prove' its utility by achieving a great mission (like Pak generals seeking legitimacy by delivering Kashmir). CCP wants to prove its legitimacy by making China No.1 power in the world. Argument- only a dictatorship can make you No. 1. So they'll be in conflict with USA because it is democratic and is a stading example of a rival system leading over theirs.

Erm, no. Chinese government frankly don't give a crap about what political system the countries run. Its top priority is and has always been long term nation interest as a whole. Everything else is just an extension of that. For example, improving education gives the nation a larger pool of talents and make it more competitive. Social benefits allows for better social stability and makes people more healthy, thus more productive.

America creates wealth by innovation...Chinese companies innovating tech can be counted on single hand..any theory of a country beating US economic might for next 100 years is utter rubbish...anything which takes down US will also take down the global financial system..it will be total chaos and war...

Making a named brand is one side of innovation. Making a manufacturing process efficient is also a side of innovation.

Industrial innovation is measured by product improvements. It is generally an incremental process which ultimately increases the competitiveness of the nation. Seeing the rapid rate of expansion of the Chinese economy and the fact is one of the most competitive force on the planet, I high doubt your assessment of "innovating tech can be counted on single hand".
 
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Bloody wrong!

The largest challenge to US' economic might comes from India.

China is not a threat. It is just a developing country with lots and lots of things left to do.

Mark my words:

India is where the sun will shine like a rising Modi on the latest polls.
 
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What Credit Suisse can do at best are estimates i.e. guess, especially when some countries like China have underdeveloped financial industry, different economic/legal structure, a currency that not freely traded vs dollar. Say how accurate can they obtain info on private assets? How they track assets of low liquidity? Non-operating assets? Intangible assets? How much assets are in the hands of state, an uniquely dominant force in Chinese economic structure, that are not listed/traded in any markets? Land lease in China are 40-99 years, no transfer of ownership, not permanent like US, how they book/evaluate these assets? If anyone knows about difficulty in getting an accurate balance sheet of private companies, think about doing that for a nation like China.

At best they can combine macroscopic data (Gross Domestic Savings, Resident Savings in Bank, Market Capitalization, Debt Levels, International Positions, Money Supply ... etc. I also have quoted before) which are limited in categories, and microscopic data which are hugely inaccurate given their own limited resources, hence don't expect anything accurate from that especially in economies hugely different from home. A lot of ignorant investment or marketing plans die in the hand of inaccurate data that they chose to believe, well let it be.

As mentioned in the other thread, this data is a derivative statistics with low accuracy, no universal standard, time-sensitive. I doubt even China's own Audit Department, Treasury Department, Land Resources Departemt or PBOC combined know how much total assets are out there. It's a statistics of no practical usage.
 
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Industrial innovation is measured by product improvements. It is generally an incremental process which ultimately increases the competitiveness of the nation. Seeing the rapid rate of expansion of the Chinese economy and the fact is one of the most competitive force on the planet, I high doubt your assessment of "innovating tech can be counted on single hand".

We must see it coming into the market...right now tech innovation is dominated by Europe, Japan, Israel and USA...
China has moved to the second phase of industrialization where it is able to offer quality and home grown tech but it still has a long way to go..
 
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the wealth distribution from the same report of credit suisse.
x axis is the net wealth, y axis is percentage of people in that wealth range for individual economies. opposite to what we were told by the media, according to this report, china's wealth distribution is very healthy, even can be described as the best in the economies in the figure.

131208i2ahzabpl6hmxrlo.jpg
 
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We must see it coming into the market...right now tech innovation is dominated by Europe, Japan, Israel and USA...
China has moved to the second phase of industrialization where it is able to offer quality and home grown tech but it still has a long way to go..

Well, like I said, innovation is not just about named brand, but it is also about manufacturing techniques, efficient organization of production asset, etc. From a technical perspective, the latters are a lot more important and innovative than the former, which is mostly a marketing thing.

When you say innovation is dominated by "Europe, Japan, Israel and USA", you are probably referring two things:
1) in certain fields, products from these places does indeed hold a technological advantage over other places, though not necessarily the places you would thing. For example, US' ability in metal fabrication is one of the best in the world, particularly in mono-crystal casting of alloys.
2) On the other hand, while US does possess cutting edge technology in semiconductor fabrication, it is certainly not without peers. However, due to patents and technological standard establishment, US has a disproportional large presence in domestic chip market. This part is more about brand and establish presence rather than innovation.

I am not sure why Israel is on that list considering there is rather little from Israel worth mentioning aside from refurbished military hardware. However, it is not surprising that EU+Japan+US contribute to a lot of innovation-----duh, these three entities combined accounts for more than half of the world's GDP.

Like I said before, innovation is an incremental process that comes with the establishment of the corresponding industry. We have a saying in engineering---the newest stuff we come up with is half a century old at least. This is because it takes that long for theoretical breakthrough to make it to actual production. The theory for much of what we produce today is establish half a century ago, or even more and the theoretical stuff we come up today will take decades to even make to the draw board.

The effect of this is that when a company "innovates" it is generally not coming up new theories, but instead figuring out the implementation of a well established theory. In some sense, this means there is no theoretical advantage among contemporary peers and the only difference or "innovation" is in implementation and that generally correspond to repeatedly doing something. This is why most "innovations" comes from established industrial powers---not because they are "more innovative" or "chose to be innovative", but purely because they are making things and got more practice.
 
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Even if there is a growth rate difference of 3-4%, it takes only a half-century for Chinese assets to cross USA's whether public or private. It is a little harder with private wealth because as @Chinese-Dragon pointed out, large corporations have government investment in China. China can still target 6% growth rate. Where will USA bring a comparable growth from?
 
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American discourse is more open to the world than China's. You tend to hear American society stream of consciousness while China controls its publicly available discourse.

Just shows America is constantly vigiliant.

you clearly have never visited the chinese side of the internet.

the wealth distribution from the same report of credit suisse.
x axis is the net wealth, y axis is percentage of people in that wealth range for individual economies. opposite to what we were told by the media, according to this report, china's wealth distribution is very healthy, even can be described as the best in the economies in the figure.

View attachment 264941

keep in mind that map is total wealth, that is, assets, savings and debt.

so basically a new graduate making 100k a year but with 110k college loans that year would be considered bottom 1% in that map, of course that same graduate would shoot up to the top, pretty much by year 2 if he pays his debt. and the map is also distorted by the development of the economy, for instance it's pretty hard for an individual to get a bank loan in china, while its far easier to do that in the US, so more americans would appear to be in the bottom.
 
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the wealth distribution from the same report of credit suisse.
x axis is the net wealth, y axis is percentage of people in that wealth range for individual economies. opposite to what we were told by the media, according to this report, china's wealth distribution is very healthy, even can be described as the best in the economies in the figure.

View attachment 264941

You are mistaking this graph for that of income. This is wealth, not income, or capital flows. Many of those people in the far left of low wealth in North America would be students who are in net debt, yet their standard of living is far better than what many people can imagine.
 
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