3 Reasons the Philippines Will Suffer Because of Its South China Sea Case Against China

[jhungary]

I wonder how can such amateurish writer can write for the diplomat, maybe it's time for me to look for a job with the diplomat... I can wrote crap and get paid.

Seriously... The whole article based upon one thing (well, Actually 2) which is China is strong, and they can do whatever the hell they want, and if you dare cross them, then it will be your arse on the platter.

The problem is, is it the truth??

What if China lost the case? Are the writer suggest a "Sanction" of some sort from China to "punish" the Philippine? if so, how does it "Damage" the economy.

Look at it this way, with current situation bottom out, Philippine economic growth are looking at 6.7 to 7 %, and what would Chinese do if they lost the case? Exactly the same as it is already bottom out already, you cannot go any hostile then now. So, there will be no change or impact to Philippine Economy.

Also, the third point suggest US will not lend assistance to Philippine if and when SHTF, this is even more absurd then the second point. Which the writer would have no way to know what the US might do or Might not do to the Philippine and to and extend further assistance to other country are likely (Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and even Taiwan).

For a Chinese invasion of the islands, that effectively show the door the "Neutral" or "Peaceful Growth" indication to Chinese Rise, Then again, it will push all neutral or Chinese friendly state to isolate China, of course Chinese can use force and took those island, but they will lose more than the gain itself. If this is how the Chinese think they are gonna win, then they are walking to their own demise.

There will be no change after the arbitration in term of the physical situation. As the PAC are an non-binding motion, but if China did exactly what the article suggest, then China WILL be the biggest loser whether or not if the Philippine win the court case.

 

[sicsheep]

I wonder how can such amateurish writer can write for the diplomat, maybe it's time for me to look for a job with the diplomat... I can wrote crap and get paid.

Seriously... The whole article based upon one thing (well, Actually 2) which is China is strong, and they can do whatever the hell they want, and if you dare cross them, then it will be your arse on the platter.

The problem is, is it the truth??

What if China lost the case? Are the writer suggest a "Sanction" of some sort from China to "punish" the Philippine? if so, how does it "Damage" the economy.

Look at it this way, with current situation bottom out, Philippine economic growth are looking at 6.7 to 7 %, and what would Chinese do if they lost the case? Exactly the same as it is already bottom out already, you cannot go any hostile then now. So, there will be no change or impact to Philippine Economy.

Also, the third point suggest US will not lend assistance to Philippine if and when SHTF, this is even more absurd then the second point. Which the writer would have no way to know what the US might do or Might not do to the Philippine and to and extend further assistance to other country are likely (Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and even Taiwan).

For a Chinese invasion of the islands, that effectively show the door the "Neutral" or "Peaceful Growth" indication to Chinese Rise, Then again, it will push all neutral or Chinese friendly state to isolate China, of course Chinese can use force and took those island, but they will lose more than the gain itself. If this is how the Chinese think they are gonna win, then they are walking to their own demise.

There will be no change after the arbitration in term of the physical situation. As the PAC are an non-binding motion, but if China did exactly what the article suggest, then China WILL be the biggest loser whether or not if the Philippine win the court case.

so basically you just said by taking China to the Hague, the Philippines has nothing to gain, but can you be so sure they have nothing to lose?

sure they are poor as it is, but they just killed their chance of getting any better. lol

 

[dy1022]

I wonder how can such amateurish writer can write for the diplomat, maybe it's time for me to look for a job with the diplomat... I can wrote crap and get paid.

Seriously... The whole article based upon one thing (well, Actually 2) which is China is strong, and they can do whatever the hell they want, and if you dare cross them, then it will be your arse on the platter.

The problem is, is it the truth??

What if China lost the case? Are the writer suggest a "Sanction" of some sort from China to "punish" the Philippine? if so, how does it "Damage" the economy.

Look at it this way, with current situation bottom out, Philippine economic growth are looking at 6.7 to 7 %, and what would Chinese do if they lost the case? Exactly the same as it is already bottom out already, you cannot go any hostile then now. So, there will be no change or impact to Philippine Economy.

Also, the third point suggest US will not lend assistance to Philippine if and when SHTF, this is even more absurd then the second point. Which the writer would have no way to know what the US might do or Might not do to the Philippine and to and extend further assistance to other country are likely (Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and even Taiwan).

For a Chinese invasion of the islands, that effectively show the door the "Neutral" or "Peaceful Growth" indication to Chinese Rise, Then again, it will push all neutral or Chinese friendly state to isolate China, of course Chinese can use force and took those island, but they will lose more than the gain itself. If this is how the Chinese think they are gonna win, then they are walking to their own demise.

There will be no change after the arbitration in term of the physical situation. As the PAC are an non-binding motion, but if China did exactly what the article suggest, then China WILL be the biggest loser whether or not if the Philippine win the court case.

Yeah, China will be the biggest loser!

we are doing more in SCS now!

Please come to stop us and make China becomes the biggest loser!

China is the biggest trading parter for most nations in this world, open your eyes and face the fact.

the reality is nothing can stop China in SCS.

After we finished these projects in SCS, we'll kick the US army out of SCS forever.


See the case in AIIB, everyone kicked US as$ , see The deal of Iran finally signed.

and someone in here said China will be the biggest loser, Hahahahahaha....

 

[TaiShang]

Then again, it will push all neutral or Chinese friendly state to isolate China, of course Chinese can use force and took those island, but they will lose more than the gain itself. If this is how the Chinese think they are gonna win, then they are walking to their own demise.

How do you know?

 

[Place Of Space]

Thank you for your post.

China needs to see how other nations see it in context of the Chinese stand on South China Sea issue.

Why are you seeing it as a challenge ?


Low rank ?

It is definitely nervousness on part of China

Man, I said the world sympathize the weak. Why they sanctioned Iran and Korea for nuclear trial, but Pakistan could sucessfully possess nuclear weapons without seriouse sanction? You know its reason.

 

[jhungary]

so basically you just said by taking China to the Hague, the Philippines has nothing to gain, but can you be so sure they have nothing to lose?

sure they are poor as it is, but they just killed their chance of getting any better. lol

How will Philippine killed their chance of getting any better without China? They are currently doing it without China and get 6.7 to 7.4 % growth predicted in 2015. So what if China keep on stop importing Philippine? Does that mean they will go back to stone age?

Problem is, you, along with many Chinese member here think Chinese Market is too big to pass, it may be the case for established and developed country such as US, Australia or Canada, as they need to squeeze every bit of profit, the problem is, for country like Philippine, which solely rely on investment and export primary product, Chinese investment is just as good as from any country, on the other hand, I actually see Chinese losing the ability to lose money by refusing to invest in Philippine, and hence you can see country like South Korea and Japan pick up what Chinese left off, gladly.

Every country is interchangeable. As long as the right amount of money and right amount of time is invested, you will have the same result as doing business with ANYONE else. In this case, either China depend on Philippine to survive nor Philippine depend on China to survive. So what would they lose? Do tell

How do you know?

How do I know??

Just look at the situation now, the pretence have push Vietnam, Japan and Indonesia more into US camp and expanding their military capability greatly, all in the name of "Chinese Aggression" card played by the US.

So, you tell me are China naive enough to play further into the "Chinese Aggression" card and fuel the fire further and expect nothing change in return?

Noted that it is not US pull them further into their camp, it was Chinese who drive them into the US camp.

 

[TaiShang]

Just look at the situation now, the pretence have push Vietnam, Japan and Indonesia more into US camp and expanding their military capability greatly, all in the name of "Chinese Aggression" card played by the US.

So, you tell me are China naive enough to play further into the "Chinese Aggression" card and fuel the fire further and expect nothing change in return?

Indonesia, nope. We are cool. Last time I was there, they were busy blowing up Vietnamese boats.

Japan, has always been in the anti-China zone. Nothing new. They flared up Diaoyu Dai well before China started its island genesis program and ended up having the largest land mass in SCS. In merely one year. Japan has been itching for militarization, and the US has been asking Japan for that for long. Nothing new under the sun. Time flies.

Vietnam and Philippines, bilateral trade goes well. So, their sad souls are not to be counted.

Yes, in fact nothing changes in return, except some big players shuffle cards here and there. US in SCS; China in Central Asia...

Big powers, small countries.

gladly.

Don't be too glad. China and South Korea are doing very well, and having signed an FTA, that's by default, Japan's loss. The world is not always as simple as it seems to you.

they need to squeeze every bit of profit

We need average Joe to spend his last welfare dime on some product made in China. When Trump comes, he will take away all the welfare, after all.

Every country is interchangeable. As long as the right amount of money and right amount of time is invested, you will have the same result as doing business with ANYONE else. In this case, either China depend on Philippine to survive nor Philippine depend on China to survive. So what would they lose? Do tell

Exactly. Then it all comes down to which one is ready to risk it all. No body. So, back to square one. Japan and some sad countries teeming up, ah, nothing new. Especially after how the US messed up "the reset" with Russia. Can live with it. Sad Vietnamese and Filipinos in return for control of SCS. Even the natural gas and other minerals (which China has been exploring) would pay off the loss, if any.

 

[Place Of Space]

Indonesia, nope. We are cool. Last time I was there, they were busy blowing up Vietnamese boats.

Japan, has always been in the anti-China zone. Nothing new. They flared up Diaoyu Dai well before China started its island genesis program and ended up having the largest land mass in SCS. In merely one year. Japan has been itching for militarization, and the US has been asking Japan for that for long. Nothing new under the sun. Time flies.

Vietnam and Philippines, bilateral trade goes well. So, their sad souls are not to be counted.

Yes, in fact nothing changes in return, except some big players shuffle cards here and there. US in SCS; China in Central Asia...

Big powers, small countries.



Don't be too glad. China and South Korea are doing very well, and having signed an FTA, that's by default, Japan's loss. The world is not always as simple as it seems to you.



We need average Joe to spend his last welfare dime on some product made in China. When Trump comes, he will take away all the welfare, after all.



Exactly. Then it all comes down to which one is ready to risk it all. No body. So, back to square one. Japan and some sad countries teeming up, ah, nothing new. Especially after how the US messed up "the reset" with Russia. Can live with it.

Yes, China push Japan, Philippines to US camp (actually they were never out the camp), but America push China into Russia camp. lol. Mr.Xi and Mr. Putin both appraise present Sino-Russia relationship is the best in ever history.

 

[Cossack25A1]

It is not the case one Island. If China won this, the aggressive attitude, power and claim for the whole Island in China Sea, the other country will find them self in bad and confused position.

Not to mention that if China wins, post-WW2 international law will be seen as "ineffective", and that the world never learned anything from what had happened in the last century.

The current international law were created to prevent future conflicts that would lead to another total war in global scale, but if the said law will be seen as ineffective, the only logical conclusion is that more territorial issues with some leading to a shooting war, and before we know it, everyone is now fighting in WW3.

 

[sicsheep]

Not to mention that if China wins, post-WW2 international law will be seen as "ineffective", and that the world never learned anything from what had happened in the last century.

yeah yeah, US invaded Iraq without UNSC approval, all wars not approved by UNSC are considered illegal.

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in September 2004 that: "From our point of view and the UN Charter point of view, it [the war] was illegal."

 

[Cossack25A1]

yeah yeah, US invaded Iraq without UNSC approval, all wars not approved by UNSC are considered illegal.

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in September 2004 that: "From our point of view and the UN Charter point of view, it [the war] was illegal."

And your country is planning the same thing. I guess China is jealous that US could "screw the rules".

 

[jhungary]

Indonesia, nope. We are cool. Last time I was there, they were busy blowing up Vietnamese boats.

Japan, has always been in the anti-China zone. Nothing new. They have been itching for militarization, and the US has been asking Japan for that for long. Nothing new under the sun.

Vietnam and Philippines, bilateral trade goes well. So, their sad souls are not to be counted.

Nobody said Indonesia and China is not cool, but China have underestimate the Indonesian concern over SCS. Do you even know Indoesnia have sign an understanding for strategic partnership with the US and have the framework done by 2020?

http://csis.org/files/publication/130917_Hiebert_USIndonesiaPartnership_WEB.pdf

and you should not discount what Vietnam and Philippine can do, China is not that big to pass over any regional relationship. Especially the one with a land border with China

Yes, in fact nothing change in return except some big players shuffle cards here and there. US in SCS; China in Central Asia...

US is always in SCS, and Chinese influence is actually decreasing in Central Asia, which traditionally a camp for Russia. The only biggest Central Asia allied the Chinese have is Burma, which well, you can look at the news today.

Big powers, small countries.

There are no BIG power, only naïve people think that. US is big enough, what can they do beside stepping over other people land and kill a bunch of them? At the end of the day, they still have to go back home. You think China will be any different?

Don't be too glad. China and South Korea are doing very well, and having signed an FTA, that's by default, Japan's loss. The world is not always as simple as it seems to you.

No, you are the one that think the world is simple

What did signing FTA means politically? Nothing, Korea have sign FTA to many other country, including United States. The only thing it does is, it let you buy Samsung Galaxy cheaper. that's it.

Investment and Politic is completely different thing You can have FTA with South Korea, does that mean you can push US troop out of Republic of Korea

And I don't understand why it is Japanese loss if China sign FTA with South Korea, they are competitor, not an cooperation.

We need average Joe to spend his last welfare dime on some product made in China. When Trump comes, he will take away all the welfare, after all.

As I said many time here, Chinese product is not as cheap as used to be. and quickly losing appeal.

Also, production cost in China have risen significantly, the west and most part of the world are now moving manufacturing base from China anyway.

Exactly. Then it all comes down to which one is ready to risk it all. No body. So, back to square one. Japan and some sad countries teeming up, ah, nothing new. Especially after how the US messed up with the reset with Russia. Can live with it.

Just remember this, what happened in China can happen with ANYBODY, you just need the right investment in the right time. try to think otherwise is just fooling themselves. and if you pass over the cooperation between Japan and "some sad Country" then one day you will be the one who cried over this. This had happened many, many time with the US, now you think China is immune. lol

 

[dy1022]

It's time for China teams up with our Russian friends to do something to Kick US' As$ in somewhere else again!

 

[Place Of Space]

Not to mention that if China wins, post-WW2 international law will be seen as "ineffective", and that the world never learned anything from what had happened in the last century.

China is main founder of post-WWII world law. The world gave UN cecurity council to China because China made huge contributions during WWII. Learn history, it's Japan occupied Philippines in the war, it's Japan was defeated endly. At the moment it's worthless to talk this I know. You always thought Chinese occupied and killed Filipinos during WWII right?

 

[Cossack25A1]

China is main founder of post-WWII world law. The world gave UN cecurity council to China because China made huge contributions during WWII. Learn history, it's Japan occupied Philippines in the war, it's Japan was defeated endly. At the moment it's worthless to talk this I know. You always thought Chinese occupied and killed Filipinos during WWII right?

Last time I check the history books, it was the Republic of China (or Taiwan if you prefer) that is one of the main founders, not the People's Republic of China.