2014 Indian Elections Exit polls in PDF !

[ajtr]

Sadly majority in India are youths.

so what happened to this young majority in 2009?

 

[Arav_Rana]

BJP is going through internal confusion whether to have Sushma or Modi as candidate.
They will wait till last to announce their candidates.

Internal confusion is because we all know that minority never vote for country interest.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

so what happened to this young majority in 2009?

People preferred that MMS is way better than Advani. Advani was clearly indecentin his remarks of our PM, particularly when our PM was respected all over the world.
Moreover he bought the Nuclear Deal and the party had an honest man at the helm.
This term however have many scandals.

However saying this, polls here will not reflect the ground reality.

 

[ajtr]

People preferred that MMS is way better than Advani. Advani was clearly indecentin his remarks of our PM, particularly when our PM was respected all over the world.
Moreover he bought the Nuclear Deal and the party had an honest man at the helm.
This term however have many scandals.

Still BJP is not able to sort out its leadership crisis and cong. is comfortably poised in this matter.

However saying this, polls here will not reflect the ground reality.

but it wont translate in votes.thats what matter.howerver hard you keep on shouting on net.What matters is the push of button at polling booth.

 

[arp2041]

@arp2041 ur views?

Well IMHO, it will not be as easy as a simple voting on PDF & whoever wins, wins the GE of 2014, there are many important things to be considered before we can come to any conclusion:

1. One of The most important date vis-a-vis the GE of 2014 is December 20, 2012, when the results of HP & Guj VS elections will be announced, if BJP wins in both (certain in Guj, not sure about HP) than it will certainly have effect at the center as this will confirm an anti-congress wave in India. Now no one doubt if BJP or we can say MODI will win Gujarat again, but the real question is about the margin with which he wins, last time he won 117/182 seats, if he get the same nos. or more than surely he is booking the ticket of Delhi & giving the CMship of Guj to some other trusted person, he will than have more say in the national/parliamentary board of the BJP since winning third time in a row & that too with 2/3 majority is not at all an easy job.

2. I heard BJP president Nitin Gadkari say in "Agenda Aaj Tak" conclave that BJP will not declare the PM candidate, which i think is a good move by the BJP since declaring Modi as PM candidate can go either way for the BJP, what BJP can do instead is to give Modi the command of 2014 elections as congress has given it to Rahul. If BJP succeeds in getting 200+ seats (not an easy task as highest tally of BJP till now is 190 seats under ABVP) than forming a govt. at center under Modi will be an easy job, but if they get anywhere b/w 160-200 than getting allies under Modi's PMship will not be easy so anyone of the Sushma, Arun, Nitish trio can get the top job & Modi can get either the HM or FM (he may be than deputy PM or no. 2 in the govt.), i m ruling out Advani as he is already 84 so Indian youth will not like him to be the PM.

3. Kejriwal factor - this will be important to watch, since both BJP & Kejriwal will target the voters who are angry with the congress, now Kejriwal will not win any LS seat but he can cut BJP votes & inturn give a victory to congress, as the MNS did in Maharashtra in 2009:

now MNS didn't win any seat in 2009 LS elections but it spoiled SS-BJP chances of winning on as much as 9 seats where the combined MNS, SS/BJP votes are more than congress, thus congress won on fight b/w MNS & SS. Same can happen with BJP. What impact does Kejriwal have on 2014 elections could be seen as early as next year in Delhi elections.

4. Crucial State elections next year or SEMI-FINAL - MP, Chatisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Karnataka & many NE states will go to elections next year, this will be the semi final for the big FINAL & whoever wins will have good chances in 2014.

I m not counting NE states as they don't count much as far as GE are concerned, but other 5 big state elections will have direct impact on 2014:

MP - I am an MPian, i can assure u that BJP is winning here as they don't offer any alternative to Shivraj Singh Chauhan, the only thing to watch will be the margin of victory.

Chatisgarh - Again Raman Singh has done a good job there & congress don't have any alternative for him, again BJP winning there.

Delhi - Sheila Dikshit is the face of development there but the question will be can she win the 4th time, again Kejriwal factor will play a crucial role, i would not like to speculate.

Rajasthan - If BJP do unite under Vasundara raje than BJP do have a slight edge over the congress b'coz of corruption under the congress rule, but the election will be a tough fight.

Karnataka - BJP has only to blame itself for the NATAK of karnataka, i don't think they now stand any chance of regaining the state as Yedurrapa has formed his own party, we can very well get a hung assembly there, with congress having a chance of forming govt.

5. BJP have to get more allies in NDA if it wants to win the 2014 elections - TMC, AIADMK, TDP,etc. can very much join the NDA if BJP tries.

I will say that either NDA will win with a majority in 2014 (PM's job can go to anyone) or there will be hung assembly with NDA as the largest alliance & BJP emerging as the largest party, but u never know anything can happen in this 1 & a half year & u can very well see UPA-3 under Rahul at the center.

 

[Roybot]

I would like to see BJP under Arun Jaitley PMshp, and Narendra Modi as Home and Defence Minister.

 

[blood]

People forget corruption issues too easily, nowadays everybody forgot about 2G scandal. Even Anna movement is on backburner.

the recent poll debacles of congress and the worst defeat which DMK faced in tamil nadu is a clear cut indicator that people have not forgot 2g

 

[Doctor Death]

Here's my analysis,PDF Indians are even more pro BJP than Gujaratis.
Latest exit polls show than 45-49% of Gujaratis voted for BJP.

 

[arp2041]

BREAKING NEWS - Headlines today predict easy win for MODI (118-128 seats in Gujarat):

| Video | Headlines Today's post-poll survey predicts easy win for Modi | Gujarat Assembly Elections 2012 Videos | - India Today

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Well IMHO, it will not be as easy as a simple voting on PDF & whoever wins, wins the GE of 2014, there are many important things to be considered before we can come to any conclusion:

1. One of The most important date vis-a-vis the GE of 2014 is December 20, 2012, when the results of HP & Guj VS elections will be announced, if BJP wins in both (certain in Guj, not sure about HP) than it will certainly have effect at the center as this will confirm an anti-congress wave in India. Now no one doubt if BJP or we can say MODI will win Gujarat again, but the real question is about the margin with which he wins, last time he won 117/182 seats, if he get the same nos. or more than surely he is booking the ticket of Delhi & giving the CMship of Guj to some other trusted person, he will than have more say in the national/parliamentary board of the BJP since winning third time in a row & that too with 2/3 majority is not at all an easy job.

2. I heard BJP president Nitin Gadkari say in "Agenda Aaj Tak" conclave that BJP will not declare the PM candidate, which i think is a good move by the BJP since declaring Modi as PM candidate can go either way for the BJP, what BJP can do instead is to give Modi the command of 2014 elections as congress has given it to Rahul. If BJP succeeds in getting 200+ seats (not an easy task as highest tally of BJP till now is 190 seats under ABVP) than forming a govt. at center under Modi will be an easy job, but if they get anywhere b/w 160-200 than getting allies under Modi's PMship will not be easy so anyone of the Sushma, Arun, Nitish trio can get the top job & Modi can get either the HM or FM (he may be than deputy PM or no. 2 in the govt.), i m ruling out Advani as he is already 84 so Indian youth will not like him to be the PM.

3. Kejriwal factor - this will be important to watch, since both BJP & Kejriwal will target the voters who are angry with the congress, now Kejriwal will not win any LS seat but he can cut BJP votes & inturn give a victory to congress, as the MNS did in Maharashtra in 2009:

now MNS didn't win any seat in 2009 LS elections but it spoiled SS-BJP chances of winning on as much as 9 seats where the combined MNS, SS/BJP votes are more than congress, thus congress won on fight b/w MNS & SS. Same can happen with BJP. What impact does Kejriwal have on 2014 elections could be seen as early as next year in Delhi elections.

4. Crucial State elections next year or SEMI-FINAL - MP, Chatisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Karnataka & many NE states will go to elections next year, this will be the semi final for the big FINAL & whoever wins will have good chances in 2014.

I m not counting NE states as they don't count much as far as GE are concerned, but other 5 big state elections will have direct impact on 2014:

MP - I am an MPian, i can assure u that BJP is winning here as they don't offer any alternative to Shivraj Singh Chauhan, the only thing to watch will be the margin of victory.

Chatisgarh - Again Raman Singh has done a good job there & congress don't have any alternative for him, again BJP winning there.

Delhi - Sheila Dikshit is the face of development there but the question will be can she win the 4th time, again Kejriwal factor will play a crucial role, i would not like to speculate.

Rajasthan - If BJP do unite under Vasundara raje than BJP do have a slight edge over the congress b'coz of corruption under the congress rule, but the election will be a tough fight.

Karnataka - BJP has only to blame itself for the NATAK of karnataka, i don't think they now stand any chance of regaining the state as Yedurrapa has formed his own party, we can very well get a hung assembly there, with congress having a chance of forming govt.

5. BJP have to get more allies in NDA if it wants to win the 2014 elections - TMC, AIADMK, TDP,etc. can very much join the NDA if BJP tries.

I will say that either NDA will win with a majority in 2014 (PM's job can go to anyone) or there will be hung assembly with NDA as the largest alliance & BJP emerging as the largest party, but u never know anything can happen in this 1 & a half year & u can very well see UPA-3 under Rahul at the center.

Ur facts are more the way correct. Modi have mesmerised the people of India to some extent with his development of Gujarat, which is now the 5th largest economy of India under him.
There is also the possibility of ADMK supporting Modi alone, but not any other candidates.
AAP will certainly eat into the votes of Congress atleast in Northern States.
As u have said, we might have interesting outcome in 2014.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@arp2041 @jbgt90 @tvsram1992 @Abingdonboy ur views?

Sir I'm not all the clued up on these things but from the way I see it MMS has continually stated he will not run for election in 2014 and is retiring in 2014 so that is a given. Rahul Gandhi is far too inexperienced and unqualified for such a job. Modi has his skeletons and shouldn't be given such a prestigious post, maybe a ministry.

I just hope whoever gets in does not try and undo all the good work done before them ie FDI and takes India foreword with more reforms and stability. You can't help but feel the BJP deserve a go as the UPA will have been in power for getting on 10 years. But the BJP must stay true and reform and grow India not get into the needless bickering of old.

Let's wait and see.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Sir I'm not all the clued up on these things but from the way I see it MMS has continually stated he will not run for election in 2014 and is retiring in 2014 so that is a given. Rahul Gandhi is far too inexperienced and unqualified for such a job. Modi has his skeletons and shouldn't be given such a prestigious post, maybe a ministry.

I just hope whoever gets in does not try and undo all the good work done before them ie FDI and takes India foreword with more reforms and stability. You can't help but feel the BJP deserve a go as the UPA will have been in power for getting on 10 years. But the BJP must stay true and reform and grow India not get into the needless bickering of old.

Let's wait and see.

I am just too much young to be burdened with the title of 'sir'
And ur views are very correct.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

so BJP have got 28 votes to UPA's 10.
Majority here atleast support Modi for PM !

 

[Sashan]

I thought about it. But I really didnt think Jaitley have the appeal as Modi or Sushma has..



And ur troll game have no choices.

It is not about the appeal - It has more to do with how a person can manage the various coalition partners at the center. That is a big negative for Modi. He can do well at the state level - just like what JJ or Mamta can do considering the sway they have in their respective states. But come to center - if one cannot make compromises and take along everyone or have convincing power, one can't be successful. That is where I doubt Modi as he is literally a dictator who has its ways in Gujarat.

Beyond that, within BJP there are 3 leaders who can be a PM - Advani, Sushma and Jaitley. Among these, Jaitley is a proven planner and strategist - the one who is exactly needed for India.

Beyond that, I would say if you are ruling out Jaitley, then you are more subjective than being objective.

Jaitley will do good as bjp spokesperson in studios than as minister.He doesnt have that leadership charisma.BJP candidate from central leadership can be sushma ,yashwant sinha or jaswant singh.

My response above(to Rajaraja Chola) holds good on why Jaitley would be a better PM candidate.

 

[ajtr]

It is not about the appeal - It has more to do with how a person can manage the various coalition partners at the center. That is a big negative for Modi. He can do well at the state level - just like what JJ or Mamta can do considering the sway they have in their respective states. But come to center - if one cannot make compromises and take along everyone or have convincing power, one can't be successful. That is where I doubt Modi as he is literally a dictator who has its ways in Gujarat.

Beyond that, within BJP there are 3 leaders who can be a PM - Advani, Sushma and Jaitley. Among these, Jaitley is a proven planner and strategist - the one who is exactly needed for India.

Beyond that, I would say if you are ruling out Jaitley, then you are more subjective than being objective.



My response above(to Rajaraja Chola) holds good on why Jaitley would be a better PM candidate.

there was once a debate i remember on lokpal bill in rajya sbabha..Jately gave good speech..He clearly pointed out y govt is indecisive in most matters is that it has more lawyers as minister than a politician or a leader.infact he was honest enough to count himself in that lawyer crowd.....now you can make better judgement about his leadership which he himself is doubtful about.