US aircraft carrier group deployed for ‘routine patrols’ in S. China Sea

[jhungary]

There always a way out of any conflict when you allow the opponent breathing room to deescalated the situation, those island no longer reef and rock under sea tide when placement of Chinese on those artificial island are the de facto of China control of territory, 1st Chinese government will only respond to China population demand. China burned the money and sweat to build those island just to walk away because of the naval threat from the US? That will never happen. Best way to allow China government diplomacy take it course to broker a deal between all claimant that can satisfy all side that will be the best outcome to all party involve. I don't think China will surrender their claim of SCS because of the strategic interests for China to give up their claim.

I am actually not interested in what China can do or what China will do. That's depends on the government of China, I am merely saying a War, nuclear or not, with the US, China is going to end in losing side no matter how you see it.

At the begining, you said China will defend these island f attack, I simply ask how you suppose China to defend these island when attacked? Island defence require a large Navy to make more room for strategic depth, and in traditional military case, you are looking at 4 times bigger than your opponent Navy. To fend off attack at all 4 possible direction (N, W, E, S) and at this stage, US is about 8 times bigger (if not more) than Chinese Navy, there are no foreseeable way China can resupply these island by seas. Hence I ask, how do you suggest CHina defending these island?

They can take care of it diplomatically, they can take care of it internally, they can take care of it via a fight, again, these does not conern me at all.

Since your a military professional, you should know the importance of control the sea lane within your back yard?

Look, what you want is one thing, what you can do is another, and what is the world repsonse would be a third angle.

You can go impose this and that on anywhere in this world, the problem is can you do it. There are 8 entry point to enter and exit the South China Seas.
1.Between Taipei and Chinese Coast at the Taiwan Strait,
2.under Tainam between Philippine and Taiwan in Philippine Sea,
3.Above Luzon at Philippine Seas
4/5. Both entry around Palawan (North and South)
6.South of Bulanbulan Island
7.Java Sea
8. Malacca Strait

China can literally say they want to ban Submarine in South China Seas, but how? Chinese navy is small, it's impossible to patrol the whole SCS 24 hours a days to secure the sea, the only way China can enforce this order (if this actually been made) is to secure all 8 entry points 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. That mean you will need to break it down to 16 group of ships to secure these entry point all day. How many ship China have at this moment? Doing so, will stress the PLAN to extreme and what the PLAN will do is nothing other than going between these 8 entry point to port in China.......

And then they may not be able to detect the sub at all, as most of Chinese navy have is old ship, not many 052D running around as of now.

 

[phancong]

I am actually not interested in what China can do or what China will do. That's depends on the government of China, I am merely saying a War, nuclear or not, with the US, China is going to end in losing side no matter how you see it.

At the begining, you said China will defend these island f attack, I simply ask how you suppose China to defend these island when attacked? Island defence require a large Navy to make more room for strategic depth, and in traditional military case, you are looking at 4 times bigger than your opponent Navy. To fend off attack at all 4 possible direction (N, W, E, S) and at this stage, US is about 8 times bigger (if not more) than Chinese Navy, there are no foreseeable way China can resupply these island by seas. Hence I ask, how do you suggest CHina defending these island?

They can take care of it diplomatically, they can take care of it internally, they can take care of it via a fight, again, these does not conern me at all.





Look, what you want is one thing, what you can do is another, and what is the world repsonse would be a third angle.

You can go impose this and that on anywhere in this world, the problem is can you do it. There are 8 entry point to enter and exit the South China Seas.
1.Between Taipei and Chinese Coast at the Taiwan Strait,
2.under Tainam between Philippine and Taiwan in Philippine Sea,
3.Above Luzon at Philippine Seas
4/5. Both entry around Palawan (North and South)
6.South of Bulanbulan Island
7.Java Sea
8. Malacca Strait

China can literally say they want to ban Submarine in South China Seas, but how? Chinese navy is small, it's impossible to patrol the whole SCS 24 hours a days to secure the sea, the only way China can enforce this order (if this actually been made) is to secure all 8 entry points 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. That mean you will need to break it down to 16 group of ships to secure these entry point all day. How many ship China have at this moment? Doing so, will stress the PLAN to extreme and what the PLAN will do is nothing other than going between these 8 entry point to port in China.......

And then they may not be able to detect the sub at all, as most of Chinese navy have is old ship, not many 052D running around as of now.

That would be so, then let it play out. China will not relent their claim to the SCS, no matter how much of a threat China already build and have Chinese live on those island. Nuclear war nobody win.

That would be so, then let it play out. China will not relent their claim to the SCS, no matter how much of a threat China already build and have Chinese live on those island. Nuclear war nobody win.

China build up their navy to control the SCS within the 1st island chain, this task easily achieve for China because of China own military industry.

 

[TaiShang]

China builds, US protects. After all, the fuel, maintenance and personnel costs are not paid from our hard-earned tax money.

I think this is a working, win-win formula.

 

[Viet]

That would be so, then let it play out. China will not relent their claim to the SCS, no matter how much of a threat China already build and have Chinese live on those island. Nuclear war nobody win.


China build up their navy to control the SCS within the 1st island chain, this task easily achieve for China because of China own military industry.

You can play "who is the fool?" game in international waters, but Vietnam navy has no humor if Chinese send warships into her waters. You don't control the SCS. Nobody does. If anything it is the US boys who will make sure nobody takes control over it. Get it into your head.

 

[jhungary]

China is dumb to defend its territories from American aggression. So, what does provoking China for a fight over a few uninhabited rocks, that were claimed terra nullius by former Chinese dynasties, over 10,000 km away make America? stupid? moronic? retarded? insane? help me @jhungary - you're good with big words.

Was struggling to actually reply to this or simply hit report and get this over with, but seeing I have never interact before (At least not to my knowledge) so I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt.

IN SHORT, YES - CHINA IS DUMB TO TRY AND DEFEND THESE ISLAND.

In grand scheme of Chinese defence, to devote resource to these 7 islands defence, meaning you draw away both man power and resource in trying to make the defence work, China does not have a navy larger than the USN, meaning China can try to do hit and run on the US ship but the cannot break thru the US Navy blockade if war is to happens.

Island defence mean you will need to extend your strategic depth, due to the fact an island have limite land base to base your troop, hardware and supply. Meaning? You will need to extend an naval defence zone to extend your defence depth. And now, please do remind who has the bigger Navy, China or the US?

Another issue is resupply, island itself cannot sustain a fight if no supply flow in schedule. Which means supply from sea and air have to be flown in regularly, the Chinese Sealift Command and Airlift Command did not virtually exist, on the other hand, US can successfully blockade the Chinese Coast and enforce a No fly zone and Naval Exclusion Zone.on these Islands.

Without a Proper Navy to withstand a US Navy Blockade, yes, it is dumb to try and reinforce the position on these island, ask any Military Leader around the world, they will tell you the same thing.

I am not too bother to asnwer the other part of your question.

 

[TaiShang]

If anything it is the US boys who will make sure nobody takes control over it.

What do you know about the "US boys?"

 

[antonius123]

Was struggling to actually reply to this or simply hit report and get this over with, but seeing I have never interact before (At least not to my knowledge) so I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt.

IN SHORT, YES - CHINA IS DUMB TO TRY AND DEFEND THESE ISLAND.

In grant scheme of Chinese defence, to devote resource to these 7 islands defence, meaning you draw away both man power and resource in trying to make the defence work, China does not have a navy larger than the USN, meaning China can try to do hit and run on the US ship but the cannot break thru the US Navy blockade if war is to happens.

Island defence mean you will need to extend your strategic depth, due to the fact an island have limite land base to base your troop, hardware and supply. Meaning? You will need to extend an naval defence zone to extend your defence depth. And now, please do remind who has the bigger Navy, China or the US?

Another issue is resupply, island itself cannot sustain a fight if no supply flow in schedule. Which means supply from sea and air have to be flown in regularly, the Chinese Sealift Command and Airlift Command did not virtually exist, on the other hand, US can successfully blockade the Chinese Coast and enforce a No fly zone and Naval Exclusion Zone.on these Islands.

Without a Proper Navy to withstand a US Navy Blockade, yes, it is dumb to try and reinforce the position on these island, ask any Military Leader around the world, they will tell you the same thing.

I am not too bother to asnwer the other part of your question.

I dont think China is dumb. She must have calculated it carefully.

Her warfare with US will be assymetric warfare. Dont forget her anti access weapons.

 

[jhungary]

I dont think China is dumb. She must have calculated it carefully.

Her warfare with US will be assymetric warfare. Dont forget her anti access weapons.

.............

You cannot wage assymetric warfare if there are no indigenous population to cover your movement (they are all Chinese) and Us have a dedicated AirSea Battle Doctrine to deal with Chinese A2/AD weapons. A push and pull effect.

 

[antonius123]

.............

You cannot wage assymetric warfare if there are no indigenous population to cover your movement (they are all Chinese) and Us have a dedicated AirSea Battle Doctrine to deal with Chinese A2/AD weapons. A push and pull effect.

Why DF-21D, YJ-12, S-400, HQ-9, anti satelite missile require indigenous population?
What is US dedicated airsea battle doctrine to deal with A2/AD weapons?

 

[Slav Defence]

@52051
Avoid personal attacks on @gambit and stay on topic.

I am highly disappointed from both sides to see personal attacks(without colorful language) at each other.We are not at all interested that how old a person is, where he/she lives, what kind of lifestyle he/she has or is he/she about to die or not.Also, personal remarks such as calling each other as dumb, fool, pathetic or whatever to express the kind of disgust only because the other side disagrees with you.This notification is for both Americans and Chinese posters, avoid using personal remarks or colorful languages against one another.It only shows your annoyance and indecency to talk.

regards

 

[jhungary]

Why DF-21D, YJ-12, S-400, HQ-9, anti satelite missile require indigenous population?
What is US dedicated airsea battle doctrine to deal with A2/AD weapons?

Push and Pull effect........

You cannot position the missile in static mode. Otherwise you will be located and game over, meaning? Your missile need to be in constant movement. Or in the field, we called it "Scoop"

All movement needed to be consealed, and you can track the location of the missile before they were used by locating a few other things, such as people movement, truck/resupply movement etc. Usually you can blend the movement with non-uniformed personnel, but if they are all Chinese and there are literally no one living in these island, you can expect people, any people you can locate in the island is military personnel, follow them and you can follow the missile launcher.

Also, it's worth notice that Missile is a Point to Point attack weapon, it does not work if you are swamped. Every missile can only be used to attack one single point, and it can only be hit and missed. Set aside would DF-Whatever or any of the SAM works. It can only target 1 ship, 1 aircraft at a time, how are you going to deal with 24 or 48 aircarft/drone sorties attacking you at once? Or what about stealth? Or what about jammer?

Air/Sea Battle doctrine is a US military project to deal with A2AD weaponry, I have written an article about AirSea battle concept a few month back.

https://defence.pk/threads/stealth-vs-jammer-the-airsea-battle-concept.425875/

As I said somewhere in this post, just because Chinese are good at developing missile, that does not make it a wonder weapon. A Missile need to have good guidance system, and there are currently no guidance system are fool proof, do remember there are 5 stages on ISTAR type automatic guidance system for missile, all of them have to be functioning/foolproof to works. To defeat it tho, you only ever need to defeat one of the stage and your missile will fail. There is a reason why US and even Russia did not actually invest in these technology to begin with.

 

[Viet]

What do you know about the "US boys?"

"Bring the boys home!"

The boys are meant US soldiers. that was the banner the protesters hold during Vietnam war demonstrations.

 

[antonius123]

Push and Pull effect........

You cannot position the missile in static mode. Otherwise you will be located and game over, meaning? Your missile need to be in constant movement. Or in the field, we called it "Scoop"

All movement needed to be consealed, and you can track the location of the missile before they were used by locating a few other things, such as people movement, truck/resupply movement etc. Usually you can blend the movement with non-uniformed personnel, but if they are all Chinese and there are literally no one living in these island, you can expect people, any people you can locate in the island is military personnel, follow them and you can follow the missile launcher.

The problem is:
How US would be able to destroy those moving DF21D missile launcher located in China mainland? Remember the conflict will be limited conflict in South China Sea, not total war or nuclear war between China and US.

How US would be able to destroy YJ12, HQ-9, S-400 installed in type 52C/D without destroying those ships? and how does US Navy could approach those Chinese destroyer without risk being targeted with anti access missile (DF21/HQ/YJ12)?

Also, it's worth notice that Missile is a Point to Point attack weapon, it does not work if you are swamped. Every missile can only be used to attack one single point, and it can only be hit and missed. Set aside would DF-Whatever or any of the SAM works. It can only target 1 ship, 1 aircraft at a time, how are you going to deal with 24 or 48 aircarft/drone sorties attacking you at once? Or what about stealth? Or what about jammer?

From where US will launch those drones or aircraft sorties to attack Chinese navy?

You must launch them from carriers, and the carriers should get close enough to the target, and when the carriers are getting close they will be targeted with DF-21D, or DF-26, submarines.

Air/Sea Battle doctrine is a US military project to deal with A2AD weaponry, I have written an article about AirSea battle concept a few month back.

https://defence.pk/threads/stealth-vs-jammer-the-airsea-battle-concept.425875/

As I said somewhere in this post, just because Chinese are good at developing missile, that does not make it a wonder weapon. A Missile need to have good guidance system, and there are currently no guidance system are fool proof, do remember there are 5 stages on ISTAR type automatic guidance system for missile, all of them have to be functioning/foolproof to works. To defeat it tho, you only ever need to defeat one of the stage and your missile will fail. There is a reason why US and even Russia did not actually invest in these technology to begin with.

It is if we are assuming that DF-21D guidance system is made by stages. What if it is made in parallel or redundancy? It is rumoured the system involve quantum satellite. C4ISR is only for geo location while onboard guidance system is used for terminal phase. You will need to destroy the C4ISR system at first.

 

[Oldman1]

Well, it maybe easy to take out China's islands in SCS, but not so easy to survive the conseqence...

I dont think the american military planners want to pick a fight against China in SCS since they know their chance of winning is slim at best, I think all they count on is their nukes atm

We know China doesn't want to start a war whenever a U.S. Navy ship is patrolling in so called Chinese waters. Chances of winning is very slim for China. Bet you depend on nukes to win at the moment.

 

[jhungary]

The problem is:
how US would be able to destroy those moving DF21D missile launcher located in China mainland? remember the conflict will be limited conflict in sout china sea, not total war or nuclear war between China and US.

how US would be able to destroy yj12, HQ-9, S-400 installed in type 52C/D without destroying those ships? and how does US Navy could approach those chinese destroyer without risk being targetted with anti access missile (DF21/HQ/yj12)?

How? Did you actually read the article I wrote?

The combine effort of Navy and Air Force would be able to target those ADS, where the Air force would use their AWACS to scoop up those missile by tracking its movement, navy will then target those missile either by sub launch or surface launch Cruise Missile or bombs.

Then the US navy will take on the Chinese Navy while the Airforce is make short work on Chinese Launch site.

The Airforce will flew over the target area first, launch an Iron hand missile and eliminate the ADS threat with a combine of Jammer Aircraft, Drone and strike aircraft, then Long range bomber wil ltarget fix missile launcher site, and march in the Naval destoryer. Which will take care of Chinese Surface ships. Do remember Chinese is both lacking in number of Air and Sea asset.

From where US will launch those drones or aircraft sorties to attack chinese navy?

You must launch them from carriers, and the carriers should get close enough with the target, and when the carriers are getting close they will be targetted with DF-21D, or DF-26, submarines.

Why US need to launch drone or fighter from within the range of DF-whatever missile to begine with? When US have the most extensive aerial refuelling system?

Even without aerial refuelling, US Aircraft can reach maximum range outside the DF-21 or DF-26 Missile. Do bear in mind Superhornet with 3 Drop Tank (Which leave 4 Surface missile + 2 Aim-9 left ) can reach 3000 (2010 mile internal fuel + 1000 gal or 4000L external fuel which add another 900 mile) mile range without refuelling. Where as the DF-21 and DF-26 only have a maximum of 2500 mile range.

Also, US can launch aircarft from any airfield within Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Guam, Singapore, Diego Garcia. You don't just face the US naval Aviation, you also facing full might of USAF too.

It is if we are assuming that DF-21D guidance system is made by stages. What if it is made in pararell or redundancy? It is rumoured the system involve quantum satelite. C4ISR is only for geo location while onboard guidance system is used for terminal phase. You will need to destroy the C4ISR system at first.

You don't need to destroy ISTAR to defeat the guidance system, all you need is to fool them, and no, quantum satellite is not use like that in ISTAR. Satellite in generally are not suitable for ISTAR as you cannot get real time information fetch down to the user interface, the time delay make Satellite unsuitable for ISTAR function.

All of these I have already covered in my previous post here, I am not going to retypr all of the information.