Indian economy to reach $5 TRILLION by 2025: Morgan Stanley

[Stephen Cohen]

Indian economy to reach $5 trillion by 2025: Morgan Stanley

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ec...-trillion-by-2025-morgan-stanley_8533001.html

 

[Stephen Cohen]

India's USD 2.2 trillion economy makes it the seventh largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (and the third largest in PPP terms), but the country's per capita income is less significant

India's millennial population is a massive disruptive force and driven by this supportive demographics alongwith government's policy action, Indian economy is likely to reach USD 5 trillion by 2025, says a report.

India's USD 2.2 trillion economy makes it the seventh largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (and the third largest in PPP terms), but the country's per capita income is less significant. With a per capita income of USD 1,700, India ranks well behind some of the key emerging markets, like China, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico, and Turkey.

"We expect a confluence of supportive factors, led by demographics, government policy action, and globalisation, to lead to a sustained period of productive growth in the medium term," Morgan Stanley said in a research note adding "in our base case, we expect the Indian economy to reach USD 5 trillion by FY2025.

By financial year 2024-25, Morgan Stanley expects per capita income to rise 125 per cent to USD 3,650. The report said India's millennial population of 400 million is the largest in the world and is armed with around USD 180 billion in spending power and with high smartphone adoption and widespread availability of mobile broadband infrastructure, it will become a disruptive force faster than most businesses expect.

The population dynamics will therefore be a key force in shaping India's overall growth trajectory and also in shaping how product markets will develop as the preferences of the population evolve, Morgan Stanley said. The report, however, noted that the demographics factor alone is not sufficient for an acceleration in GDP growth. It is important that the working age population is adequately skilled to participate in a globalised competitive environment.

"The next leg of harnessing this young and better skilled population would require creation of adequate employment opportunities, which is an opportunity and a challenge for India," it said.

 

[Deadpool]

Morgan Stanley said in a research note adding "in our base case, we expect the Indian economy to reach USD 5 trillion by FY2025.

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http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ec...n-stanley_8533001.html?utm_source=ref_article
Thank God for that. Its a base case scenario. We need to hit more than that.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Thank God for that. Its a base case scenario. We need to hit more than that.

There are many factors that need to come together
Political stability being the most important One

2019 elections become very crucial ; in this regard

 

[NirmalKrish]

Indian economy to reach $5 trillion by 2025: Morgan Stanley

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ec...-trillion-by-2025-morgan-stanley_8533001.html

Should be 7 trillion not 5, but it's a start! if we can account for the black money that is stashed aboard.

 

[Deadpool]

There are many factors that need to come together
Political stability being the most important One

2019 elections become very crucial ; in this regard

If GST and Labor Law Reforms are passed before then. It would be difficult for even Congress to f*ck our economic growth if it comes to power.

 

[Laozi]

MIND BOGGLING

Morgan Stanley estimating an Average GDP Growth of 11 percent for India for next 8 years

 

[NirmalKrish]

If GST and Labor Law Reforms are passed before then. It would be difficult for even Congress to f*ck our economic growth if it comes to power.

Congress is done and dusted!! rest assured... there is no hope for Congress to resurface... one Karnataka's government is taken away, the cards will collapse.

 

[Deadpool]

Congress is done and dusted!! rest assured... there is no hope for Congress to resurface... one Karnataka's government is taken away, the cards will collapse.

No.
There is a very real possibility of all other parties coming together for 2019 elections. On top of that people are not particularly singing praises about the work that Modi has done in these last 3 years. The opinion on the streets is very divided.

In such a scenario, You would be unwise to count off the Congress.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

If GST and Labor Law Reforms are passed before then

GST is coming from 1 JULY this year

Labour Reforms are like a red rag ; they create a huge social and political upheaval

SO it is better to wait on it till the Growth momentum Itself creates such conditions
where labour can easily move from one sector to another

We also need a large scale Skill development and Retraining programme

This has begun but a lot needs to be done further

 

[Deadpool]

MIND BOGGLING

Morgan Stanley estimating an Average GDP Growth of 11 percent for India for next 8 years

That includes inflation as well. Not real GDP growth.

 

[NirmalKrish]

No.
There is a very real possibility of all other parties coming together for 2019 elections. On top of that people are not particularly singing praises about the work that Modi has done in these last 3 years. The opinion on the streets is very divided.

In such a scenario, You would be unwise to count off the Congress.

They are divided because the measures are just rolled out, it needs some time to bear fruits, by 2019 the situation would have changed, all except for TN, seriously we screwed ourselves royally with SASI government and Manarkudi mafia ruling it. which is worse than Congress.

 

[Deadpool]

GST is coming from 1 JULY this year

Labour Reforms are like a red rag ; they create a huge social and political upheaval

SO it is better to wait on it till the Growth momentum Itself creates such conditions
where labour can easily move from one sector to another

We also need a large scale Skill development programme

This has begun but a lot needs to be done further

I know what Govt has said about when GST will come. I also know that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.
The 3 laws of GST still need to be passed by the Parliament in the budget session (March) for GST to get implemented from this year.

Secondly, the labor reforms are indeed a red flag. Which is why only someone like Modi can take it up. We need to change the British era and Nehru era maze of contradictory maze of regulations so that his make-in-India scheme succeeds. A whole lot of foreign manufacturing will come to India if this augean stable of laws is cleaned up.

Which is why I said, if he succeeds in bringing these 2 reforms - GST and Labor law. Even some one like Congress will find it extremely difficult to turn the clock back and mess it up.

 

[Śakra]

Idk if this guy wins we could be a $1 trillion economy by 2025

 

[Laozi]

That includes inflation as well. Not real GDP growth.

Ok Add 5 % percent Inflation and GDP has to grow at 16 percent

Now how much you want to Add or deduct for value of rupee vs dollar ?