Why going ' MAD ' won't work for India ?

[Thəorətic Muslim]

@skysthelimit nice analyst.

But what if, both countries to say you attack us we'll nuke you.

Even if one out of 20 missiles fired ...hits Bombay
It will create an instant havoc .

Not to mention FDI going overseas in a matter of seconds.

This article, like most others, and like most Pakistani members here, makes the unwarranted assumption that India's leadership is more scared of Pak's nukes than Pakistani leadership is scared of India's.What if Pakistan has or will have the capability to finish India as well? (And get finished too, of course.) Then will the calculations change?

IR isnt just a matter of bi-lateral relations.

Lets say Pakistan nukes an Indian Military Unit.

Scenario 1: India nukes back
1.A Tactical Nuke on a Pakistani Military Unit --> question of retaliation?
1.B Nuke a Pakistani City, --> Pakistan responds with MAD against Indian Cities
Scenario 2: International Community pressures India not to retaliate in promise for: Aid, more FDI, sanctions against Pakistan, Missile Defense system, incentives of being on International Organizations (Security Council, Economic Councils, more influence on IMF/World Bank), and even denuclearize Pakistan

Scenario 3: The Indian Military is given free reign to take over Pakistan. No nukes from India.
3.A Take over Punjab
3.B Take Sindh
3.C Take Baluchistan
3.D Take Kashmir
3.E Take Karachi
3.F Take over Islamabad/ Rawalpindi
3.G Carpet bombing? o.0

Scenario 4: Spec Ops swoop in an take of Nuclear sites, highyl unlikey, but possible.

But the most realistic Scenario is this: International Community lets India and Pakistan duke it out, but in constant contact with each other so that once 1 side is threatening to field nukes a cease-fire can take effect.

I agree that the assumption that Indian Politicians are scared of Pakistani Nukes is bull$h!t.
Pakistani Politicians need a Pakistan and Indian Politicians need an India, without them how will they preserve their family's wealth?

There is also allot of 2 level game involved.

On one side will you want to be remembered as the party/ person who let your country get nuked? Both nationally and internationally?

The Indian Military will never forgive the political party for not responding to such a catastrophic attack. Will the People?
Will a Pakistani Leader be willing to be remembered as the person who let his military forces get over-run and country taken over because he/she refused field nukes?

On the other side, do you want to show your country as a 'responsible' nuclear armed state. Will you use nukes as a first resort? Or even when your forces are being overrun?

But lets face reality;
Our political system is a p.o.s.
Politicians care for only $
Militarys are held as the National defenders in the view of the people

The MAD still works for US and Russia .

They're not next to eachother.

And contrary to public believes, Sarah Palin cannot see Russia from her back balcony.

 

[lightoftruth]

It's our policy ,we are not bounded by any organisation.

we follow it or debunk it at the circumstances is completely dependent on us.

does anyone think ppl will follow this policy as a pledge in command structure ? that they will not attack with nukes if they fear a genuine nuke threat ?

NFU gives us good posture globally,specially against china so let it be.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

MAD works for nobody india or otherwise.Fact.

 

[SQ8]

My statements may have hurt your feelings . My intention is to state likely possibility that only thing that can dissuade Pakistani leadership from taking drastic step of launching nuclear attack will be assured destruction of Pakistan due to massive retaliation from India .

I am no way suggesting that this should happen .

Nuclear weapons for the last 6 decades remained weapons of peace ....due to MAD doctrine

I hope that this will remain so in case of India- Pakistan too .

I have already stated why I feel that India will likely survive Nuclear exchange but Pakistan won't .

Sheer size of country and population, economy , over seas population favors India . This is a cold fact in my opinion .

The idea that India will survive a nuclear attack is quite hilarious in my view as well. What India exactly will survive? what form? What machinery will be able to hold on and rebuild after a Pakistani strike. This is what Pakistan games on. WE KNOW WE WILL ALL DIE AND BE DESTROYED.. you seem to think that is lost upon us.
But what is lost upon you is that we have worked hard to ensure that when our strikes are done, there is little semblance to be left of India as a nation and state that any "victory" being declared would sound frivolous and idiotic.

This isnt a case of a big guy beating a little guy with punches and coming out on top with a few bruised. Here both have guns and both will shoot for the heart. India will burn alongside us if heaven forbid nuclear war does happen.

 

[Indo-guy]

The idea that India will survive a nuclear attack is quite hilarious in my view as well. What India exactly will survive? what form? What machinery will be able to hold on and rebuild after a Pakistani strike. This is what Pakistan games on. WE KNOW WE WILL ALL DIE AND BE DESTROYED.. you seem to think that is lost upon us.
But what is lost upon you is that we have worked hard to ensure that when our strikes are done, there is little semblance to be left of India as a nation and state that any "victory" being declared would sound frivolous and idiotic.

This isnt a case of a big guy beating a little guy with punches and coming out on top with a few bruised. Here both have guns and both will shoot for the heart. India will burn alongside us if heaven forbid nuclear war does happen.

I am no way saying that India will come out unscathed from nuclear war ...
I am saying it will survive the nuclear war -severely crippled ( but can recover from it slowly )

It is nearly impossible for Pakistan to destroy country of India's size ....

If you talk about China ...it's different scenario altogether .

It may be difficult for you guys to digest the fact that no matter how massive Pakistani first strike may be ...India will still survive
but Pakistan won't survive Indian retaliatory strike ...

India's territorial size , population , economy allows it to sustain the immense shock of nuclear war .

Pakistan is too small to survive massive Indian retaliation .

You may not accept this ...but it's very likely possibility !!!

 

[SQ8]

I am no way saying that India will come out unscathed from nuclear war ...
I am saying it will survive the nuclear war -severely crippled ( but can recover from it slowly )

It is nearly impossible for Pakistan to destroy country of India's size ....

If you talk about China ...it's different scenario altogether .

It may be difficult for you guys to digest the fact that no matter how massive Pakistani first strike may be ...India will still survive
but Pakistan won't survive Indian retaliatory strike ...

India's territorial size , population , economy allows it to sustain the immense shock of nuclear war .

Pakistan is too small to survive massive Indian retaliation .

You may not accept this ...but it's very likely possibility !!!

I may not accept this, and you may not accept that India will not be able to survive either.
And that is that.

I have already stated, I know that Pakistan will not survive. But the weapons capability built up was to essentially ensure the capability of first and second strikes that ensure India will not "survive" either regardless of its size, population(more that will perish) , economy( not sure how irradiated water supply, destroyed economic centres still help a "economy").

Other than that, we can agree to disagree.

 

[Dillinger]

I am no way saying that India will come out unscathed from nuclear war ...
I am saying it will survive the nuclear war -severely crippled ( but can recover from it slowly )

It is nearly impossible for Pakistan to destroy country of India's size ....

If you talk about China ...it's different scenario altogether .

It may be difficult for you guys to digest the fact that no matter how massive Pakistani first strike may be ...India will still survive
but Pakistan won't survive Indian retaliatory strike ...

India's territorial size , population , economy allows it to sustain the immense shock of nuclear war .

Pakistan is too small to survive massive Indian retaliation .

You may not accept this ...but it's very likely possibility !!!

@Oscar isn't saying that India won't survive, he's saying 'The India we know will die'.

Although Oscar, Pakistan's posturing had a marked advantage when the powers that be here adopted a minimum state of readiness and a highly disjointed/amorphous doctrine. That has been changing since the last 2-3 years and will most assuredly undergo further changes (no, the "no first use" is not going anywhere, but its details will be delineated clearly, for example we will probably reserve the right to make a first strike on our own territory), it will be interesting to see how Pakistan will calibrate its policy as a result. Although I still hold that a shift towards tactical nukes for battlefield usage is a bad move, it defies the very notion of a state defending its citizens ALONG with its integrity.

 

[Indo-guy]

@Oscar isn't saying that India won't survive, he's saying 'The India we know will die'.

Although Oscar, Pakistan's posturing had a marked advantage when the powers that be here adopted a minimum state of readiness and a highly disjointed/amorphous doctrine. That has been changing since the last 2-3 years and will most assuredly undergo further changes (no, the "no first use" is not going anywhere, but its details will be delineated clearly, for example we will probably reserve the right to make a first strike on our own territory), it will be interesting to see how Pakistan will calibrate its policy as a result. Although I still hold that a shift towards tactical nukes for battlefield usage is a bad move, it defies the very notion of a state defending its citizens ALONG with its integrity.

As long as India survives ...
Off course coming out from nuclear war - India won't and can't remain same . Price of survival is neither simple nor small .

Tactical nuclear weapons are likely to reduce threshold of Nuclear war .

India has made amply clear that even use of tactical weapon will be treated in same line as strategic nuclear weapons and will invite massive response ( on paper at least ...how the then Indian leadership will work under pressure and crisis situation is matter of speculation )
In case of nuclear war , there will be immense international pressure on India . India must not wilt under international pressure .

last thing we want is Pakistan to get away with nuclear assault on India ....

India's posture must be therefore made crystal clear to Pakistan and world at large .

 

[SQ8]

@Oscar isn't saying that India won't survive, he's saying 'The India we know will die'.

Although Oscar, Pakistan's posturing had a marked advantage when the powers that be here adopted a minimum state of readiness and a highly disjointed/amorphous doctrine. That has been changing since the last 2-3 years and will most assuredly undergo further changes (no, the "no first use" is not going anywhere, but its details will be delineated clearly, for example we will probably reserve the right to make a first strike on our own territory), it will be interesting to see how Pakistan will calibrate its policy as a result. Although I still hold that a shift towards tactical nukes for battlefield usage is a bad move, it defies the very notion of a state defending its citizens ALONG with its integrity.

America, the nation that is bigger than most of us in terms of everything except population. Gamed this out, they also knew that their way of life, the misery that their people would have to endure after a nuclear war.. would make most prefer death. Even with all the territories and untouched nature in the US compared to our nations.

 

[Dillinger]

America, the nation that is bigger than most of us in terms of everything except population. Gamed this out, they also knew that their way of life, the misery that their people would have to endure after a nuclear war.. would make most prefer death. Even with all the territories and untouched nature in the US compared to our nations.

I am tempted though, as a fantasy, to gamble. It would be fitting if we destroyed each other. Hell I'd be reborn, hopefully not as a termite and on some other continent.

As long as India survives ...
Off course coming out from nuclear war - India won't and can't remain same . Price of survival is neither simple nor small .

Tactical nuclear weapons are likely to reduce threshold of Nuclear war .

India has made amply clear that even use of tactical weapon will be treated in same line as strategic nuclear weapons and will invite massive response ( on paper at least ...how the then Indian leadership will work under pressure and crisis situation is matter of speculation )
In case of nuclear war , there will be immense international pressure on India . India must not wilt under international pressure .

last thing we want is Pakistan to get away with nuclear assault on India ....

India's posture must be therefore made crystal clear to Pakistan and world at large .

India's posture can only be made clear once we draft a clear doctrine, lets see if the chappan inch chest changes that. Despite having voted in his favor I do not have any such hopes.

On the other hand, regardless of the leadership, a nuclear assault will never go unanswered, even if it is Sonia madam with her finger on the button.

 

[Indo-guy]

I am tempted though, as a fantasy, to gamble. It would be fitting if we destroyed each other. Hell I'd be reborn, hopefully not as a termite and on some other continent..

There is no heaven or hell
and there is no re birth or coming back

so you may as well give up your fantasy ....Lol

Because we all live this life only once ....

 

[Dillinger]

There is no heaven or hell
and there is no re birth or coming back

so you may as well give up your fantasy ....Lol

Because we all live this life only once ....

You're preaching to an atheist, still, that's what I'd be thinking (being born as a blonde bimbo in the land of the brave) when I press the button.

 

[Indo-guy]

On the other hand, regardless of the leadership, a nuclear assault will never go unanswered, even if it is Sonia madam with her finger on the button.

I hope this holds true in actual circumstances .
just hope suddenly our leadership won't be gripped with pacifist seizures of idealism and statesmanship to forgo Pakistani nuclear attack
or we won't mellow under international pressure .

 

[Dillinger]

I hope this holds true in actual circumstances .
just hope suddenly our leadership won't be gripped with pacifist seizures of idealism and statesmanship to forgo Pakistani nuclear attack
or we won't mellow under international pressure .

There won't be international pressure, there will be much screaming and flailing of hands but not much pressure. Most nations will shore up their reserves and start counting the beans.

 

[Indo-guy]

There won't be international pressure, there will be much screaming and flailing of hands but not much pressure. Most nations will shore up their reserves and start counting the beans.

Hell just with 26/11 there was such an immense international pressure on India and Pakistan .

In fact Pakistani leadership at one point of time agreed to dispatch ISI director to India just to pacify us under US pressure.

I do not agree with your contention that there won't be any International pressure ...